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6.4
-5.6
CY2012
35.1
26.2
29.0
36.0
CY2011
-20.5
-21.2
-21.7
-25.0
CY2010
16.8
11.5
12.9
11.5
CY2009
116.1
76.1
72.0
114.0
300
200
100
Sharekhan
Sensex
Apr-16
8.5
Aug-16
12.4
Dec-15
CY2013
400
Apr-15
55.1
Aug-15
30.9
Dec-14
29.9
Apr-14
63.6
Aug-14
CY2014
500
Dec-13
6.5
Apr-13
-4.1
Aug-13
-5.1
Dec-12
13.9
Apr-12
CY2015
600
Aug-12
14.7
Dec-11
10.6
Apr-11
8.8
Aug-11
18.7
5 years
195.7
69.0
74.9
101.6
700
Dec-10
YTD CY2016
3 years
159.4
52.2
59.4
133.2
Constantly beating Nifty and Sensex (cumulative returns since April 2009)
Apr-10
Aug-10
Nifty
Dec-09
Sensex
Apr-09
Sharekhan
(Top Picks)
Aug-09
(%)
1 year
21.8
8.1
10.2
17.7
Nifty
Please note the returns are based on the assumption that at the beginning of each month an equal amount was invested in each stock of the Top Picks basket
Name
Ashok Leyland
Britannia Industries
Capital First
Finolex Cables
HDFC Bank
HUL
IndusInd Bank
Kansai Nerolac
Maruti Suzuki
PI Industries
Rico Auto
ZEE Entertainment
CMP*
(Rs)
88
3,454
700
444
1,291
914
1,191
371
5,053
807
62
540
FY16
22.5
49.8
38.4
27.2
26.5
47.4
31.0
55.6
33.4
36.3
25.0
48.3
PER (x)
FY17E
15.7
41.4
27.0
24.5
21.8
41.6
24.0
45.9
24.0
27.3
14.9
43.1
*CMP as on August 31, 2016 # Price target for next 6-12 months
Sharekhan
FY18E
13.1
34.5
19.0
21.8
17.8
34.9
18.3
38.1
19.8
22.9
12.0
28.4
** Under review
FY16
20.2
55.3
10.1
28.6
18.3
83.3
16.1
15.6
17.0
32.6
7.2
24.4
RoE (%)
FY17E
25.9
48.7
13.2
23.7
19.1
62.2
16.7
17.6
20.3
34.6
10.9
24.2
Price
FY18E target (Rs)#
27.5
120
43.9
**
16.7
840
23.3
475
20.1
1,415
52.3
995
17.6
1,290
19.4
405
21.0
5,790
34.1
890
12.2
72
29.5
620
Upside
(%)
37
20
7
10
9
8
9
15
10
15
15
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Name
Ashok Leyland
Remarks:
CMP
(Rs)
FY16
PER (x)
FY17E
FY18E
FY16
RoE (%)
FY17E
FY18E
Price
target (Rs)
Upside
(%)
88
22.5
15.7
13.1
20.2
25.9
27.5
120
37
Ashok Leyland (ALL) is the second largest commercial vehicle (CV) manufacturer in India with a market share
of 30% in the heavy truck segment and an even higher share of 45% in the bus segment.
The medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) volume has shown double-digit growth over the last two
years, led by improved profitability of fleet operators and huge pent-up demand on a low base (due to earlier
slowdown). We expect MHCV volume to remain buoyant over FY2016-FY2017, driven by a gradual pick-up in the
economic cycle, heightened road construction activity, new vehicle launches and phase-wise implementation
of the Bharat Stage IV norms across the country (leading to pre-buying).
ALL also has a strong presence in the overseas markets and continues to expand into newer geographies. The
company expects exports contribution to be around 25% of revenues over the next 3-5 years as against the
current level of 10%. Additionally, ALLs defence business is expected to get a leg-up due to the governments
focus on indigenous manufacturing of defence products and higher foreign direct investment (FDI) in the
defence sector.
ALLs operating profit margin (OPM) has recovered from the lows on the back of operating leverage benefits
and price hikes. Its OPM is expected to expand further, given the sustained demand momentum. We expect
ALLs balance sheet to get de-leveraged and the return ratios to improve on the back of buoyant operating
cash flows and minimal capex.
Britannia Industries
Remarks:
3,454
49.8
41.4
34.5
55.3
48.7
43.9
**
Britannia Industries (Britannia) is the second largest player in the Indian biscuit market with about 30% market
share. It has chalked out an aggressive growth strategy to sustain the double-digit volume growth in the biscuit
segment by enhancing its product portfolio. It is also striving to expand into the other categories, such as dairy
(market size of Rs75,000 crore) and adjacent snacking categories (market size of Rs30,000 crore).
