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1 author:
Vignesh Sbk
Karvy
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Recommendation (Rs.)
Target Price
Hyderabad & Chennai Parks are expected to be operational by April 2016 &
December 2017 respectively. We expect footfall in Hyderabad park to be in the
range of 0.6-0.8 Mn in first year and in next couple of years, footfalls are likely to
reach 1 mn mark and ticket pricing to be similar to Bangalore park. Footfalls for the
existing parks along with Hyderabad park for the next couple of years is likely to see
CAGR growth of 17% during FY15-17E. Average Ticket Prices (ATP) are likely to
witness 10% annual growth.
264.3
320.0
Upside (%)
21
Stock Information
Mkt Cap (Rs.mn/US$ mn)
14933 / 231
0.1
Sensex/Nifty
0.9
27512 / 8349
O/S Shares(mn)
355 / 240
56.5
10.0
71.0
FIIs
9.1
DIIs
2.0
Others
Key Risks
17.9
Relative to Sensex
3M
6M
12M
1 (12)
(7)
(4)
Source: Bloomberg
Relative Performance*
140
130
120
110
100
90
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
Wonderla
May-15
Aug-15
Sensex
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Net Sales
1378
1536
1818
2085
3043
45.4
45.8
44.3
47.6
44.4
8.0
9.5
9.2
10.1
13.1
28.8
26.2
20.1
EBITDA
626
336
28.0
33.1
703
399
26.6
27.8
805
506
14.2
993
570
14.1
1350
742
16.0
For private circulation only. For important information about Karvys rating system and other disclosures refer
to the end of this material. Karvy Stock Broking Research is also available on Bloomberg, KRVY<GO>,
Thomson Publishers & Reuters
Analyst Contact
Vignesh S B K
vignesh.sbk@karvy.com
Company Background
FY16E
FY17E
Net sales
1818
2085
3043
EBITDA
805
993
1350
1013
Depreciation
162
Interest
17
Other Income
102
Tax
223
PBT
Adj. PAT
1092
203
68
1693
285
41
729
850
1107
506
570
742
281
365
44.3
47.6
44.4
P/E (x)
28.8
26.2
20.1
27.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
18.6
0.5
27.3
15.1
0.5
24.4
11.1
0.7
FY16E
FY17E
Total Assets
3976
4376
4989
Current assets
2098
1452
837
1791
Other assets
87
Total Liabilities
Networth
Current Liabilities
175
4376
4989
110
88
289
Others
123
3978
3976
3564
Debt
2800
12
4031
241
15
4637
319
24
14.2
RoCE (%)
20.3
Net Debt/Equity
0.0
Equity/Total Assets
0.8
P/BV (x)
4.1
14.1
20.8
0.0
0.9
3.7
16.0
23.8
0.0
0.9
3.2
PBT
Depreciation
Interest
Tax
Changes in WC
Others
CF from Operations
Capex
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
729
850
1107
17
162
(281)
(365)
(71)
(43)
(23)
562
959
(1400)
79
50
(2235)
1700
(87)
(120)
Change in Cash
(179)
CF from Financing
647
(70)
(1220)
CF from Investing
Change in Debt
(91)
(371)
(1943)
Change in Equity
285
(252)
Investment
Others
203
1493
1000
(170)
(22)
(110)
(133)
345
943
(455)
(80)
(136)
(216)
288
Others
17.9%
Bangalore
Resort 5.4
Kochi Park
39.2
FIIs
9.1%
Promoters
71.0%
Bangalore
Park 55.4
60
60
40
20
25
2015
2020
India Amusement park industry Size ( In Bn Rs)
Asia
Pacific
26.0%
EMEA
21.0%
Latin
America
1.0%
US
50.0%
Majority of the parks are located in United States and Europe where the
markets are attaining maturity stage. United States has approximately 400
parks with 300 Mn visitors and Europe has 330 parks with 165 Mn annual
visitors. Asia is the fastest growing geography and is expected to become
the largest market for the theme park industry in next 15 years.
