Current Wolrd Fertilizers Trends and Outlook

Current world fertilizer
trends and outlook

to 2010/11

trends and outlook to
2010/11
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

Rome, 2007
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FAO 2007
iii
Contents
The world fertilizer outlook
Demand
Nitrogen
Phosphate
Potash
Supply
Nitrogen
Phosphate
Potash
Supply and demand balances

Nitrogen
Phosphate
Potash
The regional fertilizer situation
1
3
3
4
5
6
6
7
7
8
9
9
10
11
Africa
11
America
12
North America
Latin America
Asia
West Asia and North East Africa
South Asia
East Asia
Europe
Central Europe
Western Europe
12
12
13
13
13
13
15
16
16
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
17
Oceania
17
iv
Annexes
1. Explanatory note on supply and demand balances
19
2. World and regional potential nitrogen supply

and demand balances (thousand tonnes)
21
3. World and regional potential phosphate supply

25
4. World and regional potential potash supply

29
5. Regional country classification
33
List of tables
1. World Fertilizer Consumption

2006/2007-2010/2011
2. World fertilizer supply and demand

2006/2007-2010/2011
3. World nitrogen supply and demand balance

2006/2007-2010/2011
4. World phosphate supply and demand balance

2006/2007-2010/2011
5. World potash supply and demand balance

2006/2007-2010/2011
6. Africa fertilizer forecast

2006/2007-2010/2011
11
7. America fertilizer forecast

2006/2007-2010/2011
12
8. Asia fertilizer forecast

2006/2007-2010/2011
15
9. Europe fertilizer forecast

2006/2007-2010/2011
16
10. Oceania fertilizer forecast

2006/2007-2010/2011
17
vi
List of figures
1. Regional and subregional share in world total nitrogen
comsuption 2007-2011
2. Regional and subregional share in world total phosphate

3. Regional and subregional share in world total potash

vii

trends and outlook
to 2010/11
This report presents world nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizer

medium term supply and demand projections for the period
2006/072010/11. The FAO/Fertilizer Organizations Working Group
made the forecasts in October 2006. The balances in Annexes2-4
present a medium-term indication for possible changes in fertilizer
nutrient demand and supply by region and subregion. Changes in
installed supply capacity, operating rates and demand vary annually.
Annex1 provides explanatory notes on supply and demand balances.
FAO, in collaboration with experts from the Working Group dealing
with fertilizer production and trade, provides five-year forecasts of
world and regional fertilizer supply and demand balances.
All fertilizer references are in terms of plant nutrients: nitrogen
(N), phosphate (P2O5) and potash (K2O). The fertilizer demand data
refer to the calendar year. For countries that report their fertilizer
statistics on a fertilizer year basis, data appear under the fertilizer year
that begins in the same calendar year. The contributions made by the
fertilizer industry associations, and their representatives are gratefully
acknowledged.
ix
Summary
This report provides an overview of the information on the world

fertilizer situation in 2006/07 and a forecast up till 2010/11.
At global level there is ample supply of all three major fertilizer
nutrients. Africa will remain a major phosphate fertilizer exporter and
increase nitrogen fertilizer exports. The North America region has
decreased its nitrogen fertilizer supply capacity significantly, but will
remain a primary fertilizer nutrient supplier for phosphate and potash.
The Asia region may soon reach a positive balance for nitrogen; the
region will continue to rely on imports for phosphate and potash.
Europe remains a nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer deficit- and potash
fertilizer surplus region. East Europe and Central Asia will continue
to be the major nitrogen and potash exporting region in the world. In
Oceania the deficits of all three nutrients are expected to persist.
The review discusses the world fertilizer situation in relation to
crop production. Fertilizer demand and supply and their balances are
presented at global level for each of the three nutrients.
Region
N,P,K
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Nutrient balance per region (000 tonnes)
Africa
274
933
974
1.612
2.946
P2O5
5.060
5.196
5.418
6.012
6.510
K2O
(472)
(495)
(507)
(524)
(541)
America
-4.558
-5.552
-5.454
-5.788
-3.075
P2O5
932
766
756
568
379
K2O
4.931
4.819
4.702
4.664
5.758
Asia
-339
857
4.624
6.933
10.954
P2O5
-4.403
-4.459
-4.386
-4.688
-4.066
K2O
-8.100
-8.264
-8.517
-8.648
-8.621
Europe
-566
-720
-741
-797
-866
P2O5
-1.745
-1.778
-1.812
-1.815
-1.845
K2O
1.163
1.173
1.173
1.177
1.183
EECA1
13.752
14.554
15.163
15.544
16.285
P2O5
2.321
2.288
2.293
2.259
1.999
K2O
9.798
10.097
10.179
10.968
11.584
-913
-883
-877
-890
-915
P2O5
-353
-349
-318
-320
-323
K2O
-395
-404
-409
-413
-416
Oceania
7.651
9.188
13.688
16.614
25.329
P2O5
1.812
1.663
1.953
2.017
2.654
K2O
6.925
6.926
6.620
7.225
8.947
World
1. East Europe and Central Asia
In October 2006, the FAO/Fertilizer Organizations Working Group

reviewed the prospects for fertilizer demand until 2010/11 and the supply
and demand balances. The underlying considerations were:
The preliminary outcome of continued long-term fertilizer demand
projections in relation to agricultural production perspectives. World
agriculture (aggregate value of production) has been growing at
rates of 2.1-2.3percent in the last four decades, with much of the
growth originating in the developing countries (3.4-3.8percent).
The high growth rates of the latter reflected, among other things,
developments in some large countries foremost among them is
China. Despite the drastic fall in the population growth rates, the
absolute annual increments continue to be large. Seventy nine million
persons are being added to world population every year beginning
from the second half of 1990s and this will remain at over 50 million
until the mid-2030s. Within the developing countries themselves,
there will be increasing population difference. By 2050, 18 million
of the 26 million added annually to the world population will come
from Sub-Saharan African.
Food production and fertilizer application are inextricably linked.
With global population rising and many countries enjoying a longawaited economic growth, the demand for higher-quality, nutrientrich food is increasing. This long-term trend supports the continuing
appetite for potash, nitrogen and phosphate to protect and restore
the fertility of the worlds agricultural land.
FAOs forecast for world cereal production in 2006 now stands at
1.6percent less than the 2005 output. The shortfall in production
compared to the expected utilization in 2006/2007 has grown, and
a larger drawdown in global cereal stocks is now forecast. World
cereal utilization in 2006/2007 is likely to increase with 1.3percent
from the previous seasons peak. This expansion is associated not
Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2010/11
only with a modest rise in food consumption and a strong growth in

