A compliance review on the Philippines INDC

in reference to Paris Agreement

Compliance Review on the Republic of the Philippines Intended Nationally

Determined Contributions (INDC) in reference to Paris Agreement
The Philippines communicated its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on October 2015.
In its pursuit to climate change mitigation , as notably the country is highly vulnerable to
climate and disaster risks, initiatives and measures were formulated and recommended in the
INDC in the furtherance of its commitment to sustainable development by way of lowemission programs.
Salient articles of Paris Agreement will be the points of discussion in this study in relation to
the submitted INDC .
Under Article 2 ,it enhances the implementation of United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UN FCCC) dealing with greenhouse gases emissions mitigation,
adaptation ,through:
(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above
pre- industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts
of climate change;
INDC Assessment : The Philippines included in its INDC a clause on Mitigation such that
it proposed to undertake GHG (CO2) emission reduction of about 70% by 2030 relative to its
BAU scenario of 2000-2030 . Reduction of CO2 emissions will come from
energy,transport ,waste ,forestry and industry sectors. Assumptions for baseline scenario
were established to include the growth of population as one of the considerations as well as
climate projections . Methodology and tools were also identified in order to monitor its
progress such as 2006 IPCC software; Agricultural and Land Use (ALU) software for
agriculture ; Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP);Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA).
It passed a Climate Change Act of 2009 and amended in 2012 which established the Climate
Change Commission (CCC) to lead policy development and coordinate,monitor and evaluate
climate response .

Below is an action tracker for climate change as of November 25, 2015:

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On 1 October, The Philippines submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
(INDC), including a conditional greenhouse gas reduction target of 70% below business as
usual (BAU) levels by 2030. The INDC states that the target is conditional on the extent of
financial resources, including technology development & transfer, and capacity building, that
will be made available to the Philippines. The target covers all emissions from all sectors,
including land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).
When assuming that industrial, energy and agricultural emissions (emissions excluding
LULUCF), were also to be reduced by 70% below BAU, the CAT estimates that this could, at
best, result in emissions excluding LULUCF reverting to 1990 levels.

If the target were (partly) unconditional, and directed at energy, industrial and agricultural
emissions we would rate it sufficient. However, the Philippines has not put this forward and,
given the large uncertainty around how much mitigation it plans for LULUCF emissions and
how much emissions excluding LULUCF, we have given the Philippines the lower rate of
medium.
The medium rating indicates that the Philippines climate commitments are at the least
ambitious end of what would be a fair contribution. This means it is not consistent with limiting
warming to below 2C unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably
greater effort.
A partly unconditional reduction target, also specified for emissions excluding LULUCF, could
therefore be proposed, along with providing the used BAU, to increase the transparency of
the INDC. This could move the Philippines to a sufficient rating, meaning climate plans are
at the most ambitious end of its fair contribution. This means it would be consistent with
limiting warming to below 2C without requiring other countries to make much deeper
reductions and comparably greater effort.
According to our analysis, and in common with most countries, the Philippines will need to
implement additional policies to reach its conditional INDC. Full implementation of the
planned National Renewable Energy Program and The Energy Efficiency and Conservation
Roadmap would bring emissions halfway towards meeting the INDC target. However, the
INDC target is unlikely to be met if all of the announced coal-fired power plant capacity (more
than 10 GW) is constructed.
The INDC does not quantify its BAU projections, nor does it quantify future LULUCF
emissions. This introduces substantial uncertainty in interpreting the INDC targets and makes
quantifying emissions levels excluding LULUCF difficult.