6.3%
4%
2%
0%
2.0%
0.6%
US
EMEA
3.1%
Asia*
Global**
Theme parks
2008
223
60
123
138
215
117
58
58
2011
2012
Asia pacific -top 20
135
206
109
132
103
127
2010
EMEA Top 20
58
56
96
123
2009
United States Top 20
196
189
186
0
57
57
121
123
186
2013
2014
Top 25 Theme parks Worldwide
Amusement/Theme Parks
Location
2014
2013
Florida
19.3
18.5
4.0
Disneyland
California
16.7
16.2
3.5
2
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Tokyo Disneyland
Tokyo, Japan
Tokyo, Japan
Universal Studio
Osaka , Japan
Florida
Florida
Florida
Paris,France
California
Florida
Islands of Adventure
Florida
Ocean park
Hongkong
Lotte world
Hongkong
Everland
Nagashima Island
Hangzhou, China
Kuwana, Japan
Hengqin, China
Rust, Germany
Orlando, Florida
Tivoli Gardens
Copenhagen,Denmark
De Efteling
kaatsheuvel,Netherland
Marne-la-valee, France
17.3
14.1
11.8
11.4
10.4
10.3
9.9
8.8
8.3
8.1
7.8
7.6
7.5
7.4
6.8
17.2
14.0
% change attendance
0.5
0.1
10.1
16.8
10.2
2.0
11.2
10.1
2.0
2.0
10.4
(4.7)
7.1
17.0
7.5
4.2
8.5
8.1
7.4
7.4
7.3
3.0
0.0
2.8
1.4
1.1
6.1
11.0
5.8
(3.6)
5.0
4.9
2.0
4.5
4.2
5.8
5.6
5.5
4.7
4.4
4.2
2.3
4.2
-
38.3
5.1
(8.0)
4.1
6.0
4.5
6.6
(4.7)
4.0
Wonderla after commissioning its two new parks in Hyderabad and Chennai, along with its existing parks, footfalls are likely to
breach 4 mn footfalls annually which would push the company to the big league.
Demographic dividend
Exhibit 9: Indian population segmentation based on
Age group
56+
11%
0-14
31%
41-55
14%
31-40
14%
15-30
30%
India has 61% of its population under the age of 30; and 31% below the age
of 14 years, according to Census. Young population are the main drivers of
consumer spending and look out for different modes of entertainment and
child population are the influencing factors for the parents to visit theme
parks & play zones. With majority of the population under the age of 30, we
expect the consumer discretionary spending as % of consumer spending to
increase from 55% in 2007 to 61% 2020. Average age of Indias population
in 2020 is expected to be 29 years which is the lowest in the world. This
demographic factor plays positive role in discretionary spending which is
positive for entertainment industry like amusement parks.
64
55
55
55
61
59
61
63
60
64
65
50
45
China
Russia
Brazil
2007
India
2020
Spending in
Spending in
% CAGR
% Segment Share in
% Segment Share in
$ bn 2010
$ bn 2020
Growth Rate
Spending 2010
Spending 2020
Food
328
895
10.6
33.1
25.0
168
664
14.7
17.0
18.5
186
752
71
296
15.3
49
183
14.1
59
Health
Others
15.0
225
129
18.8
7.2
14.3
570
21.0
8.3
6.0
6.3
4.9
16.0
5.1
13.0
15.9
35
34
132862
25
100000
117752
95361
15
-5
50000
11
5
% contribution to the
State GDP
FY 06-12
8
FY12-25
Hyderabad
Ranga reddy
Telangana State
GDP in 2014
2013-2014
(PPP in Mn$)
(PPP $)
Category
Status
Chennai
Developing
5.20
58625
6469
Bangalore
Developing
4.30
45313
5051
Hyderabad
Developing
Mumbai
4.20
Developing
Delhi
40186
4.60
Developing
5063
150853
4.40
7005
293637
12747
7.0
25
20
15
9.2
10.8
11.3
11.9
12.5
13.1
13.8
11.1
11.8
12.1
11.0
10.9
11.1
11.4
10
5
0
Northern Kerala, TN & others. We expect footfall for the existing parks to grow at CAGR of 4% and reach 25.1 lk in FY17E from
23.4 lk in FY15 for existing parks. Footfalls for the existing parks along with Hyderabad park for the next couple of years is likely
to see CAGR growth of 17% during FY15-17E.