industrial use, driven mainly by higher usage of maize for producing
ethanol, and a recovery in animal feed usage. The anticipated declines
in wheat and coarse grains stocks are expected to occur mostly in the
EU and United States as a result of the decline in their production
together with strong domestic demand and exports.
The maize crop is forecast to fall by (5percent) to 268 million tonnes
in the United States, as producers are expected to shift land to less
input-intensive crops (such as soybeans) due to high fertilizer and
fuel costs. In Argentina the planted area also decreased by 10percent
in response to low prices, higher production costs and higher export
taxes, while prolonged dry weather have reduced yields. In contrast,
a larger maize crop production is expected this year in Brazil, where
the area planted to the main season crop increased by 11percent in
response to more attractive prices for maize compared with soybeans
as well as technical need for crop rotation.
Industrial use of coarse grains continued to expand rapidly in
2005/06. Apart from a strong demand for starches and sweeteners,
the main driving factor has become the exponential growth in maizebased ethanol production, fuelled by rapid increases in world energy
and petrol prices. Much of the impact of accelerated investments
in ethanol plants across several countries around the world is yet
to be felt. In the United States, the worlds leading maize-based
ethanol producer, the amount of maize used as the main feedstock
for ethanol production is estimated to have touched a new record of
over 40 million tonnes in 2005/06.
The oil crops sector has been one of the most dynamic parts of world
agriculture in recent decades. The projected growth in demand, and
the still considerable potential for expansion of production in some
of the major exporters, suggests that past trade patterns will continue
for some time, that is, rapidly growing imports in most developing
countries and export growth of the main exporters. Global oilseed
production in 2006/07 is currently forecast to increase by less than
onepercent, a considerable slowdown in production growth. Soybean
production is anticipated to expand by 2-3percent, reaching a new
record. In the United States, the worlds main soybean producer, a
record soybean crop has been harvested, thanks to a rise in both area
and yield.
Demand
Annexes2, 3 and 4 present forecasts on regional and global fertilizer
demand for the three major plant nutrients until 2010/11. World fertilizer
consumption is to increase at a growth annual rate of about 2percent from
2006/2007 to 2010/2011, equivalent to an increment of 12.650 thousand
tonnes. About 58percent of this growth will take place in Asia and
24percent in America.
Nitrogen
The forecast is for world nitrogen fertilizer demand to increase at an
annual rate of about 1percent until 2010/2011, which is an overall increase
of 6.1 million tonnes.
The United States is the worlds largest nitrogen importer and purchased
8million of ammonia from other countries in 2005, 12percent increase
over the previous year. More than half of that came from Trinidad, where
gas costs are lower and producers have easy access to the US Gulf.
TABLE 1
World Fertilizer Consumption, 2006/2007-2010/2011

Growth annual rate
N
World
1%
2%
2%
Africa
3%
4%
3%
America
1%
1%
2%
North America
1%
1%
1%
Latin America
2%
2%
4%
Asia
1%
2%
3%
West Asia
1%
1%
1%
South Asia
2%
3%
3%
East Asia
1%
2%
3%
Europe
1%
1%
0%
Central Europe
2%
1%
1%
West Europe
0%
-1%
0%
4%
6%
2%
1%
1%
1%
East Europe & Central

Asia
Oceania
Figure 1
Regional and subregional share in world total nitrogen comsuption 2007-2011
East Europe and

Central Asia 3%
Oceania 2%
Africa 4%
West Europe 10%
North America 16%
Central
Europe 2%
Latin America 6%
West Asia 4%
East Asia 36%

South Asia 21%
High natural gas prices in the US have resulted in North American

producers curtailing production. Latin American producers have filled a
significant portion of the demand growth, as rising transportation costs
and internal demand slowed exports from the former Soviet Union and
Middle East countries.
Phosphate
The expected annual growth rate in world demand for phosphate fertilizers
is about 3percent until 2010/2011 with an increment of 3.6million
tonnes, compared to the demand in 2006/2007. About 62percent of this
growth will take place in Asia and 24percent in America. The United
States remains the worlds leading consumer, producer and supplier of
phosphate fertilizer; however, its share of the world market has been
shrinking. Consumption is expected to remain above 4 million tones per
year. Since 2000, increased exports of MAP, primarily to South America,
compensated for lower DAP exports to Asian markets in Asia. Phosphate
Figure 2
Regional and subregional share in world total phosphate comsuption 2007-2011
East Europe and

Central Asia 2%
West Europe 7%
Oceania 4%
Africa 3%
North America 13%

Latin America 12%
Central
Europe 2%
East Asia 39%
West Asia 4%
South Asia 19%
fertilizer production increasingly is being located in the large consuming

regions of Asia and South America, reducing the need for imported
fertilizers to these regions. U.S. exports of phosphate fertilizer to China
and India, the two largest consumers of phosphate fertilizers, have
dropped significantly.
Potash
World demand forecast for potash fertilizers is to increase at an annual
average rate of about 2 percent, equivalent to an increment of 2.6million
tonnes. Growth in Chinas potash fertilizer consumption has risen alongside
the increase in its per capita GDP. Both trends are expected to continue.
Industry experts suggest Chinas potash consumption will have a compound
annual growth rate of 7percent in the years ahead. India continued a strong
pattern of economic growth and increased potash imports in response to
increase demand. Sugar cane production in Brazil has also witnessed fast
growth, driven by the use of sugar in ethanol production.
Figure 3
Regional and subregional share in world total potash comsuption 2007-2011
East Europe and

