Introduction

Pam Am Flight 759, operated by a Boeing 727-235, a regularly scheduled

passenger flight from Miami to San Diego with en route stops in New Orleans and
Las Vegas began its take off from runway 10 at the New Orleanss international
airport in Kenner. During the time of take-off, National Transportation Safety
Board (NTSB) not only reported that that wind conditions were gusty, variable
and swirling, but also widespread of shower over the east end of the airport on
the aircrafts intended take off path. Findings by NTSB attributed the cause of the
rapid descent of the plane during take-off to microburst induced wind shear due
to the severe weather. A few years later, researchers from University of Dayton
Research institute (UDRI) performed a more detailed analysis and concluded that
rainfall had played a part in addition to the microburst. This consequently
resulted in the aircraft striking the trees about 2376 feet at the end of runway 10
and crashed [1]. Microburst-induced wind shear which imposed a downdraft and
a decreasing headwind rendered the pilots inability to react during the
circumstance, leading to their failure to bring the plane under control. Further
analysis of data a few years after the accident accompanied by several
evidences substantiating the presence of heavy rainfall at the time of the
accident, had shown to also cause roughening of the wing surface analogous to
ice or frosts, imposing a detrimental effect on the aerodynamic forces generated
by the aircraft such as reduction in lift and increase in drag that aggravated the
situation.
Despite microburst being concluded by NTSB as the primary factor contributing
to the crash of the aircraft based on this case study, this report aims to perform a
detailed study of the effect of microburst-induced wind shear and heavy rainfall
as the secondary factor on aircraft stability and control, from the time of lift off
until the aircraft impacted the ground.
Wind Shear/Microburst Analysis
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was the body
responsible for performing analysis on surface and low-level wind, and their
involvement in the accident.
Analysis of the satellite data, weather radar data and precipitation patterns
showed a VIP level 3 (:STRONG) echo directly over the airport at the time of the
accident. The shape and action of this echo was similar to those observed in
association with microburst. Based on the available data, the NOAA concluded
that Flight 759 flew through the centre of a convectively generated downdraft
shortly after lift-off. An analysis of the aircrafts flight data recorder strongly
supports the conclusion that the downdraft was a weak to moderate microburst.
A separate analysis conducted and funded by Pan Am also strongly supports the
existence of a microburst in the vicinity of the airport at the time of the accident.
Airplane Performance Analysis

The NOAA and Pan Am wind analyses indicated that Flight 759 flew through a
microburst and encountered, in rapid succession, an increasing headwind, a
downdraft, and then an increasing tailwind. To analyse the effects of these
rapidly changing wind or the flight path of an airplane, the following forces which
acts on the airplane must be considered: lift, drag, weight, and thrust. In a
dynamic situation, changes in the lift and the drag are most significant because
they depend at any instant on the airplane's relative wind vector.
When the airplane flies into a vertical wind, the angular change in the direction
of the total wind vector, with respect to the airplane's path relative to the
ground, changes the angle of attack which causes a change in both lift and drag.
If the vertical wind's direction is downward, angle of attack is reduced and the lift
and drag will decrease causing the airplane to accelerate downward. The basic
stability of the airplane will cause it to pitch up initially; however, the ultimate
effect on the airplane's flight path will be an increase in the descent rate relative
to the ground. When an airplane flies into an area where the direction of the
horizontal wind changes abruptly, the indicated airspeed will change. The
change is equivalent to the abrupt change in the relative wind. Both lift and drag
will also change abruptly and thus produce an imbalance in the forces acting
along the airplane's longitudinal and vertical axes. If the airplane flies into an
increasing headwind, the relative wind will increase. The indicated airspeed, lift,
and drag will increase; the airplane's nose will pitch up; and the vertical speed
will change in the positive direction. If the airplane flies into a decreasing
headwind, the effect will be the opposite. The indicated airspeed will decrease,
lift will decrease, the airplane's nose will pitch down, and the vertical speed will
change in the negative direction.