Professional Documents
Culture Documents
At a certain gas station, 40% of the customers use regular unleaded gas ( A1 ), 35% use extra
unleadedgas( A2 ),and25%usepremiumunleadedgas( A3 ).Ofthosecustomersusingregulargas,
only30%filltheirtanks(eventB).Ofthosecustomersusingextragas,60%filltheirtanks,whereas
ofthoseusingpremium,50%filltheirtanks.
a. Whatistheprobabilitythatthenextcustomerwillrequestextraunleadedgasandfillthe
tank?
b. Whatistheprobabilitythatthenextcustomerfillsthetank?
c. If the next customer fills the tank, what is the probability that regular gas is requested?
Extragas?Premiumgas?
ANSWER:
P ( A1 ) = .40, P ( A2 ) = .35, P ( A3 ) = .25
P(B|A1)=0.3
P(B|A2)=0.6
P(B|A3)=0.5
Therefore,
P ( A1 B ) = P ( A1 ) P ( B1A1 ) = (.40 )(.30 ) = .12
a. ( A2 B ) =.21
b. P(B)= P( A1 B) + P ( A2 B) +P ( A3 B ) = .12+.21+.125=.455
c. P( P( A1 |B) =
P( A1 B) .12
=
= .264
P( B)
.455
P ( A2 |B ) =
P ( A2 B ) .21
=
= .462
P( B)
.455
P ( A3 |B ) =
P ( A3 B ) .125
=
== .275
P( B)
.455
2. Thenumberofticketsissuedbyameterreaderforparkingmeterviolationscanbemodeledbya
Poissonprocesswitharateparameteroffiveperhour.
a. Whatistheprobabilitythatexactlythreeticketsaregivenoutduringaparticularhour?
b. Whatistheprobabilitythatatleastthreeticketsaregivenoutduringaparticularhour?
c. Howmanyticketsdoyouexpecttobegivenduringa45minperiod?
ANSWER:
a. P( X = 3) = F (3;5) F (2;5) = .265 .125 = .140
b. P( X 3) = 1 P( X 2) = 1 F (2;5) = 1 .125 = .875
c.Ticketsaregivenattherateof5perhour,sofora45minuteperiodtherateis
= (5)(.75) = 3.75, whichisalsotheexpectednumberofticketsina45minuteperiod.
3. Anaircraftcanseat220passengers,andeachofthepassengersbookedontheflighthasa
probabilityof0.9ofactuallyarrivingatthegatetoboardtheplane,independentoftheother
passengers.
a. Supposetheairlinebooks235passengersontheflight.Whatistheprobabilitythatthere
willbeinsufficientseatstoaccommodateallofthepassengerswhowishtoboardthe
plane?
b. Iftheairlinewantstobe75%confidentthattherewillbenomorethan220passengerswho
wishtoboardtheplane,howmanypassengerscanbebookedontheflight?
4. Incommutingtoschool,Imustfirstgetonabusnearmyhouseandthentransfertoasecondbus.If
thewaitingtime(inminutes)ateachstophasauniformdistributionwithA=0andB=5,thenitcan
beshownthatmytotalwaitingtimeYhasthepdf
1
0 y<5
25 y
2 1
f ( y) =
y 5 y 10
5
25
0
y < 0 or y > 10
a) SketchagraphofthepdfofY
b) Verifythat
f ( y )dy = 1
c) Whatistheprobabilitythatthetotalwaitingtimeisatmost3minutes?
d) Whatistheprobabilitythatthetotalwaitingtimeisbetween3and8minutes?
e) Whatistheprobabilitythatthetotalwaitingtimeiseitherlessthan2minutesormorethan
6minutes?
a.
0.5
0.4
f(x)
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
10
b.
f ( y )dy =
1
0 25
10
ydy + (
5
2
5
1
25
1
1 1 1
+ (4 2) ( 2 ) = + = 1
2
2 2 2
5
9
y2
c. P(Y3)= ydy =
.18
=
50 0 50
46 9 37
d. P(3Y8)=P(Y8)P(Y<3)=
=
= .74
50 50 50
2 1
10 2
1
2
ydy +
y dy = = 0.4
e. P(Y<2orY>6)=
0 25
6
5
5 25
3
1
0 25
5. ConsiderthepdffortotalwaitingtimeYfortwobuses
1
0 y<5
25 y
2 1
f ( y) =
y 5 y 10
5 25
0
y < 0 or y > 10
a) ComputeandsketchthecdfofY
b) ComputeE(Y)andVar(Y)
10
1 2
y2 2
y )dy = + y
y
50 0 5
50 5
a.