Central Asia 3%
Oceania 2%
Africa 3%
West Europe 11%
North America 20%
Central
Europe 3%
Latin America 16%
East Asia 37%

West Asia 2%
South Asia 3%
Supply
Nitrogen
World nitrogen supply capacity is forecast to rise by 27.3million tonnes
by 2010/2011 compared to 2006/2007. According to IFAs global annual
survey conducted in late 2006, world ammonia production in 2006 was
estimated at 149.6 Mt, representing an increase of 3percent over 2005.
Major increases in ammonia production occurred in m ost regions, with
the exception of West Europe and North America. The most significant
increases occurred in China, West Asia and Oceania. North America
registered a significant 6percent decline, with most of the reduction
occurring in the United States, notably during the first quarter of 2006.
Production in West Asia rose by 10percent as a result of increasing output
in Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Natural gas prices have a significant impact on ammonia production.
When North American gas prices go up, producers are forced to examine
their production decisions. Access to low-cost gas and a modern plant that
can convert gas efficiently are key factors in determining competitiveness.

When North American gas prices are high and US production is curtailed,
ammonia prices rise. That has recently created an environment of higher
ammonia prices, which benefits producers with lower-cost gas and easy
shipping to the US.
Regions with low-cost natural gas are expected to produce more
nitrogen products in the years ahead, while areas facing higher gas pricesincluding North America and Europe are likely to further curtail
ammonia production.
Phosphate
World phosphate fertilizer supply capacity is expected to increase by
5.3million tonnes by 2010/2011. Phosphoric acid production in United
States increased slightly. World phosphate rock production decreased by
2percent to 167.8 Mt in 2006. While phosphate is produced in more than
40countries, 15 nations supplied 98percent of the worlds phosphate
in 2005. Phosphate rock production rose 1.5percent to 168 million
tonnes in 2005. The largest producer was China, followed by the US,
Morocco and Former Soviet Union countries. The lack of growth in the
world phosphate production in 2006 came from a steep reduction in the
production of phosphate rock in the United States and in most of the
exporting countries. Production in EECA and Europe decreased by more
than 1million Mt, or 8percent over 2005. Production in North Africa
and West Asia decreased also by 1 Mt. Higher production was reported
in Algeria and Togo in response to export demand. In major consuming
countries, the production of phosphate rock improved in both Brazil and
India, while declining in Australia, due to a severe reduction of fertilizer
application during 2006.
Potash
The supply capacity forecast of potash is to increase by 5.2million tonnes
K2O during the period 2006/2007 to 2010/2011; this amounts to an annual
growth rate of 3percent per annum.
Global potash production is estimated at the equivalent of 49.6Mt,
representing a decrease of 9percent over the 2005. The worlds average
operating rate in 2006 declined to 76percent, compared with 85percent
TABLE 2
World fertilizer supply and demand, 2006/2007-2010/2011

2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
(thousand tonnes)
Total supply
198 992
205 076
213 305
220 975
236 842
Total demand
191 650
196 406
200 211
204 121
208 596
16 387
17 778
22 261
25 856
36 929
Surplus (deficit)
Difference between supply potential and consumption; negative signs denotes deficit situation.
in 2005. The worlds major potash producers are Canada, Russia, Belarus,
and Germany, which accounted for about 75percent of world production.
World production of potash dropped 16percent in the in the first half of
2006, but recovered during the second the second half of 2006.
Supply and demand balances
Tables 3, 4, and 5 show the fertilizer supply and demand balances
expressed in thousand tonnes fertilizer nutrient. The forecast for total
world fertilizer supply is to increase by 4percent between 2006/2007 and
2010/2011. The expectation for world fertilizer demand is to increase by
1percent during the same period.
TABLE 3
World nitrogen supply and demand balance, 2006/2007-2010/2011

2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
( N thousand tonnes)
Total supply
126 322
130 500
136 907
142 097
153 639
Total demand
118 671
121 312
123 219
125 483
128 310
7 651
9 188
13 688
16 614
25 329
Surplus (deficit)
TABLE 4
World phosphate supply and demand balance, 2006/2007-2010/2011

2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
P205 (thousand tonnes)
Total supply
35 426
36 538
37 784
38 909
40 690
Total demand
42 660
43 982
44 999
45 894
46 719
1 812
1 663
1 953
2 017
2 654
Surplus (deficit)
TABLE 5
World potash supply and demand balance, 2006/2007-2010/2011

