5

1-3 INCREMENTAL OIL

Defintion
A universal technical measure of the success of an EOR project is the amount of
incremental oil recovered. Figure 1-3 defines incremental oil. Imagine a field,
reservoir, or well whose oil rate is declining as from A to B. At B, an EOR project is
initiated and, if successful, the rate should show a deviation from the projected
decline at some time after B. Incremental oil is the difference between what was
actually recovered, B to D, and what would have been recovered had the process not
been initiated, B to C. Since areas under rate-time curves are amounts, this is the
shaded region in Fig. 1-3.

Figure 1-3. Incremental oil recovery from typical

EOR response (from Prats, 1982)

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As simple as the concept in Fig. 1-3 is, EOR is difficult to determine in

practice. There are several reasons for this.
1. Combined (comingled) production from EOR and nonEOR wells. Such
production makes it difficult to allocate the EOR-produced oil to the EOR
project. Comingling occurs when, as is usually the case, the EOR project is
phased into a field undergoing other types of recovery.
2. Oil from other sources. Usually the EOR project has experienced substantial
well cleanup or other improvements before startup. The oil produced as a
result of such treatment is not easily differentiated from the EOR oil.
3. Inaccurate estimate of hypothetical decline. The curve from B to C in Fig. 13 must be accurately estimated. But since it did not occur, there is no way of
assessing this accuracy.
Ways to infer incremental oil recovery from production data range from highly
sophisticated numerical models to graphical procedures. One of the latter, based on
decine curve analysis, is covered in the next section.
Estimating Incremental Oil Recovery Through Decline Curves
Decline curve analysis can be applied to virtually any hydrocarbon production
operation. The following is an abstraction of the practice as it applies to EOR. See
Walsh and Lake (2003) for more discussion. The objective is to derive relations
between oil rate and time, and then between cumulative production and rate.
The oil rate q changes with time t in a manner that defines a decline rate D
according to

1 dq
q dt

1.3-1

The rate has units of (or [=]) amount or volume per time and D [=]1/time. Time is in
units of days, months, or even years consistent with the units of q. D itself can be a
function of rate, but we take it to be constant. Integrating Eq. 1.3-1 gives

qi e

Dt

1.3-2

where qi is the initial rate or q evaluated at t = 0. Equation 1.3-2 suggests a

semilogarithmic relationship between rate and time as illustrated in Fig. 1-3.
Exponential decline is the most common type of analysis employed.

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log (q)

qi
-D
Slope = 2.303
Decline
period
begins
qEL

Life
t

0
Figure 1-3. Schematic of exponential decline on a rate-time plot.

Figure 1-3 schematically illustrates a set of data (points) which begin an

exponential decline at the ninth point where, by definition t = 0. The solid line
represents the fit of the decline curve model to the data points. qi is the rate given by
the model at t=0, not necessarily the measured rate at this point. The slope of the
model is the negative of the decline rate divided by 2.303, since standard semilog
graphs are plots of base 10 rather than natural logarithms.
Because the model is a straight line, it can be extrapolated to some future
rate. If we let qEL designate the economically limiting rate (simply the economic
limit) of the project under consideration, then where the model extrapolation attains
qEL is an estimate of the projects (of wells, etc.) economic life. The economic limit
is a nominal measure of the rate at which the revenues become equal to operating
expenses plus overhead. qEL can vary from a fraction to a few hundred barrels per
day depending on the operating conditions. It is also a function of the prevailing
economics: as oil price increases, qEL decreases, an important factor in reserve
considerations.
The rate-time analysis is useful, but the rate-cumulative curve is more
helpful. The cumulative oil produced is given by
t

Np

qd

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The definition in this equation is general and will be employed throughout the text,
but especially in Chap. 2. To derive a rate -cumulative expression, insert Eq. 1.3-1,
integrate, and identify the resulting terms with (again) Eq. 1.3-1. This gives

qi

DN p

1.3-3

Equation 1.3-3 says that a plot of oil rate versus cumulative production should be a
straight line on linear coordinates. Figure 1-4 illustrates.

qi
Slope = -D

Mobile oil

qEL

Recoverable oil
Np

0
Figure 1-4. Schematic of exponential decline on a rate-cumulative plot.

You should note that the cumulative oil points being plotted on the horizontal axis of
this figure are from the oil rate data, not the decline curve. It this were not so, there
would be no additional information in the rate-cumulative plot. Calculating Np
normally requires a numerical integration with something like the trapezoid rule.
Using model Eqs 1.3-2 and 1.3-3 to interpret a set of data as illustrated in
Figs. 1-3 and 1-4 is the essence of reservoir engineering practice, namely
1. Develop a model as we have done to arrive at Eqs. 1.3-2 and 1.3-3. Often the
model equations are far more complicated than these, but the method is the same
regardless of the model.
2. Fit the model to the data. Remember that the points in Figs. 1-3 and 1-4 are data.
The lines are the model.
3. With the model fit to the data (the model is now calibrated), extrapolate the model
to make predictions.

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At the onset of the decline period, the data again start to follow a straight line
through which can be fit a linear model. In effect, what has occurred with this plot is
that we have replaced time on Fig. 1-3 with cumulative oil produced on Fig. 1-4, but
there is one very important distinction: both axes in Fig. 1-4 are now linear. This has
three important consequences.
1.
2.
3.