For0y5,F(y)=
For5y10,F(y)=
1
y2
udu =
25
50
y 2
1
2
u
y2
+ du = y
1
2 5 5 25
5
50
F(x1)
1.0
0.5
0.0
0
10
x1
b. E(Y)=5bystraightforwardintegration(orbysymmetryoff(y)),and
V(Y)=
50
= 4.1667 .
12
6. LetXdenotethenumberofSonydigitalcamerassoldduringaparticularweekbyacertainstore.
ThepmfofXis
x
0
1
2
3
4
P(X=x)
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.25
0.15
Sixtypercentofallcustomerswhopurchasethesecamerasalsobuyanextendedwarranty.LetY
denotethenumberofpurchasersduringthisweekwhobuyanextendedwarranty.
a)
b)
c)
d)
WhatisthevalueofP(X=4,Y=2)?
CalculateP(X=Y)
DeterminethejointpmfofXandY
DeterminethemarginalpmfofY
a.
4 2
p(4,2)=P(Y=2|X=4)P(X=4)=
b. P(X=Y)=p(0,0)+p(1,1)+p(2,2)+p(3,3)+p(4,4)=.1+(.2)(.6)+(.3)(.6)2+(.25)(.6)3+(.15)(.6)4=.4014
c.
p(x,y)=0unlessy=0,1,,x;x=0,1,2,3,4.Foranysuchpair,
x
y
x y
p x ( x)
d. py(4)=p(y=4)=p(x=4,y=4)=p(4,4)=(.6)4(.15)=.0194
4
3
3
2
4
+ (.6) 2 (.4) 2 (.15) = .2678
2
2
1
3
4
(.6)(.4) 2 (.25) + (.6)(.4) 3 (.15) = .3590
1
1
py(0)=1[.3590+.2678+.1058+.0194]=.2480
7. SomchaiandSomyinghaveagreedtomeetbetween5:00PMand6:00PMfordinneratalocal
healthfoodrestaurant.LetXbeSomchaisarrivaltimeandYbeSomyingsarrivaltime.SupposeX
andYareindependentwitheachuniformlydistributedontheinterval[5,6].
a) WhatisthejointpdfofXandY?
b) Whatistheprobabilitythattheybotharrivebetween5:15and5:45PM?
c) Ifthefirstonetoarrivewillwaitonly10minutesbeforeleavingtoeatelsewhere,whatis
theprobabilitythattheyhavedinneratthehealthfoodrestaurant?
a.
1 5 x 6,5 y 6
otherwise
0
f(x,y)=
sincefx(x)=1,fy(y)=1for5x6,5y6
b. P(5.25X5.75,5.25Y5.75)=P(5.25X5.75)P(5.25Y5.75)=(byindependence)(.5)(.5)
=.25
c.
I
y = x 1/ 6
y = x +1/ 6
II
P((X,Y)A)=
1dxdy
A
=areaofA=1(areaofI+areaofII)
= 1
25 11
=
= .306
36 36
8. Anutcompanymarketscansofdeluxemixednutscontainingalmonds,cashews,andpeanuts.
Supposethenetweightofeachcanisexactly1lb.,buttheweightcontributionofeachtypeofnutis
random.Becausethethreeweighssumto1,ajointprobabilitymodelforanytwogivesallnecessary
informationabouttheweightofthethirdtype.Letthejointpdffor(X,Y)be
24 xy 0 x 1, 0 y 1, x + y 1
f X ,Y ( x, y ) =
otherwise
0
AreXandYcorrelated?Ifnot,whatsthecorrelationcoefficientofXandY?
Cov(X,Y)=
E(X2)=
2
2
and x = y = .
75
5
f x ( x)dx
= 12 x 3 (1 x 2 dx ) =
0
12 1
= ,
60 5
1 4
1
=
5 25 25
1
,
Similarly,Var(Y)=
25
so Var (X) =
so X ,Y =
2
1
25
75
1
25
50
= .667
75