1

1.2.1
1.2.2
1.2.3 A B H
1.2.4
1.2.5
1.2.6 T+1
1.2.7
1.2.8
1.2.9
1.2.10
1.2.11
1.2.12
1.2.13
1.2.14
1.2.15
1.2.16
1.2.17
1.2.18
1.2.19
1.2.20 K
1.2.21
1.2.22
1.2.23
1.2.24


1.4.1
1.4.2
1.4.3

1.5.1
1.5.2

1.6.1
1.6.2

1.6.3
1.6.4

A
2.1.1
2.1.2 A
2.1.3

2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3

2.3.1 MA
2.3.2

2.4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
2.4.4
2.4.5



3.2.1
3.2.2

3.3.1
3.3.2
3.3.3
3.3.4

3.4.1
3.4.2
3.4.3
3.4.4





4.4.1
4.4.2
4.4.3

4.5.1
4.5.2
4.5.3
4.5.4
4.5.5

4.6.1
4.6.2
4.6.3
4.6.4
4.6.5

1K
2
3
5.3.1
5.3.2
5.3.3
4
5.4.1
5.4.2
5.4.3
5
5.5.1

5.5.2
5.5.3
5.5.4
5.5.5

6.5.1
6.5.2
6.5.3
6.5.4



7.1.1
7.1.2
7.1.3
7.1.4
7.1.5

K


K
9.3.1
9.3.2
9.3.3
9.3.4
9.3.5


K
9.6.1 V
9.6.2
9.6.3
9.6.4
9.6.5
K
9.7.1 V
9.7.2

9.7.3
9.7.4
9.7.5


10.1.1
10.1.2
10.1.3
10.1.4
10.1.5

10.2.1
10.2.2
10.2.3
10.2.4
10.2.5
10.2.6





10.7.1
10.7.2
10.7.3
10.7.4
10.7.5
10.7.6
10.7.7
10.7.8

MA
11.1.1 MA
11.1.2 MA
11.1.3 MA
11.1.4 MA

MACD
11.3.1 MACD
11.3.2 MACD
11.3.3 MACD
11.3.4 MACD
KDJ
MBSS

1 1~5

2 6~8

3 9~12

z 1 5

z
z
z
z

2010 3

1-1

(
)

1.2.1

1.2.2

1.2.3 A B H
A
B

H
A
A
A A A A

A A
A
B
B B

B
B

H Hong
Kong H

1.2.4

5IPO

IPO IPOinitial public offerings

IPO

1.2.5
100
10 1000

1.2.6 T+1
T Trade T+1
T+1

1.2.7
601857
601398 A 600601
000

1.2.8
IPO

NN NEW

1.2.9

1.2.10

1.2.11

1.2.12

1996 12
26 AB

10
%

1.2.13

1.2.14

1.2.15

A A

1.2.16

1.2.17

1.2.18

A 915 925
915 920
920 9 30

1.2.19

1.2.20 K
K
K
K

1-2

1.2.21

1.2.22

1.2.23

1.2.24

K
K K

K K
K K K
K K
VOL
==
1-3 6001572009-10-22 2010-01-20
K K K
K

1-3

1-4 6003622006 7 2010 2

K

1-4

1.4.1
ST

1-5 6000051999 8 2010

2
5

1-5

1-6
0020242004 7 2008 4

40

 1-6

ST 3
ST ST
5%
1-7 6001711998 9 2010 2

10 1998

1-7

1.4.2

 A
10
A
5 10 5

1-8 2006 11 2010 1 1-9 2006 11

2010 1

1-8

2006 11 2010 1

 1-9

2006 11 2010 1

1.4.3

3G

1-10

1-10

1.5.1
IPO

40% 50%

200%
100%

1-11 0022962009-09-29 2010-02-04

 2009-09-29
1.5
69%

25 35
30
6000

1-11

1-12 0022852009-08-28 2009-12-18

2009-08-28
2

1-12

1.5.2

1-13 0021662009-02-05 2009-08-04

2009-04-27

2009

2009 H1N1

2009
2009 2008
19.44% 2008 29.62%

1-13

1.6.1

1-14 6008442009-07-14 2009-12-24

 1-14

1.6.2

20 5%
20

1-15 6011862009-10-09 2010-02-05

8 20

1-15

1.6.3

50%

30

1-16 6004972005-12-23 2007-10-10 2005

 1-16

1.6.4

1-17 0000392006 8 2008 11

2007 6

2006
2007 6

 1-17

2.1.1

2.1.2 A
A A A A
A
000001399001
399005
000001

1991 7 15 1990 12 19
100
=100

F5
K 2-1 0000012009-03-12 2010-02-09
K K

2-1

399001
40

A B
399005
2005-06-07 1000 100

2006 6 8
ETF ETF

000004000005
000006000007
000008
399130399131399134

991009991017
991036

2.1.3
K

2-2 0000012007-05-29 2007-10-16

2007-05-30
2-3
6007292007-05-29 2007-12-05 2007-05-29
2007-05-29

2-2

2007

2-3

2007

2.2.1

20% 50%

2-4 0000012006-06-20 2007-10-12

1500 6000

2-4

2.2.2

20% 50%

2-5 0000012007-10-29 2008-10-26

6000 1600

2-5

2.2.3

2-6 6005522004 12 2006 5

2-7 2006 5 2007 5 2006 5

2007

2-6

2-7

2.3.1 MA

50%

(MA)

