The Chicago Debate League

Blue Conference
Novice Division
Affirmative Previewed Cases
Contents
ApocalypseNow(Westinghouse)...................................................................................................1
InternationalSpaceStation(St.Ignatius)........................................................................................3
KoreanReunification(PCSJoslin)..................................................................................................5
MilitarytoMilitaryExchange(PhoenixMilitaryAcademy)..........................................................7
TCBMs(VonSteuben)....................................................................................................................9

Apocalypse Now (Westinghouse)

Exact Plan Text:
Thus the Plan: The USFG should privately negotiate an agreement with the PRC
which withdraws US troops from South Korea in exchange for Chinese facilitation of
Korean unification. Our Kydd evidence clarifies specific intent.

Advantages/Harms (with explanation):

Collapse: North Korea's government is in a perilous position, with internal factors making
imminent collapse likely. This makes nuclear war a likely outcome, with multiple scenarios all
leading to that point, from Kim provoking conflict in an attempt to rally support at home, to a
sudden government collapse causing simultaneous invasion by China and US + S Korean forces,
to the chaos of a collapse allowing nukes to disappear across borders and into the hands of
terrorists whose use of them provokes a nuclear exchange. Any nuclear exchange that begins on
the Korean peninsula, even a small one, risks extinction and dramatic climate change.
US-China relations: Cooperation over North Korea is key to US-China relations, which are on the
brink now. Cooperation is key to solving all important global issues, from terrorism to climate
change.
Human Rights: North Korea is the world's worst human rights violator.

Solvency Mechanisms:
Korean unification and US force removal solve for nuclear brinksmanship on the Korean
peninsula and the risk of a US-China war over possession of North Korea. A planned unification
would also secure North Korean nuclear sites without the chaos of a conflict, preventing loss of
WMDs to non-state actors.
The removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula solves a long-standing Chinese worry about
US intentions and dramatically improves Sino-American relations. Plus the negotiation itself
creates a framework for resolving sensitive issues.
Any change in government would be a human rights improvement for North Koreans, but South
Korea is also a modern liberal democracy.

1AC Cite List:

In alphabetical order. When multiple page ranges are given, the author is cited multiple times (once for each page
range listed).
Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at
the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects, Studies in Conflict &
Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

Brunstrom, David. 9/27/2016. U.S., Japan, South Korea consider more steps against North Korea: U.S.
Reuters. Online: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-usa-japan-idUSKCN11X2C8 Accessed
9/27/16

Cohen et al. 9 William S. Cohen, Chairman and CEO of The Cohen Groupa strategic business consulting firm, served as Secretary of
Defense from 1997 until 2001, served in the U.S. Senate from 1979 to 1997 and in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1975 to 1979, et al.,
2009 (Smart Power in U.S.-China Relations, Smart Power in U.S.-China Relations: A Report of the CSIS Commission on China, March,
Available Online at http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090304_mcgiffert_uschinasmartpower_web.pdf, Accessed 08-13-2012, p. 1)

Crouch, Hannah. 9/25/2016. KIM BOMB-UN North Korea warns UN it is preparing for nuclear war with the US that will erupt over

tensions with the South. The Sun. Online: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1848824/north-korea-warns-un-it-is-preparing-for-nuclear-war-with-theus-that-will-erupt-over-tensions-with-the-south/ Accessed 9/27/2016.

Fisher, Max. 9/10/2016. North Korea, Far From Crazy, Is All Too Rational. The New York Times. Online:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-missile-programs-rational.html?_r=0
Accessed 9/28/2016.

