Discrete

Probability
Distributions
Chapter 6

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Learning Objectives

LO6-1 Identify the characteristics of a probability

distribution.
LO6-2 Distinguish between discrete and continuous
random variables.
LO6-3 Compute the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of a discrete probability distribution.
LO6-4 Explain the assumptions of the binomial distribution
and apply it to calculate probabilities.
LO6-5 Explain the assumptions of the Poisson distribution
and apply it to calculate probabilities.

6-2

LO6-1 Identify the characteristics

of a probability distribution.

What is a Probability Distribution?

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION A listing of all the outcomes
of an experiment and the probability associated with each
outcome.

6-3

LO6-1

Characteristics of a Probability
Distribution
The probability of a particular outcome is between 0
and 1 inclusive.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive events.
The list is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities
of the various events is equal to 1.

6-4

LO6-1

Probability Distribution - Example

Experiment: Toss a coin three times. Observe the number of
heads.
The possible experimental outcomes are: zero heads, one
head, two heads, and three heads.

What is the probability distribution for the number of heads?

6-5

LO6-1

Probability Distribution: Number of

Heads in 3 Tosses of a Coin

6-6

LO6-2 Distinguish between discrete

and continuous random variables.

Random Variables
RANDOM VARIABLE A quantity resulting from an
experiment that, by chance, can assume different values.

6-7

LO6-2

Types of Random Variables

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable that
can assume only certain clearly separated values. It is
usually the result of counting something.
CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable
that can assume an infinite number of values within a given
range. It is usually the result of some type of measurement.

6-8

LO6-2

Discrete Random Variable

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable that can
assume only certain clearly separated values. It is usually the
result of counting something.
EXAMPLES:
The number of students in a class
The number of children in a family
The number of cars entering a carwash in a hour
The number of home mortgages approved by
Coastal Federal Bank last week

6-9

LO6-3 Compute the mean, variance, and standard

deviation of a discrete probability distribution.

The Mean of a Discrete Probability

Distribution
The mean is a typical value used to represent
the central location of a probability distribution.
The mean of a probability distribution is also
referred to as its expected value.

6-10

LO6-3

The Mean of a Discrete

Probability Distribution - Example
John Ragsdale sells new cars for Pelican
Ford. John usually sells the largest number
of cars on Saturday. He has developed the
following probability distribution for the
number of cars he expects to sell on a
particular Saturday.

6-11

LO6-3

The Mean of a Discrete

Probability Distribution - Example

6-12

LO6-3

The Variance and Standard

Deviation of a Discrete Probability
Distribution
Measures the amount of spread in a distribution.

The computational steps are:

1. Subtract the mean from each value, and square this
difference.
2. Multiply each squared difference by its probability.
3. Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance.

6-13

LO6-3

The Variance and Standard

Deviation of a Discrete Probability
Distribution - Example

2 1.290 1.136
6-14

LO6-4 Explain the assumptions of the binomial

distribution and apply it to calculate probabilities.

Binomial Probability Distribution

A widely occurring discrete probability distribution

Characteristics of a binomial probability distribution:
There are only two possible outcomes on a
particular trial of an experiment.
The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
The random variable is the result of counts.
Each trial is independent of any other trial.

6-15

LO6-4

Characteristics of a Binomial
Probability Experiment

The outcome of each trial is classified into one of two

mutually exclusive categoriesa success or a
failure.

The random variable, x, is the number of successes

in a fixed number of trials.

The probability of success and failure stay the

same for each trial.

The trials are independent, meaning that the

outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of
any other trial.
6-16

LO6-4

Binomial Probability Formula

6-17

LO6-4

Binomial Probability - Example

There are five flights
daily from Pittsburgh via
US Airways into the
Bradford
Regional
Airport. Suppose the
probability that any flight
arrives late is 0.20.
What is the probability
that none of the flights
are late today?
Recall: 0! = 1, and, any
variable with a 0 exponent
is equal to one.
6-18

LO6-4

Binomial Distribution Probability

The probabilities for each
value of the random
variable, number of late
flights (0 through 5), can
be calculated to create
the
entire
binomial
probability distribution.

6-19

LO6-4

Mean and Variance of a

Binomial Distribution
Knowing the number of trials, n, and the probability of
a success, , for a binomial distribution, we can
compute the mean and variance of the distribution.

6-20

LO6-4

Mean and Variance of a

Binomial Distribution - Example
For
the
example
regarding the number of
late flights, recall that
=.20 and n = 5.
What is the average
number of late flights?
What is the variance of
the number of late
flights?

6-21

LO6-4

Binomial Probability Distributions

Tables
Cumulative Binomial probability distributions can be listed in
tables. The calculations have already been done. In the
table below, the binomial distributions for n0 trials, and the
different values of the probability of success are listed.
n = 10

