The Decrease of the Cryosphere and Loss of Polar

Bear Habitat

Chuck Lugg, December 2015

The Earth is changing. Well, the earth is always changing in one way or another, but
the scientific community alive on earth today have now come to a general agreement with high
confidence, that the Earths climate is in fact changing. Now, once again, everything is always
changing, including Earths climate, but this agreement is concerned with the rate at which this
change is happening. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
climate change refers to the change in the state of the climate that can be identified, by
statistical tests, by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists
for an extended period, typically decades of longer. Basically changes in the average
temperatures and precipitation patterns of the Earth. As the climate changes, the life on Earth
shows its symptoms. Throughout the history of Earth, species come and go, but currently there
is a trend of declining populations of numerous species all over Earth. One species that is
certainly feeling the effects of climate change is the Polar Bear, Ursus maritimus. As climate
changes takes effect on the Earth, shrinking sea ice, common habitat of the polar bear, shrinks
and is causing a decrease in the populations of polar bears.

Climate Change
Climate change may be due to natural causes, but there is definite relations between the
anthropogenic changes in the composition of Earths atmosphere and the rate at which the

climate is changing. These changes in the composition of the Earths atmosphere, whether
natural or caused by human activity, change the radiative forcing of the earth. Forcing deals
with changes in the influence of climate from factors outside of the climate system. Albedo
(reflectivity), changes in greenhouse gases, and atmospheric aerosols (volcanic sulfates,
industrial output), all play their part in the changes in climate forcing. When this is all added
together with human causes, it is sometimes referred to as radiative forcing and changes in
these amounts are main drivers of climate change.

Figure 1. Global Changes in Average Temperature over time.

The figure above shows the global changes in the average temperatures of earth over
time. The blue line shows the trend line derived from models using only natural changes in
radiative forcing and the pink line shows changes in radiative forcings from both natural and

anthropogenic causes. The black line shows actual observed data of real life changes in the
average temperatures of Earth. This graphs show that the data collected from observations of
Earths climate can only be explained by changes in the radiative forcing produced by both
natural and anthropogenic causes. Basically, this trend in climate change can only be explained
if we examine the effect that humans play on the Earth. So if uneducated people say that
climate change is natural, you can point them in the direction of these figures and explain to
them that climate change is in fact an effect of human activity.
According to the IPCC, total radiative forcing is positive and has led to an uptake of
energy by the climate system of Earth. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is
caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750. Human influence
on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and
understanding of the climate system.
The effects of this change in Earths climate are numerous, including changes in the
mean sea level of Earth, increased frequency/intensity of storms, increased desertification,
changes in the cycles (hydrologic, carbon, etc.), and the shrinking of the cryosphere, the frozen
part of Earths water.
The cryosphere is a very important part of the Earth system and the rate at which it is
changing is quite alarming. Based on current climate change data, Arctic sea ice will continue
to shrink, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover in spring will continue to decrease, Global
glacier volume will continue to decrease, and the overall cryosphere will further decrease.

Sea Ice and Polar Bears

As the cryosphere shrinks, the populations of polar bears decline. The main threat to
polar bears is the loss of their habitat, which is based on sea ice. Arctic sea ice is extremely
important to these polar bears because as their scientific name implies, Ursus maritimus, the
polar bear is a marine mammal that spends more time at sea than it does on land. Polar bears
swim in the water to hunt for seals, some of their prey. They use floating sea ice during the
summer months and a lack of ice severely impacts their productivity.
Another factor to consider is not only the area of sea ice covered, but the time for which
the ice exists during the ice season. According to the National Wildlife Federation, in the past
20 years, the ice-free period in the Hudson Bay has increased by approximately 20 days, which
means the polar bears have lost 3 weeks of good hunting time. This may seem insignificant but
those 3 weeks translate to a major loss in body fat, which they need in order to provide for their

young and survive through to the next season. This impacts their chance of survival and overall
this leads to a declining population.
According to the National Wildlife Federation, the retreat of ice has implications beyond
the obvious habitat loss. Remaining ice is farther from shore, making it less accessible. This
larger gap between land and ice makes its very dangerous for polar bears, increasing the
likelihood that they do not survive.
The area of Artic September sea ice has diminished from about 7 million sq. km in the
early 90s to less than 5 million sq. km in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of
3.6 million sq. km in 2012 (Cesare, 2015). The scientific community was aware of the shrinking
area of sea ice each year but the full extent of the decrease was not expected. The main cause
of the decrease in area is still not known and because of this, it is hard for scientists to make
accurate models of this trend.
Models for predicting area of summer arctic sea ice are sometimes based on data
derived from melt-pond areas in spring. There is a strong correlation between the spring pond
ratios and the area of sea ice coverage in September (Schrder, 2014). As more ponds are
melted during key times of the year rather than frozen, the levels of albedo for the area change.
As more ponds are found to be not frozen, which are numerous in the northern regions, albedo
is decreased. A decreased albedo causes more melting. This is an example of a positive
feedback loop and there are many similar positive feedback mechanisms when dealing with the
issue of shrinking sea ice. This multitude of variables is why it is difficult for the creation
accurate models that predict the future area of sea ice.

Another factor in determining the rate of decrease of sea ice coverage is the collection of
detailed thickness observations. Since the 1970s, there has been a well-documented decline in
summer Arctic sea ice by about 40%. Between autumn 2010 and 2012, there was a 14%
reduction in arctic sea ice volume (Tilling, 2015).

Figure 2. Distribution of the Polar Bear, Ursus Maritimus.

The above figure shows the species distribution of the polar bear. From this map it is
easy to see that much of this area is part of the arctic circle, which is not always covered with
sea ice. The percentages that are decreasing each year translate into extremely large areas.
This is a large percentage of the Earth and the fact that the cryosphere is decreasing is area
should be a warning sign to all that are paying attention. The loss of a single species is not the
only concern from this loss of sea ice coverage but a disruption of the Earth as a whole.
Climate change is having a large impact on many aspects of this planet, including the
cryosphere, and will new effects will be discovered after it is too late.

The Polar Bear is a main indicator of how climate change is affecting our northern
ecosystems. Their declining populations, based on a loss of their sea ice habitat, is a tell-tale
sign that health of our cryosphere and our planet is in grave danger. Without help or corrective
action, the earth will see a further loss of polar bear populations, and possibly the polar bear
species entirely.
In conclusion, the climate of Earth is changing thanks to positive radiative forcing based
on anthropogenic causes. One of the main drivers of this is an increase in the CO2 levels in the
atmosphere. One effect/area of climate change deals with the shrinking of the cryosphere. As
the cryosphere shrinks, and the area of sea ice coverage decreases each season, habitat for
polar bears is decreased. This habitat loss is causing a decrease in populations of polar bears,
possibly leading to extinction.

References
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