Gady 16 Franz-Stefan Gady, Senior Fellow and Foreign Policy Analyst at the East-West Institute, Editor at The Diplomat, M.A. in

International Relations from John Hopkins University, B.A. in International Relations from Weber University, 2016 (Sino-U.S. Cooperation Over
North Korea Is Now More Important Than Ever, Huffington Post, March 28th, Available Online at

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/franzstefan-gady/sinous-cooperation-over-n_b_9548182.html,
Accessed Apr. 23, 2016)

Gibney, 2008 [Mark, he Belk Distinguished Professor at the University of North Carolina-Asheville. His latest book is International Human
Rights Law: Returning to Universal Principles, Responsibilities for Protecting Human Rights, February, https://global-

ejournal.org/2008/02/15/gibney/]
Hayes and Hamel-Green 9 Peter Hayes, Honorary Professor, Center for International Security Studies,
& Michael Hamel-Green, professor in social sciences in the College of Arts at Victoria University Melbourne,
2009 (The Path Not Taken, The Way Still Open: Denuclearizing The Korean Peninsula And Northeast Asia, Dec.
14, 2009. Retrieved Apr. 24, 2016 from http://apjjf.org/-Peter-Hayes/3267/article.html)

Human Rights Watch, 2015

[Human Rights Watch is a nonprofit, nongovernmental human rights organization made up of roughly 400 staff members around the
globe. Its staff consists of human rights professionals including country experts, lawyers, journalists, and academics of diverse backgrounds and nationalities, World Report 2015: North
Korea,

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country-chapters/north-korea ]

Jianmin 15 Wu Jianmin, Former President of China Foreign Affairs University; Member, Berggruen Institutes 21st Century Council,
2015 (Cooperation on Curbing Nukes and Climate Change Strengthens U.S.-China Link, Huffington Post, June 16th, Available Online at
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/wu-jianmin/china-us-nukes-climate-change_b_7079932.html, CMR)

Kydd 15 Andrew H. Kydd, Professor of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin, former Assistant Professor and Associate Professor
in the Department of Government at Harvard University, holds a Ph. D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago, 2015 (Pulling the
Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?, The Washington Quarterly, Summer, Available Online at

https://twq.elliott.gwu.edu/sites/twq.elliott.gwu.edu/files/downloads/Kydd_Summer
%202015.pdf, Accessed 0-19-2016, p. 66-67, 68, 69, 73-75, AS)
Lieber and Press 13 (Keir and Daryl, Associate Professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of

Government at Georgetown University + Associate Professor in the Government Department at Dartmouth College and Coordinator of War and
Peace Studies at Dartmouths John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding, "The Next Korean War," April 1,
http://www.saintjoehigh.com/ourpages/auto/2013/4/9/40831690/13-0401%20The%20Next%20Korean%20War.pdf)

Lind 2015 - Prof of government at Dartmouth

Jennifer, "Korean Unification: Before the Bonanza," Feb 12, http://38north.org/2015/02/jlind021215/

Metz 13 (Steven, Chairman of the Regional Strategy and Planning Department and Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the
Strategic Studies Institute, 3/13/13, Strategic Horizons: Thinking the Unthinkable on a Second Korean War,
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12786/strategic-horizons-thinking-the-unthinkable-on-a-second-korean-war)

New York Times 2012 (Kenneth Brill and Kenneth Luongo. March 15. Nuclear Terrorism: A Clear Danger.
Accessed online: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/16/opinion/nuclear-terrorism-a-clear-danger.html?_r=0)

Wittner 11 Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York at
Albany, holds a Ph.D. in History from Columbia University, 2011 (Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?,
Huntington News, November 28th, Available Online at http://www.huntingtonnews.net/14446, Accessed 02-072013)

Yuwen and Ting 7/19/2016 Deng Yuwen, a researcher at the Charhar Institute think tank, a
commentary writer and former Deputy Editor of the Central Party Schools journal, Study Times, and Huang
Ting, a researcher at the Innovation and Development Institute, Shenzhen, 2016 ("Collapse of the North Korean
regime appears inevitable, and the world needs to prepare for it," South China Morning Post, July 19th, Available
Online
at
http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1946189/collapse-north-korean-regimeappears-inevitable-and-world, Accessed 07-25-2016, AS)

International Space Station (St. Ignatius)

Exact Plan Text:
TheUnitedStatesfederalgovernmentshouldsubstantiallyincreaseitsdiplomatic
engagementwiththePeoplesRepublicofChinabyinvitingthePeoplesRepublicof
ChinatobecomeapartnerontheInternationalSpaceStation.

