The Science of the Total Environment 169 (199.

5) 303-310

ELSEVIER

Air pollution from motor vehicles: issues and options for

Latin American countries
Asif Faiz a, Surhid Gautama, Emaad Burkib
a The World Bank, 1818 H St. Na: Washington, DC 20433, USA
bAPOGEE
Research Inc., 4350 East- West Highway, Bethesda, MD 20814,

USA

Received 7 April 1994; accepted 11 September 1994

Abstract
Latin America is amongthe mosturbanized regionsof the world with relatively high motorization levelscompared
with the rest of the developing world. The automotive air pollution problem in Latin America is essentiallya
metropolitan problem, resulting from rapid and uncontrolled urban growth, increasingtraffic congestion,inadequate
urban transport infrastructure and services, and an aging and obsolete motor vehicle fleet. The problem is
exacerbatedby the vulnerable and sensitivephysicallocation of the urban centersin the region. The paper discusses
the size of the population in Latin America at risk, the magnitudeof health costsassociatedwith elevated levels of
air pollution and the contribution of motor vehiclesto the problem. The regional motorization characteristicsand
trends are analyzed, including certain similaritieswith industrialized countries. As someLatin American countries
directed attention towardsautomotive air pollution long before other developingcountries, there is a large body of
practical and innovative pollution control experiencein Brazil, Chile and Mexico from which other countriesin the
region could benefit.
Keywords:

Latin America; Air pollution; Motor vehicles;Population; Health costs

1. Introduction
Poor air quality is a common environmental
feature of almost all major metropolitan
areas in
Latin America with the most severe problems in

Mexico City, Go Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Santiago, Lima-Callao and Caracas. Mexico City is by

* Corresponding author.
004%9697/95/$09.50
SSDI

0048-9697(95)

far the most populous and the most polluted

metropolis in the developing world. Ambient concentrations of one or more criteria pollutants
associated with motor vehicle use - carbon
monoxide (CO), respirable particulate
matter
(PM,,), lead (Pb), sulfur dioxide (SO,), nitrogen
oxides (NO,) and ozone (0,) - routinely exceed
air quality standards in these cities. Other cities
with moderate to severe problems include Bello
Horizonte
(Brazil), Bogota (Colombia),
Quito

0 1995 Elsevier Science BV. All rights reserved.

04662-7

304

A. Faiz et al. /The

Science of the Total Environment

(Ecuador), Guatemala
City (Guatemala)
and
Guadlajara and Monterey (Mexico). Many cities
in Latin America, particularly those located at
high elevation, have physiographic and meteorological conditions that make them especially vulnerable to air quality problems [1,2,3].
It has been estimated that > 80 million urban
dwellers in the region (27% of the urban population and 19% of the total population of Latin
America in 1987) are exposed to air pollution
levels exceeding WHO guidelines [4]. The population at risk comprises N 30 million children (O-14
years), 47 million adults (15-59 years) and 4 million elderly people (2 60 years).
The health costs of air pollution include the
direct hospital and medical expenses associated
with morbidity and mortality, the lost work days
associated with morbidity and the cost of premature deaths. There are also welfare costs associated with damage to physical and cultural assets
(buildings, monuments),
decline in crop yields
and loss of amenity values. Using the human
capital approach, Margulis [5] estimated air pollution related health costs in Mexico City in excess
of US$ 1.10 billion/year
- US$840 million from
particulate pollution (mortality and morbidity);
US$ 100 million from ozone (morbidity); and US$
130 million from airborne lead (compensatory
education due to loss of IQ points in children,
treatment of children with excess lead in the
blood, hypertension in adults and myocardial infarctions). Romieu et al. [4] have estimated the
annual health impacts of excessive levels of particulate matter (TSP) in urban areas in Latin
America. These impacts translate into N 24300
excess deaths, 2.3 million extra cases of chronic
Table 1
Contribution
City

