Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SRef-ID: 1680-7359/adgeo/2006-6-3
European Geosciences Union
2006 Author(s). This work is licensed
under a Creative Commons License.
Advances in
Geosciences
1 Introduction
About once every four years, the sea surface temperature in
the equatorial eastern Pacific is a few degrees larger than normal (Philander, 1990). Near the South American coast, this
warming of the ocean water is usually at its maximum around
Christmas. Long ago, Peruvian fishermen called it El Nino,
the Spanish phrase for the Christ Child. The story of the
understanding of El Nino begins in India, where Sir Gilbert
Walker studies the variability in the monsoon rainfall. By
correlating surface pressures over the Pacific with those in
India, Walker discovers a pattern which he calls the Southern
Oscillation. The mean surface winds over the equatorial Pacific, the trade winds, blow from east to west and are driven
by an area of average high pressure in the eastern part of the
Pacific and a low pressure area over Indonesia. The Southern
Oscillation consists of an irregular strengthening and weakening of the trade winds, related to the changes in surface
pressure.
The mean temperature in the eastern Pacific is approximately 23 C, with seasonal excursions of about 3 C. During
Correspondence to: H. A. Dijkstra
(h.a.dijkstra@phys.uu.nl)
Observational characterization
pheoth a
d time
ly for
avere pengs to
al PaCar-
omaly
urface
5 N,
INO3
periween
ystem
d du-level
SOI),
malies
1 E).
with
O3 ina low
high: the
has a
n but
l) clitorial
nnual
ig. 3,
peraheast
at the
rises.
s and
The
along
(Fig. 3
The
month
charac
cific w
ern Pa
trade w
and se
than in
annual
about
about
ocean,
differe
ents as
(a)
Fig.
2. (a)
(a) Time-longitude
diagrams of
of equatorial
equatorial anomalies
anomaliesof
of(a)
(a)
Fig. 2.
Time-longitude diagrams
zonal
wind,
(b)
sea-surface
temperature
and
(c)
depth
of
the
20
zonal wind, (b) sea-surface temperature and (c) depth of the 20
isotherm
(a measure
measure for
for the
the thermocline
thermoclinedepth)
depth)for
forthe
theperiod
period1986
1986isotherm (a
2000,
as measured
measured by
by the
the TAO/TRITON
TAO/TRITON array.
array. Plot
Plot made
madethrough
through
2000, as
data
software at
at http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao.
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao .
data and
and software
(b)
(c)
Fig.
of December
December
Fig.1.1. (a)
(a)Sea-surface
Sea-surface temperature
temperature anomaly field of
1997,
Data from
from NCEP.
NCEP.
1997,atatthe
theheight
heightof
of the
the 1997/1998
1997/1998 El Nino. Data
(b)
period 1900
1900
(b)Monthly
Monthlymean
meanSOI
SOI and
and NINO3
NINO3 index
index over the period
1999.
(1998). SOI
SOI isis
1999. NINO3
NINO3isis from
from NCEP
NCEP and
and Kaplan
Kaplan et al. (1998).
fromNCEP
NCEPand
andEast
East Anglia
Anglia Climate
Climate Research Unit.
from
Unit. (c)
(c) Spectra
Spectra
monthlymean
mean SOI
SOI and
and NINO3.
NINO3. Shown are normalized
ofofmonthly
normalized periperiodogramssmoothed
smoothedover
over11
11 bins,
bins, that
that is over 0.11 cycles
odograms
cycles per
per year.
year.
Notethat
thatx-axis
x-axisisislogarithmic,
logarithmic, and
and ff S(f
S(f ) rather than
Note
than S(f
S(f)) isis
shown,ininorder
orderthat
that equal
equal areas
areas make
make equal contributions
shown,
contributions to
to the
the
variance. NINO3 index from NCEP and Kaplan et al. 1998. SOI
variance.
from NCEP and East Anglia Climate Research Unit.
southeast
tradesElin the
part among
of the basin
areinteresting
weakest in
What makes
Nineastern
o unique
other
April
(Fig.
3a)
and
strongest
in
October
(Fig.
3b).
Theboth
trade
phenomena of natural climate variability is that it has
a
winds
blow
toward
the
warm
pool
region
which
is
a
region
of
well-defined pattern in space as a relatively well-defined time
strong
deep
precipitation.
Close
scale. atmospheric
For example,
theconvection
sea-surfaceand
temperature
anomaly
to
the
tropopause,
equatorial
wind
directions
in
the
tropics
for December 1997 (Fig. 1a) is obtained by subtracting
tend
to be opposite
to that
at sea
and there
is eastward
the average
over all
months
oflevel
December
(over
a long
flow.
In
the
arid
eastern
part
of
the
basin
there
is pattern,
little or
reference period) from the actual 1997 pattern. The
no
convection
The net zonal
overthan
the
which
springsasto air
thedescends.
eye, is characterized
by cell
higher
equatorial
Pacific
is
called
the
Walker
circulation.
In
April
usual equatorial Pacific temperatures east of the date line
(Rasmusson and Carpenter, 1982).
A common index of this sea-surface temperature anomaly
pattern is the NINO3 index, defined as the sea-surface
temperature anomaly averaged over the region 5 S5 N,
150 W90 W. In the time series (Fig. 1b), the high NINO3
periods are known as El Ninos and the low NINO3 periods as La Ninas. There is no clear-cut distinction between
El Ninos, La Ninas, and normal
(a) periods, rather the system
exhibits continuous fluctuations of varying strengths and durations. An index that captures the amplitude of the sea-level
pressure pattern is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI),
which is the normalized difference of the pressure anomalies
between Tahiti (18 S, 150 W) and Darwin (12 S, 131 E).