Effect of current pledges and policies on global temperature

Addressing global warming

In the absence of policies global warming is expected, to reach 4.1C 4.8C above preindustrial by the end of the century. The emissions that drive this warming are often called
Baseline scenarios (Baselines in the above figure). and are taken from the IPCC AR5
Working Group III. Current policies presently in place around the world are projected to
reduce baseline emissions and result in about 3.6C [1] warming above pre-industrial levels.
The unconditional pledges or promises that governments have made, including in submitted
INDCs as of 7 December 2015, would limit warming to about 2.7C [2] above pre-industrial
levels, or in probabilistic terms, likely limit warming below 3C.
There remains a substantial gap between what governments have promised to do and the
total level of actions they have undertaken to date. Furthermore, both the current policy and
pledge trajectories lie well above emissions pathways consistent with a 1.5C or 2C world.
Evaluating progress towards the below 2C and 1.5C limits
Limiting warming to the globally agreed goal of holding warming below a 2C increase above
pre-industrial in the 21st century means that the emissions of greenhouse gases need to be
reduced rapidly in the coming years and decades, and brought to zero shortly after midcentury. Vulnerable countries, small island states and least developed countries, have called
for warming to be limited to below 1.5C by 2100. As a consequence the adequacy of the 2C
limit is being reviewed in a formal UNFCCC process where the merits of the 1.5C limit are
also being examined [3].
The CAT evaluates progress towards these global goals by quantifying the aggregate effects
of current policies and the pledges (promises) and INDCs put forward by countries, and
compares these with the emissions levels consistent over time with both the 1.5C and 2C
warming limits.
The CAT Thermometer explained

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The temperatures on the CAT thermometer are median warming estimates in 2100. It means
that there is a 50% chance that the calculated temperature would be exceeded if the given
emissions pathway were followed.

For example, our emissions pathway in the pledge scenario (that incorporates INDCs until 7
December) gives a 50% chance of warming being 2.7C or higher in 2100.
Using probabilities to provide more information
The median is based on the probability distribution generated by the climate model
(MAGICC) when it takes into account uncertainties in our knowledge of climate sensitivity, the
carbon cycle, and effect of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other factors that are used to
calculate the temperatures. The probability distribution enables us to provide more
information for policy makers and stakeholders about the likelihood of goals being met, or
specific temperatures being exceeded.
December 2015 - INDCs likely below 3C and over 90% chance exceeding 2C
The emissions pledge pathway that includes INDCs has aover 90% probability of exceeding
2C, and only a likely (>66%) chance of remaining below 3C this century. The current policy
pathways have a higher than 99.5% probability of exceeding 2C.
Limiting warming to 2C with likely probability
In the CAT we assess pathways against a (>66%) probability of holding warming below 2C. A
median 2C pathway would give, in effect, only a toss of the coin chance of limiting warming
below this level. It is assumed that policy makers are interested in a higher probability of
achieving this limit. A higher probability of limiting warming below 2C gives greater
confidence that the emissions reduction efforts made will be successful in limiting warming to
2C. This means, of course, that the median peak warming from a 2C compatible pathway
will be lower than 2C - in the range of 1.5-1.7C (see figure above and IPCC AR5 WGIII
Ch6).
What governments need to do to achieve the global goal :
Fortunately, as shown by the IPCC AR5, substantially more action, sufficient to hold warming
below 2C (and to below 1.5C by 2100) with likely probability is technically and economically
feasible. According to the IPCC, the costs of reducing emissions to limit warming to below 2C
are modest, even before taking into account co-benefits such as increased energy-security
and health improvements due to reduced air pollution. Annualised reductions of consumption
growth are estimated at around 0.06 per cent over the century, relative to a baseline of 1.6 to
3% growth per year.[4]
The IPCC AR5 shows that even starting from emission levels implied by INDCs and current
policy projections, 1.5C and 2C pathways are still technically feasible. However, the
resulting emission pathways are increasingly expensive as they are not consistent with the
most cost-efficient policies. Slower-than-optimal emission reductions early on need to be
followed by faster reductions later on, effectively leading to significantly higher costs for the
period 20302050 than would otherwise be needed. While the challenges are significant,
limiting warming to below 1.5C by the end of the century is still feasible from current
emissions levels. However, with every decade lost, these challenges and costs rise and will,
at some point, become insurmountable with warming locked in to 1.5 or 2C and above.[5]
SOURCE: CLIMATE ACTION TRACKER (online website)

