国信证券行业专题互联网王学恒国信证券－中概股互联网估值研究：互联网企业应该如何估值－151028

Page
[Table_IndustryInfo]
2015 10 28
500
[Table_BaseInfo]
188.28
88.28
-11.72
14/10 15/1 15/4
[Table_Title]
15/7
500
V=K*n*Lnn n
e
0877.HK
2015-10-23
3360.hk
2015-10-22
3
+
2015-09-11
2015
2015-09-10
2015
2015-08-25
DEVA
010-88005382
E- MAIL wangxueh@guosen.com.cn
S0980514030002
PE/G G*EPS*PEG PEG

0.5-0.80.3 -0.5 0.8-1
G +
PEG
PEG 20%
3-5
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
5%
Page
................................................................................................................................. 4
............................................................................................................ 5
/ ...................................................................................... 5
....................................................................................................... 6
................................................................................................... 7
............................................................................................................................. 8
DEVA .................................................................................................................... 8
......................................................................................................... 10
................................................................................................................. 10
............................................................................................................. 10
..................................................................................................................... 10
.......................................................................................... 11
......................................................................................................11
/ ............................................................................................................ 12
..................................................................................................................... 12
......................................................................................................................... 13
......................................................................................................................... 13
PE/G ............................................................................................................................ 13
........................................................................................................................... 15
PEG ............................................................................................... 15
................................................................................................................. 16
................................................................................................. 17
........................................................................................................................... 17
..................................................................................................................... 17
..................................................................................................................... 18
..................................................................................................................... 18
........................................................................................................................... 19
................................................................................................. 19
......................................................................... 20
..................................................................................... 22
............................................................................................................................... 23
....................................................................................................... 23
............................................................................................................... 24
............................................................................................................... 25
................................................................................................................... 27
............................................................................................................................... 27
................................................................................................................................... 27
...................................................................................................... 28
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
1 ..................................................................................................... 5
2 ..................................................................... 6
3 ................................................................................. 6
4/ .................................................................... 6
5Facebook .......................................................................... 6
660 NN2Lnn .................................................... 9
760 NLnn ............................................................ 9
836 Lnn 120 N .............................................. 9
9120 NLnn .......................................................... 9
10 ......................................................................................... 11
11 ............................................................................................. 14
12 ......................................................................................... 16
13 ..................................................................................... 18
14Groupon ........................................................................................... 20
14Facebook ......................................................................................... 21
15Facebook ................................................................................. 22
16 360 ................................................................................ 22
1 .......................................................... 15
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
MP3
IPAD...
timing
IM
...+
3-5 1
100 Uber
Uber
3G4G
360
U
+/
...
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
II
III
DCF PE
2%-10%
1999 4000 2000
202 ...
5%
1998
10
30%
2005 200 2000
+
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014 2007
50% PE
2011
60-80%2011 50%
20-30% PE 23 47
4/
5Facebook
70
140%
63
60
120%
52
50
47
46
40
31
30
20
28
33
29
23
20
10
100%
1,500
60%
1,000
40%
0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PE
Y2Y
2,182
2,000
80%
20%
2,500
Y2Y
500
1,392
631
29
15
1
2012
2013
2014
2012 Facebook
2013 90 2014
70
Robert Metcalfe1946 3Com

Metcalfe's Law
n n-1
2
V=K*n K
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page

