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After the resounding losses of Democrats up and down the ticket in Missouri on
November 8, 2016, it is clear that Missouri needs to take a different direction in the
operation of the Missouri Democratic Party. Democrats lost all statewide races, most
State Representative and State Senate elections in which the party actually chose to
field a candidate, and was unsuccessful in fielding off harmful constitutional
amendments, such as the Voter ID law.
These devastating losses can be attributed to a variety of causes, including:
1. The inability of the Democratic issues to resonate with voters in rural areas;
2. Lack of coordination between candidates and races to create a unified
Democratic ticket in all areas of the state;
3. Depressed turnout in African American and urban communities;
4. Lack of recruitment of candidates to field challengers in every legislative
district coupled with a lack of training and understanding of how to run a
campaign, file for election, raise money, pull turf, etc.. for new candidates
5. Inadequate staffing to support Democratic Committees across the state in
effectively educating and mobilizing voters;
6. Insufficient fundraising to be able to support candidates and combat dark
money going into opposing campaigns;
7. Lack of presence of the Democratic Party in off election years across the state;
1. The inability of the Democratic issues to resonate with voters in rural areas
and beyond
With a message of FDR-style economic populism, Bernie Sanders solidly won nearly
all rural counties in Missouri in the March 2016 Democratic Primary. In 1965,
manufacturing accounted for 53% of the economy. In 1979 at its peak, American was
the great manufacturing power in the world. However, for the past 40 years, our
industrial economy has been losing jobs at a rapid rate., Our economy has lost about
7.5 million manufacturing jobs nationally since the peak in 1979. By 1988,
manufacturing accounted for 39% of the economy. In the 2000s the decline in
manufacturing continued. During this time period, the U.S. lost some 5.7 million
manufacturing jobs. By 2004, it accounted for just 9% of the economy.
Rural areas and rust belt cities have seen dramatic declines in manufacturing in
particular. In this last election, they made their discontent evident. The Missouri
Democratic Party must have a rural engagement strategy from people who know how to
speak to rural voters.
Similarly, Reuters conducted a poll that reveals just how upset the American
people really are. Reuters has shown that
Also,
It is these bread-and-butter issues that are motivating American voters. These are
issues that are supported by the majority of voters and that Democrats can and
should win by championing. Millennials, the largest voting block in the country,
overwhelmingly endorse these policies, as well as, free college at public universities,
single-payer healthcare, and a Green New Deal.
The members of the displaced, white blue-collar class, who are the Trump
supporters and who were the original Democratic base, and the Millennials, who have a
40 % unemployment/underemployment rate, could form a coalition with the urban
African American and Hispanic Community who are twice as likely to be unemployed.
This coalition could form a voting block focused on economic issues. Manufacturing is
returning to the United States because innovations in AI and robotics technology have
made American-based manufacturing cost effective on the world market. Those
displaced from manufacturing and those who have been structurally unemployed need
to be trained for these new jobs that involve working with the robots. The collegeeducated Millennials need to be trained in the support positions that this new technology
requires.
2. Presenting a Unified Front Lack of coordination between candidates and
races so as to create a unified Democratic ticket in all areas of the State
In the 2016 election cycle The Democratic ticket never worked closely together in
the last months of the election. For the most part, five separate campaigns were run for
top-of-the-ticket offices rather than presenting a unified campaign, as had been done in
previous years with Missouri Democrats Bus Tours and unified messaging. There was a
significant drop in votes for Kander and Koster to the down ballot statewide candidates.
There was no consistent messaging across state-wide Democratic candidates. For
example, when Chris Koster says he has taken on ObamaCare it undermines the rest
of the ticket and other candidates, such as Judy Baker whose involvement in the roll out
of the ACA is one of her crowing achievements. This sacrifices long-term party
movement building for short-term political gain. There has to be consistent messaging
across Democratic candidates. Anything else confuses voters.
3. Depressed turnout in African-American and Urban Communities
Missouri in general saw a significant decrease in voter turnout as compared to 2008
and 2012. In particular, the northern sections of St. Louis City and St. Louis County,
composed of mostly minority voters, saw decreases in voter turnout. Although its too
early to know, the Missouri Democratic Party must determine what happened to
contribute to this decline.
What financial resources were contributed to African-American voter
engagement and mobilization?
What voter mobilization efforts took place within the African-American
community?
What was the effectiveness of mobilizing the surrogates we had to energize
voters?
4. You Cant Win if You Dont Play the Game: Lack of recruitment of candidates
to field challengers in every legislative district
In the 2016 election cycle, Democrats did not contest 66 State Representative races
and four Senate races. By only contesting 69 races, the Democratic Party would have
needed to win 80% to regain control of the State House. If the party had fielded
candidates in each race, they would have only needed a 50% win ratio. In addition, for
races in which the Democratic Party failed to recruit candidates, in some districts
quality candidates emerged who were provided little or no support from the State Party,
even when the DPI showed the districts to be winnable. For example, Michael Dorwart
in St. Charles was a lead organizer for the Bernie Sanders campaign in Missouri. He
ran for State Representative in a district with a DPI of 50 and walked away with 42% of
the vote in spite of having less than $10,000 to run on and no help from the State Party.
Districts such as this must be priorities for the party, especially when quality candidates
emerge who are willing to work hard to win.
In addition, The Missouri Democratic Party must recruit candidates for local offices who
can create a leadership pipeline for higher offices. Once candidates are recruited to run
for office across the State, the Missouri Democratic Party needs to provide them with
the tools they require in order to be successful. It needs to reinstitute Camp Carnahan
or something similar, which links up candidates with resources on how to effectively run
for office. This includes helping candidates to develop realistic fundraising plans, field
election years. At the same time, local, county, senatorial, and state committee must
supply the people power to bring the vision of the Missouri Democratic Party to the
people.
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