Professional Documents
Culture Documents
4 NOV 2016
Sonata Software
BUY
INDUSTRY
CMP (as on 03 Nov 2016)
Target Price
IT
Rs 163
Rs 192
Nifty
8,485
Sensex
27,430
SSOF IN
105
17/257
28
3M
5.0
6.0
Rs 186 / 126
6M
10.9
2.2
12M
5.1
1.9
30.95
2.43
FIIs
13.76
52.86
Source : BSE
Amit Chandra
amit.chandra@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7345
Apurva Prasad
apurva.prasad@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7327
Financial Summary
Year Ending Mar (Rs mn)
Net Sales
EBITDA
APAT
Diluted EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
2QFY17
5,225
506
378
3.6
2QFY16
3,984
476
384
3.6
YoY (%)
31.1
6.4
(1.4)
(1.4)
FY15
16,821
1,676
1,337
12.7
12.8
9.0
33.3
FY16
19,405
1,919
1,586
15.1
10.8
6.8
35.3
FY17E
23,744
1,971
1,596
15.2
10.7
6.6
31.1
FY18E
27,222
2,347
1,862
17.7
9.2
5.3
30.8
FY19E
31,114
2,788
2,186
20.8
7.8
4.1
30.7
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Consolidated EBITDA%
expanded 321bps QoQ to
9.3% owing to higher margins
in products (+130 bps QoQ)
while IITS business margin
contracted 72 bps to 21.8%
2QFY17
31.2
5,225
3,068
1,127
523
506
22
485
13
83
554
176
0
378
0
378
2QFY16
26.0
3,984
2,088
1,008
413
476
12
464
18
111
557
173
0
384
10
393
YoY (%)
20.0
31.1
46.9
11.8
26.8
6.4
78.9
4.5
(23.8)
(24.7)
(0.4)
1.9
NA
(1.4)
NA
(3.8)
1QFY17
29.2
6,778
4,644
1,114
581
439
20
419
42
125
501
154
0
347
21
368
QoQ (%)
6.8
(22.9)
(33.9)
1.2
(10.0)
15.3
8.7
15.6
(68.3)
(33.1)
10.6
14.5
NA
8.9
NA
2.7
2QFY17
58.7
21.6
10.0
9.7
9.3
31.8
7.2
2QFY16
52.4
25.3
10.4
11.9
11.6
31.1
9.6
YoY (bps)
632
(373)
(34)
(225)
(236)
72
(239)
1QFY17
68.5
16.4
8.6
6.5
6.2
30.7
5.1
QoQ (bps)
(979)
515
144
321
309
108
211
Margin Analysis
Particulars
Inventory Cost % Net Revenue
Employee Cost % Net Revenue
SG&A and Other Expenses % Net Revenues
EBITDA Margin (%)
EBIT Margin (%)
Tax Rate (%)
APAT Margin (%)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 2
(% Contribution)
OPD
TTL
CPG & Retail
Others
Total
4QFY15
35.0%
33.0%
15.0%
17.0%
100.0%
1QFY16
34.0%
32.0%
16.0%
18.0%
100.0%
2QFY16
31.0%
31.0%
19.0%
19.0%
100.0%
3QFY16
29.0%
33.0%
21.0%
17.0%
100.0%
4QFY16
28.0%
31.0%
24.0%
17.0%
100.0%
1QFY17
30.0%
29.0%
24.0%
17.0%
100.0%
2QFY17
31.0%
28.0%
23.0%
18.0%
100.0%
4QFY15
-4.6%
14.0%
-2.9%
10.1%
3.6%
1QFY16
-2.9%
-3.0%
6.7%
5.9%
0.0%
2QFY16
-8.5%
-2.8%
19.2%
6.0%
0.4%
3QFY16
-1.4%
12.2%
16.5%
-5.7%
5.4%
4QFY16
0.4%
-2.3%
18.9%
4.0%
4.0%
1QFY17
9.8%
-4.2%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2QFY17
10.4%
3.2%
2.4%
13.1%
6.8%
4QFY15
29.0%
9.0%
18.0%
13.0%
7.0%
10.0%
5.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
100.0%
1QFY16
26.0%
10.0%
19.0%
15.0%
6.0%
9.0%
5.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.0%
100.0%
2QFY16
26.0%
12.0%
19.0%
14.0%
7.0%
9.0%
6.0%
2.0%
2.0%
3.0%
100.0%
3QFY16
24.0%
12.0%
18.0%
13.0%
9.0%
10.0%
5.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2.0%