Exhibit 16: Footfall & Growth
7.6
7.5
10.8
6.7
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
No of total visitors in lakh
FY10
25.1
24.2
23.4
22.9
20.3
16.1
16.1
15.3
10
14.4
15.0
20
23.4
50%
22.6
30
30%
10%
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Growth (%)
FY16E FY17E
-10%
Tn & Others
35%
Kochi
9%
Kerala
56%
Source: Company, Karvy Research
South AP,
Northern
Kerala, TN
& Others
20%
City &
Greater
Bangalore
65%
Source: Company, Karvy Research
Festival Holidays
Festival Holidays
Diwali
Nov 11-15
Ramzan
Dec 24-27
Bakrid
Dussehra
Oct 22- 25
New Year
Dec 31-Jan 3
Christmas
July18-21
Onam
Aug 27- 30
Christmas
Dec 24-27
Sep 24-17
New Year
Dec 31-Jan 3
In general, Wonderla parks generally see 3500 footfalls per day and see higher number during weekends & peak season which
is during holidays. Wonderla parks are currently handling at 29% and has a licensed capacity to handle 12000 visitors per day
in existing parks. Footfall mix combined for both the parks is in the ratio of 70:30 with general crowd and corporate group 70%
and remaining from school & college students. Bangalore park has slightly higher general crowd compared to Kochi park and
students are generally given discounts. School & college crowd are mostly influenced by discount offered to them.
Exhibit 21: No. of Calendar Holidays
Years
Karnataka
Kerala
Kerala
Karnataka
2014
22
19
11
2015
24
25
14
10
Weekend Footfall
Weekday Footfall
Bangalore
Kochi
Hyderabad
12000
12000
10000
6000
6000
3500
3000
8000
3500
3000
8000
Wonderla generally adds a ride every two years and they are planning to add an interesting roller coaster ride in Bangalore
which would be Indias first reversing roller coaster and will be open to public by year end. Consistent addition of new rides and
thrilling rides would help to attract footfalls for the parks.
Exhibit 23: Consistent Addition of Rides in Bangalore & Kochi Parks
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
32
34
34
33
39
22
22
22
22
23
54
56
56
55
62
Land Rides
Kochi
Bangalore
32
33
33
35
39
Water Rides
Kochi
Bangalore
20
20
20
20
20
Total Rides
Kochi
Bangalore
52
53
53
55
59
Regular
Fastrack
Regular
Regular
Fastrack
740
980
890
1340
1480
1780
Fastrack
670
1120
560
1000
500
Regular
1440
1500
720
1580
990
790
1440
720
900
1440
580
500
720
1000
1160
1500
1960
2000
1980
1800
Regular
Fastrack
Fast track tickets are available which enables the visitor for privilege entry for the rides & attractions by avoiding long queues.
These tickets are priced at 100% premium to the regular tickets and number of tickets issues is limited to 500 numbers in a day.
Average ticket prices (ATP) have been growing at CAGR of 11% over the last 5 years and has reached Rs.618 in FY15 from
Rs. 383 in FY11. In next couple of years, ticket prices are expected to reach Rs.748 in FY17E which is likely to grow at CAGR of
10% driven by price hike & sale of fast track tickets which are sold at twice the price of regular tickets. Ticket price increase every
year for multi-decade-long period is the global phenomena in theme park industry, indicating enormous price elasticity. Global
theme park player Disney land has been consistently increasing its ticket price annually at the rate of 9% for the last 44 years,
(though wonderla is not comparable to its size).
ATP
Source: Company, Karvy Research
Growth in ATP
20
10%
0%
Price ($)
2020
20%
2015
40
2010
30%
2005
60
2000
40%
1995
80
1990
FY17E
FY16E
FY15
FY14
50%
1985
10
100
1980
15
60%
1975
20
1970
10.0
120
1965
618
11.9
540
11.1
482
434
FY12
360
383
200
FY11
7.5
FY10
400
6.3
14.5
FY13
13.4
600
10.0
680
800
Exhibit 27: Disney Land Average Ticket Prices ($) & Growth (%)
748
Exhibit 26: Wonderla Average Ticket Price (Rs.) & Growth (%)
Growth (%)
Schools & college students form 35% of the total footfall for the parks. In order to attract this segment, discounts up to 35% &
20% are offered to school and college students respectively. The companys increased marketing efforts to schools & colleges
would lead to sustained footfalls from these segments. Special packages for corporate groups and stay at Bangalore resort will
lead to discount of ticket prices of theme park. Privilege member cards are offered where they can get discount on entry tickets
and tie up with Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation (BMTC) Volvo bus service.