2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
K (thousand tonnes)
Total supply
37 244
38 038
38 614
39 969
42 513
Total demand
30 319
31 112
31 994
32 744
33 566
6 925
6 926
6 620
7 225
8 947
Surplus (deficit)
Nitrogen
The Nitrogen supply/demand conditions in 2006 were tighter than
expected, driven by sustained nitrogen fertilizer consumption in Asia and
a recovery of demand in Brazil. Nitrogen fertilizer application slowed
down in North America, Western Europe and Oceania. Urea took a
larger share of fertilizer usage in 2006, as a result of additional capacity
and competitive prices. In 2006, world ammonia capacity was estimated
at 166.1 Mt NH3, expanding by 3.8 Mt over 2005. The main addition to
capacity occurred in China, West Asia and Oceania.
Phosphate
The global supply of phosphoric acid is estimated at 35.4 Mt in 2006
and 36.5 Mt in 2007, assuming a maximal production operating rate
of 83percent; this represents a growth of 1.4percent. The global P2O5
fertilizer demand is estimated at 37.8 Mt in 2006, a recovery of 3.3percent
over 2005. The global fertilizer demand in 2007 is forecast at 39.4 Mt,
equivalent to a 4.2percent growth over 2006. This increase is almost
entirely based on phosphoric acid-based products, including NPKs. The
global demand of phosphoric acid is estimated at 29.4 Mt in 2006 and 30.0
Mt in 2007, or a 4.7percent increase over 2006. The global supply/demand
balance of phosphoric acid shows a marginal deficit of 1.6 Mt in 2007,
compared with 1.8 Mt in 2005. However, over the past two years, the
world operating rate averaged 77percent of capacity; thus, the supply/
demand situation will remain fairly balanced.
10
Potash
The potash global capacity will grow by 3percent , while the demand is
forecast to grow at 2percent. Global potash capacity rose by 1.4percent,
from 35.7Mt in 2005 to 37.2Mt in 2006. Most of this increase occurred
in Canada and China. In 2007, global capacity will continue to grow by
another 0.7 Mt to 38.0 Mt; new capacity is expected in Canada and China.
Between 2005 and 2007, new capacity developments will add a net 2.0 Mt
MOP of capacity. World potash supply will reach 38.0 Mt in 2007, compared
with 37.2 Mt in 2006. Global consumption of potassium fertilizers was
26.2 Mt in 2006, a growth of 3.4percent over 2005. Fertilizer potash
demand in 2007 is estimated at 22.6 Mt, a 0.6percent increase over 2006.
11
The regional fertilizer situation
Africa
Africa accounts for only 3 percent of world fertilizer consumption in
2006/2007. Nitrogen consumption is forecast to grow at 3percent and
phosphate and potash will grow by 4 percent and 3percent respectively.
Although Africa comprises 58 countries, fertilizer consumption continues
to be mainly restricted to 10 countries and nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer
production capacity exists in only 11 and 6 countries respectively. The
main consumers in the region are Egypt, South Africa and Morocco. The
fertilizer nutrient supply demand balance to 2010/2011 ( Table 6 )indicates
that the region will remain a major exporter of phosphate fertilizer, while
it will continue to import potash. Although Nigeria has large oil and
gas reserves and Africa is home to the largest phosphate rock reserves in
the world, SSA imports over 90percent of the fertilizer it uses. Africa is
completely reliant on imports for potash fertilizer, and the continents
nutrient production is largely dominated by nitrogen fertilizer ( 4percent
of the world supply).
TABLE 6
Africa fertilizer forecast 2006/2007-2010/2011

2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
(thousand tonnes)
N supply
3 796
4 615
4 746
5 505
6 952
Total demand
2 418
2 558
2 638
2 747
2 848
274
933
974
1612
2946
6 436
6 661
6 910
7 526
8 046
Surplus (deficit)
P supply
Total demand
887
950
972
995
1 017
5 060
5 196
5 418
6 012
6 510
Total demand
472
495
507
524
541
Surplus (deficit)
(472)
(495)
(507)
(524)
(541)
Surplus (deficit)
K supply
12
America
North America
Fertilizer consumption in North America is forecast to grow by 1percent
between 2006/2007 and 2010/2011, and represents 15 percent of global
fertilizer nutrient consumption. Nitrogen, phosphate and potash
consumption levels are to increase by 1percent respectively.
Latin America
Total fertilizer consumption in Latin America is forecast to increase with
3percent/year from 2006/2007 to 2010/2011, approximately 1.8 million
tonnes. Brazil is one of the fastest growing fertilizer markets in the
world with growth of approximately 6percent p.a. In Brazil, fertilizer
consumption and grain production have increased by almost 60percent
over the past decade, while crop acreage has increased by only 25percent.
Upward pressure on wheat, corn and soybean prices improves fertilizer
demand prospects for 2007. Fertilizer consumption is forecast to reach 30
million tonnes by 2014 from approximately 20 million tones today. Brazil
is set to increase its nitrogen fertilizer consumption in the coming years
as the country prepares to reduce its dependency on soybeans and expand
production of corn, sugarcane and citrus to keep pace with the shift in
global demand.
TABLE 7
America fertilizer forecast 2006/2007-2010/2011

2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
(thousand tonnes)
N supply
19 322
18 951
19 221
19 260
22 431
N demand
11 086
11 327
11 543
11 570
11 720
Surplus (deficit)
-4 558
-5 552
-5 454
-5 788
-3 075
P supply
11 224
11 319
11 515
11 533
11 556
8 168
8 337
8 543
8 749
8 962
932
766
756
568
379
15 511
15 692
15 786
15 986
17 415
K demand
7 456
7 740
7 949
8 178
8 385
Surplus (deficit)
4 931
4 819
4 702
4 664
5 758
P demand
Surplus (deficit)
K supply
13
Asia
West Asia and North East Africa
Total fertilizer consumption is forecast to increase with 1percent/year
from 2006/2007 to 2010/2011. The expected annual average increases in
fertilizer consumption in the subregion in the next five years are: 4percent
for nitrogen, 4percent for phosphate and 2percent for potash. Table 8
shows the supply and demand balances for the subregion indicating the
subregions medium-term export potential for nitrogen and potash. The
subregion is self-sufficient in phosphate.
South Asia
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh remain the main fertilizer consuming
countries in South Asia. The subregion is facing considerable population
growth and limited reserves of good agricultural land. The forecast shows
an average annual growth of 3percent.
The overall consumption of fertilizer nutrients displayed a robust
growth of 12.4percent during 2005-06 over 2004-05. The all India
consumption of total nutrients reached an all time high of 20.67 million
tonnes in 2005-06. The consumption of N at 12.92 million tonnes, P2O5
at 5.26million tonnes and K2O at 2.50million tonnes in 2005-06 recorded
a growth of 10.3percent, 13.7percent and 21.3percent, respectively, over
2004-05. There was heavy import of Urea, DAP and MOP due to surge
in demand and inadequate domestic production. Total import of Urea was
2.06million tonnes, while 2.44 million tonnes of DAP and 4.58 million
tonnes of MOP .
Phosphate fertilizer consumption in Pakistan is expected to significantly
increase during 2006-2007. Government decided to allocate earlier
envisaged subsidies for N-fertilizer imports for P fertilizer on the
premise that increased domestic N-fertilizer production would meet
increment demand rather than increased N-fertilizer imports.
East Asia
Fertilizer consumption in the subregion is to increase with 1percent from
2006/2007 to 2010/2011. China is the largest fertilizer consuming country
14
in the subregion. Its rapid economic growth and gradual transition towards
a market economy have brought significant changes in production and
consumption patterns and in agricultural trade.
Beside the traditional number one USA, in less than 2 decades China
emerged as a major player in the world Phosphate Industry.
The actual consumption of nitrogenous fertilizer will be basically
equal to reasonable consumption, and the supply of phosphate fertilizer
and potash fertilizer will be short. The supply of nitrogenous fertilizer
in North China, East China and Central China has exceeded demand,
and that in other areas is short, especially Northwest China, while that
in Southwest China is not so short; the supply of phosphate fertilizer
in Central China exceeded demand slightly, and that in North China,
Northwest China and Northeast China is in serious shortage; there is a
shortage in the supply of potash fertilizer all over the country, especially
North China, followed by Central China, East China, South China,
Southwest China, Northwest China and Northeast China.
Fertilizer consumption reached 4.85billiontonnes in 2004, an increase
of 9.94percent year-on-year. The preferential policies on agriculture
will continue to promote farmers enthusiasm for planting, and improve
farmers capacity for dealing with price increases of fertilizer. It was
predicted that in 2005 and 2006, the fertilizer consumption respectively
would reached 5.15 billiontonnes and 5.6 billiontonnes, an increase of
6.19percent and 8.74percent.
In 2006 the production and sales rate of fertilizer declined compared
with 2005.
The production and sales rate of fertilizer reached about 98percent
in 2005. Fertilizer manufacturers focused on expanding their production
capacity in 2006, but after the production and sales rate declined in 2005,
the production capacity of these enterprises were excessive, and the
utilization rate of production capacity decreased significantly. Therefore,
the production and sales rate of the fertilizer industry is expected to
increase in 2006, reaching about 98.5percent.
Although China is a major fertilizer producer, it is still the largest
fertilizer consumer in the world. In addition, because the structure of
fertilizer production is unreasonable, with excessive output of nitrogenous
fertilizer and a shortage of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer, the
15
TABLE 8
Asia fertilizer forecast 2006/2007-2010/2011

