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O2 UK saw data traffic increase 20-fold in 12 months, doubling every four months1
Vodafone UK saw data traffic increase 10 fold in 12 months1
AT&T in the US experienced mobile data volumes up 5,000% in the three years since they
introduced the iPhone in June 2007. The AT&T CEO is quoted as saying that he thinks that
this will increase a further 40 to 60 times over the next 5 years from July 2010s levels.
AT&T will spend $90bn this year alone on their network infrastructure.2
Mobile broadband subscribers and revenues in the top 5 European markets are forecast to
nearly double by 2011.3
A comparison with the launch of desktop internet applications such as Netscape and AOL is shown in
Figure 24. Apart from the phenomenon that is the iPhone (and its increasing number of
competitors), some of the other reasons for the amazing growth of mobile data include the
increasing use of mobile data cards (or USB modems), the exponential viral marketing that comes
Recognising the Promise of Mobile Broadband. The UMTS Forum 2010. Page 7.
th
Fortune.com C-Suite interview with Randall Stephenson, CEO of AT&T on August 5 , 2010.
3
Mobile Broadband in Europe, 4Q09, CCS Insight, January 2010.
4
Economy + Internet Trends, Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, Web 2.0 Summit, October 2009.
2
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Figure 2: Mobile internet outpaces desktop internet adoption. Source: Morgan Stanley.
Speeds
The mobile data speeds quoted by mobile network operators appear to be often at variance with
those experienced by users. Such differences are best shown in some of the online board
discussions. Mobile network operators want to close the gap between reality and theory and one of
the biggest obstacles to doing this is the lack of verifiable and extensive mobile data measurements.
Quality
3G cells breathe and there are many variables
determining the perceived quality of service by an end
user including e.g. contention and RF signal level. The
end user sees an internet connection with intermittent
performance but the underlying reasons can be very hard
to detect.
They could include user error, PC
configuration, base station location and capacity,
backhaul capacity fibre deployment, core network
signalling and data capacity, and connections to the
Internet from the core. In contrast, with fixed line broadband it is relatively easy to ensure a steady
quality of service.
All this leads to the need to know what is actually being delivered by the network and that can only
be discovered by measurements.
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Measurement Locations
Mobile Data Measurement locations of interest to Mobile
Network Operators include cities, interconnecting roads, points
of interest and rural areas. Measurement location categories
include in car, outdoor and indoor. Mobile broadband usage is
primarily indoors in residences and offices and at points of
interest such as shopping centres, restaurants, hotels, train
stations and airports.
In choosing the measurement locations there is a need to obtain as many measurements as are
required to ensure statistical significance. The locations chosen should be places where mobile
broadband is heavily used such as shopping centres, airports, train stations and built up office block
locations.
An in car measurement method can be made to simulate an indoor environment and enables
flexibility in location selection.
Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update 2010 2015, February 2011.
For the purposes of this white paper, static tests are defined as those done using measurement equipment or
probes left in situ. Nomadic tests are carried out using a measurement tool transported from point to point.
Drive tests are tests continuously carried out while the vehicle carrying the test tool is moving at typical vehicle
speeds.
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undertaken in static locations. However mobile data measurement equipment and probes are quite
expensive so nomadic point of interest measurements can be used to add flexibility and to reduce
the initial capital outlay for the customer. Once proven and accepted by the customer they can then
move to unattended probe operation. Unattended, centrally managed probes will gradually take
over from nomadic points of interest at a majority of locations where they can be installed and
maintained safely and under a satisfactory agreement with landlords.
The Hardware
Consumer experience could be affected by processor (CPU), on board memory (RAM) and hard disk
drive speeds as well as the data USB modem and smartphone specifications. A PC based
measurement tool is the most flexible and cost effective solution and should be based on a mid
range CPU, RAM and hard drive specification.
The PC Operating System (OS) and other software residing on the PC.
Different OS could have different default settings that affect the mobile data speeds. Software can
clog up RAM and hard disk space and affect CPU speeds. A data measurement tool should use the
most commonly used operating system and browser applications (i.e., Windows XP7 and Microsoft
Internet Explorer version 88) pre-installed to match customer experience as closely as possible.
In January 2011 Microsoft had nearly 90% of the global installed base of operating systems with XP at 55%
and Windows 7 at 22% (Vista has the remaining 12%). However Windows 7 share is doubling year on year and
is expected to take over from XP as the most popular operating system by early 2012. Source:
NetMarketShare.
8
Microsofts Internet Explorer (all versions) had 56% of the browser market on all devices in Jan 2011.
Internet Explorer version 8.0 had 34% market share. Source: NetMarketShare.
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Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update 2010 2015, February 2011.
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Data Communications
File Sharing
HTTP
Share of Traffic
26.39%
HTTPS
0.64%
0.57%
Admin
0.21%
Default Service
0.14%
Maps
0.02%
Other
0.00%
0.23%
Instant Messaging
0.12%
0.03%
P2P
24.85%
18.69%
Gaming
PC Gaming
0.65%
Gaming Consoles*
Xbox
0.12%
PlayStation
0.04%
Nintendo Wii
0.00%
Online Video*
Streaming Video
10.52%
Flash Video
6.99%
4.80%
3.56%
Video Downloads
0.28%
Other VoIP
0.64%
Skype
0.57%
0.40%
0.05%
0.04%
Phone VoIP
0.01%
H.323
0.00%
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Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update 2010 2015, February 2011.
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A PROGRESS/COMPETITOR
Monitoring service
Built around a mobile data only
Vilicom Benchmark Tool
Focus is on Key User perceived
data metrics
Multiple deployments, rapid &
high resolution testing
Monitor in (near) real time the evolving performance of your competitors Data Network
performance vs your own.
Monitor at a higher resolution and higher frequency than possible using traditional drivetest services.
In these times of rapid data network change, know immediately when and where your
competitor has recently upgraded their network, or is lagging.
Get instant benchmark data on the impact of your own network improvements.
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Standards
STQ is the European Telecommunication Standard Institutes (ETSI) technical committee for
Speech and Multimedia Transmission Quality. It was formed in 1997 combining interests
from the former BTC2, TE4 and TM5 areas of ETSI. It was intended initially as a centre of
expertise on speech quality issues but has broadened its scope to handle more general
quality issues including measuring methods.
Any measuring tool needs to take into account technical specifications such as ETSI TS 102
250-2 and other report outputs from this committee in the design of mobile data
measurement tools.
The Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) currently manages all the UMTS/3G
Wideband CDMA technical standards. In particular the TSG Radio Access Network manages
the standards for mobile data transmission.
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