Advantages/Harms (with explanation):

Advantage1:SpaceMilitarization
TensionbetweenChinaandUSarehighrightnowregardingmilitarytechnologyinspace.That
tensionwouldleadtoaspacearmsrace.Destructionoftelecommunicationsatellitesfromspace
debriswillleadtospillovertoanuclearwaronEarth.NuclearWarleadstoextinction.
Advantage2:SpaceExploration
ISSistheonlyeffectiveplacetoresearchsustainabilitytechnology.Specifically,workingwith
ChinawillhelpdeveloptheabilitytoharvestHelium3fromthemoonwhichwillhelpmake
nucleartechnologymoreefficient.NuclearTechnologyisneededtostoptheeffectsofGlobal
warmingweareseeingnow.

Solvency Mechanisms:
ChinawillagreetobeingpartofISSandcooperationwillbuildtrustandreducetensions

1AC Cite List:

LiboLiu,2016.StaffWriter,VoiceofAmericaNews.NASAChief:CongressShouldReviseUSChina

Space
CooperationLawMay24,2016.<http://www.voanews.com/content/nasacongressuschinaspacecooperation
law/3344926.html>accessedJune25,2016.

WeedenandHe4/26(BrianandXiao,BrianWeedenistheTechnicalAdviserattheSecure
WorldFoundationinWashington,D.C.,XiaoHeisanAssistantResearchFellowattheInstitute
ofWorldEconomicsandPoliticsintheChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,4.26.16,Waron
theRocks,UseOuterSpacetoStrengthenU.S.ChinaTies,
http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/useouterspacetostrengthenuschinaties/,Accessed:
7.12.16)VW

WeedenandHe4/26(BrianandXiao,BrianWeedenistheTechnicalAdviserattheSecureWorld
FoundationinWashington,D.C.,XiaoHeisanAssistantResearchFellowattheInstituteofWorldEconomicsand
PoliticsintheChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,4.26.16,WarontheRocks,UseOuterSpacetoStrengthen
U.S.ChinaTies,http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/use

outerspacetostrengthenuschinaties/,Accessed:
7.12.16)VW

OmarLamrani2016.SeniorMilitaryAnalyst,Stratfor.AvoidingaWarinSpaceStratfor
GeopoliticalWeekly.May17,2016.<https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/avoidingwarspace>
accessedMay25,2016.
JamesClayMoltz2014.Professor,NavalPostgraduateSchool.CrowdedOrbits:Conflictand
CooperationinSpace.2014ColumbiaUniversityPress.p170.accessedJune12,2016.
Prof.AlanRobock,pub.date:2008,aProf.intheDepartmentofEnvironmentalSciences@
RutgersUniversitywhoparticipatedintheoriginalnuclearwinterresearch,ClimaticEffectsof
NuclearConflict,accessed:21509,
http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/RobockToonSummary.pdf
HauserandJohn9[Marty,VP,WashingtonOperations,ResearchandAnalysis,andMariel,
researchanalystattheSpaceFoundation,SpaceFoundation,2009,TheInternationalSpace
Station:Decision2015,http://www.spacefoundation.org/docs/ISS_Decision_2015.pdf]
HarrisonH.Schmitt2009.FormerU.S.senatorandNASAastronautwhoflewontheApollo
17mission,chairedtheNASAAdvisoryCouncilfrom20052008.LibertyandSpace
LeadershipSpaceNews.August10,2009.<http://spacenews.com/libertyandspace
leadership/>accessedJune25,2016.
ChristopherBarnatt2014AssociateProfessorofStrategyandFutureStudiesinNottingham
UniversityBusinessSchool.Helium3PowerGenerationExplainingthefuture.comis
writtenandmaintainedbyChristopherBarnattafuturist,author,videographer
http://www.explainingthefuture.com/helium3.html(ConnorW.Forbeck/MoState)
RichardSchiffman13,environmentalwriter@TheAtlanticcitingtheFifthIntergovernmental
PanelonClimateChange,WhatLeadingScientistsWantYoutoKnowAboutToday's
FrighteningClimateReport,TheAtlantic,9/27,
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/09/leadingscientistsweighinonthe
motherofallclimatereports/280045/