The Southern Oscillation pressure pattern is associated with
weaker trade winds during periods with a high NINO3 index.
Generally, periods with a high(b)NINO3 index have a low SOI
and vice versa (Fig. 1b).
Fig. 3. Sea-surface temperature and wind stress climatologies for
SOI
more The
high-frequency
than the
(a)The
April
andcontains
(b) October.
contours givevariability
the 1961-1990
sea spectral tail
NINO3
index
(Fig.
1c):
the
SOI
has
a
white
surface temperature climatology (contour interval 2 C) from NCEP
while the Center
NINO3for
index
has a red tail.
(National
Environmental
Prediction), the arrows the
1961-1992
pseudo wind
stress
climatology
m2 s2 )sharp
from verFSU
In the equatorial
Pacific
ocean,
there is(ina rather
(Florida
State University).
Pseudo
has the direction
tical temperature
gradient,
calledwind
the stress
thermocline,
that sep-of
the
surface
wind andwaters
the magnitude
of much
the wind
speedwater
squared.
arates
the surface
from the
colder
of the
bulk of the ocean. The thermocline is sometimes identified
(Fig. 3a), the east-west contrast in sea-surface temperature
Fig. 4.
functio
ray, sho
at http:
The
the sp
mean
tempe
tongue
locked
peak a
NINO
April.
Wh
(Fig. 1
ular in
Zhang
streng
smalle
to as t
Accor
(NINO
1976-2
these (
terann
lies at
to mid
ENSO
Basic processes
Ocean processes
Fig. The
5. NINO3
anomalies
for13
13 observed
observed
ENSO
events
from 1950
Fig. 5. NINO3
anomalies
ENSO
upper
ocean isfor
generally
well-mixed
up
to aevents
depth
offrom
50 1950
The effects of the wind stress on the upper ocean are threeto 1998
with
the
mean seasonal
cycle
of this
period
removed
(from
m.
The
temperature
in
this
mixed
layer
changes
due
to
airto 1998 with
the
mean
seasonal
cycle
of thisbased
period
removed
(from
fold.
As described above, the dominantly easterly wind stress
Neelin
et
al.
(2000)).
The
curves
are
aligned
on
the
year
of
sea interaction, exchange processes with deeper layers and
temperature
(firstoftwo
Neelin ettheal.peak
(2000)).
The
curves
are
aligned
based
on
the
year
of
warm
phase
(at
year
1).
causes
watercan
to change
pile up due
neartotheadvection
western part
theterms
basin.in
advection. Let the net heat fluxes from the atmosphere into
the
right
hand
side),
horizontal
exchange
processes
and
verThis induces a higher pressure in the upper layer western
the peak warm
phaseand
(atthat
year
1). bottom of the mixed layer be dethe ocean
at the
tical
exchange
processes.
Pacific
than that
in the eastern Pacific and consequently a
noted by Qoa and Qb , respectively. Under the approximaThe
net
ocean-atmosphere
flux Q
can be
parameteroa east.
anomalies
at
the
eastern
side
of
the
basin
extend
from
the
shallowing
of
the
thermoclineheat
towards
the
Second,
the
tion that the temperature is vertically homogeneous over the
ized
as
being
proportional
(Haney,
1971)
to
the
temperature
equator
to
midlatitudes
(Zhang
et
al.,
1997).
winds
cause
divergences
and
convergences
of
mass
in
the
uplayer, one can integrate the heat balance equation over the
difference
thefrictional
upper ocean
and boundary
lower atmosphere
3 Basic processes
per ocean,between
due to the
(Ekman)
layer in
layer which results in an equation for the mixed-layer tem(T
),
i.e.,
which
the
momentum
input
is
transferred.
North
of the equaa
perature T which becomes
3 Basic processes
tor, the trade winds cause an Ekman transport to the right of
The description
of Tthe climatology
and
patterns
Q
T
T
Qoa variability
Qb
H
the oa
wind=
away
from
the
T (T
T
(2)
a )equator. Similarly, south of the equa= (u of +the
v climatology
) + FT (T )and
+ variability patterns
(1)
description
C
HmEkman mass transport is away from the equator. With
suggest The
thatt
the
relevant
scale
isp Hthe
whole
Pacific
x
yspatial
C
m
torpthe
suggest that the relevant spatial scale is the whole Pacific
a wind
of 0.1 P a, aconstant.
typical value
the lower
verbasin and
that interannual
variations
inHsea-surface
temperwhere
Cp is the heat capacity
of water,
m the mean depth
with
T stress
beingamplitude
a proportionality
Atofthe
basin and that
interannual variations in sea-surface
tempertical velocity is a few meters per day. Finally, the wind stress
of
the
mixed
layer,
its
mean
density
and
(u,
v)
are
the
horboundary
of the mixed layer, an approximation of the heat
ature, surface
winds
and
characterize
El Ni
niso.
ature, surface
winds
andthermocline
thermocline characterize
El Nino.
responsible for the presence of the upper ocean currents.
izontal mixed layer velocities. The quantity FTH represents
flux
is
this section,
physical processes
processes which
control
these these
In this In
section,
the the
physical
which
control
When the amplitude and/or the direction of the wind stress
the horizontal
mixing of heat
through lateral
turbulent
exvariations
are
described.