Mexico City
Santiago
Sk0 Paul0

169 (1995) 303-310

cough in children, 65 million respiratory-related

restricted activity days (RRAD) in adults from
exposure to respirable particles and 105000 excess cases of chronic bronchitis in the elderly.
The available evidence, albeit approximate and
fragmentary, points to the heavy and growing toll
that air pollution imposes on the health and welfare of the urban population in Latin America.
2. Motor vehicles and urban air pollution
The contribution of motor vehicles to pollutant
emissions in selected Latin American cities is
shown in Table 1. Although emission data are
available for only three cities: Mexico City, Santiago and Sao Paulo, a number of generalized
inferences can be drawn regarding the role of
motor vehicles in urban air pollution in Latin
America:
Motor vehicles are the primary source of CO
emissions in urban areas, accounting for an
SO-99% share. Although Sao Paulo has 4
million vehicles compared with 3 million in
Mexico City, estimated CO emissions from
motor vehicles in Sao Paulo (1.3 million
tons/year)
are significantly lower than in
Mexico City (2.9 million tons/year) due to the
extensive use of ethanol and gasohol as a
motor fuel. Unit CO emissions from uncontrolled alcohol/gasohol
fueled vehicles in Sao
Paulo are 50-70% lower compared to equivalent gasoline fueled vehicles [6].
Motor vehicle contributions to HC emissions
tends to be large if there are no refineries or
petroleum-based industries in the urban area

of motor vehicles to pollutant emissions in Latin American cities: Mexico City, Santiago and SCo Paulo
Year

1989
1993
1977
1981
1990

Source: Faiz, 1993 [l].

Population
(million)
15.0
4.8
10.1
12.5
16.0

Total man made

emissions from all
sources (000 tons /vear)
4058
424
2629
3150
2055

Percent attributable to motor vehicles (%>

co

HC

NO,

SO,

PM

96
95
94
96
94

54
69
72
83
89

64
85
73
89
92

8
14
9
26
64

3
11
7
24
39

A. Faiz et al. / The Science

of the Total Environment

of interest. Large scale introduction

of alcohol-based fuels as in Brazil can result in
increased emissions of aldehydes and unburnt
alcohol, which are commonly included in estimates of HC emissions.
. The level of vehicle ownership and use, particularly diesel-fueled vehicles, explains the variation in the motor vehicle share of NO, emissions. The relative proportions of HC and
NO, emissions have a direct influence on
maximum
ozone (0,) concentrations.
The
magnitude and frequency of urban ozone concentrations in Latin America are among the
highest recorded in the world.
e The motor vehicle share of SO, emissions is a
function of the proportion
of diesel-fueled
vehicles in the fleet and the sulfur content of
the diesel fuel. Typically, motor vehicles are
not a major contributor to SO, emissions as
shown by the data for Mexico City and Santiago. In S?io Paulo the motor vehicle share of
SO, emissions is uncharacteristically
high because of the extensive use of buses run on
poor quality diesel fuel with a high sulfur
content. Furthermore, the motor vehicle share
has been rising with stationary sources brought
under control during the 1980s.
l
Although motor vehicles are a small contributor to suspended particulate matter @PM)
emissions, they are a major source of respirable fine particulate
matter (PM,,).
In
Mexico City and Santiago, fugitive dust constitutes the major portion of particulate matter
with a significant amount dispersed from unpaved roads by the passage of vehicles. In all
three metropolitan
areas, diesel fueled vehicles are a major source of PM,, emissions - 24% in Santiago and an estimated 40% in
Sao Paulo. Motor vehicles do not contribute
to any lead emissions in $0 Paul0 following
the introduction of gasohol (gasoline blended
with 22% ethanol) and the complete phase-out
of lead additives in gasoline in 1991. In Mexico City virtually 100% of lead emissions (1300
tons) in 1989 came from gasoline-fueled automobiles; the introduction
of lead-free gasoline, using ethers (MTBE)
as an octane

169 (199.5) 303-310

305

booster, should help to bring down emissions

of airborne lead.
Topography
and meteorological
conditions
have a profound influence on the relationship
between emissions and ambient concentrations. Although pollutant emissions in Santiago are 10% of those in Sao Paulo, air pollution episodes in Santiago equal those in Sao
Paulo in severity and magnitude.

With continuing reductions in pollutant emissions from stationary sources and progressive
controls applied to mobile emissions, aggregate
pollutant emissions declined during the 1980s in
Sao Paulo. A similar trend is beginning to emerge
in Mexico City. Despite these improving trends,
all the three metropolitan areas continue to have
some of the most severe vehicle-related air pollution problems in the world. Without effective
controls, the continuing growth in motorization in
Latin America is likely to result in a deterioration
of urban air quality over the next decade, particularly in the secondary cities. The severity of the
problem stems from two special characteristics:
an excessive and increasing dependence on the
private automobile
for urban transport (as in
North America) and continuing use of outdated
and polluting motor vehicle and fuel technology.
3. Motorization

characteristics and trends

The global vehicle fleet has grown 15-fold over

the last 40 years and was estimated at > 600
million vehicles in 1988 - 406 million automobiles, 124 million trucks and buses and 82
million motorcycles and three-wheelers. As shown
in Table 2, the Latin America and Caribbean
region, with 8.5% of the worlds population (440
million in 1990), accounts for 6% of the cars,
trucks and buses, and 5% of motorcycles and
three-wheelers in the world. Motorization
levels
are relatively
high in Latin America
(88
vehicles/1000 population),
N 3 times as high as
in Asia (excluding Japan) and 4 times higher than
in Africa. Within the region, Argentina, Brazil,
Mexico and Venezuela together account for 83%
of the cars and 71% of the trucks and buses [7].
Automobiles constitute between 70-90% of the

