Human Resource Development, Government Spending and Productivity of Human Capital in Pakistan

VOLUME 9 NUMBER 1 DECEMBER 2013
SAARC Journal of Human Resource Development 2013
Human Resource Development, Government Spending

and Productivity of Human Capital in Pakistan
Muhammad Abdul Wahab, Dr.Vaqar Ahmed,AsifJaved2
Abstract
The growth experience in South Asia, exhibits how skilled
human capital paved the way for foreign direct investment and
technology transfer in the region. Developing countries, in the
same region, however, felt constraints on growth primarily
associated with institutional factors that kept productivity of
labour and capital at lower levels. Despite investment in
vocational and skills development, health and education, the
multinational enterprises and local investors are reluctant to
engage in longer term investment contracts, in Pakistan.
This study analyses the relationship between endowment of
human capital, government spending on Human Resource
Development (HRD) and productivity of labour in Pakistan. The
recent data from official sources exhibit that a)Pakistan is
performing relatively poorly in HRD indicators in comparison to
South Asian neighbours; b) The Government spending on HRD
as percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is relatively
lower vis-a-vis South Asian average; and c) Productivity of
labour in Pakistan continues to decline over time. The only
productivity increase is observed in some services sectors over
the past decade. The skills development programs must cater to
the demands of employers in value added agriculture, industry
and services sectors. The vocational institutions also need to
carefully look at their syllabi in the light of overseas
developments, where Pakistani Diaspora has potential for
employment. Greater coordination is required between Federal
and Provincial Governments for eliminating fragmentation of
HRD programs across the country. The governance of public
sector education and skills development institutions may be
improved through allowing private management, as seen in the
Punjab province.
2
M. Abdul Wahab(email: wahab907@gmail.com), Economic

Consultant and Dr. Vaqar Ahmed (email: vaqar@sdpi.org), Deputy
Executive Director, Sustainable Development Policy Institute;AsifJaved
(email: asifjaved04@gmail.com), Research Analyst, Global Research
Insight for Development, Pakistan.
32
HRD Government Spending and Productivity
Introduction
HRD plays a crucial role in enhancing firm level productivity
and ultimately, a country's national income. HRD policies
mainly include education, skill development, and health facilities
available to working age population and prudent labour market
laws and regulations (OECD 2012). Each component of HRD
policies is important for developing enabling environment for
domestic and foreign enterprises to lure additional investments as
well as attract technological advancements for increased
competitiveness. The political economic milieu, initial
endowments of factors of production, and institutional stability
across government and non-government institutions play an
important role in enhancing the quality of human capital.
The impact HRD policies provide coherence between programs
at national and sub-national levels. Equally important is to
synchronize the public sector investments in HRD. In the initial
phases of development, these scarce budgetary resources should
be targeted to sectors or regions with high impact in the shortest
possible time.
Figure 1: Education and Health Spending
(asPercentage of GDP)
India
Srilanka
Bangladesh
USA
Japan
Brazil
South Africa
Pakistan
17.9
20.0
15.0 11.1
9.3 8.9 8.1
10.0
2.5 3.9 3.4 3.7
5.0
0.0
Germany
7.0
5.6 5.86.0
6.0 5.1
5.0
3.8
3.3
4.0
2.4 2.02.2
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Health Spending as % of GDP
Germany
USA
Japan
Brazil
South Africa
Pakistan
India
Srilanka
Bangladesh
% of GDP
Education Spending as % of GDP
Source: World Development Indicators, 2013
The above figure shows education and health spending as

percentage of GDP of developed, middle income and developing
economies. In education spending developed economies like
33
Germany, USA and Japan spend around 5.1, 5.6 and 3.8 percent
of GDP respectively whereas, middle income group economies
like Brazil and South Africa spending on education as percentage
of GDP is around 5.6 and 6.0 percent. The developing South
Asian economies like Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh
spend less than 3.5 percent of their GDP.
In health spending as percentage of GDP Germany, USA and
Japan spent around 11.1, 17.9 and 9.3 percent of GDP, whereas,
Brazil and South Africa spent 8.9 and 8.1 percent of GDP
respectively. In case of Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and
Bangladesh spending stands at less than 4 percent. One could
observe that the recipe to sustain economic growth at higher
trajectories is by looking into the level of investment in human
capital by the developed economies in comparison with the
developing economies like South Asia.
Table 1: GDP per Capita and Investment in HRD
Country
Germany
USA
Japan
Brazil
South
Africa
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka
Banglade
sh
Countries
by Income
Groups
GDP Per
Capita
current $
Education
Spending (%
of GDP) (A)
Health
Spending
(% of GDP)
(B)
Spending on
HRD (% of
GDP)
C=A+B
High
Income
Developed
Economies
41,863
5.1
11.1
16.1
51,749
5.6
17.9
32.2
46,720
3.8
9.3
13.1
Middle
Income
Developin
g
Economies
11,340
5.8
8.9
14.7
7,508
6.0
8.1
14.1
1,257
2.4
2.5
4.9
1,489
3.3
3.9
7.2
2,923
2.0
3.4
5.4
752
2.2
3.7
6.0
Low
Income
Developin
g
Economies
Source: World Development Indicators, 2013
High income economies have a double digit spending in HRD as