Q
Tsocean adjusts through wave dynamics.
changes,
the T
upper
b
change
processes. Equation (1) states that the mixed layer
variations are
described.
=w
(3)
The
most
important
Cp Hm
Hu waves involved in this adjustment protemperature can change due to advection (first two terms in
3.1 Ocean processes
cess are:
the right hand side), horizontal exchange processes and ver6. Overview
of theat oceanic
and
Here,
w is Fig.
a typical
vertical velocity
the bottom
of atmospheric
the
3.1 Ocean
processes
tical exchange processes.
(i) Equatorial
Kelvin
waves.
Forlength
such ascale
wave,such
the meridThe upper ocean is generally well-mixed up to a depth of 50
equatorial
coupled
ocean-atmosphere
system.
mixed
layer
and
H
is
a
vertical
that
the
u
The net ocean-atmosphere heat flux Qoa can be parameterional structure
of
the thermocline
islayer
maximal
at subthe
m. The temperature in this mixed layer changes
due to airtemperature
gradient
between
the
mixed
and
the
ized
as being
proportional well-mixed
(Haney, 1971) toup
the temperature
The upper
ocean
is generally
a depth
50 equator.
Its amplitude
decays
exponentially in meridsea interaction,
exchange processes
with deeper to
layers
and ofsurface
temperature
Teffects
is well-approximated.
s (Fig. 6)of
difference between the upper ocean and lower atmosphere
The
the
wind
stress
ional
direction
with
a
decay
scale
0 of about
300on
km.the upper o
m. Theadvection.
temperature
innetthis
layer
changes due
Let the
heatmixed
flux from
the atmosphere
into to airThe effects of the wind stress on the upper
ocean are three(Ta ), i.e.,
The
zonal
velocity
has
the
same
spatial
structure
as
the
fold. above,
As described
above,
thewind
dominantly
easte
the ocean and
that at theprocesses
bottom of thewith
mixeddeeper
layer be layers
defold.
described
the dominantly
easterly
stress
sea interaction,
exchange
and As
thermocline
and
the
meridional
velocity
is
zero.
The
Q
oa
noted by Qoa=and
Q
,
respectively.
Under
the
approximab
causes
water
to
pile
up
near
the
western
part
of
the
basin.
to pile upwaves,
nearsay
the
par
T (T Ta )
(2)
velocity ofwater
these non-dispersive
co , western
is
advection.
Let
the
net heatis fluxes
the atmosphere
into group causes
pH
m
tion C
that
the
temperature
verticallyfrom
homogeneous
over the
This induces
a
higher
pressure
in
the
upper
layer
western
induces a higher pressure in the upper
the ocean
and
at the bottom
of theequation
mixedover
layer
de- thanThis
layer,
onethat
can integrate
the heat balance
the be Pacific
that in the eastern Pacific and consequently a
Pacific
than that
in the
eastern
Pacific
and c
layer
which
results
an equation for the
mixed-layer
temshallowing of
the thermocline
towards
the east.
Second,
the
noted by
Qoa
and
Qb ,inrespectively.
Under
the approximaperature T which becomes
winds causeshallowing
divergences and
convergences
of
mass
in
the
upof the thermocline towards the eas
tion that the temperature is vertically homogeneous over the
per
ocean,
due
to
the
frictional
(Ekman) boundary
layer in
T
T
T
Q
Q
winds
cause
divergences
and convergences
of
oa
b
H
layer, one =
can
the
balance
equation
over
the
(uintegrate
+v
) + Fheat
(T
)
+
(1)
which
the
momentum
input
is
transferred.
North
of
the
equaT
t
x
y
Cp Hm
ocean,
due
to the
frictional
(Ekman)
bou
tor, the tradeper
winds
cause an
Ekman
transport
to the right
of
layer which results in an equation for the
mixed-layer temCp is the heat capacity of water, Hm the mean depth
the wind away
from the
Similarly,input
south of
equawhich
theequator.
momentum
is the
transferred.
Nor
peraturewhere
T which
becomes
of the mixed layer, its mean density and (u, v) are the hortor the Ekman
mass
transport
is
away
from
the
equator.
With
tor, the trade winds cause an Ekman transport
H
izontalT
mixed layer
a wind stress amplitude of 0.1 Pa, a typical value of the verT
Tvelocities.H The quantity
QoaFTrepresents
Qb
away
the equator.
Similarly, sou
the horizontal
is awind
few meters
perfrom
day. Finally,
the wind stress
= (u
+ vmixing) of
+ heat
FT through
(T ) +lateral turbulent ex- tical
(1)velocitythe
t
m layer
changex
processes.yEquation (1) states thatC
thep H
mixed
is responsible
the Ekman
presence of
the upper
ocean currents.
torforthe
mass
transport
is away from the
Coupled feedbacks
co ca
where the quantity T is a typical zonal temperature difference over the basin. L is the zonal length of the basin and
ca = 60 ms1 is the free Kelvin wave speed in the atmo-7
sphere.
Fig.7.7.Sketch
Sketchtotoillustrate
illustrate the
the thermocline
thermocline feedback
Fig.
feedback(red
(redarrows),
arrows),
the upwelling feedback (blue arrows) and the zonal advection feedthe upwelling feedback (blue arrows) and the zonal advection feedback (green arrows).
back (green arrows).