p=
r=0
1
2
3
4

0.10
1.0000
.6513
.2639
.0702
.0128

0.15
1.0000
.8031
.4557
.1798
.0500

.20
1.0000
.8926
.6242
.3222
.1209

0.25
1.0000
.9437
.7560
.4744
.2241

0.30
1.0000
.9718
.8507
.6172
.3504

0.35
1.0000
.9865
.9140
.7384
.4862

0.40
1.0000
.9940
.9536
.8327
.6177

0.45
1.0000
.9975
.9767
.9004
.7430

0.50
1.0000
.9990
.9893
.9453
.8281

5
6
7
8
9

.0016
.0001

.0099
.0014
.0001

.0328
.0064
.0009
.0001

.0781
.0197
.0035
.0004

.1503
.0473
.0106
.0016
.0001

.2485
.0949
.0260
.0048
.0005

.3669
.1662
.0548
.0123
.0017

.4956
.2616
.1020
.0274
.0045

.6230
.3770
.1719
.0547
.0107

.0001

.0003

.0010

10

6-22

LO6-4

Binomial Probability Distribution

Tables Example
Fifteen percent of the worm gears produced by an automatic, highspeed Carter-Bell milling machine are defective.
What is the probability that out of 10 gears selected at random
none will be defective? Exactly one? Exactly three? More than
four? Less than six?
n = 10

p=
r=0
1
2
3
4

0.10
1.0000
.6513
.2639
.0702
.0128

0.15
1.0000
.8031
.4557
.1798
.0500

.20
1.0000
.8926
.6242
.3222
.1209

0.25
1.0000
.9437
.7560
.4744
.2241

0.30
1.0000
.9718
.8507
.6172
.3504

0.35
1.0000
.9865
.9140
.7384
.4862

0.40
1.0000
.9940
.9536
.8327
.6177

0.45
1.0000
.9975
.9767
.9004
.7430

0.50
1.0000
.9990
.9893
.9453
.8281

5
6
7
8
9

.0016
.0001

.0099
.0014
.0001

.0328
.0064
.0009
.0001

.0781
.0197
.0035
.0004

.1503
.0473
.0106
.0016
.0001

.2485
.0949
.0260
.0048
.0005

.3669
.1662
.0548
.0123
.0017

.4956
.2616
.1020
.0274
.0045

.6230
.3770
.1719
.0547
.0107

.0001

.0003

.0010

10

6-23

LO6-4

Binomial Shapes or Skewness for

Varying and n=10
The shape of a binomial distribution changes as n and change.

6-24

LO6-4

Binomial Shapes or Skewness for

Constant and Varying n

6-25

LO6-4

Binomial Probability Distributions

Excel Example
A study by the Illinois
Department
of
Transportation
showed
that 76.2 percent of front
seat occupants used seat
belts. If a sample of 12
cars traveling on a
highway are selected, the
binomial
probability
distribution of cars with
front
seat
occupants
using seat belts can be
calculated as shown.
6-26

LO6-4

Binomial Probability Distributions

Excel Example
What is the probability the
front seat occupants in
exactly 7 of the 12
vehicles are wearing seat
belts?

6-27

LO6-4

Cumulative Binomial Probability

Distributions Excel Example
What is the probability
the
front
seat
occupants in at least
7 of the 12 vehicles
are
wearing
seat
belts?

6-28

LO6-6 Explain the assumptions of the Poisson

distribution and apply it to calculate probabilities.

Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson probability distribution describes
the number of times some event occurs during a
specified interval. The interval may be time,
distance, area, or volume.
Assumptions of the Poisson Distribution:
The probability is proportional to the length of the
interval.
The intervals are independent.

6-29

LO6-6

Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson probability distribution is characterized by
the number of times an event happens during some
interval or continuum.
Examples:
The number of misspelled words per page in a
newspaper
The number of calls per hour received by Dyson
Vacuum Cleaner Company
The number of vehicles sold per day at Hyatt Buick
GMC in Durham, North Carolina
The number of goals scored in a college soccer game

6-30

LO6-6

Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson distribution can be described mathematically
by the formula:

6-31

LO6-6

Poisson Probability Distribution

The mean number of successes, , can

be determined in Poisson situations by
n, where n is the number of trials and
the probability of a success.

The variance of the Poisson distribution

is also equal to n .
6-32

LO6-6

Poisson Probability Distribution

Example
Assume baggage is rarely lost by Northwest Airlines.
Suppose a random sample of 1,000 flights shows a total
of 300 bags were lost. Thus, the arithmetic mean number
of lost bags per flight is 0.3 (300/1,000). If the number of
lost bags per flight follows a Poisson distribution with u =
0.3, find the probability of not losing any bags.

6-33

LO6-6

Poisson Probability Distribution

Table Example
Recall from the previous illustration that the number of lost bags
follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 0.3. A table can be used
to find the cumulative probability that no bags will be lost on a
particular flight. What is the probability no bag will be lost on a
particular flight?
m
r=0
1
2
3
4

5
6
7

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0000
.0952
.0047
.0002

1.0000
.1813
.0175
.0011
.0001

1.0000
. 2592
.0369
.0036
.0003

1.0000
.3297
.0616
.0079
.0008

1.0000
.3935
.0902
.0144
.0018

1.0000
.4512
.1219
.0231
.0034

1.0000
.5034
.1558
.0341
.0058

1.0000
.5507
.1912
.0474
.0091

1.0000
.5934
.2275
.0629
.0135

1.0000
.6321
.2642
.0803
.0190

.0001

.0002

.0004

.0008
.0001

.0014
.0002

.0003
.0023

.0037
.0006
.0001

6-34

LO6-6

More About the Poisson Probability

Distribution
The Poisson probability distribution is always positively skewed and
the random variable has no specific upper limit.
The Poisson distribution for the lost bags illustration, where =0.3,
is highly skewed.
As becomes larger, the Poisson distribution becomes more
symmetrical.

6-35