2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
(thousand tonnes)
N supply
68 466
71 058
76 278
80 109
86 077
Total demand
41 283
41 886
42 394
42 754
42 543
-339
857
4 624
6 933
10 954
P supply
12 616
13 393
14 122
14 606
15 837
Total demand
15 645
16 387
16 953
17 669
18 209
Surplus (deficit)
-4 403
-4 459
-4 386
-4 688
-4 066
5 127
5 388
5 784
6 096
6 560
Total demand
10 514
10 866
11 431
11 796
12 141
Surplus (deficit)
-8 100
-8 264
-8 517
-8 648
-8 621
Surplus (deficit)
K supply
supply gap should depend on imports. Imported fertilizer is mainly

phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer.
The production capacity of phosphate fertilizer and nitrogenous
fertilizer increased significantly in 2006, and in terms of the potash
fertilizer, the growth rate of the production capacity is far lower than that
of demand, and it is predicted that after 2006, imported fertilizer will take
potash fertilizer as the core.
The amount of imported fertilizer is expected to reach 1.414billiontonnes
and 1.45 billiontonnes in 2005 and 2006, an increase of 14.03percent and
2.54percent respectively.
Europe
Difficult market conditions as well as high energy costs, which
consequently also led to higher fertilizer costs, led to a significant drop
in fertilizer consumption. In the Eu-15, fertilizer consumption has
dropped dramatically ( -7.2percent on average). In the new Member
States, consumption is stable, but does not compensate the decrease
in the EU-15. In the EU-25 during the 2005-2006 season, nitrogen
consumption decreased by 3.3percent (to 10.11 million tonnes N).
Phosphate decreased by -8.3percent ( to 3.01 million tonnes P2O5), all
compared to 2004/2005.
Consumption of the three major nutrients, nitrogen, phosphorus
and potassium, is envisaged to decline by -3.5percent, -12percent and
16
-10.7percent respectively over the next ten years. For the new Members
States, a significant increase in consumption is foreseen: +32percent for
nitrogen, +17percent for phosphorus and + 18percent for potassium, and
is linked to an expected +19percent increase in cereal production.
At EU-25 level the consumption of nitrogen may increase moderately
by 0.28 million tonnes (+2.5percent), while the next ten years will see
phosphorus and potassium both continuing to decline by 0.23 and
-0.22million tonnes respectively.
Central Europe
Poland is the main fertilizer consumer in the subregion, since this
country accounts for 55percent the total nutrients consumption of the
EU-10. The overall increase in the EU-10 countries, in absolute figures
(0.8million tonnes for N+P+K), is still slightly smaller than the decrease
in the EU-15 countries.
Western Europe
Nitrogen and Phosphate consumption fall in Western Europe ( -5.7 and
4.6percent respectively) over the period 2004/2005 - 2005/2006.
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Russia s fertilizer industry accounts for almost 60percent of total regional
fertilizer production. It is number 4 in global production of nitrogen after
TABLE 9
Europe fertilizer forecast 2006/2007-2010/2011

2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
(thousand tonnes)
N supply
33 373
34 366
35 114
35 664
6 123
6 286
6 286
6 341
6 450
13 186
13 834
14 422
14 747
15 419
P supply
4 636
4 646
4 677
4 680
4 680
Total demand
3 193
3 263
3 293
3 329
3 615
576
510
481
444
154
16 606
16 959
17 044
17 887
18 539
Total demand
Surplus (deficit)
Surplus (deficit)
K supply
Total demand
Surplus (deficit)
36 619
3 155
3 171
3 168
3 150
3 128
10 961
11 270
11 352
12 145
12 767
17
TABLE 10
Oceania fertilizer forecast 2006/2007-2010/2011