Aliberti 15 [Marco, Resident Fellow at the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI),
SIOI/ASI/CNR-ISGI Master on Space Policy and Institutions, Rome, masters degree in
International Relations of Asia and Africa, Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Naples,
When China Goes To The Moon, Studies in Space Policy, Volume 11, edited by the European
Space Policy Institute, Springer International Publishing: Switzerland, 2015, p. 237-240]
YunZhao2013.AssociateProfessorofInternationalLawattheUniversityofHongKong.
LegalIssuesofChinasPossibleParticipationintheInternationalSpaceStation:Comparingto
theRussianExperienceVIJournalofEastAsiaandInternationalLaw12013.P.155174.
AccessedJune6,2014.

Lan 16 analyst, thespacereview.com (Chen, One track, two stations: A proposal for
cooperation on the ISS and the Chinese Space Station, The Space Review, March 14, 2016,
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2944/1//dmeth)

Korean Reunification (PCS Joslin)

Exact Plan Text:
The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its
diplomatic engagement with the Peoples Republic of China by offering to
withdraw the US military presence from Korea in exchange for China securing
peaceful unification of the Korean peninsula.
Advantages/Harms (with explanation):
Korean War Two scenarios: North Korean Aggression leads to a massive conventional and
possibly nuclear war against South Korea, or an inevitable North Korean collapse leads to
proliferation of North Korean nukes and use of North Korean weapons of mass destruction
against South Korea, killing millions and possibly resulting in extinction.
Korean Regime Change North Korea is literally the worst place on Earth, and its millions
of subjects are effectively slaves subject to torture, persecution, and murder. There is a
moral obligation to support any plan that has a chance of ending the North Korean regime
and its crimes against humanity.

Solvency Mechanisms:
China will agree to the plan because it is already ready to take action against
North Korea but refuses to do so in the status quo out of fear of US troops in
Korea. Chinas cooperation is the key to achieving disarmament and peaceful
reunification.
1AC Cite List:
Revere15(EvansRevere,formerpresidentandCEOofTheKoreaSocietyandseniordirectoroftheAlbright

StonebridgeGroup,KoreanReunificationandU.S.Interests:PreparingforOneKorea,presentedatthe3rdKoreaResearch
InstituteforSecurityBrookingsJointConferenceonCooperatingforRegionalStabilityintheProcessofKoreanUnification:
ContingencyPreparationswiththeROKU.S.asAnchorinSeoul,Korea,publishedbytheBrookingsInstitute,Jan.20,2015,
onlineathttps://www.brookings.edu/ontherecord/koreanreunificationandusinterestspreparingforonekorea/)

VOA 3/7 ("N. Korea Threatens Nuclear Strike, US, S. Korea Begin Drills,"
http://learningenglish.voanews.com/content/joint-us-south-korean-militarydrills-bring-north-korean-threat/3223320.html)

HayesandHamelGreen09PeterHayes,HonoraryProfessor,CenterforInternational

SecurityStudies,&MichaelHamelGreen,professorinsocialsciencesintheCollegeofArtsat
VictoriaUniversityMelbourne,2009(ThePathNotTaken,TheWayStillOpen:Denuclearizing
TheKoreanPeninsulaAndNortheastAsia,Dec.14,2009.RetrievedApr.24,2016from
http://apjjf.org/PeterHayes/3267/article.html)

YuwenandTing16DengYuwen,aresearcherattheCharharInstitutethinktank,a

commentarywriterandformerDeputyEditoroftheCentralPartySchoolsjournal,Study
Times,andHuangTing,aresearcherattheInnovationandDevelopmentInstitute,Shenzhen,
2016("CollapseoftheNorthKoreanregimeappearsinevitable,andtheworldneedstoprepareforit ,"
SouthChinaMorningPost,July19th,AvailableOnlineat
http://www.scmp.com/comment/insightopinion/article/1946189/collapsenorthkoreanregime
appearsinevitableandworld,Accessed07252016,AS)

Lind2015ProfofgovernmentatDartmouth

Jennifer,"KoreanUnification:BeforetheBonanza,"Feb12,
http://38north.org/2015/02/jlind021215/