It is likely to maintain a 14-15% revenue growth rate, underpinned by volume a growth of 10-11% (largely
driven by enhanced distribution reach and wider product portfolio). The OPM is expected to remain in the
range of 14-15% on the back of benign input cost inflation and better operating efficiency.
The company has a strong balance sheet with the free cash flow consistently improving over the past few
years. Its return ratios have also improved over the past few years and remains strong (upwards of 50%).
Under a new leadership, Britannia has been able to leverage and monetise its strong brand equity and leading
market position in the biscuit and snack segments. We believe that Britannia can sustain its fasterthanindustry growth rates, owing to an improving distribution reach, entry into newer categories and focus on cost
efficiency. We have a Buy rating on the stock.
Sharekhan
August 2016
Name
Capital First
Remarks:
CMP
(Rs)
PER (x)
RoE (%)
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY16
FY17E
700
38.4
27.0
19.0
10.1
13.2
FY18E
Price
target (Rs)
Upside
(%)
16.7
840
20
Capital First is growing at a decent pace, and is present in high-growth area of SME, Two Wheeler and
Consumer Durables finance. The company has emerged stronger after structurally transforming its business
model by prudently focusing on high-growth retail financing and downsising its wholesale book post FY2010.
The company has clocked 40%+ CAGR in retail financing over FY2012-FY2016
CAFL has rationalised its wholesale book (to sub-15% of AUM) while increasing its retail share in total loan book
to 85%. It has also sharpened its focus on retail segments, entailing significant growth opportunities
To further strengthen retail lending growth, the company has invested in building processes, systems and
infrastructure to make inroads into high-growth, high-yield consumer durables, 2-wheelers and unsecured
business loan segments, which will help to maintain and improve retail margins
CAFLs conscious shift, from low-yielding secured SME to high-yielding and high growth consumer durables,
2-wheelers and unsecured business loans, is likely to boost overall yield, and profitability.
Finolex Cables
Remarks:
444
27.2
24.5
21.8
28.6
23.7
23.3
475
Finolex Cables (FCL) is a leading manufacturer of power and communications cables in India, having a
sizeable market share. The company is set to benefit from (1) an improving demand environment in its core
business of cables; (2) strategy to leverage its brand equity to build a high-margin consumer product business
(switchgears, fans etc). Currently, FCL is witnessing a healthy volume growth, which could improve further
once the domestic economy picks up pace.
Apart from retaining core strength in the electrical cables, FCL is gradually adding consumer electrical products
in its portfolio. Recently, it has launched fans and the switchgear facility is awaiting regulatory approval to
start production. We believe executing the strategy to add consumer-facing branded electrical products could
improve the overall profile of FCL in terms of margin and return ratios in the long term. In the near to medium
term, implementation of GST will be favorable for the company too.
While the overall business traction is steady, we highly appreciate the strong and consistent cash flow
generating ability of FCL. Prudent working capital management and a cash-rich balance sheet will enable FCL
to sustain very healthy return ratios (~20-25%). We are positive on FCL.
Sharekhan
August 2016
Name
HDFC Bank
Remarks:
CMP
(Rs)
FY16
PER (x)
FY17E
FY18E
FY16
RoE (%)
FY17E
FY18E
Price
target (Rs)
Upside
(%)
1,291
26.5
21.8
17.8
18.3
19.1
20.1
1,415
10
HDFC Bank has a pre-eminent presence in the retail banking segment (~50% of loan book) and has been able
to maintain a strong & consistent loan book growth, gradually gaining market share. Going forward, economic
recovery and improvement in consumer sentiment would be positive growth drivers for the banks loan growth,
which will in turn drive its profitability.
Backed by a current account & savings account (CASA) ratio of 40%+ and a high proportion of retail deposits,
the banks cost of funds remains among the lowest in the system, helping it to maintain higher net interest
margin (NIM). In addition, the banks loan book growth is driven by high-yielding retail products such as
personal loans, vehicle loans, credit cards, mortgages etc, mostly to own customers (which also positively
impacts NIMs).
HDFC Bank has been maintaining near impeccable asset quality, with its NPA ratios consistently been among
the lowest versus comparable peers. The bank has been able to maintain a robust asset quality due to its
stringent credit appraisal procedures, a client base and negligible exposure to troubled sectors.