2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
(K thousand tonnes)
N supply capability
1 365
1 510
1 548
1 559
562
497
511
533
555
-913
-883
-877
-890
-915
P supply
512
520
560
565
570
Total demand
842
846
855
862
870
-353
-349
-318
-320
-323
Total demand
Surplus (deficit)
Surplus (deficit)
K supply
Total demand
Surplus (deficit)
1 560
395
404
409
413
416
-395
-404
-409
-413
-416
China, India and USA/ It also number 4 in global phosphate production

after China, USA and India. It ranks second in world potash output after
Canada. In 2005 fertilizer output in Russia reached around 16million
tonnes nutrient. That was almost 6percent up on 2004. The production
is by far higher than consumption which in 2005 totaled about 3million
tonnes. The surplus, which is mainly seen in output of nitrogen and potash
fertilizers, is exported. The overall fertilizer consumption is expected to
increase by 4percent from 2006/2007 to 2010/2011.
Oceania
Fertilizer consumption in Oceania is expected to grow by 1percent per
year, till 2010/2011.Nitrogen, Phosphate and Potash consumption will
grow by 1percent respectively.
Oceania depends on imports to meet the balance of its nitrogen and
phosphate and all of its potash requirements. Table 10 shows that the
deficits for all three nutrients are foreseen to remain stable.
19
Annex 1
Explanatory note on supply and

demand balances
New Protocol
In October 2006, the FAO/Industry Working Group adopted a
new protocol for the preparation of its fertilizer nutrient supply/
demand balances. The work was developed by the IFA Production and
International Trade Committee in 2005/06. The main objective of this
revision was to take into account the resilient surplus between production
and consumption and update the parameters used in the computation of
supply and losses.
The new definitions and their criteria are defined as follows:
Supply :
- Total supply is defined as the maximum production achievable and
is computed from the capacity , multiplied by the highest operating
rate achieved over the previous five years. For new plants, a rampup of the operating rates was defined for the first three years of
operation, using the following levels: 85percent, 90percent and
100percent.
Demand :
- Fertilizer demand is provided on a calendar year basis.
- Net non-fertilizer demand excludes the use of products which are
recovered as by-products from industrial processes and then used
as fertilizers.
- Losses occur at both the production and consumption points; their
magnitudes have been estimated at between 2.5percent (nitrogen
and phosphate) and 5percent (potash) of total fertilizer and nonfertilizer demand.
20
- Unspecified usages account for the historical residual tonnage

from the production/consumption balances. This tonnage could
be used either in fertilizers or in non-fertilizer products and would
equate to about 4percent of the other uses (nitrogen).
21
Annex 2
World and regional potential

nitrogen supply and demand
balances (thousand tonnes)
WORLD
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
136 972
141 303
148 051
153 253
165 887
NH3 Supply
126 322
130 500
136 907
142 097
153 639
N Fert. Consumption
90 071
91 933
93 295
94 714
96 213
Non Fertilizer Demand & Others
28 600
29 379
29 923
30 769
32 097
7 651
9 188
13 688
16 614
25 329
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
4 237
4 968
5 050
5 856
7 447
NH3 Supply
3 796
4 615
4 746
5 505
6 952
N Fert. Consumption
2 970
3 120
3 205
3 320
3 427
552
562
567
573
579
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
21 802
21 347
21 673
21 673
25 322
NH3 Supply
19 322
18 951
19 221
19 260
22 431
N Fert. Consumption
17 483
17 915
18 109
18 309
18 613
6 397
6 588
6 566
6 739
6 893
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
13 285
12 738
12 738
12 738
12 738
NH3 Supply
11 465
11 000
11 000
11 000
11 000
N Fert. Consumption
12 969
13 283
13 336
13 393
13 544
5 062
5 201
5 337
5 476
5 618
Surplus (-Deficit)
AFRICA

AMERICA

North America
22
Latin America
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
8 517
8 609
8 935
8 935
12 584
NH3 Supply
7 857
7 951
8 221
8 260
11 431
N Fert. Consumption
4 514
4 632
4 773
4 916
5 069
1 335
1 387
1 229
1 263
1 275
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
73 267
76 052
81 661
85 582
91 885
NH3 Supply
68 466
71 058
76 278
80 109
86 077
N Fert. Consumption
55 044
56 044
57 024
57 965
58 833
13 761
14 158
14 630
15 211
16 290
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
9 433
10 607
12 413
13 505
16 218
NH3 Supply
9 168
10 290
12 058
13 207
15 936
N Fert. Consumption
3 157
3 198
3 226
3 255
3 285
508
514
596
601
607
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
15 114
15 382
16 046
16 656
18 623
NH3 Supply
14 641
14 871
15 430
16 052
17 740
N Fert. Consumption
17 189
17 721
18 235
18 714
19 121
734
751
768
785
800
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
48 720
50 063
53 201
55 421
57 044
NH3 Supply
44 657
45 897
48 790
50 850
52 401
N Fert. Consumption
34 698
35 124
35 563
35 995
36 428
12 519
12 893
13 266
13 825
14 883
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
36 183
37 337
38 068
38 543
39 634
NH3 Supply
33 373
34 366
35 114
35 664
36 619
N Fert. Consumption
13 155
13 409
13 489
13 629
13 825
7 032
7 123
7 203
7 288
7 375
ASIA
West Asia

South Asia

East Asia
EUROPE
Annex 2 World and regional potential nitrogen supply and demand balances
Central Europe
23
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
6 068
6 068
6 120
6 120
6 120
NH3 Supply
5 148
5 148
5 188
5 195
5 195
1900
1950
2005
2060
2110
722
728
736
744
751
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
10 420
10 420
10 420
10 420
10 420
NH3 Supply
10 458
10 458
10 458
10 458
10 458
N Fert. Consumption
8 615
8 646
8 586
8 527
8 480
4 935
5 002
5 060
5 119
5 178
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
19 695
20 849
21 528
22 003
23 094
NH3 Supply
17 767
18 760
19 468
20 011
20 966
N Fert. Consumption
2 640
2 813
2 898
3 042
3 235
1 375
1 393
1 407
1 425
1 446
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
NH3 Capacity (as N)
1 483
1 599
1 599
1 599
1 599
NH3 Supply
1 365
1 510
1 548
1 559
1 560
N Fert. Consumption
1 420
1 445
1 468
1 491
1 515
858
948
957
958
960
N Fert. Consumption
West Europe
East Europe and Central Asia
OCEANIA
25
Annex 3