(5)
t
x
x
surface
temperature
anomaly will give, through local heating,
lower-level
wind
anomaly.forThe
resulting
wind stress
witha similar
type of
expressions
the other
terms.
anomaly
on the ocean-atmosphere
surface
will by
(i) looking
change the
The thermocline
feedback is best
explained
at
a sloping thermocline
in a constant
upwelling
> 0) oceanin
thermocline
slope through
horizontal
pressure(wdifferences
as upper
sketched
in Fig.
The sloping
thermocline
andupwelling
the upthe
ocean,
(ii)7.change
the strength
of the
wellingthe
are Ekman
caused by
the background
winds.
through
divergences
in the easterly
upper layer
andNow
(iii)
assume
a positive
sea-surface
temperature
perturbation
affect
thethat
upper
ocean currents
(u, v)
in the mixed
layer. The
T is present
at somefield
location,
for examplefield
in thewill
eastern
changes
in velocity
and thermocline
affectpart
the
sea surface temperature, according to (1).
The strength of the coupling between the system is determined by the combined effects of how much zonal wind
anomaly is generated by sea-surface temperature anomalies
and how much of the momentum of this wind is transferred as
stress to the upper ocean layer. The strength of the coupling
is measured by the parameter which is a (dimensionless)
product (Dijkstra, 2000) of T and , i.e.
T 1T L2
co2 ca2
(4)
where the quantity 1T is a typical zonal temperature difference over the basin. L is the zonal length of the basin and
ca =60 ms 1 is the free Kelvin wave speed in the atmosphere.
The main positive feedbacks identified in this coupled
ocean-atmosphere system are referred to the thermocline, upwelling and zonal advection feedback (Neelin, 1991). They
are best illustrated by looking at the growth of very small
perturbations (quantities with a tilde) on a background state
(quantities with a bar). Considering only the zonal advection term is Eq. (1) and neglecting quadratic terms in the per-
(5)
ocean
as sketched in Fig. 7. The sloping thermocline and the upwelling are caused by the background easterly winds. Now
assume that a positive sea-surface temperature perturbation
T is present at some location, for example in the eastern part
of the basin. This leads to a perturbation in the low level
zonal wind which is westerly with a maximum located west
of the maximum of the sea-surface temperature anomaly.
Since the background winds are weakened locally, the slope
of the thermocline decreases and it becomes more flat (red arrows in Fig. 7). In this case, the colder water will be closer to
the surface in the west but it will be farther down in the east.
Hence, the sub-surface temperature effectively increases at
the level of upwelling, giving a positive heat flux perturbation at the bottom of the mixed layer. According to (13),
i.e. T /t w(
T Ts )/Hu , when Ts T > 0, the original disturbance is amplified, as w is positive. The thermocline feedback is present in a transient state, but also in an
balanced (adjusted) state.
To understand the upwelling feedback, consider again a
positive sea-surface temperature anomaly in the eastern part
of the basin and associated changes in the wind. However,
now changes in the upwelling w,
mainly through the Ekman
layer dynamics occur. Weaker easterly winds imply less upwelling and hence less colder water enters the mixed layer
(blue arrows in Fig. 7). If w<0
At the moment, there is a hierarchy of coupled models available to study ENSO in the context of the global climate system. Models of Zebiak and Cane (1987) type are usually referred to as Intermediate Complexity Models (ICMs). Their
ocean component usually consist of the nesting of a mixed
layer and a thermocline layer (as shown in Fig. 6). A closed
system of equations is obtained, once the sub-surface temperature Ts is expressed into the thermocline deviation, say h,
from its equilibrium value. In the first model of this kind (Zebiak and Cane, 1987), the sub-surface temperature function
Ts (h) is chosen in such a way that saturation to fixed temperatures occurs when the thermocline becomes very shallow
and very deep, respectively.
Most of these models have been run in anomaly mode,
which means that the model is only used to compute the
anomalies with respect to a prescribed climatology, the latter
being an annual mean state or a seasonal cycle. Hence, these
models are aimed to study the basic physics of ENSO without
any attempt to understand its context. The characteristic behavior of solutions of these models can be summarized as follows. There exists a broad parameter range where oscillatory
behavior is found on interannual time scales, with recurrent
warm and cold events each of about 1418 month duration.
The eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have
an amplitude of about 23 C. When the coupling strength
decreases, the interannual oscillatory behavior disappears.
This suggests that there is some critical threshold associated with instabilities in the coupled system related to the
positive feedbacks as described in the previous subsection.
The annual cycle contributes to the irregularity of the interannual oscillation. The situation in June-July appears to be
most favorable for rapid growth of the sea-surface temperature anomalies and that in March-April seems less favorable.
To study ENSO within a larger context, Tropical General
Circulation Models (GCMs) have been developed. Many
types of models are used but essentially two different classes
can be distinguished: hybrid coupled models (HCMs) and
coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). Both type
of models consist of a state-of-the-art ocean model, but the
atmospheric components differ substantially. In CGCMs,
the atmosphere is a full physical-dynamical model whereas
in HCMs, it is an empirically derived (statistical) model.