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A. Faiz et al. / The Science of the Total Environment

national vehicle fleets in Latin America, a distribution similar to that in the United States
(78%) and Canada (76%). Road transport is the
predominant intercity and urban transport mode
in all Latin American countries, as in North
America.
The contribution of motor vehicles to urban air
pollution
is significant and growing in Latin
America because of the following road transport
characteristics:
.

Extensive use of aging and poorly-maintained

diesel-powered vehicles run on diesel fuel with
a high sulfur content are a principal source of
respirable PM, smoke and SO, emissions in
urban areas. Some Latin American countries
(e.g. Venezuela and Ecuador) have large fleets
of heavy-duty vehicles (trucks and buses) powered by gasoline engines which have poor fuel
economy and very high emissions of CO, HC
and lead as compared with diesel-powered
trucks and buses of equivalent capacity.
Higher average age of the vehicle fleet and
low scrappage rates. The average age of the
vehicle fleet in Mexico Citys Federal District
(DF), for example, is 9 years, with N 10% of
cars and trucks > 20 years old. The high
vehicle age is predominantly
due to the high
cost of vehicle ownership and a vehicle tax
structure which exempts vehicles > 10 years
old. In addition, the older age profile of the
vehicle fleets is associated with poor standards
of vehicle maintenance, which is further exacerbated by overloading, particularly in the case
of trucks and buses. The very low price of
motor fuels in some countries (for example

169 (1995)

303-310

the price of gasoline in Venezuela is US 5 c/l)

encourages the use of older fuel-guzzling vehicles.
Indigenous
production
of obsolete vehicle
models. The typical domestically
manufactured and assembled automobiles in Latin
America are half as fuel efficient (15-20 mpg)
compared with the best practice in the US
and Japan (30-40 mpg), and have emission
characteristics of US models of the 1960s and
1970s. The Volkswagen Beetle is still a production line model in Brazil and Mexico.
Manufacture and assembly of motor vehicles
in Latin America (primarily Argentina, Brazil,
Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Venezuela)
averaged N 3 million vehicles/year
during
1985-1990, accounting for a 6-8% share of
the world motor vehicle production [7].
Poor fuel quality particularly the high lead
content of gasoline and the high sulfur content of diesel, which are directly correlated
with lead and SO, emissions in vehicle exhaust, remains a problem in many Latin
American countries. Only Brazil has succeeded in completely eliminating
the use of
leaded gasoline; through the introduction of
pure alcohol or alcohol-blended fuels.
The heavy concentration of motor vehicles in
large urban areas with inadequate infrastructure. Metropolitan
cities tend to draw the
largest concentrations; in Brazil, for example,
N 25% of the countrys automobile fleet operates in the Sgo Paul0 metropolitan
area. The
number of vehicles/1000
population is 33%
greater in Mexico City than the national average for Mexico. Insufficient road space (par-

Table 2
The share of the Americas in the global motor vehicle fleet, 1988 (in thousands)
Region

Cars
N

Trucks/buses
N

Two and three wheelers

N
%

USA
Canada
Latin
America

141.515
11900
2.5684

34.9
2.9
6.3

43 145
3960
7473

34.7
3.2
6.0

7135
433
4332

8.7
0.5
5.3

World

405 883

100.0

124435

100.0

81711

100.0

Source: Faiz, 1993 [l].