100.0%
4QFY16
23.0%
15.0%
18.0%
15.0%
9.0%
9.0%
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
1.0%
100.0%
1QFY17
25.0%
16.0%
15.0%
16.0%
9.0%
7.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2.0%
1.0%
100.0%
2QFY17
26.0%
18.0%
16.0%
15.0%
9.0%
6.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
100.0%
Page | 3
1QFY16
-10.3%
11.1%
5.6%
15.4%
-14.3%
-10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
33.3%
0.0%
2QFY16
0.4%
20.5%
0.4%
-6.3%
17.1%
0.4%
20.5%
-33.1%
-33.1%
-24.7%
0.4%
3QFY16
-2.7%
5.4%
-0.2%
-2.1%
35.5%
17.1%
-12.2%
58.1%
110.8%
-29.7%
5.4%
4QFY16
-0.3%
30.0%
4.0%
20.0%
4.0%
-6.4%
-16.8%
38.7%
-48.0%
-48.0%
4.0%
1QFY17
11.4%
9.3%
-14.6%
9.3%
2.5%
-20.3%
2.5%
28.1%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2QFY17
11.1%
20.2%
14.0%
0.2%
6.8%
-8.4%
6.8%
-35.9%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%
4QFY15
52.0%
34.0%
14.0%
100.0%
1QFY16
51.0%
34.0%
15.0%
100.0%
2QFY16
55.0%
31.0%
14.0%
100.0%
3QFY16
56.0%
31.0%
13.0%
100.0%
4QFY16
60.0%
26.0%
14.0%
100.0%
1QFY17
61.0%
26.0%
13.0%
100.0%
2QFY17
59.0%
26.0%
15.0%
100.0%
4QFY15
-2.1%
13.6%
3.6%
3.6%
1QFY16
-1.9%
0.0%
7.1%
0.0%
2QFY16
8.3%
-8.5%
-6.3%
0.4%
3QFY16
7.3%
5.4%
-2.1%
5.4%
4QFY16
11.4%
-12.8%
12.0%
4.0%
1QFY17
4.2%
2.5%
-4.9%
2.5%
2QFY17
3.3%
6.8%
23.3%
6.8%
4QFY15
-14.2%
16.6%
9.7%
3.6%
3.6%
29.5%
29.5%
55.4%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
Page | 4
4QFY15
67.0%
33.0%
100.0%
1QFY16
66.0%
34.0%
100.0%
2QFY16
62.0%
38.0%
100.0%
3QFY16
58.0%
42.0%
100.0%
4QFY16
57.0%
43.0%
100.0%
1QFY17
58.0%
42.0%
100.0%
2QFY17
55.0%
45.0%
100.0%
4QFY15
-0.8%
14.0%
3.6%
1QFY16
-1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
2QFY16
-5.7%
12.2%
0.4%
3QFY16
-1.4%
16.5%
5.4%
4QFY16
2.2%
6.5%
4.0%
1QFY17
4.3%
0.1%
2.5%
2QFY17
1.3%
14.5%
6.8%
4QFY15
72.0%
28.0%
100.0%
1QFY16
72.0%
28.0%
100.0%
2QFY16
73.0%
27.0%
100.0%
3QFY16
72.0%
28.0%
100.0%
4QFY16
67.0%
33.0%
100.0%
1QFY17
70.0%
30.0%
100.0%
2QFY17
72.0%
28.0%
100.0%
4QFY15
6.6%
-3.3%
3.6%
1QFY16
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2QFY16
1.8%
-3.2%
0.4%
3QFY16
3.9%
9.3%
5.4%
4QFY16
-3.2%
22.6%
4.0%
1QFY17
7.0%
-6.9%
2.5%
2QFY17
9.9%
-0.3%
6.8%
Page | 5
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
2QFY14
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
2QFY17
1QFY17
(5)
4QFY16
10
3QFY16
(1)
2QFY16
14
1QFY16
4QFY15
18
3QFY15
2QFY15
22
1QFY15
11
4QFY14
26
3QFY14
15
2QFY14
30
(%)
1QFY15
(%, QoQ)
4QFY14
(US$ mn)
(Rs mn)
3QFY14
2QFY17
Others
USA
Europe
RoW
2QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
2QFY14
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Page | 6
20
10
60
30
2QFY17
40
60
50
1QFY17
55
52
60
55
61
67%
70%
70%
72%
72%
73%
72%
72%
73%
73%
75%
74%
66.0%
1,000
64.0%
500
62.0%
0
3,139
3,111
3,144
3,147
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
2,908
