Problema 1

a)
Ao

Cantidad vendida
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

35
50
75
90
105
110
130

Cantidad vendida
140
f(x) = 15.5357142857x + 22.8571428571
R = 0.9794254658

120
100

Cantidad vendida

80

Linear (Cantidad vendida)

60
40
20
0
0

Pronstico
Semana 8
Semana 9

147
163

dad vendida

r (Cantidad vendida)

b)

Promedio mvil de tres trminos

Forecasting

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period

3
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
Absolute

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Next period

35
50
75
90
105
110
130

53.333333333
71.666666667
90
101.66666667
Total
Average

36.666666667 36.666666667
33.333333333 33.333333333
20
20
28.333333333 28.333333333
118.33333333 118.33333333
29.58333333 29.58333333
Bias
MAD
SE

115

Pronstico de ventas para la prxima semana =

115 unidades

Squared

Abs Pct Err

1344.4444444
40.74%
1111.1111111
31.75%
400
18.18%
802.77777778
21.79%
3658.3333333
112.46%
914.5833333
28.12%
MSE
MAPE
42.76875807

b) Promedio mvil de cinco trminos

Forecasting

Moving averages - 5 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period

5
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
Absolute

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

35
50
75
90
105
110
130

71
86

39
44
83
41.5

Total
Average
Bias
Next period

39
44
83
41.5
MAD
SE

102

Pronstico de ventas para la prxima semana =

102 unidades

Squared

1521
1936
3457
1728.5
MSE

Abs Pct Err

35.45%
33.85%
69.30%
34.65%
MAPE

#DIV/0!
Not enough data to compute the standard error

c) Suavizamiento exponencial

Forecasting

Alpha
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period

Exponential smoothing

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1),
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the firs
fir

0.3
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Next period

35
50
75
90
102
110
130

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error
Absolute
35
0
0
35
15
15
39.5
35.5
35.5
50.15
39.85
39.85
62.105
39.895
39.895
74.0735
35.9265
35.9265
84.85145
45.14855
45.14855
Total
211.32005
211.32005
Average 30.18857857 30.18857857
Bias
MAD
SE

98.396015

Pronstico de ventas para la prxima semana =

98 unidades

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Squared

Abs Pct Err

0
00.00%
225
30.00%
1260.25
47.33%
1588.0225
44.28%
1591.611025
39.11%
1290.7134023
32.66%
2038.3915671 0.3472965385
7993.9884944
228.11%
1141.998356
32.59%
MSE
MAPE
39.98496841

d) Anlisis de tendencia lineal

Forecasting

Simple linear regression

IfIf this
this isis trend
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the demand
demand column.
column. IfIf
this
this isis causal
causal regression
regression then
then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs with
with yy first
first and
and enter
enter aa new
new value
value of
of
xx at
at the
the bottom
bottom in
in order
order to
to forecast
forecast y.
y.

Data
Period
Semana
Semana
Semana
Semana
Semana
Semana
Semana

Demand (y)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

35
50
75
90
105
110
130

Intercept
Slope

22.8571429
15.5357143

Forecast

147.142857

Period(x)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error
38.392857143 -3.3928571429
53.928571429 -3.9285714286
69.464285714 5.5357142857
85
5
100.53571429 4.4642857143
116.07142857 -6.0714285714
131.60714286 -1.6071428571
Total
-1.42109E-014
Average
-2.0301E-015
Bias

Coefficient of determination
Semana 8
Semana 9
Semana 10

Pronstico
147
163
178

8
9
10

r Analysis
Absolute
Squared
Abs Pct Err
3.3928571429 11.511479592
09.69%
3.9285714286 15.433673469
07.86%
5.5357142857 30.644132653
07.38%
5
25
05.56%
4.4642857143 19.929846939
04.25%
6.0714285714 36.862244898
05.52%
1.6071428571 2.5829081633
01.24%
30 141.96428571
41.49%
4.285714286 20.28061224
05.93%
MAD
MSE
MAPE
SE
5.328494829

Correlation
0.989659268
fficient of determination 0.979425466

e)

En base a la desviacin media absoluta (MAD) el mejor de los pronsticos es el de a

e los pronsticos es el de alisis de tendencia lineal, ya que tiene la menor desviacin.