The advantages of an HCM are a relatively low computational cost with respect to a CGCM. In addition, there is
no oversimplification of nonlinear oceanic processes as in
ICMs while still the level of complexity is lower than in a
CGCM allowing an easier understanding of the phenomena
simulated. HCMs have been quite successful in simulating
many aspects of ENSO variability (Syu and Neelin, 1995;
Tang, 2002). The CGCMs can be subdivided in so-called
TOGA models and global models. In TOGA models, a highresolution tropical Pacific ocean basin model is coupled to
a global atmosphere model. In global CGCMs, a relatively
low-resolution global ocean and atmosphere model are coupled (Delecluse et al., 1998; Latif et al., 2001).
To study aspects of the response of ICMs and GCMs in detail, simpler so-called reduced coupled models (RCMs) are
used. Examples are the Jin and Neelin (1993) model, which
was used to study how coupled processes lead to preferred
spatial-temporal patterns, the two-strip model (Jin, 1997a),
where propagation properties of preferred patterns were studied, and versions of the delayed oscillator model (Suarez
and Schopf, 1988; Battisti and Hirst, 1989). In going up
Fig. 9. (a
in the (Re
represente
for each m
ity bound
anomaly
refers to h
ative) ano
variability
4 Physics of El Nino
4.2
Results from output of many models within this hierarchy of coupled models indicate that a preferred spatial pattern, which varies on an interannual time scale, arises spontaneously through coupled feedbacks. Spontaneous here
means that infinitesimal perturbations on some background
state can grow to cause finite amplitude variability (on a specific time scale) on the background state. There are two
complications here: (i) the coupled processes involved in the
ENSO variability also affect the background state (Sect. 4.1)
and (ii) the background state is time-dependent. In Sect. 4.2,
we describe how ENSOs spatial pattern and temporal behavior arise through an internal mode of variability of a particular steady background state. In Sect. 4.3, the effects of a
time-dependent background state are considered.
4.1
(b)
(a)
Fig. 8. (a) Eastern Pacific (x/L = 0.8) equatorial sea-surface temFig. 8. (a) Eastern Pacific (x/L=0.8)
equatorial sea-surface temperature deviation from T0 = 30 C as a function of the coupling
perature deviation from T0 =30 C as a function of the coupling
strength . (b) Pattern of the thermocline depth anomaly at = 0.5.
strength . (b) Pattern of the thermocline depth anomaly at =0.5.
The quantities 0 (300 km) and H = 100 m are typical meridional
The
0 (300
and H =100 m are typical meridional
and quantities
vertical scales
of thekm)
thermocline.
and vertical scales of the thermocline.
4.2
The
Taking th
now inte
essary co
mining t
analysis.
decompo
or decay
backgrou
mode is
growth r
bility bo
scribed
can be
e gradi, 1986;
r a seaed (Ze-
annual
g zonal
est and
pattern
part of
in fact
d Dijky ext ,
ext can
by the
culation
rmined
ll east-
ace temcoupling
= 0.5.
eridional
a small
Van der
nd with
(a)
(b)
Fig. 9. (a) Plot of the eigenvalues for the six leading eigenmodes
Fig. 9. (a) Plot of the eigenvalues for the six leading eigenmodes
in the (Re(), Im())-plane. Values of the coupling strength are
in the (Re( ), I m( ))-plane. Values of the coupling strength are
represented by dot size (smallest dot is the uncoupled case ( = 0)
represented by dot size (smallest dot is the uncoupled case (=0)
for each mode, largest dot is the fully coupled case at the stabilfor
each mode,
dot(b)
is the
fully coupled
case at the depth
stability boundary
(clargest
= 0.5)).
Planforms
of the thermocline
ity
boundary
(
=0.5)).
(b)
Planforms
of
the
thermocline
depth
c
anomaly at several phases of the 3.7 year oscillation; time t=1/2
anomaly
at several
phases
the 3.7lines
yearrepresent
oscillation;
time(negt=1/2
refers to half
a period.
Drawnof(dotted)
positive
refers
to
half
a
period.
Drawn
(dotted)
lines
represent
positive
(negative) anomalies.
ative) anomalies.
(6)
In this equation, a, b and c are constants, T is the eastern Pacific temperature anomaly, which is influenced by
midbasin (at x=xc ) equatorial thermocline anomalies he
and off-equatorial anomalies ho . Furthermore, 1 = 2K and
s
lator and (iv) the advective/reflective oscillator. Below, we
g
only describe (i) and (ii); the other two oscillators are den
scribed
extensively
in Wang and Picaut (2004).
H. A. phenomenon
Dijkstra: ENSO phenomenon
11
ijkstra:
ENSO
9
t
nant
, and individual Kelvin and Rossby waves control
-djustment. A minimal model (Suarez and Schopf,
gattisti and Hirst, 1989; Munnich et al., 1991) repretthis behavior is a differential delay equation of the
r
= ahe (xc , t 1 ) bho (xc , t 2 ) cT 3 (t)
(6)
s
,
equation,
a, b and c are constants, T is the eastern
semperature (a)
anomaly, which is influenced by midgt x = x ) equatorial thermocline anomalies h and
c
e
torial anomalies h . Furthermore, = K and
o
1
Fig. 11.
Sketch
of the
different
the
recharge
oscillator
Fig.
11. Sketch
of the
different stages
stages ofofthe
recharge
oscillator
(Jin, (Jin,
e + where and are the basin crossing2 times
1997b).
1997b).
