Tanggal

Yamaha (V Merek Lain

1/7/2007
130587
212186
2/7/2007
145872
202851
3/7/2007
159035
204820
4/7/2007
128270
186655
5/7/2007
168367
208039
6/7/2007
154220
216091
7/7/2007
161061
203326
8/7/2007
167208
259935
9/7/2007
162639
314433
10/7/2007
146908
275482
11/7/2007
174086
312891
12/7/2007
136998
256303
1/7/2008
185900
287160
2/7/2008
188047
276737
3/7/2008
186286
302460
4/7/2008
221016
321734
5/7/2008
217867
324243
6/7/2008
204735
339927
7/7/2008
214136
363621
8/7/2008
223222
388810
9/7/2008
212012
347625
10/7/2008
207671
307452
11/7/2008
210231
281007
12/7/2008
194423
208327
1/7/2009
162135
205601
2/7/2009
180723
233864
3/7/2009
196695
239186
4/7/2009
189082
196749
5/7/2009
206992
250658
6/7/2009
218614
266560
7/7/2009
250483
294355
8/7/2009
279054
347299
9/7/2009
187904
233723
10/7/2009
279049
334930
11/7/2009
249364
296988
12/7/2009
250897
301068

Tracking
Report
Dates
Jan-2007
Feb-2007
Mar-2007
Apr-2007
May-2007
Jun-2007
Jul-2007
Aug-2007
Sep-2007
Oct-2007
Nov-2007
Dec-2007
Jan-2008
Feb-2008
Mar-2008
Apr-2008
May-2008
Jun-2008
Jul-2008
Aug-2008
Sep-2008
Oct-2008
Nov-2008
Dec-2008
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009
Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009
Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010
May-2010
Jun-2010

Actual

Forecast
130,587.00
145,872.00
159,035.00
128,270.00
168,367.00
154,220.00
161,061.00
167,208.00
162,639.00
146,908.00
174,086.00
136,998.00
185,900.00
188,047.00
186,286.00
221,016.00
217,867.00
204,735.00
214,136.00
223,222.00
212,012.00
207,671.00
210,231.00
194,423.00
162,135.00
180,723.00
196,695.00
189,082.00
206,992.00
218,614.00
250,483.00
279,054.00
187,904.00
279,049.00
249,364.00
250,897.00

Fitted Values 161,034.38

165,344.68
161,943.53
153,556.11
163,429.86
167,147.76
161,253.70
187,392.09
212,555.76
194,570.70
211,843.76
185,715.07
199,962.84
195,150.17
207,027.40
215,926.89
217,085.39
224,327.25
235,267.61
246,898.27
227,881.69
209,332.38
197,121.79
163,562.84
162,304.15
175,354.18
177,811.54
158,216.87
183,108.57
190,451.09
203,285.03
227,731.16
175,289.08
222,019.95
204,500.78
206,384.66
206,384.66
206,479.97
206,479.97
206,479.97

Yamaha (VD)

300,000.00
250,000.00
200,000.00
150,000.00
100,000.00
50,000.00
0.00
Jan-2007

Apr-2007

Jul-2007

Oct-2007

Jan-2008

Apr-2008

Actual

Jul-2008

Forecast

Multiple Regression -- Result Formula

Yamaha (VD) = 67,370.85 + ( (Merek Lain) * 0.461736 )
Forecast -- Multiple Regression Selected
Date
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010
May-2010
Jun-2010
Total
Avg
Max
Min
Summary Comments

Monthly
206,479.97
206,479.97
206,479.97
206,479.97
206,479.97
206,479.97
1,238,879.80
206,479.97
206,479.97
206,479.97

Forecast
Quarterly

Annual

619,439.90

619,439.90
619,439.90
619,439.90
619,439.90

Oct-2008

#DIV/0!
0.00
0.00

Jan-2009

Apr-2009

Fitted Values

Jul-2009

Oct-2009

Jan-2010

Apr-2010

The forecast has an average error of

The data has a standard deviation of
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by

12.27%
38,672.90
43.28%

Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis
Series:Yamaha (VD)
Dates
Jan-2007
Feb-2007
Mar-2007
Apr-2007
May-2007
Jun-2007
Jul-2007
Aug-2007
Sep-2007
Oct-2007
Nov-2007
Dec-2007
Jan-2008
Feb-2008
Mar-2008
Apr-2008
May-2008
Jun-2008
Jul-2008
Aug-2008
Sep-2008
Oct-2008
Nov-2008
Dec-2008
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009
Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009

Original Data
130,587.00
145,872.00
159,035.00
128,270.00
168,367.00
154,220.00
161,061.00
167,208.00
162,639.00
146,908.00
174,086.00
136,998.00
185,900.00
188,047.00
186,286.00
221,016.00
217,867.00
204,735.00
214,136.00
223,222.00
212,012.00
207,671.00
210,231.00
194,423.00
162,135.00
180,723.00
196,695.00
189,082.00
206,992.00
218,614.00
250,483.00
279,054.00
187,904.00
279,049.00

