Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Promedio
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
66
5.5
Y
6531
8252
8492
14198
8441
6343
3211
3211
4493
4872
5568
6333
79944.285232
6662.0237693
x=X-Xpro
-5.50
-4.50
-3.50
-2.50
-1.50
-0.50
0.50
1.50
2.50
3.50
4.50
5.50
y=Y-Ypro
-131.065733
1589.86673
1830.46526
7536.15733
1778.91297
-319.017225
-3451.36905
-3451.36905
-2169.42254
-1790.00382
-1094.23567
-328.919213
xy
720.861533
-7154.40031
-6406.62841
-18840.3933
-2668.36946
159.508613
-1725.68452
-5177.05357
-5423.55634
-6265.01337
-4924.06051
-1809.05567
-59513.8453
x^2
30.25
20.25
12.25
6.25
2.25
0.25
0.25
2.25
6.25
12.25
20.25
30.25
143
X^2
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
506
Y^2
42653412.86799
68093696.89001
72122369.8907
201588346.6052
71249413.04868
40233732.01723
10308303.73106
10308303.73106
20183465.82977
23736578.3932
31000264.3265
40108213.31723
631586100.6486
XY
0
8251.8905
16984.9781
42594.5433
33763.747
31715.0327
19263.9283
22474.583
35940.8099
43848.1796
55677.881
69664.1501
380179.723
AO
TPDS
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
6113
7383
7949
10633
7758
6349
4160
4160
5821
5931
6778
7107
AUTOS
%A
60
59
69
51
69
63
70
70
70
67
67
63
BUSES
%B
6
5
6
6
5
5
6
6
6
8
8
12
TIPO DE VEHICULO
BUS-P900
C2P
C2G
C3
C3-C4
C2-S1
C4
C3-S1
C2-S2
C3-S2
> C5
1.00
1.14
3.44
3.76
3.74
3.37
6.73
2.22
3.42
4.40
4.72
PASO 1
CAMIONES
%C
34
36
34
43
35
32
24
24
24
25
25
26
C2P
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
C2G
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
PASO 2
Fc.camiones
2.97
2.97
2.97
2.97
2.97
2.97
2.97
2.97
2.97
2.97
2.97
2.97
Fc global
2.67
2.73
TPD equivalente
6531
8252
2.67
2.73
2.72
2.70
2.57
2.57
2.57
2.49
2.49
2.35
8492
14198
8441
6343
3211
3211
4493
4872
5568
6333
PASO 3
ECUACION DE REGRESION
COEFICIENTE DE X
TERMINO INDEPENDIENTE
Y=-99,50X+11509,80
-416.18
9367.2
PASO 4
CALCULAR TPD EQUIVALENTE ESTIMAD
MIONES %
C5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
>C5
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
%VC
40
41
40
49
40
37
30
30
30
33
33
38
X
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Y
-824657.52
-825073.7
-825489.88
-825906.06
-826322.24
-826738.42
-827154.6
-827570.78
-827986.96
ao
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
O3
AOS
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
-828403.14
-828819.32
-829235.5
PASO 4
ALCULAR TPD EQUIVALENTE ESTIMADO CON LA ECUACION OBTENIDA
TPD EQUIV. DIARIO
TPD EQUIV. DIARIO
OBSERVADO
ESTIMADO MODELO
6530.96
-824657.52
8251.89
-825073.7
8492.49
-825489.88
14198.18
-825906.06
8440.94
-826322.24
6343.01
-826738.42
3210.65
-827154.6
3210.65
-827570.78
4492.60
-827986.96
4872.02
-828403.14
5567.79
-828819.32
6333.10
-829235.5
TPDequivalente
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
6
AOS
10
11
12
AOS
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PASO
HACER DIFERENCIA DE TRANSIT
TPD EQUIV. DIARIO
OBSERVADO
6530.96
8251.89
8492.49
14198.18
8440.94
6343.01
3210.65
3210.65
4492.60
4872.02
5567.79
6333.10
SUMATORIA
PASO 6
CALCULO DE ERROR ESTANDAR DEL MODELO DE PROYECCI
ERROR ESTANDAR
n = # DE AOS DE SERIE HISTORICA
= ()/(n-1))^0.5
10
11
12
= ()/(n-1))^0.5
PASO 7
DETERMINAR EL VALOR PROMEDIO DE LOS AOS REGISTRADOS E
AO PROMEDIO: (INICIAL+FINAL)/2
PASO 8
CALCULAR LA DIFERENCIA DE CADA AO DE LA SERIE HIST
AOS
DIFERENCIA
2004
-5.5
2005
-4.5
2006
-3.5
2007
-2.5
2008
-1.5
2009
-0.5
2010
0.5
2011
1.5
2012
2.5
2013
3.5
2014
2015
4.5
5.5
SUMATORIA
PASO 5
DIFERENCIA DE TRANSITO Y ELEVARLO AL CUADRADO
TPD EQUIV. DIARIO
DIFERENCIA DE
TRANSITOS
ESTIMADO MODELO
-824657.52
831188.48
-825073.7
833325.59
-825489.88
833982.37