Kazianis2016formerExectuiveEditoroftheNationalInterest

Harry,"WhytheWorldShouldFearNorthKorea'sBiologicalWeapons,"Jan18,
nationalinterest.org/blog/thebuzz/whytheworldshouldfearnorthkoreasbiologicalweapons
14951

Human Rights Watch 16 [Human Rights Watch is a nonprofit,

nongovernmental human rights organization made up of roughly 400 staff
members around the globe. Its staff consists of human rights professionals
including country experts, lawyers, journalists, and academics of diverse
backgrounds and nationalities, World Report 2015: North Korea,
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country-chapters/north-korea]

Gobry15(PascalEmannuelGobry,FellowattheEthicsandPublicPolicyCenter,Thecase
forinvadingNorthKorea,inTheWeek,Jan.7,2015,onlineat
http://theweek.com/articles/441214/caseinvadingnorthkorea).

Andrew Kydd in 15 is a professor in the Department of Political Science,

University of Wisconsin-Madison, Washington Quarterly, Pulling the Plug: Can
There Be a Deal With China on Korean Unificiation?
https://twq.elliott.gwu.edu/sites/twq.elliott.gwu.edu/files/downloads/Kydd_Su
mmer%202015.pdf DOA: 4-13-16
Lyle Goldstein, 2015, Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging
US-China Rivalry (p. 212). Georgetown University Press. Kindle Edition. Prof.
Lyle J. Goldstein is an associate professor in the China Maritime Studies
Institute (CMSI), which was established at U.S. Naval War College in October
2006 to improve mutual understanding and maritime cooperation with
China. He served as the founding director of CMSI from 2006 to 2011.

Military to Military Exchange (Phoenix Military

Academy)
Exact Plan Text:
PLAN The United States should establish guaranteed annual
military-to-military exchanges with the Peoples Republic of
China demanding that China abandon military expansionism in
the South China Seas.

Advantages/Harms (with explanation):

Advantage One Salami-Slicing

South China Sea conflict is highly likely confrontation is
inevitable changing Chinese strategy makes a US-China
war highly likelyBlain 15
The conflict will start by miscalculation and escalate Kim
16
Great Power War will result Kim 16
US-Sino conflict would escalate and go nuclear Cunningham
& Fravel 15
SCS conflict will destroy the global economy Blain 15
That causes wars around the globe that go nuclear Freeman
14

Advantage Two Military Engagement

The US and China meeting in military-military exchanges
but they are currently tied to political issues. Establishing
permanent ones allows them to avoid crisis. Kamphausen &
Drun 16
Mil-Mil engagement boosts overall US-Sino relations
prevents unrelated issue spillover Kamphausen & Drun 16
Specifically centering that contact around the SCS boosts
overall relations Thayer 13
US-China nuclear war will destroy the planet only improved
relations prevent it Wittner 12
Solvency Mechanisms:

 Absent constant engagement war is inevitable Denmark

14
Constant military engagement is key the US must let China
know that they will NEVER accept maritime expansion. Quirk
11 9 15
1AC Cite List:
Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies at the Australian Defence College,
Commanding Officer of the 6th Battalion, The Royal Australian Regiment
[Jason Blain, The Dragon and The Eagle in the South China Sea: is conflict
between China and the US inevitable?, Australian Defence Journal, Jul/Aug
2015] doa 5-6-16

Assistant Professor at the Institute of International Studies, Bradley University

[Kim, Jihyun. "Possible Future of the Contest in the South China Sea." The
Chinese Journal of International Politics (2016)] doa 5-11-16

Assistant Professor at the Institute of International Studies, Bradley University

[Kim, Jihyun. "Possible Future of the Contest in the South China Sea." The
Chinese Journal of International Politics (2016)] doa 5-11-16

Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science and member of the

Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology &
Associate Professor of Political Science and member of the Security Studies
Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology [Fiona S. and M. Taylor,
Assuring Assured Retaliation: Chinas Nuclear Posture and U.S.-China
Strategic Stability, International Security, Vol. 40, No. 2, Fall, pp. 750]

Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies at the Australian Defence College,
Commanding Officer of the 6th Battalion, The Royal Australian Regiment
[Jason Blain, The Dragon and The Eagle in the South China Sea: is conflict
between China and the US inevitable?, Australian Defence Journal, Jul/Aug
2015] doa 5-6-16

Former US Ambassador Chair of Projects International [Chas Freeman, A

New Set of Great Power Relationships, September 13, 2014, Remarks to the
8th International Conference on East Asian Studies]

a. Senior Vice President for Research and Director of the, D.C., office at the
National Bureau of Asian Research, b. Bridge Award Fellow at the National
Bureau of Asian Research [Roy D. Kamphausen & Jessica Drun, Sino-U.S.
Military-to-Military Relations, The national bureau of asian research, nbr
special report #57 | april 2016, Edited by Travis Tanner and Wang Dong,
http://nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/Free/06192016/SR57_USChina_April2016.pdf] doa 5-11-16

a. Senior Vice President for Research and Director of the, D.C., office at the
National Bureau of Asian Research, b. Bridge Award Fellow at the National
Bureau of Asian Research [Roy D. Kamphausen & Jessica Drun, Sino-U.S.
Military-to-Military Relations, The national bureau of asian research, nbr
special report #57 | april 2016, Edited by Travis Tanner and Wang Dong,
http://nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/Free/06192016/SR57_USChina_April2016.pdf] doa 5-11-16

Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales, Australian Defense

Academy [Carlyle, Why China and the US wont go to war over the South
China Sea, East Asia Forum, 13 May 2013,
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-towar-over-the-south-china-sea/]

Professor of History emeritus at SUNY/Albany [Dr. Lawrence Wittner, Is a

Nuclear War With China Possible?, Jan 30, 2012,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-wittner/nuclear-warchina_b_1116556.html] doa 5-10-16

Vice President for Political and Security Affairs at The National Bureau of
Asian Research [Abraham M. Denmark, Could Tensions in the South China Sea
Spark a War?, May 31, 2014, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/couldtensions-the-south-china-sea-spark-war-10572] doa 5-10-16

Lieutenant, US Navy, Young Leader and non-resident WSD-Handa Fellow with

the Pacific Forum CSIS [Sean P. Quirk, Reconciling Chinas PLAN: Strategic
Intervention, Tactical Engagement,
http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/reconciling-chinas-plan-strategicintervention-with-tactical-engagement/] doa 4-20-16

TCBMs (Von Steuben)

Exact Plan Text:
The United States federal government should substantially increase its
diplomatic engagement with the Peoples Republic of China over outer
space transparency and confidence-building measures constituted of
information exchange for space activities, advanced notification for
space policies, and enhanced space situational awareness capabilities
and data exchange.

Advantages/Harms (with explanation):

1.Miscalc
Official US space posture is based in Sinophobic suspicionsrendezvous and
proximity operations are seen as a cover for ASAT testing, destroying
any support for Chinese space security proposals. Tensions are
mounting - the dual-use nature of space technology produces firststrike incentives and risks rapid escalation and miscalculation.
Deterrence fails in spaceambiguity means decision-makers assume
other states have worst-case intentions, causing pre-emptive strikes.
Space conflict goes nuclear and collapses all vital systems crucial to
civilization

2. Space Weather
Cooperation with China is key to fill US data gaps in space weather prediction
and increases strategic understanding of Chinese space assets. Solar
flares are inevitable - better forecasting is crucial to effectively
adapt power grids to geomagnetic storms. Grid collapse causes
extinction. Space Weather events wreck global GPS. Economic decline
causes nuclear war

Solvency Mechanisms:
TCBMs solveinfo sharing clarifies benign intentions of both parties in space
and unseats the culture of secrecy embedded within both national
space programs - this posture shift underpins eventual political
agreements that produce restraint and produce international SSA
collaboration
*Better SSA will resolve the inevitable space arms race between the US and
China co-operation is key
*EngagementisaneffectivestrategyitsvaluedbyChinaandcanspillover