2QFY16
3QFY16
2,889
1QFY16
2,896
2,837
3QFY15
Nos
4QFY15
2,746
2,575
3,500
2QFY15
1QFY15
2,445
1,500
4QFY14
2,000
2,476
2,500
3QFY14
3,000
2,477
77%
2QFY14
2QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
68.0%
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
70.0%
56
59
4QFY14
72.0%
3QFY15
2QFY15
80
71
3QFY14
2QFY14
78.0%
1QFY15
51
60
4QFY14
70
64
74.0%
58
76.0%
3QFY14
2QFY14
IITS Headcount
Page | 7
(Rs mn)
5,000
(%)
DPS Headcount
2QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3,174
2QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2,316
2QFY16
1QFY16
2,340
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
3QFY15
2QFY15
50
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
70
2QFY14
1,000
3,556
3,438
90
3,191
2,000
3,143
2,607
110
3,000
2,840
2,070
130
4,000
2,620
3,050
150
2QFY14
(Rs mn)
170
4,893
6,000
102
59
20
20
1QFY17
40
62
40
40
60
4QFY16
60
80
65
100
59
80
3QFY16
76
82
3QFY15
79
85
91
3QFY14
2QFY15
90
100
101
120
2QFY14
156
147
140
142
122
114
110
111
120
2QFY17
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
2QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
120
118
140
119
160
130
(Nos)
180
148
Page | 8
FY15
98.3
24.1
6,067
25.5
1,513
24.9
FY16
107.8
9.7
7,068
16.5
1,843
26.1
FY17E
126.0
16.9
8,443
19.5
1,858
22.0
FY18E
143.7
14.0
9,625
14.0
2,166
22.5
FY19E
162.3
13.0
10,877
13.0
2,502
23.0
FY15
10,929
0.7
413
3.8
FY16
12,501
14.4
584
4.7
FY17E
15,501
24.0
636
4.1
FY18E
17,826
15.0
802
4.5
FY19E
20,500
15.0
1,025
5.0
Change in Estimates
Particulars
FY17E
Revenue (Rs mn)
EBITDA (Rs mn)
EBITDA margin (%)
APAT
FY18E
Revenue (Rs mn)
EBITDA (Rs mn)
EBITDA margin (%)
APAT
Earlier estimates
Revised estimates
% change
22,897
1,886
8.2
1,537
23,744
1,971
8.3
1,596
3.7
4.5
6bps
3.9
25,874
2,198
8.5
1,758
27,222
2,347
8.6
1,862
5.2
6.7
12bps
5.9
Page | 9
Peer Valuation
Company
Mindtree
eClerx
Hexaware *
Persistent
Cyient
Zensar
KPIT
Sonata
Mcap
(Rs bn)
CMP
(Rs)
Rating
TP
(Rs)
72
62
60
52
52
45
26
17
428
1,497
198
652
462
1,006
131
163
SELL
NEU
NEU
BUY
NEU
BUY
SELL
BUY
400
1455
215
770
554
1195
125
192
FY16
32.9
89.0
13.0
37.2
29.0
69.3
14.2
15.1
EPS (Rs)
FY17E FY18E
25.5
32.0
96.3 104.5
12.7
14.8
38.1
45.5
33.3
39.5
70.0
85.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
17.7
FY16
13.0
16.8
15.2
17.5
15.9
14.4
9.2
10.8
P/E (x)
FY17E
16.8
15.5
15.5
17.1
13.9
14.3
10.9
10.7
FY18E
13.4
14.3
13.3
14.3
11.7
11.6
10.0
9.2
FY16
25.0
40.3
28.9
19.5
17.0
23.4
21.0
35.3
RoE (%)
FY17E FY18E
17.3
19.6
31.1
28.4
24.4
24.4
17.2
17.7
18.5
19.7
19.8
20.6
16.1
15.6
31.1
30.8
Page | 10
FY16
19,405
15.4
17,486
1,919
9.9
14.5
62
1,857
475
79
2,252
667
0
1,549
1,586
18.6
15.1
18.6
FY17E
23,744
22.4
21,773
1,971
8.3
2.7
71
1,900
466
86
2,280
684
0
1,596
1,596
0.6
15.2
0.6
FY18E
27,222
14.6
24,875
2,347
8.6
19.0
79
2,267
495
103
2,660
798
0
1,862
1,862
16.7
17.7
16.7
FY19E
31,114
14.3
