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Abstract Arab Spring can be considered as one of the most remarkable events
in the history of world politics. On December 18, 2010, a Tunisian young protestor
burned himself in a public square of the city. This event triggered probably one
of the most chaotic and long term uprisings in the Middle East. From the day of
its initiation until the present, Arab Spring in the Middle East created unstable
political situation and several uprisings. In this chapter, we will first give general
information about chaos theory, and then we will examine the butterfly effect
created by the Tunisian young protestor and process of Arab Spring in the Middle
East regarding its extend and form in those countries within the framework of
chaos theory. For the first part of this chapter, the spark created by the Tunisian
young protestor and its effects can be analyzed under butterfly effect perspective
within chaos theory, arguing whether the events followed each other consecutively
or randomly. The question is whether the incidents following each other have
reasonable links of causality to one another, or the events defining the phenomena
known as Arab Spring have no predictable reasons and outcomes regardless of
S.N.
Akaln ()
Department of the International Relations, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
e-mail: suaynilhan@gmail.com
C.A. Blcek
Department of History, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey
e-mail: cemalb@bilkent.edu.tr
S. Banerjee et al. (eds.), Chaos Theory in Politics, Understanding
Complex Systems, DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-8691-1__3,
Springer ScienceCBusiness Media Dordrecht 2014
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the regional, social and political differences. The events caused the collapse of the
regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya; they had very serious outcomes.
However, current approaches generally fail in defining the panorama clearly,
which does not help in finding a way out. The change started with young protestors
rushing the streets and resulted in a completely new order, which resulted in
somewhat greater turmoil in these countries, which was somewhat unpredictable
through chain of causality. From the beginning to the end of the butterfly effect,
an analysis of present day situation raised the unpredictability to a new level. With
the help of chaos theory, which has lately but very usefully revealed itself in social
studies, phenomena of Arab Spring is observed for discovering whether it is a new
beginning for Middle Eastern countries with consecutive and predictable outcomes,
or is a path to a much more devastating Arab Winter just knocking the door.
Keywords Arab spring Chaos theory Egypt Syria International relations
theory Social media Interdependency
3.1 Introduction
Twenty-first century will always be remarkable for the international events within.
Although humanity did not experience a third world war, conflict and war became
much more apparent in daily life within different forms. Emerging security threats
are not unknown to human experience, but particularly the events in Tunisia, Egypt
and other countries are completely new for us. Some journalist and scholars claim
that events in those countries are not unique. It is more or less a simple fight for
freedom; however it happened at an unexpected time and place. Then Arab Spring
as a new concept entered our life. The term Arab Spring has a framework both
have positive connotations and at the same time certain shortcomings for defining
the panorama in the Middle East recently. Surely triggered by a number of motives,
countries, governments and people were under intense pressure created by the social
and political events of this framework. Ordinary newspaper readers or those who
follow TV broadcast or social media became properly informed that the term Arab
Spring suggests certain social and political events such as uprisings and rebellious
attempts to overthrow existing governments, following a path to liberal democratic
values and virtues that hardly have existed in the Middle East for decades.
In as much as change became eminent, perceptions of the old-established regimes
in the Middle East seemed dramatically changed, or to be more accurate, people
realized they can change the fate of their country. This was a general perception and
from bottom to top demonstrations determined the demise of the Middle Eastern
dictatorial governments. This was a civil leap from the traditional international
desire of stability to a new desire of democratic change. In other words, what was
called stability in the Middle East no more found an echo in the international
society and lost receiving of international support. The lead of the international
decision taking was the U.S. interests which no longer could tolerate the dictatorial
regimes in the Middle East. The U.S. President Barack Obama is seen as a supporter
of this change, who changed the fate of social uprisings unexpectedly high.
