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and technological innovation (Levine, 1997). Affecting economic growth through these channels is
realized by functions of financial intermediaries. These functions include the provision of means for
clearing and settling payments to facilitate the exchange of goods, services and assets, the provision of a
mechanism for pooling resources together and channeling them to the most productive sector of the
economy for investment, risk management, and price information to help coordinate decentralized
decision making in various sectors of the economy, among others (Merton and Bodie, 1995). Among
financial intermediaries, the insurance companies play important role, they are the main risk management
tool for companies and individuals. Through issuing insurance policies, they collect funds and transfer
them to deficit economic units for financing real investment. The importance of insurance is growing due
to the increasing share of the insurance sector in the aggregate financial sector in almost every developing
country. Insurance companies, together with mutual and pension funds, are one of the biggest institutional
investors in stock, bond and real estate markets and their possible impact on the economic development
will rather grow than decline due to issues such as widening income disparity and globalization.
Insurance companies are similar to banks and capital markets as they serve the needs of business units
and private households in intermediation. The availability of insurance services is essential for the
stability of the economy and can make the business participants accept aggravated risks. By accepting
claims, insurance companies also have to pool premiums and form reserve funds. So, insurance
companies are playing an important role by enhancing internal cash flow at the assured and by creating
large amount of assets placed on the capital market. Theoretical studies and empirical evidence have
shown that countries with better developed financial system enjoy faster and more stable long-run growth
of which insurance companies contribute to. Well-developed financial markets have a significant positive
impact on total factor productivity, which translates into higher longrun development. Based on Solows
(1956) work, Merton (2004) noted that due to the absence of a financial system that can provide the
means of transforming technical innovation into broad implementation, technological progress will not
have significant and substantial impact on the economic development and growth. The main objective of
this article is to investigate the link between the insurance sector development and economic growth of
Bangladesh and hence to fill a gap in the current finance-growth nexus.
growth uses national income accounting. Since economic growth is measured as the annual
percent change of gross domestic product (GDP), it has all the advantages and drawbacks of
that measure. The "rate of economic growth" refers to the geometric annual rate of growth in
GDP between the first and the last year over a period of time. Implicitly, this growth rate is the
trend in the average level of GDP over the period, which implicitly ignores the fluctuations in the
GDP around this trend.
To assess the economic development of a country, geographers use economic indicators including:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced by a country in a year.
Gross National Product (GNP) measures the total economic output of a country, including earnings from
foreign investments.
GNP per capita is a country's GNP divided by its population. (Per capita means per person.)
Economic growth measures the annual increase in GDP, GNP, GDP per capita, or GNP per capita.
Inequality of wealth is the gap in income between a country's richest and poorest people. Inflation
measures how much the prices of goods, services and wages increase each year. High inflation (above a
few percent) can be a bad thing, and suggests a government lacks control over the economy.
Unemployment is the number of people who cannot find work.
Objective of the Study
This paper mainly tried to focus on the economic growth- Insurance nexus in Bangladesh. The objectives
of this paper are to : a) Analyse the impact of insurance on economic growth and b) predict future data
using historical data with regression.
Methodology
This research paper is primarily based on historical data and data collected from secondary sources.
Moreover regression techniques is used to predict future data of insurance industry in Bangladesh.
Sources of Data : Information has been collected from the annual report of the concerned companies and
IDRA. Besides that the Insurance Year Book published by Bangladesh Insurance Association was also
utilized to get required information.
*Economic conditipn of Bangladesh
percentage %
GDP
INFLATION
Unemploymen
t
2014
6.5
7.01
5.00
2013
6.01
7.54
5.00
2012
6.52
6.23
5.00
2011
6.46
11.46
5.00
Tk.
Premium
Asset
Investment
(million)
Year
2013
2012
2011
2013
2012
2011
2013
2012
2011
Life
6428
6587
6281
2446
2396
2029
1929
1920
1533
Non-Life
0
1250
1
1594
4
1145
80
8589
34
7812
45
5544
00
2298
70
1925
18
2295
Total
5
7678
7
8181
6
7427
5
3305
1
3177
3
2583
3
2158
8
2113
0
1762
75
55
88
83
28
68
317755
330575
300000
258388
250000
211328
215883
81818
76785
2012
2013
176268
200000
150000
74270
100000
50000
0
2011
Total Asset
Total Premium
Total Investment
We are experiencing positive change in insurance industry. Though there is lack of confidence of people
on insurance industry, but education technological and regulatory improvement are growing confidence
and awareness among people and they are going more for insurance industry. Moreover some more
competitive factor are increasing the industrys asset premium and investment. The analyzation of the
sample size gives us the following finding of those increasing: a) the low level of premium is not
burdensome for people. And now insurance industry is charging lower premium facing competition, b)
industry is offering more competitive product and covering maximum number of peoples demand c)
population is going for more luxurious product with increase of income d) industry is educating more
people to Increase awareness. And the maximum no. of educated people are going more under insurance
coverage e) the improvement in regulatory framework of insurance companies are increasing confidence
of population, f) the improvement of regulation on agent is increasing reliably of people and the premium
is those increasing g) the competition in insurance industry is leading to competitive pricing of insurance
h) Low amount of claim arises: the lower no of claim settlement is also increasing the premium i)
Investment in productive sector: insurance industry is investing more in those sector where the investment
of fund does not only brings profit but also maximizes wealth.
