Date

Honda
Yamaha (DV
Suzuki
Kawasaki Others
1/7/2008
208130
185900
73043
2285
3702
2/7/2008
206748
188047
63553
2720
3716
3/7/2008
227590
186286
68320
3025
3525
4/7/2008
254272
221016
60607
3043
3812
5/7/2008
250891
217867
66202
3295
3855
6/7/2008
258823
204735
73614
3412
4078
7/7/2008
278823
214136
76001
4536
4261
8/7/2008
300585
223222
80552
4937
2736
9/7/2008
263094
212012
75047
5250
4234
10/7/2008
222012
207671
79644
3744
2052
11/7/2008
230544
210231
46200
3179
1084
12/7/2008
173849
194423
30975
3264
239
1/7/2009
179685
162135
22369
3016
531
2/7/2009
200486
180723
29576
3219
583
3/7/2009
204352
196695
30771
3661
402
4/7/2009
155789
189082
36901
3834
225
5/7/2009
208266
206992
36074
6000
318
6/7/2009
216876
218614
42425
7009
250
7/7/2009
241028
250483
46886
6171
270
8/7/2009
292076
279054
48437
6611
175
9/7/2009
199285
187904
30270
4022
146
10/7/2009
292338
279049
38065
4313
214
11/7/2009
252998
249364
39367
4446
177
12/7/2009
258100
250897
36998
5848
122
1/7/2010
216176
239340
40225
5919
1420
2/7/2010
242865
250894
37064
6007
1420
3/7/2010
291257
269041
39007
7072
2314
4/7/2010
304529
308418
35228
5874
1764
5/7/2010
318173
274325
41536
5976
1859
6/7/2010
292778
298708
51519
7665
1844

Tracking
Report
Dates
Jan-2008
Feb-2008
Mar-2008
Apr-2008
May-2008
Jun-2008
Jul-2008
Aug-2008
Sep-2008
Oct-2008
Nov-2008
Dec-2008
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009
Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009
Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010
May-2010
Jun-2010
Jul-2010
Aug-2010
Sep-2010
Oct-2010
Nov-2010
Dec-2010
Jan-2011
Feb-2011
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
May-2011
Jun-2011

Actual

Forecast
185,900.00
188,047.00
186,286.00
221,016.00
217,867.00
204,735.00
214,136.00
223,222.00
212,012.00
207,671.00
210,231.00
194,423.00
162,135.00
180,723.00
196,695.00
189,082.00
206,992.00
218,614.00
250,483.00
279,054.00
187,904.00
279,049.00
249,364.00
250,897.00
239,340.00
250,894.00
269,041.00
308,418.00
274,325.00
298,708.00

Fitted Values191,544.43
171,083.99
176,759.44
211,268.61
208,583.93
211,156.74
230,859.30
251,368.85
225,962.30
193,521.13
210,837.91
182,401.66
186,771.76
199,100.13
204,933.15
172,324.77
222,388.28
233,078.51
241,377.50
277,986.81
205,163.79
265,628.38
240,186.38
254,563.39
221,894.34
241,352.34
277,259.30
280,756.29
287,831.59
279,319.03
279,319.03
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77

Yamaha (DV)

350,000.00
300,000.00
250,000.00
200,000.00
150,000.00
100,000.00
50,000.00
0.00
Jan-2008

Apr-2008

Jul-2008

Oct-2008

Jan-2009

Apr-2009

Actual

Jul-2009

Oct-2009

Forecast

Jan-2010

Fitted Values

Multiple Regression -- Result Formula

Yamaha (DV) = 56,665.55 + ( (Honda ) * 0.661364 ) + ( (Suzuki) * -0.374307 ) + ( (Kawasaki) * 7.09 ) + ( (Others) * -3.26 )
Forecast -- Multiple Regression Selected
Date
Jul-2010
Aug-2010
Sep-2010
Oct-2010
Nov-2010
Dec-2010
Jan-2011
Feb-2011
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
May-2011
Jun-2011

Monthly
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77

Forecast
Quarterly

Annual

849,524.31

849,524.31

849,524.31

849,524.31

1,699,048.62

Apr-2010

Jul-2010

Oct-2010

Jan-2011

Apr-2011

Total
Avg
Max
Min

3,398,097.24
283,174.77
283,174.77
283,174.77

849,524.31
849,524.31
849,524.31

1,699,048.62
1,699,048.62
1,699,048.62

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of
The data has a standard deviation of
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by

5.97%
37,944.53
84.69%

Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis
Series:Yamaha (DV)
Dates
Jan-2008
Feb-2008
Mar-2008
Apr-2008
May-2008
Jun-2008
Jul-2008
Aug-2008
Sep-2008
Oct-2008
Nov-2008
Dec-2008
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009
Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009
Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010

Original Data
185,900.00
188,047.00
186,286.00
221,016.00
217,867.00
204,735.00
214,136.00
223,222.00
212,012.00
207,671.00
210,231.00
194,423.00
162,135.00
180,723.00
196,695.00
189,082.00
206,992.00
218,614.00
250,483.00
279,054.00
187,904.00
279,049.00
249,364.00
250,897.00
239,340.00
250,894.00
269,041.00
308,418.00