http://www.techweb.com.cn/tele/2006-08-01/80825.shtml
2
V=K*N *T
T
//
/
10000 24
2
NT N
2
N
20 40
the
7%of 3.5% and
2.8%7.03.5 2.8 1/k 1/11/2
1/3 n 1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + + 1/(n
1) Ln(n)
V=K*n*Lnn n e
X
X1+Y%K
K
K
3-5
50%
K
2B/2C
SNS
ARPU
ARPU
ARPU=0 V =0
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
/ ARPU
10 200
http://xueqiu.com/4649792187/22292022
DEVA
DEVA(Discounted Equity Valuation Analysis Mary
Meeker 1995 4
DEVA
DEVA 18
18
2
E=MC E M C
http://36kr.com/p/87841.html
DEVA A 100
100 1 B 300
300 9 10
400 400 16
6 6 B 2
A A 1 2 B 9
1 16 6 A B
1+2=3 1 +2 =5
5-3=2
V=K*n*Lnn 60 60
2
35 N N*Lnn N
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
660 NN2Lnn
4000
760 NLnn
300
3500
250
3000
200
2500
2000
150
1500
100
1000
50
500
0
0
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547495153555759
N2
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547495153555759
N*Ln(n)
N*Ln(n)
1+1>2
2-1>1
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5101b90501011fib.html
- DEVA
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_6282482c01012qwj.html
10
120 N*ln(n)
3 10
90%
7 345%PE
836 Lnn 120 N
9120 NLnn
600
100
500
80
400
60
300
40
200
20
100
N*Ln(n)
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
700
120
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
140
N*Ln(n)
1
2
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
10
90
g
WACC CAPEX ...
PE
40 20
EPSPE
PE
...
GMV /
LinkedIn Facebook web2.0
O2O
30%
e
Facebook
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
11
ipad
TMT
10
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
12
e.g.
80 90
e.g.
e.g.
2000 500-600 25%

1000
50%
ROE 10-12
ROE 50%
KK.
featureproduct
company
platform P2PRSS
C2CTwitter
Facebook Facebook
company system
VC/PE
QQ
PC
B2C
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
13
B2B B2 BB2 / B
B2GB2CC2CB2B2C2B
2C 2B58
SNS 51.com
API Facebook
e.g.
e.g.
e.g.
e.g.
PE/G
=*EPS=
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
14
*SPSsales per share

EPS SPS
PS/PE
... 5
3-5
3
PE/G PS/G
PEPS
A A
2B
2B TMT
3 G
G CAGR G A
20
A 500 500
10000
10%(500-1000 )+500+1000
=2500
11
Bloomberg
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
15
22.38
TTM
07-09 09-
PE/G 1.08
0.33
PE/G 0.5-0.8 e.g. 40%20-32
0.3 -0.5 0.8-1

CAGR 20% PE/G
e.g.
1% 1 PE/G 100
PE PS
1
PS
PS
PE
PE
07-09
CAGR
09-12
CAGR
PE/G
PE/G
7.4
4.9
-34%
12.9
9.9
-23%
19%
28%
0.68
0.35
24.9
-76%
61
14.5
-76%
76%
38%
0.80
0.38
48.9
8.2
-83%
136
24.6
-82%
77%
96%
1.77
0.26
27.1
6.4
-64%
70.0
16.3
-60%
57%
54%
1.08
0.33
Bloomberg
A TMT 244 2012 12 PEG

0.82015 6 3A
http://xueqiu.com/8275001135/38094717
VIE
A
A
Price=PE*EPSPE=G*PE/G=G*EPS*PE/G
PEG
PE/G
0.3 -0.5 0.5-0.8 0.8-1
PE
EPS
10%
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
16
EPS
PE/GEPS G
20 G
e.g.
...
1999 4000
2000 50%
50% 202 90%
20 GDP 2.9%
5% GDP
CAGR G
G
...
12
Growth
ARPU
2007 1 iphone
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
17
App store
...
NEST
PE PS
EPS=SPSsales per share*PE=P/E=P/SPS*