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The term Arab Spring cannot perfectly summarize this unexpected chain
of events in the Middle East, since the territories realizing the change were not
populated by uniform motivated and locked on Arab people only. Foreign Policy
writer Marc Lynch coined the term probably because he was inspired by the
terminology used to define and describe regenerations such as Prague Spring
of 1968 and the Revolutions of 1989, probably the word spring, instead of
another seasonal nomination, is chosen to create positive indication and a sense
of rejuvenation at the social and political levels. The leaders of the demonstrations
have many state and non-state rivals and opposing counterparts. This explanation
may seem naive, but indeed, regarding the various political and social motives
in the realm of turmoil, the situation represented a lesser of the two evils case. Once
the uprisings started and spread through Northern Africa, Arabian Peninsula and
the Gulf, various and countless opposing groups, political parties, armed guerrilla,
social organizations, states armed forces, etc. either divided apart from each other
or united as different fronts in order to obtain strength and political power in a
cloudy and misty social environment.
The Tunisian protests were the ignition. In first sense, burning himself of
Muhammed Bauzazi named ordinary uprising in Tunisia however it was more
than that. It is only kind of trigger of coming events. Protests were getting bigger
and violently day by day. Not so long time, in January 2011 President Zine El
Abidine Ben Ali had to resign his office after 13 years of dictatorship. There was
no expectation protesting and even Zine El Abidines resignation would spread to
other Arab countries. Egypt, Libya and Yemen followed Tunisian protests, almost
imitating the nature of that original demonstration. Once more, events surprised
whole world. By inspiration from Tunisia, the first month of 2011 was the scene
of unforgettable uprising through whole Arab country. Tahrir Square of Egypt and
city of Tripoli of Libya showed that Arab people have an intense desire for their
freedom. Arab Spring can be considered, still arguably, as a Big Bang of long years
reasons of corruption, poverty, inequality and oppression of authoritarian regimes.
The reasons behind Arab Spring are diverse and in a sense unique to each country;
however, the outcomes are similar to each other. Essentially, there was agreement
that the elements of vulnerability include a lethal combination of poverty, lack of
economic opportunity, and a repressive and disliked regime [5].
Not only domestic factors which encouraged Arab Spring but also various
perspectives of global stability in explanation of Arab Spring. In August 2010,
the Obama administration made a foreign policy shift towards the Middle East,
quitted supporting dictatorial stability, encouraged democracy and establishment of
democratic governments in the Arab world. Short term stability was creating a big
obstacle in front of long term stability which can only be achieved through liberal
democracy, fair elections, overthrowing the existing dictatorial regimes and replacing them with more tolerable and negotiable governments which represents their
peoples and acting in accordance with the needs and wishes of their societies. This
plan would create (and so created) a suitable atmosphere and a safe realm for ultimate and long term U.S. interests in the region. Political openness and democratic
governance meant integration to the democratic league of states, which was led
by the U.S. Thus, from the stability perspective, Obama administration decided to
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support change and transition rather than mere stability in order to achieve long-term
stronger stability for serving its interests in the Middle East. Dictatorial stability,
however, aimed to restrain any change at the expense of interest of their wealth,
government comprehension, military pressure on the society and untouchability.
So, as the diversity of reasons indicates, here we are talking about nineteen
different Arab countries where protest and uprising happened regardless of their
size and effectiveness. Among these countries, effect of Arab Spring has been felt
in different levels. As we mentioned in first paragraph some of countries regimes
were overthrown by protestors especially these were the biggest ones. On the other
hand, some countries protesting were eliminated with changing government or
partial reforms such as UAE and Algeria. Some countries like Bahrain still suffered
from on-going protest and uprising. Unfortunately, Syria is the worst case because
the uprisings turned into civil war and number of casualties has increased day by
day. We can argue that Egypt has a special position within these countries because
although there is transition government, there are still huge protest against Mursi
who is the new president of Egypt.
There are many studies carried out and works been done about the nature and
progress of Arab Spring; however, this paper is intending to analyze Arab Spring
and its complex nature within the frame of chaos theory.