3.2
3.3
2.8
80
60%
45.5%
50%
18.8%
100
80.5
79.0
79.5
78.9
96
81.8
50
20
13.3
13.4
15.3
17.1
17.7
17.3
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Non ticket revenues
Ticket revenues
18.3
FY16E FY17E
Resort revenues
81
86.6
5.6%
15.0%
56
86.7
40
48.7%
FY12
FY13
40%
30%
15.0%
20%
10%
37
60
150
127
2.8
100
111
FY14
FY15
SPH
FY16E
FY17E
0%
Growth in SPH
Number of Parks
Annual Visitors
Large Parks
15
<0.5 Mn
Small Parks
100
Medium Parks
Source: Company, Karvy Research
50
Between 0.3-0.5 Mn
Location
Wonderla
Bangalore
Adventure island
Delhi
Ocean Park
Hyderabad
Ticket Prices
In
(Rs.)
Acres
720
83
650
62
1090
Adlabs Imagica
Mumbai
1399
300
Noida
999
44
Worlds of wonder
Chennai
Mysore
Kolkota
350
899
575
520
64
20
27
30
40
City with population close to 8.9 Mn hasnt seen any full fledged theme
parks which are going to be opportunity for Wonderla to capture. Hyderbad
city population is likely to reach 12.7 mn by 2030 and will become mega
city, according to UN. Hyderabad, being one of the metropolitan cities in
India and spending power is higher compared to other Tier-II & III cities.
Hyderabad has very hot climate and during summers temperature would
inch above 40oC. There are just couple of small water parks located in
Hyderabad and apart from that, there is Ramoji film city which is in different
genre.
14
12
12.8
10
8
10.3
8.9
11.2
4
2
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
Rides
Category
Acres
Wonderla
42
720
Large
47
Ocean Park
25
250
Small
Jalavihar
10
Mount Opera
200
20
425
Small
12.5
Small
20
Bangalore
Bangalore park has seen its footfall grow at CAGR of 8% during the last four years consistently which is giving us more confidence
that Hyderabad would also receive similar response going forward. During winters, Wonderla parks would provide hot waters in
the pool as it wouldnt have any impact on footfalls. Despite other forms of entertainment, Bangalore park has proven that it is
niche form of entertainment segment & not comparable with others such as movies, malls & plays. Rides provide the thrill and
enthusiasm among the visitors, mainly kids & youth which induce them to revisit.
Exhibit 34: Theme Parks in Karnataka
City
Rides
Size
Wonderla
60
720
Large
15
575
Bangalore
Bangalore
Fun world
Mysore
Mangalore
Manasa Park
38
15
700
Medium
300
Small
Small
Chennai
Exhibit 35: Chennai Population (Mn) & Growth (%)
15
3.0
10
5
0
11.2
5.8
1991
7.0
12.6
8.6
2001
2011
2021
2025
Chennai metro area population
CAGR Growth (%)
2.0
1.0
0.0
Chennai is one of the top metro cities and has population of 9 Mn and is
4th largest city in India. Chennai will have a population of 13 mn by 2030
and is projected to become megacity, according to UN. Chennai has very
hot humid climate for most part of the year which is the opportunity for
theme parks. However, Chennai has quite a few large theme parks which
are going to be challenging for Wonderla. Most of the theme parks are set
up long time back and rides must be used to the visitors and Wonderla
is likely to offer something new which should be one of the crowd pulling
factors.
10
Rides
Category
Acres
Wonderla*
45
800
Large
50
37
325
Large
Queensland
51
Kishkinta
350
42
Large
550
46
70
Large
899
120
Large
45
80
60
40
50
20
15
Admission fees
Wonderla Parks
25
25
F&B +
Resort & Others
Mercahndising
International Theme Park
rest-o-bar, gym, solar heated swimming pool, recreation area and kids activity centre. Currently, resort contribution to revenues
is around 5 % which is less compared to other resorts globally where they derive 25% from the segment.
Exhibit 38: Hotel Occupancy in International Theme Parks
Name of the park
Hotels owned
Rooms
Occupancy (%)
705
90
2500
85
Disneyland Paris
5800
87
Brand recall & efficient management can scale the company to be one of the leading players in Indian Amusement
park industry
Wonderla is ranked among the top 25 Amusement parks in Asia and best amusement park in India to visit, according to Trip
advisor. Wonderla getting listed in top Asian theme parks to visit induces confidence for the company to expand. With such
reputation in the industry and couple of parks are being opened in next few years and total of 4 parks would be operational by
2018 and Wonderla is planning to enter north India and become pan Indian player.
