Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Energy as % of GDP
Infrastructure Availability
HS&E
Infrastructure Capacity
Institutional Capacity
Competition
C
ffrom elsewhere
TECHNICAL AND MANAGEMENT ADVISORS TO THE INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
2
More Tax
Means
Less Inve$tment
Illinois
Low Govt
Gov t Take
Limited E&P Inve$tment by Big Oil
Iraq
Highest Govt
Gov t Take
Huge Inve$tment by Big Oil
A
PSC
B
PSC
C
Concession
30%
50%
60%
Marginal
M
i l Govt
G t Take
T k
(highest)
45%
65%
90%
7yr
5yr
1yr
Investment Credit
0%
0%
20%
60%
100%
100%
0%
5% annum
0%
Ringfenced by Field
Yes
Yes
No
3.
3
New
e resources
esou ces viewed
e ed by so
some
e as Stranded
St a ded
4.
5.
Govt
Producers
Loss
Break
Even
Govt Needs
Minimum Cash Flow
To be
avoided
id d
Downside
Protection
Nice b
Ni
butt nott
why we exist
Small
Moderate
Large
About Right
Greedy &
Outrageous
The Target
Only if I
h
have
more $
& people
than projects
HB110
Upside Case
ACES
210
$Bn
95
110
2011-mid 2020s
2011-late 2020s
Existing
Discovered
New regular
g
investment
2011-2050
HB110
HB110
-20
-20
75
90
2011-mid 2020s
2011-late 2020s
$Bn
210
2011-2050
$Bn
Viewed Conservatively:
y
75% downside outcome
25% upside outcome
-20 * 0.25 = - 5
120 *0.75 = 90
$+85
Economic Impact
Top 1-3
High
Investment Credits
Top
Moderate-High
Top 10
High
Credits to Cash
Top 1 or 2
Moderate, Big,
Huge Ind.
No ringfence
(E l
(Exploration/Appraisal)
ti /A
i l)
Top 10
Huge
Bottom 5-10
Moderate
(Huge Optically)
Bottom
High
Environmental Costs
Bottom 10
High
Data Transparency
Relative to other regimes Alaska is handicapped in
its decision making by the small amount of either
confidential
fid ti l or reliable
li bl public
bli data
d t on energy
operations