5 10 20 40 60 120 240
5 30 60

Cn n 5
5 MA5
n MA5
MA5n=Cn + Cn-1 + Cn-2 + Cn-3 + Cn-45
MA5 5

2-8 6007662006-11-17 2007-05-30

K
MA5 MA30 MA60

 2-8

2-9 6016662008-05-15 2008-12-16

K
MA30 MA30 MA5

2-9

2-10 6005362009-03-03 2009-09-02

 2-10

2-11 6005382008-07-11 2009-02-02

2-11

2.3.2

2-12 6005462009-01-23 2009-11-30

2-12

2-13 6005552008-09-10 2009-07-31

45

2-13

2-14 6005632006-01-20 2008-03-28

2-15

2-14

2-15

2-16 6005592007-12-25 2008-11-27

 2-16

2-17 6005602008-02-19 2009-01-21

2-18

2-17

 2-18

2.4.1

2008
2007 2008

2008 10
2008 10 2009 5 50%

 2-18 2008
2 2009 5

2-18

2008 2 2009 5

2-19 2004 12 2008 1 2004

2006

2006 2007

 2-19

2004 12 2008 1

2-20 2007 12 2008 10

2-20

2007 12 2008 10

2.4.2

2-21 2006-09-05 2007-07-19

1600 4000
2007-05-30

2007-05-30

2-21

2007-07-19

2-22 6003362006 9 2008 6

2007 5 2007-05-30

2007-05-30

2007-05-30

2-22

2006 9 2008 6

 2-23 2008-05-22 2008-11-24

2008-09-19

2008-09-19

2-23

2008-11-24

2.4.3

2-24 2008-09-01 2008-10-27 2008-09-19

2-25 2008-10-27

2008-09-19 2008-10-27 2300 1500 30%

2008-09-19

2-24

2008-10-27

2008-09-19

2-25

2008-10-27

2.4.4

2-26 2008-07-28 2009-01-15

2-26

2.4.5

2-27 6004892009-01-16 2009-07-07 2-28

0022372009-01-16 2009-07-23

2-27

2009

2-28

2009

3-1

3.2.1

(Business cycle)

3.2.2

GDPGross Domestic Product

GDP

3-2 2003 2007 GDP GDP

2007

 3-2

2003-2007 GDP

CPI (Consumer Price Index) CPI

CPI

CPI

CPI CPI 2.5

2.3% 2.3% 100
100 97.50
CPI
CPI
CPI 3% CPI 5%
CPI 1%3%

CPI

PPIProducer Price Index PPI

CPI CPI
PPI
CPI PPI
PPI PPI PPI
Interest Rate
=

3-3 2008 3 12 2008

2008 9 2008 12
3-4 2009 1 11
2009

3-3

2008 3 12

3-4

2009 1 11

3.3.1

3.3.2

2009-05-07 2

3.3.3

3.3.4

3.4.1

3.4.2

3.4.3

3.4.4

100%

20 20

=-

K
K K K K
K K

(Dow theory)

1851 1902

(William Peter Hamilton)(Robert Rhea)

1895
11
1897
1929

1902 12 .

1929 10 23

4.4.1

Secondary reactions
Primary trend

1895

95%

4.4.2

Primary trend
Secondary reactions

4-1 0000012006-06-20 2007-10-12

1500 6000

4-1

4-2 0000012007-10-29 2008-10-26

6000 1600

4-2

4-14-2

4.4.3

Band theory
Band theory
Ralph Nelson Elliott) 20 30

Natre's lsw-The Secnt of the universe

13 Pattern

4.5.1

4.5.2

1 2 3 4 5 A
B C

4-3

4.5.3

1
2 1

4 3
4 4
4
1
5

C
C B
C

4.5.4

3 1 5
3
4 1

1 3 1
3 2
4 2
4

135

4.5.5

WaveCount

Willian D.Gann

4.6.1

50% 50% 50%63%100%

50%
63%

4-4 2007-08-15 2008-08-06

6124 3000
50%
6124

3000
50%

 4-4

50%

4.6.2

1 2 4 ......18 24 3 7 13 15
3 7

1 2 3 5 7 10 13 15

20 30 45 49 60 82 84 90 100
10 10
10
10 10
3 7 1 2
4-5 2007 10 2008 10
1

4-5

2007 10 2008 10

4.6.3

K MACD KDJ PBX

BOLL

4-6 2007-11-28 2009-07-29

2008 9
2009 9 2008-09-19

10 9
0.27 10 15 0.5
2008-11-10

4-6

4.6.4

100%

4.6.5

1 10
110
2

3
4

5
6
7

10

11

12

13

14
15
16

17
18