Navigational safety management

Maritime University of Szczecin

Szczecinie
Lucjan Gucma

KAREN DANIELSEN kolizja z Mostem Zachodnim

w Wielkim Becie (3 marzec 2005, 1 osoba zgina)

Questions
Do we assess the risk in costal areas (territorial waters?)- NO
Do we manage the risk there?
- NO
Do we assess the risk in port areas?
- Single cases
Do we manage the risk in port areas as whole?
- NO
Do we have some regulations in this field
- NO
Do we make changes to increase the safety
- YES
On what assumptions?
- Expert?
Do other BS countries are active on this field
- YES
What are those countries?
- Denmark, Finland

Navigational accidents are rare

Serious accidents in southern part of the Baltic Sea

Accidents in the Polish part of the Baltic Sea

Accidents outside the ports (without fishing vessels)

Accidents in the Polish part of the Baltic Sea

movement
accidents

Accidents vs movement of ships

Accidents in the port areas

Accidents on the Szczecin-winoujcie waterway

Risk as the measure of safety

R = S * P [$/time]

Main criteria of risk acceptability

I
Individual risk
R<10.000 $/year

III
Economical risk

II
Societal risk

Navigational safety management system (NSMS)

Fully developed system of safety management

Legal aspects and NSMS

International Maritime Organization
FSA Formal Safety Assessment
ISM Code
EMSA (European Maritime Safety Agency)
SafeSeaNet
IALA (International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities)
Risk Management Tool For Ports and Restricted Waterways
Baltic Sea (Denmark, Finland, Sweden)
HELCOM
EfficienSea project
BalticMaster I and II project
Other countries: GB (Port Marine Safety Code), USA, Canada, Australia,
New Zealand

IALA Risk Management Tool For Ports and Restricted Waterways

The navigational safety mangement systems is devided into:

1. Port areas
1. Accident data bases
2. Expert (pilot) opinion

ZEUS

2. Coastal areas
1.AIS based incidents raports
2. Model of navigation safety
and
Expert opinion
Accidents data bases

The procedure of navigational safety mangement system

ZEUS
Procedure of NSMS on costal areas

Navigational incidents model

(iceberg model)

Accident Pyramid
Heinrich and others (human factor accidents)

Serious injury, fatality

1
Light injury
10

30

600

Accident with losses

(no human involved)

Incident

Model of incident investigation

Observability of accidents (road transportation)

Observable

Partly observable

Not observable

Accidents

Incidents - near misses

???

Situation potentially
dangerous

Model of incident investigation

Observability of accidents different sectors of transportation

A Accident; I&NM Incidents and near missess; PDS Potentially dangerous

situations

Model of navigational incident investigation

valid for given area only

Accidents

n
f function of relation i/a
Incidents (near misses)
f=(A, W, Ts, ?)
where:
A - area,
Wa - conditions
Ts - ships type

i=f(n)

Potenetially dangerous
situation

Catastrophes in different transportation branches

Fatalities (n) and catastrophes (ni>5) in different transportation sectors

(Great Britain 1967 2001)

Grounding incidents
Division on:
ship size
conditions
area (width)
VTS
TSS

Most important issue will be

how to describe incidents where no
lossess occured
with risk described by R=PC
and what is the uncerainty of such
relation
R=f(Incidents)

Clasification of incidents on the base:

distance to danger
course
additionaly speed to consequences analysis

Grounding and collision incident models

Monitoring of ships movement based on AIS

AIS stations on Polish coast

Own application for ships monitoring

based on Google Earth

Monitoring of ships movement based on AIS

Helcom network of ships movement monitoring

Model iterface

Navigation incident analysis in Pomerianian Bay

Na kursach przeciwnych

55.2

160
135

140

120
120

112
0.1

100

55

92

91

0.2

92

0.3
79

80

0.4
0.5

66

0.6

60

0.7
0.8

40

54.8

20

0
0.1

54.6

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Linia brzegowa
Linia brzegowa
Kursy przeciwne (0 - 0,1)
Kursy przeciwne (0,1 - 0,2)
Kursy przeciwne (0,2 - 0,3)

54.4

Kursy przeciwne (0,3 - 0,4)

Kursy przeciwne (0,4 - 0,5)
Kursy przeciwne (0,5 - 0,6)

54.2

Kursy przeciwne (0,6 - 0,7)

Kursy przeciwne (0,7 - 0,8)