percentage of GDP (see Table 1). Even in case of middle income
economies like Brazil and South Africa their spending on HRD
as percentage of GDP is 14.7 and 14.1 percent respectively. The
South Asian economies as shown in the Table 1 are far lower
than these levels.
34
The next section provides a literature review on HRD, economic

growth and productivity. Section 3 provides a comparison of
HRD indicators in Pakistan and across South Asia. This is
followed by an analysis of sectoral labour productivity in
Pakistan overtime. Section 5 concludes with policy
recommendations.
HRD, Economic Growth and Productivity
Empirical literature has highlighted various dimensions of HRD
which influence work force productivity and its spill over effects
on economic growth. HRD plays an important role in attracting
and encouraging foreign and local investment and technology
transfer. Silva (1997) argued that appropriate human capital goes
hand in hand with economic, trade and investment policies. Both
are interlinked and their effect cannot be separated. It is further
added that returns on human capital are not spontaneous therefore
planning has to be done at the right time to generate effective
results.
Ichniowski et al. (1997) and Wood (1999) emphasized that high
performance work place accompany with good Human Resource
Management (HRM) policies increase the productivity by
motivating workers (see also Bartel,1994). Good HRM policies
contribute towards loyalty and commitments of workers to do
their tasks and willingness to do better job. Arthur (1994) studies
the impact of HR policies on steel industries and found that
productivity level of the mills who have adopted good HR
policies is higher than the industries with no HR policies. Batt
(2002) and Zwick (2002) attributed that high performance work
place has significant effect on firm productivity.
Andries de Grip, IngeSieben (2003) study the impact of HRD in
small pharmaceutical firms and argue that small firms do not
benefited from advance HRM policies, moreover in small firms
personal relation between employer and employees are given
more importance than workers productivity levels. Horwitz
(1996) pointed out that adaptation of HRD and Management
approaches at the same time developed efficient labour and
organizational change. Whereas, proper information is significant
for development, monitoring, appraising the efficiency of HRD
and diversity of management.
35
Cheong (2012) study the impact of HRD on economic growth of

Macao and attribute knowledge as vital factor for productivity,
economic growth and employment. Education expenditure
increased considerably which resulted in enhancing educational
skills of workforce. It is also analyzed that workers with lower
educational level are more likely to remain unemployed.
Ranis (2004) argued that Human Development (HD)is an
essential requirement for sustainable growth but it depends on a
specific HD level. In this regard, government policy and public
funding are important elements that put forward a nation beyond
threshold HD level. Targeted government investment comprise of
investment in education, health and improvement in governance.
Afza and Nazir (2007) examined the function of HRD as an
instrument to enhance economic competitiveness in South Asian
region with respect to Pakistan. Their findings show that global
markets have raised economic competitiveness which is a key for
foreign direct investment. Furthermore, knowledge and expertise
of labour force are crucial for nations and should be the policy
target for development and competitiveness. They suggest that
Pakistan can develop its human capital by providing education, in
line with the market demand locally and abroad.
Wahab et al. (2013) study the impact of HRD on remittances for
South Asian economies and their finding shows that south Asian
economies including India, Bangladesh and Pakistan were top
recipient of workers' remittances in 2010. Based on econometric
analysis, it is suggested that an increased stock and quality of
human resources raises remittance inflows, implying the need for
policies to improve education and training.
Sharif et al. (2013) validate that HRD is important factor in
development of Bangladesh. By using econometric analysis their
findings show positive link between HRD and economic growth.
Furthermore, Investment in education shows significant
contribution while research and development expenditures also
play a constructive role.
HRD Patterns in Pakistan and South Asia
Pakistan is home to more than 184 million people and it is
estimated that 17.2 percent people were living below poverty line
in 2007 (World Bank 2009). One could observe significant
36
decline in poverty from 34 percent in 2002 to 17.2 percent in