PE=PS/=/
PE/G=PS/G/PSG=PEG*
PEG PSG
PEG PSG
O2O ... PS PS=PE*

=G*PEG*
30%+PS10-20 PE 30-60 e.g.
10%-30%PS3-5 PE 30-50 e.g.58

10%-PS1-3 PE 30-50 e.g.
1896 40 30 1929 381 3

1932 40 80
35 25 60 1896 1931
35 95% 1.9%
GDP
1932 35
1941 110 1976 1000 6.5%
1896 1941
3-5
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
18
PE 11 70
PC 3
5 10 1996 web1.0
2004 web1.0 adsense 2012 Facebook
web2.0 8 2020 IPO
2000 4000
90%
13
Bloomberg
VC 100 20%
AB C 1
200 SP
200
MP3
MP3
...
...
ARPU
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
19
+e.g. 100
PE/G 0.30
0.5
2012 PE/G
0.2
1/N
A 2012 12
PE/G 0.5
0.8 1 e.g.
PE
...
GTAT
2011 11 4 Groupon
Groupon
10000
IPO
Groupon Groupon
Groupon
S-1 Groupon S-1
SEC Groupon
CSOI GAAP
IPO
Groupon
Groupon 90%IPO
...Groupon
Samwer Lefkofsky
27
Lefkofsky
Groupon
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
20
PE
14Groupon
wind
Groupon Facebook
2012 5 23 FB web2.0
Facebook
Facebook
5 27 1000
1152 Facebook 3125 1290
Facebook
Facebook IPO
1970 2009 IPO
3.4% 1960 IPO 16.8%
Facebook 53%
500
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
21
15Facebook
wind
Facebook 73
SEC
Facebook
Scott Devitt Facebook
2012
IPO
......
11 6.3
LinkedIn
2012 10 24 Facebook
14% 1.5
4000 ~5000 20%
10 2.7 11 14
8 11 14
10% 100
Facebook
PEPS
34 3
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
22
16Facebook
wind
360 2011
360
360 ARPU 500
100 comScore
360 360
comScore 360
360
comScore
2012 3.2
17 PS 5 3 CAGR
80% PEGnoongap 0.22
3 2
100
2
1/6 360...
1 8
17 360
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
23
wind
15 95%
50%50%
e.g.
case study
1995-2009......
70
VCPE
IPO /
2004
2012
Facebook 5 1000
3125 1290
IPO
400
1970 2009 IPO
3.4%
UberAirbnb
GGV Capital Glenn Solomon
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
24
(
)
Uber
http://news.10jqka.com.cn/20150925/c582131656.shtml
2-3
PE/G G
FACEBOOK 17-18
585 4000
IPO
PE
the mirror of internet

IPV6
WIFI4GZigBeeDWDM
...... 1
CPU CPU **
/
IDC
kindle
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
25
. 20
http://www.kanshangjie.com/article/58264-1.html 20
1
Airbnb
2
/Price/DataPD
......
56 10-15
90 2002
150%
300%-600%
2018
2040 21
30 100% 30
/ 2030 VR
21 40
10
2045
10
Second Half of the Chessboard
++++
...
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
26
...
90
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
27
6 20%
6 10%-20%
6 10%
6 10%
6 10%
6 10%
6 10%
:
1.
2.
3.
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
Page
28
4700287/7971/20151112 09:57
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国信证券行业专题互联网王学恒国信证券－中概股互联网估值研究：互联网企业应该如何估值－151028

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国信证券行业专题互联网王学恒国信证券－中概股互联网估值研究：互联网企业应该如何估值－151028

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Page

PE/G GEPSPEG PEG

Robert Metcalfe1946 3Com

836 Lnn 120 N

LinkedIn Facebook web2.0

2000 500-600 25%

*SPSsales per share

0.3 -0.5 0.8-1

A TMT 244 2012 12 PEG

EPS=SPSsales per sharePE=P/E=P/SPS

O2O ... PS PS=PE*

10%-30%PS3-5 PE 30-50 e.g.58

1896 40 30 1929 381 3

the mirror of internet

You might also like

国信证券 行业专题 互联网 王学恒 国信证券－中概股互联网估值研究：互联网企业应该如何估值－151028

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国信证券 行业专题 互联网 王学恒 国信证券－中概股互联网估值研究：互联网企业应该如何估值－151028

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Page

PE/G G*EPS*PEG PEG

Robert Metcalfe1946 3Com

836 Lnn 120 N

LinkedIn Facebook web2.0

2000 500-600 25%

*SPSsales per share

0.3 -0.5 0.8-1

A TMT 244 2012 12 PEG

EPS=SPSsales per share*PE=P/E=P/SPS*

O2O ... PS PS=PE*

10%-30%PS3-5 PE 30-50 e.g.58

1896 40 30 1929 381 3

the mirror of internet

You might also like

国信证券行业专题互联网王学恒国信证券－中概股互联网估值研究：互联网企业应该如何估值－151028

国信证券行业专题互联网王学恒国信证券－中概股互联网估值研究：互联网企业应该如何估值－151028

PE/G GEPSPEG PEG

EPS=SPSsales per sharePE=P/E=P/SPS