Exhibit 39: Top 10 Amusement / Water Parks - India
Rank
Rank
Amusement/Theme Park
Location
Amusement/Theme Park
Location
Country
Bangalore
1 Universal Studios
Sentosa Island
Singapore
3 Adlabs, Imagica
Mumbai
Hongkong
China
6 Science City
7 Water Kingdom
8 Adventure Island
9 Funworld
10 GRS Fantasy
Source: Trip Advisor, Karvy Research
Kochi
Hyderabad
Mumbai
Kolkota
Mumbai
Delhi
Rajkot
Mysore
2 Ocean Park
4 Tokyo, Disneyland
5 Tokyo, DisneySea
Hong Kong
Urayasu
Urayasu
Nha Trang
Bangalore
Kochi
Funabashi
China
Japan
Japan
Vietnam
India
China
India
Japan
11
In House
manufactured
38%
Domestically
Sourced
36%
42 rides and attractions for its park and going forward, it plans to expand its in-house team and manufacture more rides by
itself for its upcoming park in Hyderabad and Chennai. Other rides are imported from Italy & US or domestically outsourced.
The company has water harvest systems in place in its existing parks and in Hyderabad park it has got industrial water supply.
Company does RO treatment technology for treating water in pools.
Capex needed to commission Hyderabad & Chennai Parks to be funded by internal accruals:
Hyderabad has been chosen as the next location for the expansion of Wonderla and is expected to be operational by April
2016. Total investment for Hyderabad is Rs. 2500-2600 Mn and is funded by cash raised through IPO during April-May 2014
for an amount of Rs. 1812.5 Mn. For Chennai park, the investment would be Rs. 3000 Mn and is expected to be commissioned
towards 2017. For Chennai parkmajority of the funding is liekly to be done by internal accruals. Management has guided for
1 Mn footfalls in Chennai during the first year of operation as it is bigger market and more number of new rides are expected.
Along with existing parks and Hyderabad park, Chennai park would start generating cash flows going forward which would be
helpful for opening up new theme parks across India and limit the dependence on debt. The company is planning to open one
new theme park every 4 years and has plans to become a pan Indian player in Amusement park Industry.
Exhibit 42: Hyderabad Capex break Up
Hyderabad Capex break Up
Land, Development & Civil construction
Amusement rides
Rs. Mn
994
1067
261
114
24
63
38
12
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E Comments
Revenue
1536
1818
2085
11.4
18.4
14.7
EBITDA
703
805
993
1350
45.8
44.3
47.6
PAT (normalized)
399
506
18.7
(3.2)
9.5
570
9.2
10.1
9.7
Consensus
Divergence (%)
FY16E
2085
2112
(1.2)
FY17E
3043
3052
(0.3)
FY16E
993
986
0.8
FY17E
1350
1356
(0.4)
FY16E
10.1
10.6
(4.7)
FY17E
13.1
13.3
(1.6)
EPS (Rs.)
13
1378
18.4
FY13
FY14
FY15
Revenues (Rs. Mn)
3043
14.7
40
2085
1100
11.4
1536
21.8
1818
2200
60
45.9
20
0
FY17E
Growth (%)
FY16E
Revenues for the period FY11-15 grew at CAGR of 20%, driven mainly
by 13% average ticket price (ATP) growth. During FY15-17E, revenues
are expected to grow from Rs. 1818.4 mn to 3042.8 mn at CAGR of 30%
during FY15-17E, driven by commissioning of Hyderabad park. During
this period, footfall & ATP are likely to witness growth of 17% & 10%
respectively.
1500
FY13
FY14
14.5
805
626
500
12.4
703
13.1
FY15
40
30
993
23.4
1000
35.9
1350
20
10
FY16E
FY17E
Growth (%)
800
27.0
FY13
40
30
570
200
506
13.9
12.5
18.7
399
400
336
600
30.2
742
20
10
FY14
FY15
PAT (Rs. Mn)
FY16E
FY17E
Growth (%)
FY13
FY14
RoE
FY15
FY16E
23.8
16.0
20.8
14.1
14.2
10
20.3
26.6
20
28.0
30
35.0
37.7
40
RoE is likely to improve from the current levels of 14% in FY15 to 16% in
FY17E. RoE has seen a fall in FY15 on the back of fresh issue of shares to
raise money for its Hyderabad park. Before the IPO, RoE for the company
stood at average of 29% from FY12 to FY14. RoCE is expected to improve
from 20.3% in FY15 to 23.8% in FY17E, on the back of decline in debt.