2007 but in 2008, due to global financial crisis exports of
Pakistan to EU market significantly declined, aid flows also
reduced and balance of payments was exposed to commodity
market volatilities which resulted in declining foreign reserves,
reduced production and higher unemployment. Pakistan being a
frontline state in the war against terror, faced the problem of
deterioration in law and order, prohibited investors to enter into
longer term investment contracts.
The on-going energy crisis which aggravated after 2007-08 due
to higher oil prices not only discouraged the foreign investor but
also led to closure of substantial proportion of Small and Medium
Enterprises (SMEs) in Pakistan. The SME sector could not
absorb the higher input costs and the overall costs of production,
increased to a level, where unprecedented labour in Punjab and
Sind provinces had to be laid off.
Going forward Pakistan will need to address the short term
irritants like the lack of energy in order to reach its potential
growth rate of 5-6 percent. Beyond this, major structural reforms
are required in order to set the country on a path of higher growth
trajectory where productivity gains can be realized. Investment in
HRD remains one such reform which needs to be coordinated
from the highest tiers of the Government.
It is important that high performance workers should not merely
be seen as economic units of labour. Equally important is to
understand that empowering working age population through
prudent HRD policies, programs and projects results in a grass
roots level social change. Countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia
and Sri Lanka have realized exactly such a phenomenon.
37
Table 2: Pakistan: Macroeconomic Indicators (%)

Indicator
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013(P)
GDP growth
5.5
5.0
0.4
2.6
3.7
4.4
3.6
Agriculture
growth
3.4
1.8
3.5
0.2
2.0
3.5
3.3
Industrial
sector growth
7.7
8.5
-5.2
3.4
4.7
2.7
3.5
5.6
4.9
1.3
3.2
3.9
5.3
3.7
18.7
19.2
17.5
15.8
14.1
14.9
14.2
9.2
9.5
8.8
8.9
8.5
9.4
10.1
50.3
51.7
53.7
56.3
57.2
Service
sector growth
Total
investment
(% of GDP)
Federal tax
revenue(% of
GDP)
Labour force
(millions)
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2013
Table 2 shows a downward trend in GDP growth rate - a

phenomenon that has serious implications for the poorest of the
poor in the country. Growth is certainly a necessary if not
sufficient condition for poverty reduction. Agriculture sector has
seen volatility owing to recurrent annual floods since 2010.
Industrial growth peaked during 2007-08 but plunged
dramatically to a negative 5.2 percent during 2009.
Growth in non-commodities or services sectors showed bumpy
trends in 2007 around 5.6 percent and experienced a significant
decline in 2009 standing at 1.3 percent. Investment as percentage
of GDP remains one of the lowest in South Asian region. Federal
tax revenue as percentage of GDP reached at 10.1 in 2013 which
is highest in the last 5 years however, dismally low if compared
to the average of developing Asia. The concerning aspect is that
Pakistan has a youth bulge in its population pyramid. The growth
rate of labour force is over 3.5 percent. However, the depressed
GDP growth is not enough to absorb these rising number of youth
in the working age population. This calls for a serious
introspection of HRD and growth policies in Pakistan.
In 2011, it is estimated that 57.8 million people constitutes
Pakistan labour force and among which 3.4 million are
unemployed labour force (Economic Survey 2013).Table 3 shows
38
Human Development Index values of south Asian economies for

the year 2012. Pakistan HDI value stands around 0.51 which is
low in comparison with India and Sri Lanka.
Table 3: Human Development Index 2012
Country
Human Development Index
Bangladesh
0.51
India
0.55
Nepal
0.46
Pakistan
0.51
Sri Lanka
0.71
South Asia
0.55
Source: Human DevelopmentReport 2013, UNDP
Table 4 shows that in Pakistan primary education completion rate

is very low as compared to other regional economies like Bhutan,
India, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Total net enrolment in
primary education in Pakistan is very low it stands around 66.4
percent which is inadequate in comparison with other regional
economies. Adult literacy rate in Pakistan stands around 55.5
percent which is low in comparison with India, Maldives, Nepal
and Sri Lanka.
Table 4: Education in South Asia 2009 (%)
Bangladesh
60.5
Total net
enrolment
ratio in
primary
education
89.6
Bhutan
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
88.5
94.8
119.4
70.0
61.1
88.4
95.5
96.2
73.6
66.4
52.8
62.8
98.4
59.1
55.5
Sri Lanka
97.5
95.1
90.6
South Asia
78.8
86.4
67.9
Country/Indicators
Primary
education
completion
rate
Adult literacy rate
Source: Asian Development Bank Online Database,2011
39
55.9
Years of schooling
Figure 2: Mean Year of Schooling- South Asia 2012