K
K
R
eelvin wave and the gravest (j = 1) Rossby wave.
e a Kelvin wave, which deepens the thermocline, arHence, through the thermocline feedback, the sea-surface
-he eastern Pacific, local amplification of temperature
4.3 temperature
ENSOs phase
locking
to thewhich
seasonal
anomaly
is amplified
bringscycle
the oscillaetions occurs through the thermocline feedback, reption to the extreme warm phase (Fig. 11a). Because of ocean
a nonzero
divergence
of the zonally
integrated
- by the first term in the right hand side of (6). The
Fully adjustment,
coupled mean
states
with seasonal
time-dependence
mass
transport
occurs
and
part
of
the
equatorial
heat
content
having the correct seasonal equatorial temperature
distribusponse
excites (off-equatorial) Rossby waves which
is moved to off-equatorial regions. This exchange causes
eestwards, reflect at the western boundary and return
tion are
obtain within
There
the difficult
equatorial to
thermocline
to flattenICMs.
and reduces
the are
east-strong
indications
that coupled
processes,
particularfeedback
those in the
evin wave which
ern temperature
anomaly
(again theinthermocline
(b) rises the thermocline and provides a
plays
a
role)
and
consequently
the
wind
stress
anomaly
vansurface layer, are involved in the seasonal cycle (Philander
-negative feedback, the second term in (6). The deishes
(Fig.
11b).
Eventually
a
non-zero
negative
thermocline
1 and (b)
et al.,
1996).
Conceptual studies have identified the equato10.
Dependence
ofof(a)(a)
growth
rateto
(rate
in yr
rtravel
Fig. Fig.
10.
Dependence
growth
(r )from
in yr1period
) and
(b)anomaly
pest the time
taken
for the Rossby
wave
is generated, which allows cold water to get into
(2/i in yr1 )1
of the ENSO mode on the mean wind stress (in
rial north-south
asymmetry as being a crucial factor in the
the ENSO
mode on thethe
mean wind
stress
riod (2/
i in yr
2)) of
er of wind
response
to2 sthe
western
boundary
the surface layer by the background upwelling. This causes
units
of 0.5 cm
and
the mean
thermoclineplus
depth (in m) (Fe2 2
seasonal
(Xie andtemperature
Philander,anomaly
1994)leading
with through
both evapos2000).
) and
the mean
thermocline
(ina negative
m)cyclesea-surface
(inreflected
units
cm wave
dorov of
and0.5
Philander,
akes
the
Kelvin
to cross
the basin.
The depth
amplification
to
the
cold
phase
of
the
cycle
(Fig.
11c).
ration
and
vertical
mixing
being
able
to
amplify
equatorial
(Fedorov
and
Philander,
2000).
e term is needed for equilibration to finite amplitude.
ar
Through
adjustment,
the
equatorial
heat
content
is
recharged
asymmetries. The stability of a seasonally varying backO recharge/discharge oscillator view (Jin, 1997b), the
R
(again the zonally integrated mass transport is nonzero) and
=
+
where
and
are
the
basin
crossing
times
of
state has to be determined using so-called Floquet
K
K delayed
R
ndjustment
Inis2 the
oscillator
view, theground
eastern
2 classical
leads to a transition phase with a positive zonally integrated
viewed
as
being
caused
by
a
collective
the Kelvin wave and the gravest (j =1) Rossby wave.
analysis
and has
only been
applied
to prescribed
)n and boundary
reflection
is unimportant,
the thermocline
feedback
equatorial
thermocline
anomaly
(Fig. 11d).
This recharge seasonal
osRossby
waves.
Adjustment
of deepens
sea-surface
temWhen
a Kelvin
wave, which
the thermocline,
arbackground
states
et al.,adapted
1994,to1996).
was
shown
cillator view
can(Jin
be easily
includeItthe
zonal
ad- that
through surface
isamplification
also important.
rives in thelayer
easternprocesses
Pacific, local
of temperature
vectionpattern
feedback
An, 1999)
the zonal
the spatial
of(Jin
theand
ENSO
modeas does
not advection
change much
occurs through
the thermocline
feedback, repr again a perturbations
positive sea-surface
temperature
anomaly
feedback
and
the
thermocline
feedback
induce
the same
tenwith
respect
to
that
determined
from
a
steady
background
the firstwhich
term in induces
the right hand
side of (6). The
astern partresented
of theby basin
a westerly
dencies of sea-surface temperature anomalies.
wind response excites (off-equatorial) Rossby waves which
state.
sponse. Through
ocean adjustment,
the slope
in the
travel westwards,
reflect at the western
boundary
and return A linear
4.3 ENSOs
phase locking
the seasonal
cyclelocking to the
mechanism
for to
ENSOs
phase
line is changed
giving
deeper
eastern
thermocline.
as a Kelvin
wavea which
rises
the thermocline
and provides a
seasonal cycle was proposed in Galanti and Tziperman
delayed
negative feedback,
the second
term in (6). The dethrough the
thermocline
feedback,
the sea-surface
Fully coupled mean states with seasonal time-dependence
(2000).