phosphate supply and demand
WORLD
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
43 121
43 147
45 325
46 404
48 464
Supply
35 426
36 538
37 784
38 909
40 690
P2O5 Fertilizer Consumption
37 782
38 891
39 784
40 605
41 356
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
28 736
29 784
30 616
31 603
32 673
Non-Fertilizer H3PO4 demand
4 878
5 091
5 215
5 289
5 363
Surplus (-Deficit)
1 812
1 663
1 953
2 017
2 654
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
7 238
7 433
7 923
8 583
9 083
Supply
6 436
6 661
6 910
7 526
8 046
1 053
1 141
1 183
1 220
1 255
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
887
950
972
995
1 017
489
515
520
520
520
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
12 974
11 872
12 082
12 082
12 082
Supply
11 224
11 319
11 515
11 533
11 556
9 243
9 469
9 625
9 802
9 949
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
8 168
8 337
8 543
8 749
8 962
2 124
2 216
2 216
2 216
2 216
AFRICA
AMERICA
26

North America
Capacity
Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 20010-11
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
11 202
10 092
10 122
10 122
10 122
Supply
9 545
9 612
9 640
9 640
9 640
4 902
4 987
4 996
5 020
5 073
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
4 527
4 664
4 738
4 809
4 884
1 102
1 160
1 160
1 160
1 160
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
1 772
1 780
1 960
1 960
1 960
Supply
1 679
1 707
1 874
1 892
1 916
4 341
4 483
4 629
4 782
4 876
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
3 641
3 673
3 805
3 940
4 078
1 022
1 056
1 056
1 056
1 056
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
14 916
15 786
17 174
17 592
19 152
Supply
12 616
13 393
14 122
14 606
15 837
22 018
22 760
23 408
23 959
24 448
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
15 645
16 387
16 953
17 669
18 209
1 374
1 464
1 554
1 624
1 694
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
2 320
2 320
2 360
2 370
3 750
Supply
1 819
1 819
1 853
1 862
2 552
1 467
1 496
1 521
1 544
1 566
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
1 064
1 087
1 107
1 126
1 139
249
269
289
289
289
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
1 995
2 015
2 015
2 015
2 155
Supply
1 242
1 292
1 487
1 487
1 592
6 488
6 847
7 163
7 438
7 702
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
5 648
5 834
5 992
6 356
6 600
90
90
90
90
90
Latin America
ASIA
West Asia
South Asia
Annex 3 - World and regional potential phosphate supply and demand balances
East Asia
27
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
10 602
11 452
12 799
13 208
13 248
9 555
10 283
10 782
11 257
11 693
14 063
14 416
14 724
14 977
15 180
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
8 933
9 466
9 854
10 187
10 470
1 035
1 105
1 175
1 245
1 315
Capacity
Supply
EUROPE
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
7 442
7 506
7 546
7 546
7 546
Supply
4 636
4 646
4 677
4 680
4 680
3 964
4 010
4 042
4 086
4 150
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
3 193
3 263
3 293
3 329
3 615
868
874
903
907
911
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Central Europe
Capacity
1 219
1 219
1 219
1 219
1 219
Supply
602
602
602
602
602
680
692
709
719
729
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
524
537
553
564
576
96
97
101
105
109
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
1 225
1 225
1 225
1 225
1 225
Supply
1 087
1 087
1 087
1 087
1 087
2 564
2 539
2 514
2 489
2 464
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
2 216
2 236
2 224
2 212
2 226
599
599
624
624
624
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
4 998
5 062
5 102
5 102
5 102
Supply
2 947
2 957
2 987
2 991
2 991
720
779
819
878
957
H3PO4 Fert. Demand
453
491
516
553
813
173
178
178
178
178
West Europe
28

OCEANIA
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Capacity
550
550
600
600
600
Supply
512
520
560
565
570
1.503
1.511
1.526
1.539
1.554
842
846
855
862
870
23
23
23
23
23

H3PO4 Fert. Demand
29
Annex 4

potash supply and demand
WORLD TOTAL
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Potash Capacity
39 834
Potash Supply
37 244
40 400
41 015
42 825
45 110
38 038
38 614
39 969
Potash Fertilizer Consumption
42 513
26 156
26 894
27 729
28 403
29 089
Non Fertilizer Demand & other
4 163
4217
4265
4341
4477
Surplus (-Deficit)
6 925
6 926
6 620
7 225
8 947
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Potash Capacity
Potash Supply
472
495
507
524
541
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Potash Capacity
16 375
16 565
16 670
16 880
18 335
Potash Supply
15 511
15 692
15 786
15 986
17 415
9 018
9 306
9 517
9 750
10 021
1 562
1 566
1 568
1 572
1 636
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Potash Capacity
15 300
15 490
15 595
15 805
16 060
Potash Supply
14 459
14 639
14 734
14 933
15 163
5 094
5 198
5 212
5 241
5 299
1 367
1 371
1 373
1 377
1 381
AFRICA

AMERICA
North America
30

Latin America
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Potash Capacity
1 075
1 075
1 075
1 075
2 275
Potash Supply
1 052
1 052
1 052
1 052
2 252
3 924
4 109
4 305
4 509
4 722
195
195
195
195
255
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
7 270
ASIA
Potash Capacity
5 554
5 880
6 300
6 690
Potash Supply
5 127
5 388
5 784
6 096
6 560
11 871
12 259
12 866
13 270
13 661
1 357
1 393
1 435
1 474
1 520
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
West Asia
Potash Capacity
3 420
3 420
3 720
3 720
3 720
Potash Supply
3 420
3 420
3 720
3 720
3 720
422
422
432
442
452
185
185
200
200
200
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
0
South Asia
Potash Capacity
Potash Supply
2 563
2 676
2 788
2 802
2 903
100
100
100
100
100
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Potash Capacity
2 134
2 460
2 580
2 970
3 550
Potash Supply
1 707
1 968
2 064
2 376
2 840
8 886
9 161
9 646
10 026
10 306
1072
1108
1135
1174
1220
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11