Total
N

19177.5
16293
37 489

31.3
2.7
6.1

612029

100.0

A. Faiz et al. / The Science

of the

titularly the ratio of local streets to arterials),

ineffective traffic management and poor public/mass transportation
systems have contributed to traffic congestion, declining travel
speeds, particularly
during the peak hours,
and increasing pollutant emissions in all major
metropolitan centers in Latin America. A significant reduction in public investment in urban transport infrastructure in the 1980s has
not helped matters.
Worldwide experience clearly shows that urbanization and motorization
are closely linked.
The urban population in Latin America is estimated to increase from 320 million in 1990 to 411
million by the year 2000 (a 28% increase) with
76% of the total population living in urban areas.
The four Latin American megacities (cities with a
population of > 10 million) - Buenos Aires,
Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo will have a combined population of 73 million.
Furthermore, in most other metropolitan
cities,
e.g. Bogota, Caracas, La Paz, Lima and Santiago,
the increasing pace of motorization will exacerbate air quality problems.
The size of the vehicle fleet is highly correlated
with national income and the level of urbanization. A cross-sectional regression performed on a
sub-set of 20 countries in the Latin America and
Caribbean region using data for 1990 gave the
following relationship:
log vehicles,,,,

= - 7.751
+ 1.115.log GNP/capita
+ 0.677. log urban population
(1)

This model suggests that national income

(GNP/capita)
and urban population
exert a
strong influence on vehicle registrations. This
methodology was replicated for the same variables by using data for 1970 and 1980:
log vehicles,,,,

= - 10.317
+ 1.095 * log GNP /capita
+ 0.979 * log urban population

Total Environment

169 (1995) 303-310

log vehicles,,,,

307

= - 7.534
+ 0.776. log GNP / capita
+ 0.941. log urban population
(3)

The model forms and elasticity coefficients are

similar for the three regression analyses. The
change in the coefficients for log GNP/capita
and log urban population between 1970,198O and
1990 reveal that the demand for vehicles with
respect to national income (GNP/capita)
has become more elastic over time, whereas urban
population is exerting less of an influence on
vehicle registrations. This tends to support the
conclusion that a transition has occurred over the
past 20 years resulting in income rather than
urbanization becoming a determinant factor in
motor vehicle ownership in Latin America.
As shown in Table 3, Latin American countries
motorized rapidly in the 1970s (the vehicle fleet
grew by 17% per annum in Guatemala, 11% per
annum in Brazil and Mexico and 10% per annum
in Colombia). In no country was the growth in the
vehicle fleet < 2% per annum. The economic
downturn of the 1980s depressed the growth in
motorization.
Still, except for Ecuador, Guatemala and Uruguay, the national vehicle fleets in
Latin America grew at a faster pace than the
national incomes. An extrapolation of past trends
suggests that the vehicle population (automobiles,
buses and trucks) in the Latin America and
Caribbean region is likely to increase by N 3%
annually from 38.6 million in 1990 to 52 million in
2000 and N 70 million
in 2010, under a low
economic growth scenario (l-3% growth in GNP
per annum). Higher economic growth could result
in a doubling of the vehicle fleet well before 2010.
Most of the growth in the regional vehicle fleet
will be concentrated in large cities, particularly
metropolitan areas with a population in the range
of l-5 million,
4. Vehicle emission control strategies

(2)

Administratively
simple measures that encourage the use of energy efficient and environmen-

308
Table 3
Motorization

A. Fait et al. / Xhe Science of the Total Environment

trends in selected Latin American countries

Motor Vehicle feet
(000)

Vehicles per
000 population

Annual Vehicle
growth

1980

1990

1980

1990

1970-80

4177
64
10 160
588

5785
317
13 063
1017

169
18
87
56

179
43
87
77

Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Guatemala

754
175
215
334

1381
250
240
230

45
77
60
48

Mexico
Peru
Uw+v
Venezuela

4847
489
261
1933

9882
625
258
2184

74
33
130
169

Countries

Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile

169 (1995) 303-310

Annual
growth in
GNP

Annual growth
in GNP/capita

1980-90

1980-90

1980-90

5.9
2.9
11.1
6.1

3.3
17.4
2.6
5.6

-0.5
0.0
2.7
2.8

-1.8
-2.6
0.6
1.1

42
83
23
25

9.8
11.7
8.9
16.9

6.2
3.6
1.1
-3.7

3.1
3.0
1.9
0.7

1.1
0.6
-0.8
-2.1

112
29
83
111

10.5
3.1
2.2
8.5

7.4
2.5
-0.1
1.2

1.1
0.2
-0.3
0.7

-0.9
-2.0
-0.9
-2.0

Sources: MVMA, 1992; UN, 1993; World Bank, 1991 [7,9,10].

aVehicles include cars, buses and trucks.