FY17E
RoCE
14
0.8
20
0.8
0.6
19.9
0.6
0.5
12.7
10
14.9
20.2
15
1.0
0.8
13.0
25
0.4
5
0
0.2
FY13
FY14
RoA
FY15
FY16E FY17E
Asset Turnover ratio
0.0
RoA for Wonderla is expected to improve to 15% in FY17E from the current
levels of 12.7% in FY15. With improvement in margins expected, RoA is
expected to improve. Asset turnover ratio is expected to improve on the
back of increase in footfalls in the existing park as well as Hyderabad parks.
Asset turnover ratio is to improve from 0.45x in FY15 to 0.80x in FY 17E.
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.5
1.5
1.5
FY15
DPS
FY16E
0.8
0.6
0.4
2.0
0.2
FY17E
Dividend Yield (%)
0.0
Net Debt/Equity
Corporate Governance
Source: Company, Karvy Research
33
High
2
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
15
CMP *
EV/EBITDA (x)
Mcap
($ Mn)
P/E (x)
P/B(x)
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
18.6
15.1
11.1
28.8
26.2
20.1
4.1
3.7
3.2
7.0
21.7
18.1
16.6
1.2
1.2
1.2
8.4
18.2
15.7
14.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
India
Wonderla
INR
264
231
Asia
Ocean Park
HKD
AUD
JPY
7992
812
9.4
8.3
22693
18.7
17.8
15.7
8090
13.2
12.0
10.4
764
11.5
9.9
36.9
25.6
34.1
22.6
29.5
20.0
4.5
2.5
4.3
2.4
3.8
2.3
Europe
Merlin Entertainment
GBP
399
6323
12.4
11.1
9.9
22.3
19.4
16.8
3.4
3.1
2.7
Walt Disney
USD
111
187352
12.7
11.7
11.0
22.0
19.8
17.8
4.0
3.8
3.6
Six Flag
USD
46
4348
13.4
12.3
11.2
29.7
28.8
24.9
Average
6323
12.4
11.1
9.9
22.3
19.4
16.8
3.4
3.1
2.7
USA
Cedar Fair
Average
USD
54
3050
64917
10.6
12.2
9.9
11.3
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research, *CMP of compaines are denominated in respective countrys currency
9.5
10.5
19.1
23.6
15.9
21.5
14.9
33.1
28.0
21.1
19.2
17.0
14.8
11.9
13.9
12.6
11.1
CMP *
Mcap
($ Mn)
% CAGR (FY15-17E)
EBITDA (%)
RoE (%)
Sales
EBITDA
EPS
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
231
29.4
29.5
21.0
44.3
47.6
44.4
14.2
14.1
16.0
812
14.5
16.0
39.5
39.1
764
23.7
26.2
19.6
20.1
India
Wonderla
INR
264
Asia
Ocean Park
HKD
AUD
JPY
7992
22693
4.8
14.1
9.0
10.6
31.2
8.2
40.6
31.7
33.8
5.0
13.6
5.5
6.4
12.7
13.4
20.7
10.3
11.1
9.8
10.8
16.8
9.6
12.5
8090
14.3
17.1
11.0
30.1
30.3
31.7
6323
9.2
11.2
15.1
32.0
32.5
33.2
15.9
16.7
16.7
16.8
Europe
Merlin Entertainment
Average
GBP
399
USD
USD
6323
9.2
11.2
15.1
32.0
32.5
33.2
15.9
111
187352
6.9
8.0
12.1
30.3
30.9
31.0
18.4
21.7
18.9
46
4348
37.9
39.1
40.5
USA
Walt Disney
Cedar Fair
Six Flag
Average
USD
54
3050
3.5
6.0
15.9
36.2
64917
5.3
7.7
12.3
34.8
5.6
9.2
Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research, *CMP of compaines are denominated in respective countrys currency
8.9
37.6
37.9
35.9
36.5
18.4
21.7
18.9
16
45
5.5
40
5.0
35
4.5
30
4.0
25
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
PE
SD2
Apr-15
Jun-15
Average
-1SD
3.5
Aug-14
Aug-15
SD1
Oct-14
PB
SD2
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Average
-1SD
Jun-15
Aug-15
SD1
Oct-14
Ev/EBITDA
Dec-14
Average
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
SD1
SD2
Aug-15
-1SD
INOX
PVR
Jubliant Foodworks
264
239
824
1781
EV/EBITDA (x)
Mcap
(Rs. Mn)
14933
23078
34359
116832
P/E (x)
EPS (Rs.)