HDFC Bank is well poised to tap the growth opportunities going ahead due to strong capital ratios, healthy
asset quality and steady revival in consumer spending. The bank is likely to maintain a healthy RoE of 18-20%
and RoA of 1.8% on a sustainable basis. Therefore, we expect it to sustain the valuation premium that it enjoys
vis--vis other private banks.
HUL
Remarks:
914
47.4
41.6
34.9
83.3
62.2
52.3
995
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) is Indias largest FMCG company with strong presence in personal care, home care
and packaged food segments in India. The company is a market leader in the personal wash, detergent and
shampoo segments in India.
Despite subdued demand environment, HULs volume growth stood at 6% in FY2016, up from 4% in FY2015 on
the back of relevant pricing actions and higher promotional spends.
We expect HULs volume growth trajectory to improve by 6-8% (from the current level of 4-6%) in the near
to medium term, spurred by the expected improvement in rural demand (in view of a better monsoon) and
better urban demand (due to implementation of 7th Pay Commission award and lower inflation). We expect
HULs earnings to grow at a CAGR of 15% over FY2015-FY2018 owing to higher volume growth and sustained
product innovation.
With negative working capital and strong cash generation ability, the company has a strong balance sheet
among its FMCG peers. Also, return ratios continue to remain high.
Given the improved earnings visibility, strong cash flows and higher return ratios, we have maintained a Buy
recommendation with a PT of Rs995.
Sharekhan
August 2016
Name
IndusInd Bank
Remarks:
CMP
(Rs)
PER (x)
RoE (%)
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY16
FY17E
1,191
31.0
24.0
18.3
16.1
16.7
FY18E
Price
target (Rs)
Upside
(%)
17.6
1,290
IndusInd Bank is among the fastest growing banks (26% CAGR over FY2012-FY2016), with a loan book of Rs93,678
crore and 1,000 branches across the country. About 55% of the banks loan book comprises of retail finance,
which is a high-yielding category, and is showing signs of growth.
Given the aggressive measures taken by the management, the deposit profile has improved considerably (CASA
ratio of ~35%). Going ahead, the bank would follow a differentiated branch expansion strategy (5% branch
market share in identified centers) to help in ensuring healthy growth in savings accounts and retail deposits.
IndusInd Bank has maintained its asset quality despite sluggish economic growth and higher proportion of
Retail finance in its loan book. The banks asset quality is among the best in the industry, with total stressed
loans (restructured loans + gross NPAs) forming just 1.4% of the loan book.
A likely revival in the domestic economy will further fuel growth in the banks consumer finance division
while strong capital ratios will support future growth plans. The stock should continue to trade at a premium
valuation, underpinned by strong loan growth, quality management, high RoAs and healthy asset quality. We
have a positive outlook on IndusInd Bank.
Kansai Nerolac
Remarks:
Sharekhan
371
55.6
45.9
38.1
15.6
17.6
19.4
405
Kansai Nerolac Paints (KNPL) is the third largest paint company in India with an overall market share of ~16%
in the decorative paints segment. The implementation of the Seventh Pay Commission recommendations and
the introduction of GST (shift from non-branded to branded products) would help boost the urban consumption
of paints, while a normal monsoon would boost rural demand.
KNPL is a market leader in the industrial paints business with a 60% market share. Around 75% of its industrial
paints business revenues come from auto coatings. A favourable outlook for the auto industry for the next 1-2
years will boost the companys industrial segment revenues.
KNPLs decorative paints business has better margins compared to the industrial paints business. KNPLs
growing thrust on enhancing its presence in the decorative paint business and expectations of stable raw
material prices in the near term are expected to lift the operating profit margin by 40-50BPS in the next couple
of years.
KNPLs revenues and earnings are expected to clock a CAGR of 14% and 19%, respectively over FY2016-FY2018
on the back of its relentless focus on enhancing presence in the decorative paints business and the expected
improvement in the sales of automotive paints. We have a positive view on KNPL.
August 2016
Name
Maruti Suzuki
Remarks:
Sharekhan
FY16
PER (x)
FY17E
FY18E
FY16
RoE (%)
FY17E
FY18E
Price
target (Rs)
Upside
(%)
5,053
33.4
24.0
19.8
17.0
20.3
21.0
5,790
15
Maruti Suzuki India (Maruti) is Indias largest passenger vehicle (PV) manufacturer with a strong 47% market
share. The company has been able to gain market share over the last two years due to new product launches,
vast distribution network (with an increased focus on the rural markets) and a shift in consumer preference
to petrol models from diesel models.