Thethe
coupling
strength
(t) varies
on a seasonal
lay
is
the
time
taken
for
the
Rossby
wave
to
travel
from
2
having
correct seasonal
equatorial
temperature
distribu- time
ture anomaly is amplified which brings the oscillathe center of wind response to the western boundary plus the
scale tion
andare
is difficult
maximal
duringwithin
June-July
to obtain
ICMs. and
Thereminimal
are strongduring
he extremetime
warm
phase (Fig. 11a). Because of ocean
it takes the reflected Kelvin wave to cross the basin. The
indications
that
coupled
processes,
in
particular
those
the eastDecember-January. Consider now the variation ofin the
ent, a nonzero
divergence
of for
theequilibration
zonally integrated
nonlinear
term is needed
to finite amplitude.
surface
layer,
are
involved
in
the
seasonal
cycle
(Philander
ern Pacific thermocline depth h in the classical delayed osnsport occurs
andrecharge/discharge
part of the equatorial
In the
oscillatorheat
viewcontent
(Jin, 1997b), the
et al., 1996). Conceptual studies have identified the equatocillator
picture as described by
ocean
adjustment
is
viewed
as
being
caused
by
a
collective
rial north-south asymmetry as being a crucial factor in the
d to off-equatorial regions. This exchange causes
of Kelvin andtoRossby
waves.
of sea-surface
seasonal cycle (Xie and Philander, 1994) with both evapoatorial thermocline
flatten
andAdjustment
reduces the
east- temdh(t)ration
perature through surface layer processes is also important.
and vertical
= dF((t
1mixing
)h(xcbeing
, t able
1 ))to amplify equatorial
perature anomaly
(again the thermocline feedback
Consider again a positive sea-surface temperature anomaly dt asymmetries. The stability of a seasonally varying backole) and consequently
the ofwind
stresswhich
anomaly
vanin the eastern part
the basin
induces
a westerly
ground
state has
be determined
eF((t
to
2 )h(x
)) so-called
f h(t) Floquet (7)
c , t 2using
g. 11b). Eventually
a non-zero
negative
thermocline
wind response.
Through ocean
adjustment,
the slope in the
analysis and has only been applied to prescribed seasonal
background
statesnonlinear
(Jin et al., 1994,
1996). the
It was
shown that
thermocline
is changed
deeperto
eastern
thermocline.
Here F
is a certain
function,
damping
of thery is generated,
which
allows giving
cold awater
get into
mocline anomalies is assumed to be linear (the third term
ace layer by the background upwelling. This causes
in (7)) and d, e and f are again constants. At peak time of
ve sea-surface temperature anomaly leading through
12
the spatial pattern of the ENSO mode does not change much
with respect to that determined from a steady background
state.
A linear mechanism for ENSOs phase locking to the
seasonal cycle was proposed in Galanti and Tziperman
(2000). The coupling strength (t) varies on a seasonal time
scale and is maximal during June-July and minimal during
December-January. Consider now the variation of the eastern
Pacific thermocline depth h in the classical delayed oscillator picture as described by
dh(t)
= dF((t 1 )h(xc , t 1 ))
dt
eF((t 2 )h(xc , t 2 )) f h(t)
(7)
Here F is a certain nonlinear function, the damping of thermocline anomalies is assumed to be linear (the third term in
Eq. 7) and d, e and f are again constants. At peak time of
ENSO, the eastern thermocline anomalies are maximal and
hence dh/dt0. For small dissipation, the warming by the
Kelvin wave (the first term in Eq. 7) has to balance the cooling due to the Rossby wave (the second term in Eq. 7).
Suppose that the peak of ENSO would occur during June,
i.e., maximum . In this case, the warm Kelvin wave
was excited during April and because coupling is strong
over April-June, it has a relatively large amplitude. The
Rossby wave was, however, excited about 6 months earlier, i.e., during November-December when coupling was
small. It has therefore a small amplitude and cannot balance
that of the Kelvin wave ((t1 )h(xc , t1 ) is large while
(t2 )h(xc , t2 ) is small). On the other hand, when peak
conditions are in December, the Kelvin wave is excited in
October during relatively small coupling and its amplitude is
only weakly amplified. The Rossby wave is now excited in
June when coupling is large and is amplified to significant
amplitude to balance the Kelvin wave thermocline signal.
5 ENSOs complex temporal signature
From the intermediate complexity models, a clear deterministic framework is available to explain oscillatory El Nino
variability which is phase-locked to the seasonal cycle. However, these models represent only part of the physical processes at work in the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system and
neglect important elements of ENSOs context. In this last
section, we consider two issues where this context is essential: the mechanisms of ENSOs irregularity (Sect. 5.1) and
the origin of its low-frequency variability (Sect. 5.2).
5.1
13
as (i) the signal of extratropical waves into the western equatorial Pacific (Lysne et al., 1997) and (ii) the coupling of the
meridional extent of the cold tongue to the shallow meridional overturning circulation connecting the equatorial upwelling region and the North Pacific subtropical gyre (Kleeman et al., 1999).
6
Conclusions
Although there are still many issues which are not sufficiently well described, we can conclude that the ENSO phenomenon can be understood within a (weakly) nonlinear
framework of equatorial ocean-atmosphere interaction. The
oscillatory nature of ENSO derives from an internal mode of
variability of the coupled system involving the coupled feedbacks and (ocean) wave dynamics. Possible mechanisms for
ENSO irregularity and low-frequency variability have been
suggested, but it is not clear at the moment which one is dominant.
Acknowledgements. The author thanks D. Neelin (UCLA, Los
Angeles), F.-F. Jin (FSU, Tallahassee) and and P. van der Vaart
(IMAU, Utrecht) for collaboration over the years.
Edited by: P. Fabian and J. L. Santos
Reviewed by: two anonymous referees
References
Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Latif, M., Dommenget, D., and Saravanan, R.: Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 615618,
1999.
Battisti, D. and Hirst, A.: Interannual variability in a tropical
atmosphere-ocean model: Influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlinearity., J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 16871712, 1989.
