Editorial

TheGuardianviewonpopulationgrowth:thebabyboom
bonanza
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/29/theguardianviewonpopulationgrowththebabyboombonanza

Chinahashadtoabandonitsonechildpolicytokeepitseconomygrowing.ThatswhyBritain
needsimmigration
Chinaspopulationisshrinkingunsustainably.Fertilityisfarbelowthereplacementrate,the
genderimbalanceissoseverethat30millionmenmayneverfindwivesandtheproportionof
oldpeopleisrisinginexorably;lastyear,therewere3.7millionfewerpeopleofworkingage
thantheyearbefore.Theresponse,aftermorethan30yearsofoftenbrutalenforcement,isto
endtheonechildpolicy(butstillrestrictthenumbertotwo).IntheUK,thereverseistrue:the
populationisgrowingfastanditisnowpredictedtogrowfasterby10millionbetween2014
and 2039 and successive governments have worried about controlling migration. The
coincidence of the two news items provides some muchneeded context to the question of
optimalpopulationsize.
ThedesireforcontrolispredicatedontheMalthusianideathatthereisafinitenumberof
peopleacountrycansustainwithoutcompromisingstandardsofliving.Malthusinthelate18th
century, likeChina in the 20th, was concernedabout the number of mouths exceedingthe
nationscapacitytoputfoodinthem.Populationanxietyinthe21stcenturyiswoveninto
worries about social cohesion and the added cost to the state of providing healthcare and
education to a rapidly growing population. There are two ways of directly controlling
population numbers: the state can take over womens fertility (or mens, as Indira Gandhi
brieflytried)withallthegrotesqueinvasionofindividuallibertythatentails;oritcantrytostop
migrantscomingin(or,asBritaindidinpastcenturies,itcanincentivisepeopletoleave).
TheChinesecommunistpartyatlastadmitsitneedsagrowingpopulationifitistokeepupits
rateofgrowth,somethingitunofficiallyacknowledgedtwoyearsagowhenitletitbeknownit
was relaxing the onechild policy. The decision to make it official with the implicit
recognitionthatitwasaflawedpolicyinthefirstplacemayowesomethingtothelackof
impactthatinformalrelaxationhashad.Afteragenerationofthecruelimpositionofabitterly
resentedpolicy,whichcameinparallelwiththemovetothecities,manywomeninChinano
longer appear to want more babies. They have jobs: unlike their mothers, their economic
security doesnt depend on having children. Hong Kong, where the phenomenon is most
advanced,nowhasoneofthelowestbirthratesintheworld.
Meanwhile, in the UK earlier this year, the chancellor talked of Britain as a comeback
country. What he didnt say was that, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility,
economicgrowthdependsoninwardmigration;withoutanexpandingworkingagepopulation
boosting tax take, the impact of the cost of the rising proportion of the retired (and the
governmentsexpensivecommitmentstopensionsincreasesthatmeanpensionersarenow10%
betteroffthanbeforetherecession)wouldbeunsustainable.
Therichworldcannotaffordtohaltdemographicgrowth.Itneedstoconsumelessandcut
carbonemissions.Apopulationpolicybasedonevidencewouldmitigatemigrationimpacts
whilepromotingglobaleconomicsecurity.Itwouldprioritisewomenscontrolovertheirown
fertility;familiesthatmigratetendtohaveonemorechildthantheaverageoftheiradopted
country, but one less than families that stayed behind. Above all, recognise that the best
populationpolicyiseducationandincreasingprosperity.