28,326
2,788
9.0
18.8
89
2,700
526
103
3,123
937
0
2,186
2,186
17.4
20.8
17.4
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
105
4,179
4,284
244
(89)
19
4,459
105
4,605
4,710
1,713
(129)
162
6,455
105
5,451
5,556
1,713
(129)
162
7,302
105
6,439
6,544
1,713
(129)
162
8,289
105
7,598
7,703
1,713
(129)
162
9,449
123
2
111
0
923
1,160
73
3,107
2,639
1,019
6,838
2,496
1,043
3,539
3,300
4,459
292
910
0
658
1,860
100
3,544
3,475
810
7,930
2,655
680
3,334
4,595
6,455
339
396
463
910
910
910
0
0
0
658
658
658
1,907 1,964 2,031
100
100
100
4,684 5,370 6,138
3,496 4,205 5,046
1,136 1,183 1,237
9,416 10,858 12,520
3,281 3,748 4,268
741
785
834
4,022 4,533 5,102
5,394 6,325 7,418
7,302 8,289 9,449
Page | 11
Key Ratios
FY15
1,819
(195)
28
61
(664)
(486)
562
(113)
449
26
199
112
187
(28)
609
0
(675)
(515)
159
39
2,639
FY16
2,252
(438)
79
62
513
(667)
1,802
(1,601)
201
0
438
(1,163)
1,469
(79)
1,590
0
(866)
523
1,162
(326)
3,475
FY17E
2,280
(466)
86
71
(777)
(684)
510
(119)
391
0
466
347
0
(86)
305
0
(749)
(835)
22
0
3,496
FY18E
2,660
(495)
103
79
(222)
(798)
1,327
(136)
1,191
0
495
359
0
(103)
1,088
0
(874)
(977)
709
0
4,205
FY19E
3,123
(526)
103
89
(252)
(937)
1,599
(156)
1,444
0
526
371
0
(103)
1,341
0
(1,027)
(1,129)
841
0
5,046
PROFITABILITY (%)
EBITDA Margin
APAT Margin
RoE
RoIC or Core RoCE
RoCE
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%)
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (days)
Debtors (days)
Payables (days)
Cash Conversion Cycle (days)
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
Interest Coverage (x)
PER SHARE DATA
EPS (Rs/sh)
CEPS (Rs/sh)
DPS (Rs/sh)
BV (Rs/sh)
VALUATION
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
OCF/EV (%)
FCF/EV (%)
FCFE/mkt cap (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
10.0
7.9
33.3
21.6
29.3
9.9
8.2
35.3
20.2
28.9
8.3
6.7
31.1
16.7
25.9
8.6
6.8
30.8
18.1
26.2
9.0
7.0
30.7
19.6
26.5
27.2
20.1
2
71
60
13
(1.4)
(0.6)
58.6
30.1
18.2
2
67
55
13
(0.9)
(0.4)
23.4
30.0
20.0
2
77
55
24
(0.9)
(0.3)
22.2
30.0
20.6
1
77
55
23
(1.1)
(0.4)
22.1
30.0
21.0
1
77
55
23
(1.2)
(0.4)
26.3
12.7
13.3
5.5
40.7
15.1
15.7
7.0
44.8
15.2
15.9
6.1
52.8
17.7
18.5
7.1
62.2
20.8
21.6
8.3
73.3
12.8
4.0
9.0
3.7
3.0
3.6
3.6
10.8
3.6
6.8
13.7
1.5
9.9
4.7
10.7
3.1
6.6
3.9
3.0
1.9
4.0
9.2
2.6
5.3
10.7
9.6
6.8
4.7
7.8
2.2
4.1
13.9
12.5
8.3
5.5
Page | 12
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Sonata Software
Date
11-Feb-16
25-May-16
8-Jul-16
10-Aug-16
6-Oct-16
4-Nov-16
TP
220
200
180
160
140
CMP
155
149
173
153
157
163
Reco
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
Target
184
178
190
186
193
192
120
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
100
Rating Definitions
BUY
: Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL
: Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
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