The recently launched premium hatchback Baleno has received a strong response, which will help Maruti to
expand its market share in the segment. Also, the company recently entered the compact sports utility vehicle
(SUV) space with the launch of Vitara Brezza and has received an encouraging response. Both the new products
command a waiting period of 6-8 months each. Further, Maruti recently entered into the light commercial
vehicle (LCV) segment, which would further boost its topline.
Maruti is poised to reap the benefits of an increase in discretionary spending from the 7th Pay Commission
pay-out. The commencement of the first phase of the Gujarat plant with a 2.5 lakh capacity is scheduled in
Q4FY17. The management plans to double its sales and premium distribution network (NEXA) in order to
achieve its target of doubling the domestic volumes over the next five years.
PI Industries
Remarks:
CMP
(Rs)
807
36.3
27.3
22.9
32.6
34.6
34.1
890
10
PI Industries (PII) is one of the leading companies in the Indian agro-chemicals industry with a unique business
model. Its key focused areas are branded products (in-license products) and custom synthesis & manufacturing
(CSM) (high-growth segment).
PII makes and market a niche product in agrochemicals, which help it to outpace the industry growth. CSM is
contributing ~60% to the total revenue. This segment is growing at CAGR of ~30% for the last three years, and
we believe it would be the key growth driver in the coming years.
PII has guided for a strong outlook for both, the domestic business (on expectations of a normal monsoon)
as well as the CSM business, citing a better demand scenario (three new molecules added in FY2016 and 1 in
Q1FY2017) and capacity addition at Jambusar (likely to support 18-20% revenue growth over the next couple
of years.
On the EBIDTA margin front, PII has guided for 100-150BPS improvement on account of better operational
efficiency (reduction in fixed costs) and a favorable product mix. The companys order book remains steady at
$850 million. PII has lined up a capex of ~Rs200 crore for FY2017 and ~Rs150 crore for FY2018.
August 2016
Name
Rico Auto
Remarks:
PER (x)
RoE (%)
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY16
FY17E
62
25.0
14.9
12.0
7.2
10.9
FY18E
Price
target (Rs)
Upside
(%)
12.2
72
15
Rico Auto Industries (RAI) is among the leading players in the auto component space in India. It manufactures
and supplies world-class high precision and fully machined components & assemblies (both aluminum and
ferrous) to leading OEMs and Tier 1 customers across the globe. The company has hived off its loss-making
subsidiaries / JVs in the past.
oing ahead, a strong demand outlook from key clients - Hero MotoCorp and Maruti Suzuki - would fuel growth
G
for the company. RAI has commissioned a new plant in Chennai targeted at Renault, and would gradually tie up
with other automobile OEMs in South India. Further, it is in the process of setting up a new plant in Rajasthan,
which is likely to go on stream by Q3FY2018.
AI delivered a strong operating performance in Q1FY2017, driven by lower commodity prices, cost control
R
measures and improved performance from the JV/ subsidiaries. The companys revenue was up 8% YoY, which
was a surprise. Given the strong operating performance and benefits of operating leverage, the adjusted PAT
more than trebled in Q1FY2017. We expect the earnings to post a CAGR of 45% between FY16-FY18.
ZEE Entertainment
Remarks:
CMP
(Rs)
540
48.3
43.1
28.4
24.4
24.2
29.5
620
15
Among the key players of the domestic Cable TV industry, we expect the broadcasters to be the prime
beneficiaries of the mandatory digitisation process initiated by the government. The broadcasters would
benefit from higher subscription revenue at the least incremental capex, as the subscriber declaration standard
improves in the Cable TV industry
The ZEEL management maintains that the advertising spend will continue to grow in double digits going
ahead and it will be able to outperform the industry. Growth in the advertising spend will be driven by an
improvement in the macro-economic factors and ZEELs leading position in terms of market share to capture
the emerging opportunities
ZEELs management has confirmed the sale of sports business to Sony Pictures Network India (SPN) in an all
cash deal of Rs2,600 crore ($385 million). The deal will improve the balance sheet strength and ZEEL will be
in a much more comfortable position to accelerate inorganic or strategic investments
We view ZEELs move to exit from the loss-making sports business as a landmark deal. Also, the managements
intent to remain a pure play media company gives us confidence on the prudent capital allocation going
forward. The management has guided that strong momentum in advertising revenue growth would continue,
led by market share gains. We continue to see ZEEL as the prime beneficiary of the macro revival and ongoing
digitization trend.
Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.
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The returns shown are exclusive of the transaction cost and therefore the actual returns from the Top Picks product may or may not exactly match the portfolio returns shown by us.
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August 2016