1AC Cite List:

miscalc
Official US space posture is based in Sinophobic suspicionsrendezvous and proximity operations are seen as
a cover for ASAT testing, destroying any support for Chinese space security proposals
Weeden and He 16. (Brian, former U.S. Air Force space and missile operations officer and currently
technical adviser for Secure World Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to the long-term
sustainable use of outer space. Xiao, Assistant Research Fellow, Division of International Strategy,
U.S. Diplomacy and Politics @ Chinese Academy of Social Science, Institute of World Economic and
Politics. "U.S.-China Strategic Relations in Space," US-China Relations in Strategic Domains. The
National Bureau of Asian Research, Report ~2357, April 2016
http://www.nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/Free/06192016/SR57_US-China_April2016.pdf)//CB
*we dont endorse ableist language. edited.
RPO=rendezvous and proximity operations
U.S. perceptions of Chinas development of space capabilities can best be described
AND
significant efforts at bilateral civil space cooperation between the United States and China.

Tensions are mounting - the dual-use nature of space technology produces

first-strike incentives and risks rapid escalation and miscalculation
Weeden and He 16. (Brian, former U.S. Air Force space and missile operations officer and currently
technical adviser for Secure World Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to the long-term
sustainable use of outer space. Xiao, Assistant Research Fellow, Division of International Strategy,
U.S. Diplomacy and Politics @ Chinese Academy of Social Science, Institute of World Economic and
Politics. "U.S.-China Strategic Relations in Space," US-China Relations in Strategic Domains. The
National Bureau of Asian Research, Report ~2357, April 2016.
http://www.nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/Free/06192016/SR57_US-China_April2016.pdf)//CB
The development, testing, and employment of dual-use capabilities. One of
AND
others space assets, which could cause the situation to escalate out of control

*Deterrence fails in spaceambiguity means decision-makers assume other

states have worst-case intentions, causing pre-emptive strikes
Finch 14. (James, Principal Director for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, Office of the
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, where he previously acted as the Principal Director for Space
Policy. "Bringing Space Crisis Stability Down to Earth," National Defense University Press. Joint
Force Quarterly 76. 12/30/2014. http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-76/jfq-75_1520_Finch.pdf)//CB
For the past decade, the strategic community has thought of dependence on space systems
AND
of an adversarys actions. This is a clear recipe for inadvertent miscalculation.

Space conflict goes nuclear and collapses all vital systems crucial to
civilization
Lamrani 16 ~Omar, geopolitical and security analyst for Stratfor, National Interest, "What the U.S.
Military Fears Most: A Massive Space War," May 18, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/thebuzz/what-the-us-military-fears-most-massive-space-war-16248~~
The High Cost of a War in Space: Increased competition in space is reviving
AND
salvo in a nuclear attack, driving the threat of a wider conflagration.

TCBMs solveinfo sharing clarifies benign intentions of both parties in space

and unseats the culture of secrecy embedded within both national
space programs - this posture shift underpins eventual political
agreements that produce restraint and produce international SSA
collaboration
Weeden and He 16. (Brian, former U.S. Air Force space and missile operations officer and currently
technical adviser for Secure World Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to the long-term
sustainable use of outer space. Xiao, Assistant Research Fellow, Division of International Strategy,
U.S. Diplomacy and Politics @ Chinese Academy of Social Science, Institute of World Economic and
Politics. "U.S.-China Strategic Relations in Space," US-China Relations in Strategic Domains. The
National Bureau of Asian Research, Report ~2357, April 2016.
http://www.nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/Free/06192016/SR57_US-China_April2016.pdf)//CB
Transparency and confidence-building mechanisms for managing tensions and crises. The prospects
of
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and improving them will result in positive externalities that will benefit all countries.

*Better SSA will resolve the inevitable space arms race between the US and
China co-operation is key
Moore 11 (Gregory J. Moore is associate professor in the Political Science Department
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Extraterrestrial Sino-US Arms Race", available online via ProQuest, TMP)
A space arms race is somewhat different than a terrestrial one for several reasons,
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would help address some of Chinas concerns about Indias space aspirations as well.