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group of states, conscious of certain common interests and common values and he
argued that the goal of preserving the sovereignty of each state has often clashed
with the common interest in preserving the balance of power [8]. Bull continued
with that time to in order to maintain order, justice was sacrificed. He gave example
as a sacrificing of Polish independence and attitude of LON in Abyssinia case. Also,
Bull claim that ideas on justice can be differentiated by each state but they all can
agree to maintain order. : : : purpose of international society is to promote order in
human society as a whole [8].
Constructivism also accepts realism argument of anarchical structure of international system with one exception. In famous words, anarchy what state makes of
it. In other words, constructivists claim that this anarchical system has been made
by actors and primarily states. On the other hand, Marxism suggests emancipation
from international order as a only way to survive. Mainly, as all we know
existed international order is the source of conflict thats why transforming the
international order is necessary. So, Marxism focuses on not only order itself but
also transforming order too.
So, order was sometimes used by opposite of anarchy, sometimes it was used
as indispensable element of international relations in different theories. Order as
a notion and its forms have been used in various different theories however, we just
want to draw a kind of frame which shows hoe field of IR discussed order. It is
obvious that conventional theories of IR are so limited to explain complexity and
dynamic structure of international system with terms of order, anarchy and disorder
and most of the time some of terms are used interchangeably but with different
meanings and implications. However, today international relations and its actors
have much more interdependence than they used to have. Also, globalization is the
most influenced on system, today individuals become separate actors and social
media is another stronger actor in the system or order what you call. In other words,
today we can talk about millions of actor and supranational power-social media
which mean international system has now tight network with many independent
and dependent variable. The fuel of globalization reshaped the structure and terms
naturally. It is obvious that international system should be analyzed more deep
and complex way thats why the next section of this chapter will provide general
framework of chaos theory and its possible application on international relations.
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was fostered after invention of computers because they made easier to calculate
formulates. Early formulation of chaos was done by Lorenz. Interestingly, he found
chaos theory when he was trying to make weather prediction in 1961. Through
his analysis attempt, he noticed that even the minor differences in initial conditions
give completely different results. For example, he started to calculate with 0.506 and
then he changed as 0,506921 as an initial condition. It would be completely different
result in weather prediction. In other words, Lorenz noticed that this small amount
of changing and its effect will be huge in the system. So, chaos is very dependent on
its initial conditions it famously called butterfly effect which suggest that flutter
of butterflys wing in Beijing can be responsible for producing hurricane in South
America [12]. The sensitive dependence on initial conditions shows how a small
change at one place or moment in a nonlinear system can led to large differences to
a later state in the system.
This sensitiveness would lead two important features of chaotic systems which
are variety and unpredictability [7]. So, primary units-individuals can have wide
range effect on the system. On the contrary, we cannot say every primary unit will
have wide range effect on the systems. Although millions of primary units interact
each other at the same time, it would turn into storm.
In the case of international relations and chaos theory is not completely new
there are only few peoples to interest in. Most of workings are about analyzing
of international system as a chaotic environment. Diana Richards is the first who
suggested chaotic dynamics in international system in her A Chaotic Model of
Power Concentration in the international system. Richards make analyze with
Modelskis cycle theory and sea power and conclude that evolution of power is
chaotic process [9, 10]. Furthermore, Kissane described elements of chaotic international system and chaos as an alternative theory to explain nature of international
system. Kissane describe three elements of chaotic international system which are
nature of international system is chaotic, security seeking and interaction between
actors. According to Kissane, it is surely impossible to account for the actions of
every human on the planet and the implications of all of their actions on the wider
system, yet a chaotic system, by definition, is one in which such small permutations
at the individual level can affect the entire system and all other actors within it [6]
: : : the theorist has to make a choice as to which actors or level of inter-dependence
they will restrict their analysis to : : : [However] while it is necessary for the sake of
a comprehensible theory that the number and nature of the actors assessed is limited,
it is also antithetical to the chaotic approach to exclude actors, which may have a
significant effect on events in the system, so arbitrarily [7].
