PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

23 June 2010

Malaysia Corporate Highlights

RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

Com pany Upda te

23 June 2010
MARKET DATELINE

Kencana Petroleum Share Price

Fair Value
:
:
RM1.47
RM1.52
Follow Up Recom : Market Perform
(Maintained)

Table 1 : Investment Statistics (KENP; Code: 5122) Bloomberg: KEPB MK

Net EPS Net
FYE Revenue Profit EPS Growth PER C.EPS* P/NTA P/CF ROE Gearing GDY
July (RMm) (RMm) (sen) (%) (x) (sen) (x) (x) (%) (x) (%)
2009 1,140.8 118.2 7.1 (24.3) 20.6 13.3 4.7 13.9 21.4 Net cash 0.3
2010f 1,458.8 169.0 10.2 42.9 14.4 9.0 2.9 10.7 19.1 Net cash 0.5
2011f 1,632.6 194.4 11.7 15.0 12.5 12.0 2.3 9.5 17.4 Net cash 0.6
2012f 1,750.0 214.3 12.9 10.2 11.4 13.0 1.8 8.6 15.5 Net cash 0.6
Main Market Listing / Non-Trustee Stock * Consensus Based On IBES Estimates

♦ Follow up. We spoke with Kencana’s management yesterday. The Issued Capital (m shares) 1,657.5
tender-assist drilling rig owned by MKR1 (and currently being built by Market Cap(RMm) 2,436.5
Kencana) will be delivered to Petronas Carigali by mid-Aug, and should Daily Trading Vol (m shs) 3.9
52wk Price Range (RM) 1.015-1.75
commence operations in mid-Sep. The rig is in fact physically completed
Major Shareholders: (%)
and only awaiting final testing. Kencana has already recruited the rig’s
Khasera Baru 39.2
onshore manager and will go on to recruit the crew. Manpower and other Management 7.6
operating costs are already covered under the 5-year US$235m service EPF 7.5
contract awarded by Petronas Carigali. The charter will still earn a pre-tax
profit margin of 30-35% p.a. which is higher than our estimate yesterday FYE Jul FY10 FY11 FY12
of 20-30% EBIT margin based on SapuraCrest’s drilling division earnings. EPS chg (%) - - -
Var to Cons (%) 13.3 (2.3) (0.6)
According to management, Kencana’s profit margin may be higher due to
differences in engineering specifications, as well as the financing
PE Band Chart
structure.

♦ No more delays. We note that the drilling rig has been delayed since the PER = 20x
PER = 15x
original Oct 2009 completion date following delays in Petronas Carigali’s PER = 10x

drilling programme and changes to the rig design. However, no more

delays are expected at this time.

♦ No visibility on the second rig. While there has been some expectation
on the second drilling rig contract (with clients other than Singapore-
listed Mermaid Maritime), we note that this is now unlikely to happen for Relative Performance To FBM KLCI
another 1-2 years as the regional market for drilling rigs is saturated. This
is negative for Kencana’s plans to move up the value chain and fabricate
technically more-complex and thus higher-margin structures. Kencana Petroleum

♦ SOGT – a renewed catalyst? We highlight that Kencana is one of the

shortlisted bidders for the long-delayed Sabah Oil & Gas Terminal
construction contract which has reopened for tender. There are eight FBM KLCI
other shortlisted candidates including Dialog. The contract is expected to
be awarded in Sep or Oct and will be for a period of two years.

♦ Risks. 1) Contracts in overseas markets that have higher execution risk;

2) Rising steel cost and other cost overruns; 3) Strengthening of RM
against US$; and 4) Delay in contracts if crude oil price pull back.

♦ Maintain forecasts. No change to our forecasts for now.

♦ Valuations. In our view, Kencana’s shift towards more recurrent

earnings is positive and reduces the risks that come with fabrication jobs.
Nevertheless, we are wary about the medium-term visibility of contract Yap Huey Chiang
flows for the industry. We thus reiterate our Market Perform call on the (603) 92802171
stock with an unchanged fair value of RM1.52 (based on 13x FY11 PER). yap.huey.chiang@rhb.com.my

Please read important disclosures at the end of this report.

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 23 June 2010

Table 3. Earnings Forecasts Table 4. Forecast Assumptions

FYE July (RMm) FY09 FY10F FY11F FY12F FYE July FY10F FY11F FY12F
Fabrication 962.8 1,311.4 1,482.6 1,600.0 Key Drivers
EPCC 178.0 147.4 150.0 150.0 New orderbook (RMm) 900.0 1,224.0 1,600.0
Others - - - - Yard utilisation rate (%) 76.7 85.9 92.0
Revenue 1,140.8 1,458.8 1,632.6 1,750.0

EBIT 159.0 209.3 235.5 257.9

EBIT margin (%) 13.9 14.3 14.4 14.7 Source: Company data, RHBRI estimates
Interest expense (10.4) (10.1) (9.5) (9.8)
Associates 0.1 8.3 10.3 10.8
Pre-tax profit 152.8 219.5 252.4 278.3
Tax (34.5) (50.5) (58.1) (64.0)
Eff. tax rate (%) 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0
Minorities - - - -
Net profit 118.2 169.0 194.4 214.3
Source: Company data, RHBRI estimates

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
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The recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows : -

Stock Ratings

Outperform = The stock return is expected to exceed the FBM KLCI benchmark by greater than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.

Trading Buy = Short-term positive development on the stock that could lead to a re-rating in the share price and translate into an absolute return of 15% or more
over a period of three months, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant an Outperform call. It is generally for investors who are willing to take on
higher risks.

Market Perform = The stock return is expected to be in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark (+/- five percentage points) over the next 6-12 months.

Underperform = The stock return is expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark by more than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.

Industry/Sector Ratings

Overweight = Industry expected to outperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

Neutral = Industry expected to perform in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

Underweight = Industry expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

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