-825906.06
840104.24
-826322.24
834763.18
-826738.42
833081.43
-827154.6
830365.25
-827570.78
830781.43
-827986.96
832479.56
-828403.14
833275.16
-828819.32
834387.11
-829235.5
835568.60
SUMATORIA
DIFERENCIA AL
CUADRADO
690874286019.80
694431539788.84
695526591849.56
705775135917.57
696829561241.06
694024663252.59
689506456246.21
690197792275.42
693022219869.02
694347492189.70
696201846163.48
698174892919.66
8338912477732.90
SO 6
MODELO DE PROYECCION ASUMIDO
= ()/(n-1))^0.5
12
913176.460369676
SO 7
S AOS REGISTRADOS EN SERIE HISTORICA
2009.5
SO 8
A AO DE LA SERIE HISTORICA CON EL AO PROMEDIO Y ELEVAR AL CUADRADO
DIFERENCIA AL CUADRADO
30.25
20.25
12.25
6.25
2.25
0.25
0.25
2.25
6.25
12.25
20.25
30.25
143
PASO 9
CALCULAR EL PRONOSTICO DEL TRANSITO EQUIVALENTE P
AOS DE PROYECCIONES
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
PASO 10
Errorpron.ao2016 =ErrorEstandar*((2016-2009,5)^2/PASO8 + 1/n
AOS DE PROYECCIONES
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
PASO 9
ULAR EL PRONOSTICO DEL TRANSITO EQUIVALENTE PARA LOS AOS SUBSIGUIENTES CON LA ECUACION DEL MO
TRANSITO DIARIO EQUIVALENTE PROYECTADO
-829651.68
-830067.86
-830484.04
-830900.22
-831316.4
-831732.58
-832148.76
-832564.94
-832981.12
-833397.3
PASO 10
016 =ErrorEstandar*((2016-2009,5)^2/PASO8 + 1/n)^0.5
TRANSITO DIARIO EQUIVALENTE PROYECTADO
-829651.68
-830067.86
-830484.04
-830900.22
-831316.40
-831732.58
-832148.76
-832564.94
-832981.12
-833397.30
0.5002135961
ERROR DE PRONOSTICO
562021.26
630482.04
700578.42
771864.92
0.9243
1.0041
1.0844
1.1653
1.2464
1.3279
844040.04
916893.97
990276.90
1064079.38
1138219.81
1212636.20
PASO 11
NIVEL DE CONFIANZA ASUMIDO = 95%
Zr=
ERROR PROYECTADO=ERROR PRONOST. * Zr
LIMITE SUPERIOR TTO = TTO EQUIV PROYECTADO+ERROR PROYECTADO
AO DE PROYECCIONES
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
SUMATORIA
1.645
TRANSITO DIARIO
EQUIVALENTE PROYECTADO
-848386.08
-848802.26
-849218.44
-849634.62
-850050.8
-850466.98
-850883.16
-851299.34
-851715.52
-852131.7
SUMATORIA
ERROR DE
PRONOSTICO
Zr
562021.260170665
630482.037383323
700578.415808252
771864.916020898
844040.043555794
916893.972235371
990276.896717085
1064079.37799577
1138219.80646721
1212636.1975658
1.645
1.645
1.645
1.645
1.645
1.645
1.645
1.645
1.645
1.645
ERROR
PROYECTADO
924524.972980744
1037142.95149557
1152451.49400458
1269717.78685438
1388445.87164928
1508290.58432719
1629005.49509961
1750410.57680303
1872371.58163857
1994786.54499574
PASO 12
CALCULO DEL NUMERO DE EJES EQUIVALENTES DE 8.2 TON
PERIODO DE DISEO
FACTOR DIRECCIONAL
FACTOR CARRIL
N= 365*SUMATORIA PASO 11* FD* Fca
2
QUIVALENTES DE 8.2 TON
10
0.5
1
1099482010.17238
ENSAYO No.
NUMERO DE RESULTADO
MAYORES o IGUALES QUE
9
7
5
12
8
3
4
2
10
13
6
1
11
14
3.83
3.87
3.95
4.27
4.42
4.43
4.58
5.14
5.42
5.47
5.69
5.78
5.91
8.62
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
DETERMINACION DEL P
% DE RESULTADOS
MAYORES o IGUALES QUE
100
92.86
85.71
78.57
71.43
64.29
57.14
50.00
42.86
35.71
28.57
21.43
14.29
7.14
120
f(x) = 159.5172513
R = 0.8864322783
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CBR %
CBR DISEO=
3.70%
120
100
80
Column E
60
Exponential (Column E)
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
CBR %
No Ensayo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
PROMEDIO
CBR%
3.83
3.87
3.95
4.27
4.42
4.43
4.58
5.14
5.42
5.47
5.69
5.78
5.91
8.62
sumatoria
CBRpro - CBRi
1.27
1.23
1.15
0.83
0.68
0.67
0.52
-0.04
-0.32
-0.37
-0.59
-0.68
-0.81
-3.52
sumatoria
(CBRpro-CBRi)^2
1.61
1.51
1.32
0.69
0.46
0.45
0.27
0.00
0.10
0.14
0.35
0.46
0.66
12.40
20.42
Zr=
n=
DESVIACION ESTANDAR
CBRdis= CBRpro-Zr*DESVIACION
1.645
14
RAIZ((CBRpro-CBRi)^2/n-1))=
3.04
1.25