54
13

13.5

14

14.5

15

Possible incident places in collision situation (opposite courses)

0.7

0.8

Navigation incident analysis in Pomerianian Bay

55.2

Na kursach przecinajcych si
600
547
505
500

474

0.1
0.2

55

400

0.3

378

0.4
338

300

337

0.5
281

272

293

0.6
0.7

239
217

0.8

220

0.9

200

Linia
brzegowa
100
Linia brzegowa
0
0.2
0.3
0.4
Kursy0.1przecinajce
si
(00.5- 0,1)0.6
Kursy przecinajce si (0,1 - 0,2)
Kursy przecinajce si (0,2 - 0,3)
Kursy przecinajce si (0,3 - 0,4)
Kursy przecinajce si (0,4 - 0,5)
Kursy przecinajce si (0,5 - 0,6)
Kursy przecinajce si (0,6 - 0,7)
Kursy przecinajce si (0,7 - 0,8)
Kursy przecinajce si (0,8 - 0,9)
Kursy przecinajce si (0,9 - 1,0)
Kursy przecinajce si (1,0 - 1,1)
Kursy przecinajce si (1,1 - 1,2)

54.8

54.6

54.4

54.2

1.1
1.2

0.7

0.8

54
13

13.5

14

14.5

15

Possible incident places in collision situation (crossing courses)

0.9

1.1

1.2

Navigation incident analysis in Pomerianian Bay

55.2
Na kursach rwnolegych
450
406
400

55

350
300
260

0.1
241

250

0.2
0.3

200

54.8

0.4

171

150

0.5

132

100
50

54.6

0
0.1 brzegowa
Linia

0.2

0.3

0.4

Linia brzegowa
Kursy rwnolege (0 - 0,1)
Kursy rwnolege (0,1 - 0,2)

54.4

Kursy rwnolege (0,2 - 0,3)

Kursy rwnolege (0,3 - 0,4)
Kursy rwnolege (0,4 - 0,5)

54.2

54
13

13.5

14

14.5

15

Possible incident places in collision situation (paralel courses)

0.5

The procedure of navigational safety mangement system

ZEUS
Procedure of NSMS on costal areas

Simulation methods
Overview

1. Real time mathods (navigator in the loop )

2. Fast time manoeuvring simulators (model of nawigatora)
3. Stochastic microscopic models based on Monte Carlo
principles

Real time simulators

developement
80 - PC (HP)

00 - WIndows

70 - Odra

90 - DOS

Real time simulation method

Navigator (interactive side)

Simulation methods
Stochastic simulations with ship traffic stream (SMOB)

Stochastic model of ship general overview

SMOB model first aplication 2002

Passage and trenching of underwater pipelines

550000

coast line
izobath 10m

540000

SMOB model

Balitc Sea

Spatial planning
- offshore wind turbines

approach to winoujcie
polish EEZ border

530000 polish teritorial waters border

3 alternatives of wind turbine farm

localization
520000 ship's courses

places of main engine failures

during 100 years of simulation
510000 example simulated accidents of
no.3 alternative

3
2

500000

490000

480000

470000

Poland
winoujcie
460000
[m] 750000
760000

770000

780000

790000

800000

810000

Model of navigational accidents

Southern Baltic grounding and collision accidents model
Route chracteristics (52 routes implemented) from AIS data:
-Ships type distribution (6 different kinds of ships)
-Ships intensity on given route
-Ships cargo and bunker capacity (distribution)
-Ships dimension (distributions)
-Variability of route points (distribution)

3.5

SMOB
Collision model

nA

2.5

Collisions

nC = 0.3143 Y - 627.52

Groundings

1.5
1

nG = 0.0571 Y - 114.1
0.5
0
1999

Stochastic model of ship collision model

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Collision model validation

1.00E-06
2005
2000

1.00E-05

Head on

Cross

Overtake

1.00E-04

Probability of collision accident in different encounter situations in 2000 and 2005

Grounding model

where:
A-accident
G-geometric
HE-human error
SA-serious accident
0.4
f(x)

0.3

0.2

0.1

4500

4000

3500

-3

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
15000

l =1,0km

r=1,5km

= 0.1065D + 476.12
R 2 = 0.7595

D [m]
20000

25000

30000

35000

-2

-1

x [km]

Fire onboard model

Prpbability of fire:
Pf= 5.18*10^-08 1/km
1

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
mean time to extinquish [h]