10
8
6
4
2
0
9.3
5.8
4.8
3.1
4.9
3.2
2.3
Source: UNDP, 2013
Figure 2 shows average year of schooling of South Asian

countries. Overall in South Asia, average year of schooling is 4.8
years. Among the South Asian countries, in Sri Lanka mean year
of schooling is reported at 9.3, in Pakistan, it is 4.9 which is
better than Afghanistan (3.1), India (2.3) and Nepal (3.2).
Table 5 : Skill Development Indicators- South Asia
Country
Higher education
and training (rank)
Quality of
education
system3
Local availability of
specialized research
& training services
Bangladesh
126
94
127
Nepal
131
116
133
India
85
39
51
Pakistan
123
87
97
Sri Lanka
62
44
46
Source: Global Competiveness Report, 2010-11, World Economic

Forum
3
Imparting quality and new education with higher education means the
increase in the enrolment from secondary level to the college or
university level.
40
Table 5 shows skill development indicators of south Asian

countries. In higher education and training ranking, Pakistan
ranked at 123, showing its performance poor in comparison with
India and Sri Lanka, ranked at 85 and 62 respectively. In terms of
quality of education Pakistan ranked at 87, again, performing
poor in comparison with India and Sri Lanka which are ranked at
39 and 44. In local availability of specialized research and
training services, Pakistan ranked at 97 which are far behind the
regional economies like India and Sri Lanka which are ranked at
51 and 46.
Table 6: Health Indicators of South Asian Countries
Countries
Mortality
rate, infant
(per 1000 live
births)
Life
expectancy at
birth, total
(years)
Population
growth
(annual %)
Population
(million)
Birth rate,
crude (per
1,000 people)
Death rate,
crude (per
1,000 people)
Health
expenditure,
total (% of
GDP)
Fertility rate,
total (births
per woman)
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri
Lanka
43.8
33.6
69.3
8.3
67.5
66.0
67.5
66.3
73.9
1.2
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.7
1.0
154.7
0.7
1236.7
27.5
179.2
20.3
20.6
20.2
21.0
22.3
26.2
18.3
5.8
6.6
7.9
6.8
7.0
7.0
3.7
4.1
3.9
5.4
2.5
3.4
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.5
3.3
2.3
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
33.1
35.7
69.9
Source: World Development Indicators,World Bank, 2013
41
Table 6 shows health indicators of South Asian countries. In

Pakistan infant mortality rate stands around 69.3 per 1000 live
births which are the highest among the South Asian countries.
Annual population growth rate of Pakistan stands around 1.7
percent which is very high. If country unable to control its
population growth then it is projected that the population may
cross 342 million by the end of 2050 and country will become
4thlargest nation by population. Pakistan crude birth rate stands
around 26.2 per thousand people which are very high in
comparison with other South Asian countries. While crude death
rate in Pakistan is reported at 7 which is better than India but
worst in comparison with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
Fertility rate is reported at 3.3 which, is very high among the
South Asian countries. It is observed that the health expenditures
as percentage of GDP,is 2.5 percent which is very the low in
comparison with Bhutan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri
Lanka. Poor performance of health indicators may be attributed
to low expenditures in health as percentage of GDP.
Table 7:Skills Development in South Asia
Countries
Afghanistan
(2008)
Bangladesh
(2013)
Bhutan
(2009)
India
(2006)
Nepal
(2013)
Pakistan
(2007)
Sri Lanka
(2011)
South Asia
Percent of
firms offering
formal
training
Proportion
of unskilled
workers
(out of all
production
workers)
(%)
Percent of
firms
identifying
labour
regulations as
a major
constraint
Percent of firms
identifying an
inadequately
educated
workforce as a
major constraint
14.6
29.9
4.5
18.0
21.9
21.3
3.4
15.7
29.9
...
16.4
12.6
15.9
36.3
9.2
14.5
31.9
15.2
2.7
9.1
4.5
19.1
6.4
8.1
13.1
14.6
12.7
16.0
19.3
20.0
7.7
13.2
Source:World Bank Enterprise Survey, 2013
Table 7 shows that in Pakistan 4.5 percent of the firms offered

formal trainings to their employees in the year 2007. There are
42
19.1 percent unskilled workers out of all production workers, in