(b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not
threaten food production;
INDC Assessment : It specifically recognise the vulnerability of the country to the impacts of
climate change and strives to ensure that adaptation and disaster risk reduction are
mainstreamed and integrated into the countrys plans and programs at all levels. Among the
relevant priority measures are :
1. Institutional and system strengthening for downscaling climate change models,climate
scenario-building ,climate monitoring and observation .
2. Adoption of the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (NFSCC) in 2010 laid
the foundation and roadmap for addressing climate change. It identified adaptation as the
anchor strategy and considered mitigation as a function of adaptation.
3. The Cabinet Cluster on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation (CCAM) was also
created to focus on increasing convergence and coordination among government
agencies with key roles on adaptation and mitigation
4. Issuance of the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) in 2011 set tone for the
Government to implement short,medium and long term actions in seven thematic areas of
food security ,water security,ecological and environmental stability ,human security,climate
smart industries and services, sustainable energy , and knowledge and capacity
development.

(c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions
and climate-resilient development.
INDC Assessment : In consonance of this section, it included among others :
1. The preservation and conservation of its diverse ecosystems which are considered
extremely important for enabling the country to develop resilience in the face of climate
change,particularly its forests and marine resources,which are seen to be contributing to
both adaptation and mitigation needs. The marine ecosystem plays a role in its potential
on blue carbon, these are articulated in the Philippine National REDD Plus Strategy and
the recently updated Philippine Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan.
2. The Philippine legislature is also positioning itself to declare by law 97 protected areas as
national parks under the Expanded National Integrated Protected Areas Systems ,which
could contribute to increasing resiliency against climate change.
3. Enactment of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Law of 2010 serving
as guide to mitigate impacts of disasters and increase resilience in the face of natural
disasters.

4. Systematic transition to a climate and disaster -resilient social and economic growth
As an indication of implementation , the Philippines is already undertaking initiatives to
mainstream and institutionalise climate change adaptation and mitigation into plans and
programs of the government as reflected in government expenditures . The Philippine
government has installed a system of tagging its expenditure for climate change adaptation
and mitigation and is envisioned to use this system for its annual budgeting process starting
2015 .
It was clearly shown in the INDC that the above article of the agreement was sufficiently
complied with in so far as planning,identification of mitigation and adaptation strategies are
concerned.

Under Article 4 : In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2,
parties aim to reach global peaking of greehouse gas emissions as soon as
possible,recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country . Parties to
undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to
achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of
greenhouse gases in the second half of this century,on the basis of equity,and in the context
of sustainable development efforts to eradicate poverty.
In relation to :
Article 5: Parties should take action to conserve and enhance ,as appropriate ,sinks and
reservoirs of greenhouse gases referred to in Article 4,paragraph 1(d) ,of the
Convention,including forests.

INDC Assessment: The Philippines admits the fact that it is endowed with vast forests and
oceans which can both serve as carbon sinks , that is both can absorb carbon dioxide out of
the atmosphere . The rapid reduction calls for a technology development and transfer and
capacity building. It is conditioned to extend financial resources. It is poised to pass law
expanding the protected areas under NIPAS.

Under Article 8 : Addresses loss and damage, as climate-vulnerable countries wanted. This
section lists ways that developed countries could assist climate -threatened developing
countries:
4. Accordingly , areas of cooperation and facilitation to enhance understanding ,action and
support may include:
(a) Early warning systems;

(b) Emergency preparedness;

(c) Slow onset events;
(d) Events that may involve irreversible and permanent loss and damage
(e) Comprehensive risk assessment and management;
(f) Risk insurance facilities,climate risk pooling and other insurance solutions;
(g) Non-economic losses;
(h) Resilience of communities,livelihoods and ecosystems

INDC Assessment: It did not include in definite terms the actions related to above . A generic
statement was provided such that it recognises loss and damage,to wit: The basic foundation
for prioritising adaptation measures is to ensure that loss and damage from climate change
and extreme events are minimised to ensure achievement of national development targets
through building capacities and enhancing resilience to avoid and mitigate losses in a
sustainable manner. The Philippines INDC assumes that Loss-and-Damages from climate
change and extreme events will not require diversion of substantial resources for
rehabilitation and reconstruction thereby adversely affecting the countrys capacity to meet
national development targets as well as mitigation commitments under this INDC.