0.1
0
0

10

15

20

Probability of extinguishing in time

25

30

ADRIYATIK CASE

Results collisons

Collisions during long time period (700 calculation years)

Results groundings

Groundings during long time period (700 calculation years)

Results fire on board

Fire on boards during long time period (700 calculation years)

Model of oil spills - Baltic Master project

0.6

P
0.7

Collision

Tanker size [DWT]

Grounding

0.5

0.6

0-2000
2000-5000
5000-20000
20000-50000
50000-BaltMax

Fire
Probability

0.5

0.4
0.3

0.4

Collision

0.3
0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0
0-500

500-1000
Spill size [tons]

0-2000

2000-5000

5000-20000

20000-50000

Ships size [DWT]

100010000

500000100000

100000BaltMax

50000BaltMax
0.7

0.8

Tanker size [DWT]

Tanker size [DWT]

0.7

0.6

0-2000
2000-5000
5000-20000
20000-50000
50000-BaltMax

0.5
0.4

Fire

0.3
0.2

0-2000
2000-5000
5000-20000
20000-50000
50000-BaltMax

0.5
Probability

0.6
Probability

1000050000

0.4
0.3

Grounding

0.2
0.1

0.1

0
0-500

500-1000
Spill size [tons]

100010000

1000050000

500000100000

100000BaltMax

0-500

500-1000
Spill size [tons]

100010000

1000050000

500000100000

Statistical oil spill model (based on more than 1000 accidents from 3 independent sources)

100000BaltMax

Bunker oil spill model

Probability of bunker spill:

5000

0.12
0.017

- P (spill after collision)

4500

- P (spill after grounding)

4000

- P (spill after fire)

3500
Bunker spill [tons]

0.125

-5

v = 152 exp(3*10 DWT)

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

20000

40000

60000

80000

Ships size in DWT [tons]

Statistical model of bunker spill

100000

120000

Stochastic model of oil spills after collision

6600000

6500000

6400000

[tons]

6300000

<200
6200000

200-500
500-1000

6100000

1000-5000
>5000

6000000

5900000
250000

350000

450000

550000

650000

750000

850000

950000

1050000

Simulated places of oil spills after collison

(700 calculation years)

1150000

Stochastic model of oil spills after grounding

6600000

6500000

6400000

[tons]

6300000

<200
200-500

6200000

500-1000
1000-5000

6100000

>5000
6000000

5900000
250000

350000

450000

550000

650000

750000

850000

950000

1050000

Simulated places of oil spills after grounding

(700 calculation years)

1150000

Stochastic model of oil spills after fire on board

6600000

6500000

6400000

6300000

[tons]
<200

6200000
200-1000
500-1000
6100000
1000-5000
>5000
6000000

5900000
250000

350000

450000

550000

650000

750000

850000

950000

1050000

Simulated places of oil spills after fire on board

(700 calculation years)

1150000

Stochastic model of navigational safety

Model validation
Year

Ships name

Spill size [t]

Localisation

2003

Fu Shan Hai

1,200

Bornholm,
Denmark/Sweden

2001

Baltic Carrier

2,700

Kadetrenden, Denmark

1998

Nunki

100

Kalundborg Fjord,
Denmark

1995

Hual Trooper

180

The Sound, Sweden

1990

Volgoneft

1,000

Karlskrona, Sweden

SMOB model

2744

Cost Benefit Analysis

VTS Slovenia

2742

2740

2738

2736

2734

2732

2730
800

805

810

815

820

825

6280000

depth contour 10m

6230000

coast
routes
G4out

6180000

collisions

G1in

G1out

fires
6130000
G4in
G2out G3out
S2out
S3

6080000
S2in

G2in G3in
6030000

S1

Gdansk

POLAND
Swinoujscie
5980000
6280000
250000

350000

450000

550000

650000

750000

depth contour 10m

6230000

coast
G4out

6180000

routes
G1in

G1out

groundings

6130000
G4in
G2out G3out
S2out
S3

6080000
S2in

G2in G3in
6030000

5980000
250000

POLAND

S1

Gdansk

Swinoujscie
350000

450000

550000

650000

750000

SMOB model
Polish LNG terminal

Safety management system...futher steps

Completing and validation of incident model
Stochastic model modernisation and futher developament
Practical application of the system
Coopertion with other institutes, research teams, projects