India unskilled worker are reported high at 36.3 percent in the
year 2006 where as in Sri Lanka and Nepal it is reported at 14.6
and 15.2 percent in the years 2011 and 2013 respectively. In
Pakistan 6.4 percent of the firms believe that labour regulations is
a major constraint in their productivity, this percentage is high in
Bhutan which is 16.4 percent, however years of figures are
different i.e. 2006 and 2009 respectively. In Pakistan 8.1 percent
of the firms believe that lack of educated workers is major
constraint in productivity.
Labour Productivity in Pakistan
Labour productivity is an important determinant of long run
economic growth. It increases the economy-wide average wage
rate and helps to mitigate poverty. It brings greater efficiency in
the goods market and encourages foreign as well as local
investors to invest more towards skills development of their
employees. Eventually the knowledge and skills paradigm
defines the competitiveness levels across firms and countries.
Theoretically labour productivity can be enhanced by investing in
education, health, vocational trainings and through prudent labour
market laws and policies. Equally important is to have
institutional reforms, in place that help in curtailing the brain
drain in the developing economies like South Asia.
43
Figure 3:Labour Productivity "per hours" Worked, by all

Sectors (constant factor cost in PKR)
All sectors
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Labour Productivity "per hours" Worked, in

DifferentSectors
(constant factor cost in PKR)
Agriculture
Manufacturing
80
60
40
20
0
30
28
26
24
22
Mining
Construction
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
1500
1000
500
0
44
Wholesales and retail trade
Electricity, gas and water
55
300
50
200
45
100
40
Source: Pakistan Labour Force Survey, 2013
Figure 4 shows that over the last one decade there is declining
trend in education and health expenditures which results in
declining labour productivity in all the sectors of the economy.
Declining trends in labour productivity push the country toward
low economic growth equilibrium.
Figure 4: Investment in HRD (as Percentage of GDP)
Public Spending on Education (% of GDP)
Linear (Public Spending on Education (% of GDP))
4
3
2
1
0
45
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2004
2000
2002
35
Health Expenditure (% of GDP)

Linear (Health Expenditure (% of GDP))
4
3
2
1
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Conclusion
Pakistan economic growth is dwindling over the time which may
be attributed to global financial crisis of 2008, floods of 2010,
poor law and order situation due to front line ally in war against
terrorism, declining trend in FDI, growing debt to GDP ratio and
low tax base. Study has highlighted the fundamental need of
HRD for fast growing population of the country. Over the period,
Pakistan has performed poor in human capital development in
comparison with regional economies like Bangladesh, India, Sri
Lanka and Nepal. Pakistan's poor performance in HRD indicators
are due to decline in investment in human capital over the time.
The skills development programs must cater to the demands of
employers in value added agriculture, industry and services
sectors. The vocational institutions also need to carefully look at
their syllabi in the light of developments overseas, where,
Pakistani Diaspora has potential for employment. Greater
coordination is required between Federal and Provincial
Governments for eliminating fragmentation of HRD programs
across the country. The Governance of public sector education
and skills development institutions may be improved through
allowing private management, as seen in the Punjab province.
Apart from the above, there are major governance reforms
required in HRD. After the 18th Constitutional Amendment (in
2011) education, health and vocational training have become
provincial subjects to the extent of funds management and actual
implementation on-ground. However, it is important to note that
this devolution does not excuse the Federal Government from its
policy and planning role in HRD. Since2011, the Federal
46
Government has not been able to engage the Provincial

Governments pro-actively on HRD promotion. It is of utmost
importance that the Council of Common Interests, a
constitutional body that has responsibility of overseeing
implementation of economy-wide national level reforms, should
put forward a consensus based plan for HRD uplift in a manner
that it becomes binding on all provincial Governments. The
National Planning Commission can be designated as the
coordinator for this purpose.
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48
VOLUME 9 NUMBER 1 DECEMBER 2013
SAARC HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT CENTRE
ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN

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