Fitted Data
171,083.99
176,759.44
191,544.43
211,268.61
208,583.93
211,156.74
230,859.30
251,368.85
225,962.30
193,521.13
210,837.91
182,401.66
186,771.76
199,100.13
204,933.15
172,324.77
222,388.28
233,078.51
241,377.50
277,986.81
205,163.79
265,628.38
240,186.38
254,563.39
221,894.34
241,352.34
277,259.30
280,756.29

Error
14,816.01
11,287.56
-5,258.43
9,747.39
9,283.07
-6,421.74
-16,723.30
-28,146.85
-13,950.30
14,149.87
-606.91
12,021.34
-24,636.76
-18,377.13
-8,238.15
16,757.23
-15,396.28
-14,464.51
9,105.50
1,067.19
-17,259.79
13,420.62
9,177.62
-3,666.39
17,445.66
9,541.66
-8,218.30
27,661.71

Series % Change
1.15%
-0.94%
18.64%
-1.42%
-6.03%
4.59%
4.24%
-5.02%
-2.05%
1.23%
-7.52%
-16.61%
11.46%
8.84%
-3.87%
9.47%
5.61%
14.58%
11.41%
-32.66%
48.51%
-10.64%
0.61%
-4.61%
4.83%
7.23%
14.64%

Forecast % Change
3.32%
8.36%
10.30%
-1.27%
1.23%
9.33%
8.88%
-10.11%
-14.36%
8.95%
-13.49%
2.40%
6.60%
2.93%
-15.91%
29.05%
4.81%
3.56%
15.17%
-26.20%
29.47%
-9.58%
5.99%
-12.83%
8.77%
14.88%
1.26%

Cumulative Error
14,816.01
13,051.79
6,948.38
7,648.13
7,975.12
5,575.65
2,390.08
-1,427.03
-2,818.51
-1,121.67
-1,074.87
16.48
-1,879.93
-3,058.30
-3,403.62
-2,143.57
-2,923.14
-3,564.33
-2,897.49
-2,699.26
-3,392.62
-2,628.38
-2,115.08
-2,179.71
-1,394.70
-974.07
-1,242.37
-210.09

May-2010
Jun-2010
Avg
Max
Min
StDev
Var
Median

274,325.00
298,708.00
225,242.13
308,418.00
162,135.00
37,944.53
1,439,787,606.67
216,001.50

287,831.59
279,319.03
225,242.13
287,831.59
171,083.99
34,918.32
1,219,289,302.36
222,141.31

-13,506.59
19,388.97
0.00
27,661.71
-28,146.85
14,849.19
220,498,304.31
230.14

-11.05%
8.89%
2.54%
48.51%
-32.66%
13.81%
1.91%
1.23%

2.52%
-2.96%
2.45%
29.47%
-26.20%
12.44%
1.55%
3.32%

-668.59
0.00
486.81
14,816.01
-3,564.33
4,916.17
24,168,749.73
-1,318.54

Audit Trail -- ANOVA Table (Multiple Regression Selected)

Source of variation
Regression
Error
Total

SS
35,359,389,768.45
6,394,450,825.01
41,753,840,593.47

df
4
25
29

MS
8,839,847,442.11
255,778,033.00

SEE
15,993.06

Audit Trail -- Coefficient Table (Multiple Regression Selected)

Series Description
Honda
Yamaha (DV)
Suzuki
Kawasaki
Others

Included in model
Yes
Dependent
Yes
Yes
Yes

Coefficient

Standard error

0.66
56,665.55
-0.37
7.09
-3.26

T-test

0.10
19,094.16
0.30
2.74
3.66

P-value
6.74
2.97
-1.24
2.59
-0.89

Elasticity
0.00
0.01
0.23
0.02
0.38

0.71
-0.08
0.15
-0.02

Audit Trail -- Correlation Coefficient Table

Series Description
Honda
Yamaha (DV)
Suzuki
Kawasaki
Others

Included in model
Yes
Dependent
Yes
Yes
Yes

Honda

Yamaha (DV)
1.00
0.80
0.29
0.52
0.29

Suzuki
0.80
1.00
-0.13
0.75
-0.14

Kawasaki
0.29
-0.13
1.00
-0.22
0.83

Others
0.52
0.75
-0.22
1.00
-0.29

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
R-Square
Method Statistics
Method Selected
ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Value
5.97%
84.69%
Value
Multiple Regression

Forecast Statistics
Mean
Standard Deviation

0.29
-0.14
0.83
-0.29
1.00

Item
Data range selected
Time scale for data
Periods to forecast
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeroes
Remove Trailing Zeroes
Use Holdback Evaluation
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected
Report Details
Run Date: 10/24/2016 1:43:10 PM
Author: labfe
Note:

Value
[Pertemuan 7.xlsx]Regresi Berganda'!$A$15:$F$45
Monthly
12.00
No

No

No
No
No
No

Multiple Regression

2010

Jan-2011

Apr-2011

Cumulative MAPE
7.97%
5.49%
3.97%
3.25%
2.77%
2.40%
2.22%
2.14%
1.98%
1.85%
1.68%
1.59%
1.55%
1.50%
1.41%
1.36%
1.31%
1.25%
1.20%
1.14%
1.11%
1.07%
1.03%
0.99%
0.96%
0.93%
0.90%
0.88%

0.85%
0.83%
1.92%
7.97%
0.83%
1.54%
0.02%
1.39%

Overall F-test
34.56

Value
225,242.13
37,944.53