% of Premium to GDP
1
0.69
0.62
0.8
0.55
0.6
0.4
0.21
0.2
0
DATE
0.2
0.19
0
01-01-11
Non Life Premium to GDP
01-01-12
01-01-13
is higher than the average premium paid for insurance contracts. Liabilities of insurance companies
depend on the probability of the insured risk and on the unpredictable resulting losses. The financial risks
and liabilities are more uncertain and fluctuations can be higher for insurers than for banks. The
investment policy is focusing on the stability and assets are usually more liquid. Insurance liabilities are
usually of longer term than those of banks. It is true for life insurers, whereas the arising liabilities
continue for many years and sometimes not covered by appropriate investment element. So insurance
have to rely on long term investments and qualified to play a large role in financial markets trading long
term assets. Insurance companies are major investors into shares, bonds, loans and real estate. The total
investment by insurance sector to GDP growth should be major revenue for analyzing insurance growth
nexus. Directly and indirectly insurers provide funds for investment and add to demand for the respective
financial market instruments. Due to higher liquidity, it is much easier for private and institutional
investors to access diversified investment portfolio and to invest in high risk, high productive projects.
Deepening capital markets: Insurance companies play a major role on stock and bond markets, analyzing
the impact of insurance investment by category on the economy is a further area to explore.in line with
the discussion about intermediaries holding assets the positive influence of the increased capital
mobilization, the pressure on the domestic interest rate and the advantage of institutions of scale
monitoring companies. Efficiency improvement in the insurance market can put additional pressure on to
other financial intermediaries and improve the contribution of the financial sector to real growth.
Generally insurance companies invest in every sector with lower risk and higher return. They invest their
funds in overseas and also in country. The main focus in on the risk and return of the fund invested.
Sectors of investment are:
Statutory reserve with Bangladesh Bank, Bangladesh Government Treasury Bonds, Corporate Bonds,
Security market, Short term investment in financial institutions., Foreign Direct Investment, Secured and
convertible bond (NPS), House property, Jatiyo biniog bond.
The insurance companies mostly invest in share market. The approximate percentage of share investment
is 70% - 85% of their total investment. The insurance companies keep statutory reserve with Bangladesh
Bank to 1% - 2% of their total investment. They also invest the significant portion of their investment in
Bangladesh Government Treasury Bonds. They also invest in the other sector
0.08
0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.02
0.01
0
2011
0
0.02
0
0.02
2012
2013
Empirical Analysis
Regression Analysis
To show how GDP is related to premium and investment of insurance in Bangladesh, regression
techniques is used to provide an empirical analysis. Most papers reviewed utilize simple OLS Regressions
or Granger Causality Tests and mainly test for the determinants of insurance demand. Since the main
focus of this paper is to test for insurance services as a main indicator for economic growth, we had to
vary from the standard approach and adopted a framework mainly used in other finance-growth nexus
analysis. Following Eller (2005), Fink (2004, 2005) or Webb, Grace & Skipper (2002) we adopted a
endogenous growth model with a modified Cobb-Douglas production function assuming constant returns
to scale and perfect competition.
Regression
16000000
14000000
f(x) = 513.03x - 20173417.85
12000000
R = 0.18
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
64000 64500 65000 65500 66000 66500 67000 67500
Estimation Results
The estimation output is summarized in following table and using current or lagged values of either total
premium income or a specific premium income does not change the results. The coefficients for physical
capital and the constant remain significant and show the expected sign. Human development seems to be
negatively connected to GDP growth, but the coefficient is near zero and is as the interest and the
inflation rate not significant. The sign of the coefficients for premiums vary. Whereas total insurance and
non-life insurance consumption seems to enter negatively, life insurance premium income has a positive
effect. But in all cases the premium income lacks significance.
