Melinda Goossen

Engr 323

Beautiful Homework #3
Problem 2.59

Page 1 of 3

Problem Statement 2.59:

At a certain gas station, 40% of the customers use regular unleaded gas (A1), 35% use extra
unleaded gas (A2), and 25% use premium unleaded gas (A3). Of those customers using regular gas,
only 30% fill their tanks (event B). Of those using extra gas, 60% fill their tanks, while of those
using premium, 50% fill their tanks.
a. What is the probability that the next customer will request extra unleaded gas and fill the tank,
P(A2 B)?
b. What is the probability that the next customer fills the tank?
c. If the next customer fills the tank, what is the probability that regular gas is requested? Extra
gas? Premium gas?
Some definitions, equations and helpful hints will follow before we embark upon the quest for the
solution

Definitions and Equations:

Complement -The complement of an event A, denoted by A is the set of all outcomes in the
sample space that are not contained in A. (p. 46)
Mutually Exclusive -When events A and B have no outcomes in common, they are said
to be mutually exclusive or disjoint events. (p. 47)
Exhaustive - Events A1, , An are exhaustive if one Ai must occur, so that
A1 An = S, where S is the sample space. (p. 73)
Conditional Probability (p. 69) For any two events A and B with P(B) > 0, the conditional
probability of A given that B has occurred is defined by:
P( A | B) =

P( A B )
P( B)

Law of Total Probability (p. 73) Let A1, . . . , An be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Then for any other event B,
P(B) = P(B|A1)P(A1) + +P(B|An)P(An) = P(B|AI)P(AI)
P(B) = P(A1B) P(AnB)
Multiplication Rule for P(A
B) (p.70)
P(AB) = P(A|B) P(B)

Melinda Goossen
Engr 323

Beautiful Homework #3
Problem 2.59

Page 2 of 3

Helpful Hints:
Before we begin trying to answer part a., we need to go through the problem and define the
given events and probabilities. Once weve done define the given events and probabilities, we can
create both a venn diagram and a tree diagram to help clarify the situation as shown in Figure 1.
And then, after defining the events and creating the diagrams, we can commence solving the
problem.

Solution:
A1 = {use regular unleaded gas}
A2 = {use extra unleaded gas}
A3 = {use premium unleaded gas}
B = {fill the tank completely}
B = {not filling the tank completely}

P(A1) = 0.40
P(A2) = 0.35
P(A3) = 0.25

P(B|A1) = 0.30
P(B|A2) = 0.60
P(B|A3) = 0.50

A2

A3

A1

A 1 B

A2B

A3B

Figure 1. Tree diagram and Venn diagram for problem 2.59.

a. What is the probability that the next customer will request extra unleaded gas and fill the
tank, P(A2 B)?

P(A2B) is found using the definition of conditional probability.

P( A2 B) = P( B A2 ) = P( B | A2 ) P( A2 ) = (0.60)(0.35) = 0.21

b. What is the probability that the next customer fills the tank?
P(B) is found by using the law of total probability.

P( B) = P( B A1 ) + P( B A2 ) + P ( B A3 )
P( B) = P( B | A1 ) P( A1 ) + P( B | A2 ) P( A2 ) + P( B | A3 ) P ( A3 )
P( B) = (0.30)(0.40) + (0.60)(0.35) + (0.50)(0.25) = 0.455

Melinda Goossen
Engr 323

Beautiful Homework #3
Problem 2.59

Page 3 of 3

c. If the next customer fills the tank, what is the probability that regular gas is requested? Extra
gas? Premium gas?
P(A1B) is found using the definition of conditional probability.

P( A1 B ) P( B A1 ) P( B | A1 ) P( A1 ) (0.30)(0.40)
=
=
=
= 0.264
0.455
P( B)
P( B)
P( B)
P( A2 B) P( B A2 ) P( B | A2 ) P( A2 ) (0.60)(0.35)
=
=
=
= 0.461
P( A2 | B ) =
0.455
P( B)
P ( B)
P( B)
P( A3 B) P( B A3 ) P( B | A3 ) P( A3 ) (0.50)(0.25)
=
=
=
= 0.275
P( A3 | B) =
0.455
P( B)
P( B )
P( B)
P( A1 | B) =