East Asia
EUROPE
Potash Capacity
17905
17955
18045
19255
19505
16 606
16 959
17 044
17 887
18 539
4400
4430
4430
4446
4450
1245
1259
1262
1296
1322
Potash Supply
Annex 4 - World and regional potential potash supply and demand balances
31
Central Europe
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
0
Potash Capacity
Potash Supply
671
687
689
705
705
200
200
200
200
200
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
West Europe
Potash Capacity
5 590
5 590
5 590
5 590
5 590
Potash Supply
5 391
5 391
5 391
5 391
5 391
2 857
2 831
2 829
2 809
2 803
500
500
500
500
500
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11

Potash Capacity
12 315
12 365
12 455
13 665
13 915
Potash Supply
11 215
11 568
11 653
12 496
13 148
872
912
912
932
942
545
559
562
596
622
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
0
OCEANIA
Potash Capacity
Potash Supply
395
404
409
413
416

33
Annex 5
Regional country classification1

AFRICA
Liberia
AFRICA
Portugal
(developing
countries)
Libya
(developed
.countries)
Spain
Algeria
Madagascar
South Africa
Sweden
Angola
Malawi
Benin
Mali
EUROPE
Botswana
Mauritania
Central Europe
Burkina Faso
Mauritius
Albania
Burundi
Morocco
Bulgaria
Cameroon
Mozambique
Czech Republic
Canada
Cape Verde
Namibia
Former Yugoslavia2
United States
Central African Rep.
Niger
Hungary
Chad
Nigeria
Poland
Latin America
Comoros
Reunion
Romania
Argentina
Congo, Dem. R
Rwanda
Slovak Republic
Bahamas
Congo Rep
St Helena
Cte dIvoire
Sao Tome & Principe
Western Europe
Belize
Djibouti
Senegal
Austria
Bermuda
Egypt
Seychelles
Belgium-Luxembourg
Bolivia
Eq. Guinea
Sierra Leone
Denmark
Brazil
Eritrea
Somalia
Finland
Chile
Ethiopia
Sudan
France
Colombia
Ethiopia PDR
Swaziland
Germany
Costa Rica
Gabon
Tanzania
Greece
Cuba
Gambia
Togo
Iceland
Dominica
Ghana
Tunisia
Ireland
Dominican Rep.
Guinea
Uganda
Italy
Ecuador
Guinea-Bissau
Western Sahara
Malta
El Salvador
Kenya
Zambia
Netherlands
French Guyana
Lesotho
Zimbabwe
Norway
Switzerland
United Kingdom
AMERICA
Barbados
The classification attempts a purely geographical approach to facilitate easier comparison

of historical data.
2
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Slovenia, Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro).
1
34

Greenland
Jordan
East Asia
Estonia
Grenada
Kuwait
Brunei
Georgia
Guadeloupe
Lebanon
Cambodia
Kazakhstan
Guatemala
Oman
China
Kyrgyzstan
Indonesia
Latvia
Guyana
Haiti
ASIA
Japan
Lithuania
Honduras
West Asia
Korea DPR
Moldavia
Jamaica
Afghanistan
Korea Rep.
Russian Federation
Martinique
Bahrain
Lao PDR
Tajikistan
Mexico
Cyprus
Malaysia
Turkmenistan
Nicaragua
Iran
Mongolia
Ukraine
Panama
Qatar
Myanmar
Uzbekistan
Paraguay
Saudi Arabia
Philippines
Peru
Syria
Singapore
Suriname
Turkey
Taiwan
St. Kitts & Nevis
U. A. Emirate
Thailand
Australia
Saint Lucia
Yemen
Viet Nam
Caledonia
Trinidad & Tobago
South Asia
Eastern Europe and

Central Asia
French Polynesia
Uruguay
Bangladesh
Armenia
New Zealand
Venezuela
Bhutan
Azerbaijan
Papua New Guinea
Virgin Islands
India
Belarus
Iraq
Nepal
Israel
Pakistan
Saint Vincent
OCEANIA
Fiji
Sri Lanka

Current Wolrd Fertilizers Trends and Outlook

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Current Wolrd Fertilizers Trends and Outlook

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Current world fertilizer

trends and outlook

Current world fertilizer

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information

Supply and demand balances

The regional fertilizer situation

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

2. World and regional potential nitrogen supply

3. World and regional potential phosphate supply

4. World and regional potential potash supply

5. Regional country classification

1. World Fertilizer Consumption

2. World fertilizer supply and demand

3. World nitrogen supply and demand balance

4. World phosphate supply and demand balance

5. World potash supply and demand balance

6. Africa fertilizer forecast

7. America fertilizer forecast

8. Asia fertilizer forecast

9. Europe fertilizer forecast

10. Oceania fertilizer forecast

2. Regional and subregional share in world total phosphate

3. Regional and subregional share in world total potash

Current world fertilizer

This report presents world nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizer

This report provides an overview of the information on the world

Nutrient balance per region (000 tonnes)

1. East Europe and Central Asia

The world fertilizer outlook

In October 2006, the FAO/Fertilizer Organizations Working Group

Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2010/11

only with a modest rise in food consumption and a strong growth in

The world fertilizer outlook

World Fertilizer Consumption, 2006/2007-2010/2011

East Europe & Central

Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2010/11

Regional and subregional share in world total nitrogen comsuption 2007-2011

East Europe and

West Europe 10%

North America 16%

East Asia 36%

High natural gas prices in the US have resulted in North American

The world fertilizer outlook

Regional and subregional share in world total phosphate comsuption 2007-2011

East Europe and

North America 13%

East Asia 39%

South Asia 19%

fertilizer production increasingly is being located in the large consuming

Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2010/11

Regional and subregional share in world total potash comsuption 2007-2011

East Europe and

West Europe 11%

North America 20%

Latin America 16%

East Asia 37%

The world fertilizer outlook

can convert gas efficiently are key factors in determining competitiveness.

Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2010/11

World fertilizer supply and demand, 2006/2007-2010/2011

World nitrogen supply and demand balance, 2006/2007-2010/2011

World phosphate supply and demand balance, 2006/2007-2010/2011