The slope of the model is now D since no correction for log scales is
required.
The origin of the model can be shifted in either direction by simple additions.
The rate can now be extrapolated to zero.

Point 2 simply means that we can plot the cumulative oil produced for all
periods prior to the decline curve period (or for previous decline curve periods) on
the same rate-cumulative plot. Point 3 means that we can extrapolate the model to
find the total mobile oil (when the rate is zero) rather than just the recoverable oil
(when the rate is at the economic limit).
Rate-cumulative plots are simple yet informative tools for interpreting EOR
processes because they allow estimates of incremental oil recovery (IOR) by
distinguishing between recoverable and mobile oil. We illustrate how this comes
about through some idealized cases.
Figure 1-5 shows a rate-cumulative plot for a project having an exponential
decline just prior to and immediately after the initiation of an EOR process.

qEL

Project begins

IOR
Incremental
mobile oil

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Np

10

Figure 1-5. Schematic of exponential decline curve behavior on a rate-cumulative

plot. The EOR project produces both incremental oil (IOR), and increases the mobile
oil. The pre- and post-EOR decline rates are the same.
We have replaced the data points with the models only for ease of
presentation. Placing both periods on the same horizontal axis is permissible because
of the scaling arguments mentioned above. In this case, the EOR process did not
accelerate the production because the decline rates in both periods are the same;
however, the process did increase the amount of mobile oil, which in turn caused
some incremental oil production. In this case, the incremental recovery and mobile
oil are the same. Such idealized behavior would be characteristic of thermal,
micellar-polymer, and solvent processes.

IOR
qEL
Np

Project begins

Figure 1-6. Schematic of exponential decline curve behavior on a rate-cumulative

plot. The EOR project produces incremental oil at the indicated economic limit but
does not increase the mobile oil.
Figure 1-6 shows another extreme where production is only accelerated, the
pre- and post-EOR decline rates being different. Now the curves extrapolate to a
common mobile oil but with still a nonzero IOR. We expect correctly that processes
that behave as this will produce less oil than ones that increase mobile oil, but they
can still be profitable, particularly, if the agent used to bring about this result is
inexpensive. Processes that ideally behave in this manner are polymer floods and
polymer gel processes, which do not affect residual oil saturation. Acceleration
processes are especially sensitive to the economic limit; large economic limits imply
large IOR.

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11

Example 1-1. Estimating incremental oil recovery.

Sometimes estimating IOR can be fairly subtle as this example illustrates. Figure 1-7
shows a portion of rate-cumulative data from a field that started EOR about half-way
through the total production shown.
0.20

0.15

Pre EOR
0.10

Post EOR
0.05

qEL
0.00
0.0

1.0

2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cumulative Oil Produced, M std. m3
Figure 1-7. Rate (vertical axis) - cumulative (horizontal axis) plot for a field
undergoing and EOR process.
a. Identify the pre- and post-EOR decline periods.
The pre-EOR decline ends at about 2.5 M std. m3 of oil produced, at which time the
post-EOR period begins. This point does not necessarily coincide with the start of
the EOR process. The start cannot be inferred from the rate-cumulative plot.
b. Calculate the decline rates ([=] mo-1) for both periods.
Both decline periods are fitted by the straight lines indicated. The fitting is done
through standard means; the difficulty is always identifying when the periods start
and end. For the pre-EOR decline,

M std.m3
0.11 0.18
month
2.55 0 M std.m3

0.027 month

and for the post-EOR decline,

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12

M std.m
month
4 2.55 M std.m3

0.09 0.11
D

0.0137 month

The EOR project has about halved the decline rate even though there is no increase in
rate.
c. Estimate the IOR ([=] M std. m3) for this project at the indicated economic limit.
The oil to be recovered by continued operations is 4.7 M std. m3. That from EOR is
(by extrapolation) 7 M std. m3 for an incremental oil recovery of 2.3 M std. m3.

1-4 CATEGORY COMPARISONS

Comparative Performances
Most of this text covers the details of EOR processes. At this point, we compare
performances of the three basic EOR processes and introduce some issues to be
discussed later in the form of screening guides. The performance is represented as
typical oil recoveries (incremental oil expressed as a percent of original oil in place)
and by various utilization factors. Both are based on actual experience. Utilization
factors express the amount of an EOR agent required to produce a barrel of
incremental oil. They are a rough measure of process profitability.
Table 1-1 shows sensitivity to high salinities is common to all chemical
flooding EOR. Total dissolved solids should be less than 100,000 g/m3, and hardness
should be less than 2,000 g/m3. Chemical agents are also susceptible to loss through
rockfluid interactions. Maintaining adequate injectivity is a persistent issue with
chemical methods. Historical oil recoveries have ranged from small to moderately
large. Chemical utilization factors have meaning only when compared to the costs of
the individual agents; polymer, for example, is usually three to four times as
expensive (per unit mass) as surfactants.
TABLE 1-1 CHEMICAL EOR PROCESSES
Process
Polymer
Micellar
polymer

Recovery
mechanism

Issues

Improves volumetric
sweep by mobility
reduction
Same as polymer plus
reduces capillary
forces

Injectivity
Stability
High salinity
Same as polymer
plus chemical
availability,
retention, and
high salinity

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Typical
recovery (%)

Typical agent
utilization*

0.30.5 lb polymer
per bbl oil produced

15

1525 lb surfactant
per bbl oil produced