Fitted Data
165,344.68
161,034.38
161,943.53
153,556.11
163,429.86
167,147.76
161,253.70
187,392.09
212,555.76
194,570.70
211,843.76
185,715.07
199,962.84
195,150.17
207,027.40
215,926.89
217,085.39
224,327.25
235,267.61
246,898.27
227,881.69
209,332.38
197,121.79
163,562.84
162,304.15
175,354.18
177,811.54
158,216.87
183,108.57
190,451.09
203,285.03
227,731.16
175,289.08
222,019.95

Error
-34,757.68
-15,162.38
-2,908.53
-25,286.11
4,937.14
-12,927.76
-192.70
-20,184.09
-49,916.76
-47,662.70
-37,757.76
-48,717.07
-14,062.84
-7,103.17
-20,741.40
5,089.11
781.61
-19,592.25
-21,131.61
-23,676.27
-15,869.69
-1,661.38
13,109.21
30,860.16
-169.15
5,368.82
18,883.46
30,865.13
23,883.43
28,162.91
47,197.97
51,322.84
12,614.92
57,029.05

Series % Change
11.70%
9.02%
-19.34%
31.26%
-8.40%
4.44%
3.82%
-2.73%
-9.67%
18.50%
-21.30%
35.70%
1.15%
-0.94%
18.64%
-1.42%
-6.03%
4.59%
4.24%
-5.02%
-2.05%
1.23%
-7.52%
-16.61%
11.46%
8.84%
-3.87%
9.47%
5.61%
14.58%
11.41%
-32.66%
48.51%

Forecast % Change
-2.61%
0.56%
-5.18%
6.43%
2.27%
-3.53%
16.21%
13.43%
-8.46%
8.88%
-12.33%
7.67%
-2.41%
6.09%
4.30%
0.54%
3.34%
4.88%
4.94%
-7.70%
-8.14%
-5.83%
-17.02%
-0.77%
8.04%
1.40%
-11.02%
15.73%
4.01%
6.74%
12.03%
-23.03%
26.66%

Cumulative Error
-34,757.68
-24,960.03
-17,609.53
-19,528.67
-14,635.51
-14,350.89
-12,328.29
-13,310.26
-17,377.65
-20,406.16
-21,983.58
-24,211.37
-23,430.71
-22,264.46
-22,162.92
-20,459.67
-19,210.18
-19,231.41
-19,331.42
-19,548.66
-19,373.47
-18,568.38
-17,191.09
-15,188.96
-14,588.16
-13,820.59
-12,609.33
-11,056.67
-9,851.84
-8,584.68
-6,785.24
-4,969.36
-4,436.50
-2,628.69

Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Avg
Max
Min
StDev
Var
Median

249,364.00
250,897.00
193,105.25
279,054.00
128,270.00
38,672.90
1,495,592,910.42
188,564.50

204,500.78
206,384.66
193,105.25
246,898.27
153,556.11
25,441.81
647,285,700.05
194,860.44

44,863.22
44,512.34
0.00
57,029.05
-49,916.76
29,125.71
848,307,210.37
-927.04

-10.64%
0.61%
3.05%
48.51%
-32.66%
15.84%
2.51%
1.23%

-7.89%
0.92%
1.12%
26.66%
-23.03%
9.96%
0.99%
1.40%

-1,271.78
0.00
-15,611.77
0.00
-34,757.68
7,437.14
55,311,035.77
-17,284.37

Audit Trail -- ANOVA Table (Multiple Regression Selected)

Source of variation
Regression
Error
Total

SS
22,654,999,501.88
29,690,752,362.87
52,345,751,864.75

df
1
34
35

MS
22,654,999,501.88
873,257,422.44

SEE
29,550.93

Audit Trail -- Coefficient Table (Multiple Regression Selected)

Series Description
Yamaha (VD)
Merek Lain

Included in model
Dependent
Yes

Coefficient
67,370.85
0.46

Standard error
25,172.10
0.09

T-test

P-value
2.68
5.09

Elasticity
0.01
0.00

Audit Trail -- Correlation Coefficient Table

Series Description
Yamaha (VD)
Merek Lain

Included in model
Dependent
Yes

Yamaha (VD)

Merek Lain
1.00
0.66

0.66
1.00

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
R-Square
Method Statistics
Method Selected

Value
12.27%
43.28%

Forecast Statistics
Mean
Standard Deviation

Value
Multiple Regression

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item
Data range selected
Time scale for data
Periods to forecast
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated

Value
[Pertemuan 6.xlsx]Regresi Sederhana'!$A$17:$C$53
Monthly
6.00
No

0.65

Replace Outliers Standard Deviations

Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeroes
Remove Trailing Zeroes
Use Holdback Evaluation
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected
Report Details
Run Date: 10/17/2016 1:42:34 PM
Author: labfe
Note:

No

No
No
No
No

Multiple Regression

009

Jan-2010

Apr-2010

Cumulative MAPE
26.62%
15.91%
10.81%
9.34%
7.59%
6.56%
5.62%
5.11%
4.92%
4.75%
4.50%
4.37%
4.08%
3.81%
3.60%
3.39%
3.19%
3.04%
2.91%
2.79%
2.67%
2.55%
2.45%
2.38%
2.28%
2.20%
2.13%
2.08%
2.02%
1.97%
1.92%
1.88%
1.83%
1.79%

1.76%
1.72%
4.63%
26.62%
1.72%
4.79%
0.23%
2.97%

Overall F-test
25.94

Value
193,105.25
38,672.90