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
18.6
15.1
11.1
28.8
26.2
20.1
9.2
10.1
13.1
10.0
8.2
24.0
3.1
19.3
30.1
15.2
11.0
42.1
32.2
12.6
8.8
22.2
95.0
38.8
91.0
65.9
236.2
38.0
26.6
43.1
2.1
19.2
5.1
7.4
26.7
40.8
Exhibit 56 (b): Comparative Operational Metrics Summary - Indian Consumer Discretionary Stocks
CAGR % (FY15-17E)
RoE (%)
Sales
EBITDA
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Wonderla
29
29
14.2
14.1
16.0
PVR
21
35
3.2
15.9
20.6
INOX
Jubliant Foodworks
Source: Karvy Research
32
28
32
36
2.9
23.3
6.5
28.1
3m
6m
1.2
(12.5)
30.8
21.8
8.5
64.4
33.4
29.8
FY15
1818
FY16E
2085
FY17E
3043
37.9
59.5
10168
12457
15128
16.9
69.1
20745
26240
34209
26.6
13864
17937
21694
Key Risks
yyAccidents in the park.
17
Financials
Exhibit 57: Income Statement
YE Mar (Rs. Mn)
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Revenues
1378
1536
1818
2085
3043
753
833
1013
1092
1693
13.1
12.4
14.5
23.4
35.9
15
24
102
68
Growth (%)
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
Growth (%)
21.8
626
118
11.4
703
132
EBIT
522
595
PBT
500
579
Interest Expenses
Tax
Adjusted PAT
Growth (%)
22
164
336
16
180
399
18.4
805
162
14.7
993
203
45.9
1350
285
41
746
858
1107
729
850
1107
17
223
506
281
570
365
742
13.9
18.7
27.0
12.5
30.2
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
29
200
83
428
716
Inventory
28
33
41
47
69
1943
1455
1394
Gross Block
Net Block
CWIP
Miscellaneous
Total Assets
Other Liabilities
74
55
1558
1587
57
201
1440
27
55
74
111
162
1555
2614
3810
398
390
452
39
943
2410
41
1660
2002
3976
4376
186
203
110
88
222
52
248
52
281
20
225
32
3526
56
4989
303
41
Total Liabilities
460
503
412
345
352
779
1079
2999
3466
4072
Shareholders Equity
Total Networth
420
1199
1660
420
1499
2002
565
3564
3976
565
4031
4376
565
4637
4989
18
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
PBT
500
579
729
850
1107
Depreciation
Interest
Tax Paid
Inc/dec in Net WC
Other Income
118
22
132
16
162
17
203
285
(151)
(198)
(252)
(281)
(365)
(3)
(11)
(79)
(49)
(2)
(2)
1
486
(17)
1
502
(374)
(275)
16
(23)
8
562
(91)
6
647
(70)
959
(371)
(1220)
(1400)
79
50
(1943)
(371)
(259)
(2235)
(170)
(455)
1700
(27)
(21)
(15)
29
(73)
(74)
(111)
(71)
(22)
4
172
(87)
1000
(22)
943
(80)
(99)
(103)
(136)
1493
(133)
(216)
(179)
(8)
345
288
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
45.4
45.8
44.3
47.6
44.4
24.4
26.0
27.8
27.3
24.4
RoCE (%)
37.9
0.0
0.1
38.8
0.0
0.0
41.0
0.2
41.1
0.2
36.4
0.2
0.0
(0.1)
(0.2)
20.3
20.8
23.8
28.0
26.6
14.2
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
8.0
9.5
9.2
10.1
13.1
28.6
35.7
64.7
71.3
82.1
37.7
35.0
14.1
16.0
DPS (Rs.)
BV (Rs.)
PE (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Sales (x)
0.0
33.1
9.3
24.0
10.9
0.0
27.8
7.4
21.3
9.8
1.5
28.8
4.1
18.6
8.2
1.5
26.2
3.7
15.1
7.2
2.0
20.1
3.2
11.1
4.9
19
Sell
Hold
Absolute Returns
> 15%
5-15%
<5%
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20