Bjerknes, J. P.: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial
Pacific, Monthly Weather Review, 97, 163172, 1969.
Burgers, G.: The El Nino Stochastic Oscillator, Clim. Dyn., 15,
352375, 1999.
Cane, M. A. and Sarachik, E. S.: Forced baroclinic ocean motions:
II. The linear equatorial bounded case, J. Mar. Res., 35, 395432,
1977.
Delecluse, P., Davey, M., Kitamura, Y., Philander, S. G. H., Suarez,
M., and Bengtsson, L.: Coupled general circulation modeling of
the tropical Pacific, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 35714 374, 1998.
Deser, C., Alexander, M. A., and Timlin, C. A.: Upper-ocean thermal variations in the North Pacific during 19701991, J. Clim.,
9, 18401855, 1993.
Dijkstra, H. A.: Nonlinear Physical Oceanography: A Dynamical
Systems Approach to the Large Scale Ocean Circulation and El
Nino., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, the Netherlands,
2000.
Dijkstra, H. A. and Neelin, J. D.: Coupled ocean-atmosphere models and the tropical climatology. II: Why the cold tongue is in the
east, J. Clim., 8, 13431359, 1995.
Eckert, C. and Latif, M.: Predictability of a stochastically forced
hybrid coupled model of the Tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere
system, J. Clim., 10, 14881504, 1997.
14
Fedorov, A. and Philander, S.: Is El Nino Changing?, Science, 288,
19972002, 2000.
Flugel, M. and Chang, P.: Stochastically induced climate shift of El
Nino-Southern Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 24732476,
1996.
Galanti, E. and Tziperman, E.: ENSOs phase locking to the seasonal cycle in the fast-SST, fast-wave and mixed-mode regimes,
J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 29362950, 2000.
Gu, D. and Philander, S. G. H.: Interdecadal climate fluctuations
that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics,
Science, 275, 805807, 1997.
Haney, R. L.: Surface thermal boundary conditions for ocean circulation models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 4, 241248, 1971.
Hazeleger, W., Visbeck, M., Cane, M. A., Karspeck, A., and Naik,
N.: Decadal upper ocean temperature variability in the Tropical
Pacific, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 89718988, 2001.
Hirst, A. C.: Unstable and damped equatorial modes in simple
coupled ocean-atmosphere models., J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 606630,
1986.
Jiang, N., Neelin, J. D., and Ghil, M.: Quasi-quadrennial and quasibiennial varibility in the equatorial Pacific, Clim. Dyn., 12, 101
112, 1995.
Jin, F.-F.: An equatorial recharge paradigm for ENSO. I: Conceptual Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 811829, 1997a.
Jin, F.-F.: An equatorial recharge paradigm for ENSO. II: A
stripped-down coupled model, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 8308847,
1997b.
Jin, F.-F. and An, S.-I.: Thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks
within the equatorial ocean recharge oscillator model for ENSO,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 29892992, 1999.
Jin, F.-F. and Neelin, J. D.: Modes of interannual tropical oceanatmosphere interaction a unified view. I: Numerical results., J.
Atmos. Sci., 50, 34773503, 1993.
Jin, F.-F., Neelin, J. D., and Ghil, M.: El Nino on the devils staircase: Annual subharmonic steps to chaos, Science, 264, 7072,
1994.
Jin, F.-F., Neelin, J. D., and Ghil, M.: El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: Subharmonic frequency-locking and
aperiodicity, Physica D, 98, 442465, 1996.
Kaplan, A., Cane, M. A., Kushnir, Y., Clement, A. C., Blumenthal, M. B., and Rajagopalan, B.: Analyses of global sea surface
temperature 18561991, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18 56718 589,
1998.
Kessler, W., Spillane, M., McPhaden, M., and Harrison, D.: Scales
of Variability in the Equatorial Pacific inferred from the Tropical
Atmosphere-Ocean Array, J. Clim., 9, 29993024, 1996.
Kirtman, B. and Schopf, P.: Decadal Variability in ENSO Predictability and Prediction, J. Clim., 11, 28042822, 1998.
Kleeman, R. P., McCreary, J. P., and Klinger, B.: A mechanism for
generating ENSO decadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26,
17431746, 1999.
Latif, M.: Dynamics of interdecadal variability in coupled oceanatmosphere models, J. Clim., 11, 602624, 1998.
Latif, M., Sperber, K., and coauthors: ENSIP: the El Nino simulation intercomparison project, Clim. Dyn., 18, 255276, 2001.
Lysne, J., Chang, P., and Giese, B.: Impact of extratropical Pacific
on equatorial variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 25892592,
1997.
Madden, R. and Julian, P.: Observations of the 40-50-day tropical
oscillation A review, Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 814835, 1994.
Mantua, N. J. and Battisti, D. S.: Aperiodic variability in the
Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model: air-sea interac-
15
Webster, P. J., Magana V. O., Palmer, T. N., Shukla, J., Tomas,
R. A., Yanai, M., and Yasunari, T.: Monsoons: Processes, predictabilty, and the prospects for predicting, J. Geophys. Res.,
103, 14 45114 510, 1998.
Xie, S.-P. and Philander, S. G. H.: A coupled ocean-atmosphere
model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific, Tellus,
46A, 340350, 1994.
Zebiak, S. E. and Cane, M. A.: A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation., Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 22622278, 1987.
Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., and Battisti, D. S.: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-1993, J. Clim., 10, 10041020, 1997.