tally clean vehicles, cleaner fuels, effective

transport controls and improved traffic management appear to be the most promising approach
to controlling vehicle pollutant emissions. These
measures should be reinforced by effective regulatory pricing and taxation policies, sound land
use planning and the provision of environmentally sound public transportation systems [8]. As
shown in Table 4 there are four broad approaches
to reduce motor vehicle emissions: (i) improvements in vehicle technology including modifications to existing vehicles and inspection/maintenance (I/M) programs, to comply with appropriate emission standards, (ii) use of fuels that reduce mass emissions or result in less reactive
emissions, (iii> transport control and management
measures and (iv) improvements
in urban
transport infrastructure. These approaches may
be classified into two categories of specific pollution reduction options: those that limit emissions
per unit of travel (vehicle-km) and those that
influence travel behavior.
Many of these measures (alternative fuels,
transport control measures, traffic management,
mass transit improvements)
have already been
implemented
in several metropolitan
areas in
Latin America over the last 2 decades (Sao Paulo

and Santiago are notable examples). Brazil has

the most extensive and comprehensive experience
with the use of alcohol (from sugar cane) and
alcohol-blended fuels. This experience, while environmentally
beneficial, has been economically
costly. Several other countries have introduced
lead free gasoline and low-sulfur diesel. Mexico
has embarked on one of the most comprehensive
and ambitious programs in the world to combat
motor vehicle pollution in Mexico City. Initial
results are encouraging and a massive reduction
in pollutant emissions from motor vehicles is expected over time.
Based on the Latin American
experience,
among the most cost-effective and promising options are: (i) I/M programs combined with engine replacement and vehicle scrappage schemes
to remove gross polluters from the vehicle fleet,
(ii) use of reformulated and alternative fuels which
can be targeted with appropriate price incentives
at non-compliance
areas, with fuel properties
modified to accommodate seasonal and geographical variations and characteristics of in-use vehicles and (iii) traffic management
and urban
transport infrastructure improvements. The accumulated experience with vehicular pollution control measures in Brazil, Chile and Mexico repre-

A. Faiz et al. / The Science

of the Total Environment

169 (1995)

303-310

Table 4
Strategies for reducing motor vehicle air pollution
Component

Measures to limit emissions per

vehicle-km

Measures to influence travel

behavior

Vehicle

Emission standards and related

emission control technology
New vehicles (differentiated by
light duty, medium duty and
heavy duty)
Retrofit:
catalytic converters,
LPG/CNG,
engine replacement/overhaul,
fuel economy standards
Inspection/maintenance (I/M)
Passenger cars
Heavy-duty vehicles
Vehicle registration system
High-use vehicle replacement
Taxis/combis/minibuses/buses
Trucks

Vehicle ownership tax

Vehicle scrappage incentives
Level and structure of taxes
on new vehicles
Duties on imported vehicles

Fuel

Fuel standards
Leaded gasoline
Unleaded gasoline
Diesel fuel
Vapor recovery
Reformulated/oxygenated
Alternative fuels

Fuel prices
Absolute level
Relative prices:
Unleaded/leaded;
Diesel/LPG/CNG/
Gasoline

Urban transport and

road infrastructure

fuels

Bus policy
Regulation/liberalization
Route restructuring
Bus sizes
Motive power
Rationalization of truck sizes
Truck routes/bans/freight
centers
Traffic system management
Traffic signal improvements
Traffic smoothing
Road construction
Paving in marginal suburban
areas
Missing links
Truck routes/by-passes
High occupancy vehicle
(HOV) lanes

Segregated transit
Metro/light
Rail/commuter
Rail/busways/bikeways
High-quality bus services
Park and ride/kiss and ride
Integrated route/fare systems
Environmental truck licensing
Night-time delivery
User fees
Traffic management
Taxi stands
parking mangement
and enforcement
Traffic information
systems
Traffic calming
Speed regulation and
Enforcement

309

310

A. Faiz et al. /The

Science of the Total Environment

169 (1995) 303-310

Table 1 (Continued)
Component

Measures to limit emissions per

vehicle-km

Measures to influence travel

behavior

Demand
management

Subsidies
Automatic vehicle identification (AVI)
system for toll collection
Electronic road pricing

Congestion tolls (roads and

bridges)
Area traffic bans
Area licensing
Pricing/environmental
licensing
Fuel pricing
Vehicle emissions tax
Vehicle ownership tax
Parking regulation and pricing
Public transport fares and
subsidies
Institutional car/van pooling
Variable working hours
Land use planning and
controls
Pedestrian zones/bikeways

sents a storehouse of practical knowledge and

experience from which other countries in the
region could benefit as they proceed with programs to control air pollution from motor vehicles.
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