Under Article 6: It refers to voluntary cooperation between countries in the implementation

of their emissions targets to allow for higher ambition in their mitigation and adaptation
actions. If thats not exactly plain speak, then wait for how carbon trading is referred to
as internationally transferred mitigation outcomes.
The same Article also provides for an entirely new, UN-controlled international market
mechanism. All countries will be able to trade carbon with each other, helping each to achieve
their national targets for emissions cuts.
INDC Assessment: One way to comply with above is reduce deforestation and enhance
sustainable forest management to enhance forest carbon sinks . And later on measure its
impacts. The Philippines has its Forestry Code . Another is the Philippine Biofuels Act. It also
adopts a polluter pay principle though it is not well-enshrined in the INDC .

Under Article 14 :
1. The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris
Agreement shall periodically take stock of the implementation of this Agreement to assess
the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of this Agreement and its long -term
goals referred to as the global stocktake . It shall do so in a comprehensive facilitative
manner ,considering mitigation,adaptation and the means of implementation and support,
and in the light of equity and the best available science.
2. The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement
shall undertake its first global stocktake in 2023 and every five years thereafter unless
otherwise decided by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to
the Paris Agreement.
3. The outcome of the global stocktake shall inform Parties in updating and enhancing ,in a
nationally determined manner, their actions and support in accordance with the relevant
provisions of this Agreement, as well as in enhancing international cooperation for climate
action.
INDC Assessment: Given the established baseline scenario ,targets and the identified
internationally accepted methodology and tools for the monitoring of progress and the
passage of Climate Change Act of 2009 ,the Philippines is prepared to make a concrete
progress report .
Assessment conducted on the following:
* Integration of climate change considerations in the assessment such as analysis of climate
projections impacts on hydropower potential as an RE option for mitigation
* Cost-benefit Analysis including the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve until 2030 for sectors
with mitigation potential
* Multi-criteria Analysis for prioritising mitigation actions
* Research and development on climate change ,extremes and impacts for improved risk
assessment and management, a post implementation evaluation to determine if potential
risks identified were actually reduced.

REVIEW ON OUR PRESENT JUDICIAL SYSTEM vis a vis Environmental Cases:

In reference to A.M. No. 09-6-8-SC , Rules of Procedure for Environmental Cases , it
encompasses almost all available environmental laws : from land,water,air . It deals with how
civil and criminal cases ,even special civil cases such as Writ of Kalikasan are instituted,how
is it judicially processed until its final resolution. Interesting to note that our present judicial
system is prepared for any environmental eventualities which may be raised to the Court.
The objectives of these rules are embodied in section 3 of the same Resolution :

(a) To protect and advance the constitutional right of the people to a balanced and healthful
ecology;
(b) To provide a simplified ,speedy and inexpensive procedure for the enforcement of
environmental rights and duties recognised under the Constitution,existing laws,rules and
regulations and international agreements;
(c) To introduce and adopt innovations and best practices ensuring effective enforcement of
remedies and redress for violation of environmental laws;and
(d) To enable the courts to monitor and exact compliance with orders and judgments in
environmental cases.

Hence, the Paris Agreement being a recognised international agreement is upheld by our
judicial branch . The INDCC in the same manner is fully supported by our existing
environmental laws . There is just a need to make the targets more specific,measurable and
actions are more concrete and a regular update on its development or any progress should
be made known to the entire country or through proper agency for better appreciation and
gain more cooperation up to the smallest unit of our society if indeed we are committed and
we want to achieve the targets we desired.