*Time Series Graph
year
GDP
MA(4)
CMA
St, It
St
Deseason
13611
sts
131614
(4)
Tt
foreca
2001
271732
0.9669
alize
2810241.2
2002
9
270533
38
1.9669
1375402.3
45
13120
3
258072
2003
1
290603
283723
290770
0.9994
38
2.9669
979473.5
52
12629
5
374711
2004
7
302022
0
297817
3
312283
27
0.9671
38
3.9669
761348.7
58
12138
9
481532
2005
3
328111
7
326749
4
343365
42
0.9555
38
4.9669
660591.1
65
11647
7
578534
2006
5
386258
1
359981
2
408894
76
0.9446
38
5.9669
647331.7
72
11156
8
665718
2007
8
423532
4
457806
0
514660
43
0.8229
38
6.9669
607918.1
78
10665
3
743083
2008
8
693323
6
571514
6
637710
36
1.0872
38
7.9669
870250.4
85
10174
0
810629
2009
1
782944
7
703907
9
782866
06
1.0001
38
8.9669
873145.3
91
96839
1
868356
2010
0
915828
2
861825
1
925025
0.9900
38
9.9669
918866.8
8
91930
5
916265
2011
8
105520
0
988225
0
105831
58
0.9970
38
10.966
962168.3
4.6
87021
2
954355
2012
40
119892
0
112840
63
120312
59
0.9965
94
11.966
1001863.0
1.2
82111
2
982626
76
127785
90
04
2013
32
134367
94
12.966
1036231.1
7.8
77202
5
100107
44
151359
03
2014
94
13.966
1083701.9
4.4
72293
92
100971
2015
97
94
14.966
0.9
67383
32
100852
2016
94
15.966
7.5
62474
85
997525
2017
94
16.966
4.1
57565
1
976703
2018
94
17.966
0.7
52655
0
946062
7.3
94
CONCLUSION
The main intention of this article is to add to the understanding of the role of the insurance sector in the
finance-growth-nexus, i.e. whether and how insurance influences economic growth. The rationale behind
this notion is twofold: On the one hand, the importance of the insurance sector within total financial
intermediation has risen over time, and the magnitude and intensity of links between insurance, banking
and capital markets has also risen; thus the likely impact of insurance onto the economy should have gone
up. On the other hand, the strength of the bank/stock finance-growth-relationship found in empirical
studies, which used mainly pre- data seems to have diminished in more recent years. Could the
weakening of this seemingly robust finance-growth relationship that drove so much of policy
recommendations be caused, among others, by the very growth of the insurance sector and its respective
role? If there is a causal and strong relationship running from the insurance sector onto economic growth,
and/or if the insurance muscle weakens formerly important bank and capital market channels for growth,
this would lead to numerous policy recommendations, for example in sequencing of reforms in transition
and emerging markets and in priorities for financial market development. So we analyzed the various
channels of influence of the insurance sector vis--vis economic growth: risk transfer (bearing risk for
other economic agents which might stabilize their income streams, dampen volatility and enhance
economic activity), substitute savings (broadening the investment range might make intermediation more
efficient and thus aid in economic growth), investment (e.g. increasing over-all investment volumes and
deepening capital markets), institutional spheres of influence (e.g. banc assurance) and possible sources
of contagion and repercussions to the economy. We also provide descriptive evidence on the magnitude
and development of the insurance sector vis--vis other financial sectors in Bangladesh. Next, we review
the literature for models on the insurance-growth-nexus and for empirical investigations. Although the
number of empirical analyses is quite low and lags miles behind the multitude of studies about other
growth channels, there seemed to be at least weak evidence that GDP, interest rate and inflation rate are
correlated to insurance consumption. After identifying various possibilities to measure the impact of the
insurance sector, we develop a modified production function to empirically investigate our endogenous
insurance-growth model. The empirical analysis of a panel data set of Bangladesh for the periods is used
to estimate the coefficients and the significance of each input factor, but results showed no evidence for a
correlation between aggregate insurance premium income and GDP growth. Our findings add to the
mixed picture found in the literature review and resemble the same weak link found in the bank/stock
finance-growth-relationship in recent year. Most of the growth of the aggregate insurance sector over the
last decade in Bangladesh was in the life insurance branch. We thus conclude that the mild evidence we
find on the impact running from life insurance premium to economic growth might be supporting the
assumption that an expanding insurance sector is weakening the bank/stock finance-growth-nexus.
Clearly, more research on the various channels is necessary. Similar to findings on the bank-growthnexus, there could also be threshold effects at work, calling for analyzing country groups of more
homogeneous insurance intermediation than done here. We conclude that there is a good theoretical point
for the insurance sector influencing economic growth (and vice versa), but only weak empirical evidence
as of yet. Our empirical findings point to future possibilities in investigating the nexus further by using
different indicators for insurance engagement and model setup and longer time periods. The disparity
between the importance of the insurance sector for the finance-growth nexus and acknowledgement
received from researchers up until now prompts us to recommend conducting further investigation, which
would help to eliminate essential knowledge gaps in macroeconomic theory and answer why the financegrowth-nexus seems to be have become less robust on more recent data.
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