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Devon Maguire
Dr. Suver
CSE 300.03
17 November 2016
Discovering the Invasiveness of a Nonnative Species
There are many reasons to introduce a new species into a foreign habitat; to help control
pests, as a food resource, or to discourage the spread of a harmful species. However it is very
hard to predict exactly how the species will spread once it is released. Temperature, available
food resources, potential predators, and possible nesting areas are just a few of the many things
that can affect a species ability to invade new habitats. Though comprehensive studies analyze
how a single invasive species survives, little has been done to compare how different species
come to thrive in foreign areas. I propose a plan to gather information on how several invasive
species survive in their nonnative habitats in order to extrapolate a better model to predict the
potential invasiveness of a different species.
Many invasive species have been studied in-depth before but often it is only after the
species becomes invasive that researchers start to analyze them. For example, the study done by
C Lawton et al. of the brushtail possum in New Zealand and the grey squirrel in England
comprehensively reviews the animals effects on the ecosystems they invade. However, Lawton
et al. fails to mention how the species survive in their native habitats or why they became
invasive to begin with. An improvement to this study would be the research of Howard Parker et
al. in their study concerning the effects of the North American beaver on the Eurasian beaver.
Though this study also fails to mention how the North American beaver survives in its natural

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habitat, Parker et al. examines why the species became invasive and how it may be dealt with in
the future. Information gathering studies such as these then lead to the application of
mathematical models which aim to predict or prevent the invasiveness of a species.
Michael H. Thomas and Alan Randall focus on one such basic model which suggest two
possible ways for dealing with an invasive species. Another model done by Matthew Johnston
and Sam Purkis was able to correctly identify which fish out of a group of eleven would become
invasive. However the introduction of the fish to their nonnative habitats had already taken place
and the model was not expanded to apply to fish in other areas. Finally Phaedra Budy et al.
studied the relationship between how a species survives in their native habitat versus their nonnative one. This study found that a species ability to survive in its natural habitat is not a good
indication of how it will survive in other areas of the world. The research that I am proposing
will look at how a species survives in any habitat including its own. I will avoid limiting the
scope of the study to one species and instead focus on the mammalian class. In this way the
research will extend other models, gathering information about mammalian species in different
areas of the world for the purpose of accurately predicting a different species invasiveness.
The research will begin by gathering a list of invasive species from official government
sites. Initially the research will focus on mammalian animals in similar wooded habitats. This list
will then be divided into groups of animals to be observed by different scholars in the field. Each
researcher will observe a species in its non-native and native habitat, recording its eating and
nesting habits as well as its ability to compete for certain resources or defend itself against other
opposing species. Similar research will be conducted on the species inhabited areas, including

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gathering information on temperature ranges, seasonal changes, availability of resources at
specific times of year, and known predators in the area.
After the initial data has been gathered it will be entered into a computer formula that
calculates the correlations between different attributes of the species and the habitats they are
known to live in. These correlations will be used to find what factors contribute the most to a
species success in each environment they were studied in. The model will also analyze the
similarities between species to pick out the most common traits that thrive in specific habitats.
Using this information I will create a model to predict which species will thrive in certain
habitats. The model will not know which species are invasive and in this way can be tested by
observing if the model can accurately predict which species have become invasive where. If the
model predicts correctly, or within a small margin of error, for each case then the model will be
tested with a new species that is an invader but has not yet become a destructive invasive species.
This species will be monitored to see if the model is accurately able to predict its invasiveness
over time. If the model correctly predicts this species ability to survive in the foreign habitat
then the research will give us a valuable tool in preventing species from becoming invasive in the
future.
The study will take place over a five year period, with two years for observational
research, a year to build out and test the computer model, and another two years to observe the
outcome of the final test case. The initial observations will take place in various locations around
the world, but collaborative researchers with close proximity to the species will be utilized to
limit travel costs for the study. Overall at least a dozen species will be observed and twice as

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many people will be needed to complete the observations, as well as a computer technician for
the final computer model.
This research will contribute to previous studies of invasive species by broadening the
range of observations and including many species in one study. Instead of focusing on one
known outcome, the model will be able to use previous observations to predict the invasive
outcome of new species that have never spread before. It will be able to connect similarities
between species and the environments they live in and as such will give us a valuable tool in
preventing species from becoming invasive in the future.

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Bibliography
Budy, Phaedra, et al. "Limitation And Facilitation Of One Of The World's Most Invasive Fish:
An Intercontinental Comparison." Ecology 2 (2013): AGRIS. Web. 17 Oct. 2016.
Johnston, M.W. ( 1 ), and S.J. ( 2 ) Purkis. "Forecasting The Success Of Invasive Marine
Species; Lessons Learned From Purposeful Reef Fish Releases In The Hawaiian Islands.
Fisheries Research 174.(2016): 190-200. Scopus. Web. 17 Oct. 2016.
Lawton, C, et al. "The Consequences Of Introducing Non-Indigenous Species: Two Case
Studies, The Grey Squirrel In Europe And The Brushtail Possum In New Zealand.
Revue Scientifique Et Technique-Office International Des Epizooties 29.2 (n.d.):
287-297. Science Citation Index. Web. 17 Oct. 2016.
Parker, Howard, et al. "Invasive North American Beaver Castor Canadensis In Eurasia: A
Review Of Potential Consequences And A Strategy For Eradication." Wildlife Biology 4
(2012): 354. InfoTrac Junior Edition. Web. 17 Oct. 2016.
Thomas, MH, and A Randall. "Intentional Introductions Of Nonindigenous Species: A Principal
Agent Model And Protocol For Revocable Decisions." Ecological Economics 34.3 (n.d.):
333-345. Science Citation Index. Web. 17 Oct. 2016.