*Engagement is an effective strategyits valued by China and can spill over

to combat new assertiveness.
Hart 15 (Melanie ~Senior Fellow and Director of China Policy at American Progress~, "Assessing
American Foreign Policy Toward China," September 29,
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2015/09/29/122283/assessing-americanforeign-policy-toward-china/)//MA
The United States has pursued an engagement strategy toward China for almost four decades.
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this engagement strategy but expand its tactical toolkit for addressing problematic Chinese behavior.

cooperation

*US-China cooperation is key to effective space weather mitigation measures

Pekkanen 15 - Lob and Gertrud Tamaki professor at the Jackson School of International Studies, in
the University of Washington Seattle, works on the international relations of Japan and Asia, with a
special interest in outer space governance, security, and policy, co-chairs the U.S.-Japan Space
Forum (Saadia, "Frenemies In Space; China Needs To Protect Its Assets, Too", Forbes, August 26,
2015, http://www.forbes.com/sites/saadiampekkanen/2015/08/26/frenemies-in-space-china-needs-toprotect-its-assets-too/~~23727d36512959)
It is common to equate Space Situational Awareness (SSA) only with U.
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be nave, just responsible behavior for the U.S. too.

Cooperation with China is key to fill US data gaps in space weather prediction
and increases strategic understanding of Chinese space assets
Johnson-Freese 15. (Joan, Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College.
"Found in Space: Cooperation," China US Focus. 10/9/2015. http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreignpolicy/u-s-china-space-cooperation-a-welcome-dialogue-begins/)//CB
Other topics that were discussed in conjunction with potential cooperation were civil Earthobservation
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, and begin to take an active role in demanding inclusive space cooperation.

Scenario one is solar storms

Solar flares are inevitable - better forecasting is crucial to effectively adapt

power grids to geomagnetic storms
Stone 15 (Maddie, Gizmodo. Citing the Executive National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan;
John Kappenman, Principal Consultant @ Storm Analysis Consultants. "The US is Finally Heeding
Warnings About a Monster Solar Storm." October 30, 2015, http://gizmodo.com/the-us-is-finallyheeding-warnings-about-a-monster-sola-1739620903)//CB
Space weather scientists at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and NASA have
warned for years
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the Suns gearing up to punt a giant blob of plasma our way.

Grid collapse causes extinction

IBT 11 ~International Business Times, Solar Flare Could Unleash Nuclear Holocaust Across Planet
Earth, Forcing Hundreds of Nuclear Power Plants Into Total Meltdowns,
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/213249/20110914/solar-flare-could-unleash-nuclear-holocaust-acrossplanet-earth-forcing-hundreds-of-nuclear-power-pl.htm~~
What happens when theres no electricity? Imagine a world without electricity. Even for just a AND
Its a very, very small fraction of the total population.

Scenario two is gps:

Space Weather events wreck global GPS

Met Office 16,
(Met Office (Meteorological Office) is the United Kingdoms official national weather service. It is an
executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and a
member of the Public Data Group, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/emergencies/spaceweather/impacts, TMP)
Low level space weather events occur on a regular basis and whilst they can be
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weather. Access to this service can be requested - Request Space Weather Account

GPS is critical to the economy disruption wrecks every sector

Leveson 2015,
(Irv Leveson is a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University and economic and strategy consultant
and founder of Leveson Consulting. He has done extensive work on GNSS markets and issues for
more than 10 years. He is a member of the Institute of Navigation, and the American Economic
Association and the National Association for Business Economics, "The Economic Benefits of GPS",
http://gpsworld.com/the-economic-benefits-of-gps/, TMP)

Critical to many civilian applications and innovations, GPS brings great economic benefits. These
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and assistance. Responsibility for the content and findings rests with the author.

Economic decline causes nuclear war

Stein Tnnesson 15, Research Professor, Peace Research Institute Oslo; Leader of East Asia Peace
program, Uppsala University, 2015, "Deterrence, interdependence and SinoUS peace," International
Area Studies Review, Vol. 18, No. 3, p. 297-311
Several recent works on China and SinoUS relations have made substantial contributions to
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each other, with a view to obliging Washington or Beijing to intervene