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Decision takers or manipulators behind the scene, either they are forerunners of
demonstrations and their ideologues or state and non-state actors and secret services,
can hardly be sure of the outcomes of their actions. The panorama of the events and
their outcomes are not orderly and predictable. This, however, is an observable and
understandable series of events only if one admits that it is at a level of controlled
chaos and intermingled complexity. The complex nature at the very beginning is
seen and easily observed: the butterfly effect created by a 26 year-old Tunisian
man, Mohamed Bouazizi, an unemployed graduate, who was selling vegetables for
earning his life, set him on fire in the middle of a crowd because local police seized
his cart. The reason of the seizure was that he had no permit to sell vegetables. His
reaction to this confiscation is understood today is the trigger of whatever happened
through the timeline of Arab Spring demonstrations. Tunisian people protested
against the government, crying off their anger so long they kept inside. This scene
is at the first glance as depicted above.
Nonetheless, there is a part to be analyzed a little deeper, and by refraining
from making superficial first-impression analysis. Tunisia, for a long time through
its history, is known as an undemocratic country, whose predominantly Muslim
population was under severe pressure by the government, however much pressure
can be observed at every aspect of social and religious life; such times were sadly
realized, people neither could practice their sacred duties and nor could use religious
wearing such as headscarf publicly, and public communities and meetings were
intensely followed by the angry eye of the state. Economic and social life was not at
a desired level of wealth and stability in Tunisia. Therefore, the daily life has long
witnessed such incidents like confiscations of carts and beating, violence, unemployment, random arrests, cruel activities of police officers, torture etc., and were
commonplace in Tunisia. As Bouazizis self-immolation happened as a result of one
of these usual everyday happenings, the reason behind the scene should be examined
thoroughly. Bouazizis quite noteworthy protest appeared on the news both local
and international, for sure. The self immolation protest happened on 17 December
2010 and Tunisian government has been overthrown on 16 January 2011, Tunisian
president Zine el Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia by way of Malta. Everything
happened in a months time. Sure it is a quite short time for a regime change.
If the scene is understood as appeared on the news bulletins, a man burning
himself can cause a regime change. In a thorough analysis, one can find out that the
plot is set for this quick and easy path to overthrow a government which had been
untouchable for decades. One explanation is the background preparation of public
opinion towards such a change: in Assanges Wikileaks documents, Tunisia in the
eyes of the U.S. was full of negative indications. These were leaked accidentally as
the official story told us. Apart from the accidental nature of the documents, they
indicated that either the U.S. support or distant stance meant much for international
and domestic public opinions. Tunisian youth and any person who had access to
news, social media and internet services became sure of that their government
lacked enough international, and more importantly the U.S., support for applying
such a pressure on the society. The invulnerability of Tunisian dictatorship collapsed
in the social psychological level.
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Not only Tunisia but also Egypt, Libya and other Arab Spring countries has their
own timeline and story. Maybe today, we can say that Egypt and Syria become the
unique. Egypt experienced coup detat in 2013 summer and Syria has still suffered
from civil war for almost 2 years. Unfortunately, these two countries and other
countries did not give any hope for democratic transition or democratic country
in the future.
Classical theories of international relations seems not enough to describe what
happened and what will be happened in those countries. Also, nature and evolution
of uprisings revolution? did not same with old experience of countries. World
never experienced such a complicated, chaotic and interdependent protests. Also,
no one really can predict or guide future of those countries. Thats why, in this
paper we would analyze Arab Spring with chaos theory in four main assumptions
of chaos theory (1) international system as a Chaotic system (2) butterfly effect in
Arab Spring (3) Interdependence in Arab Spring (4) Edge of the chaos generate
better and new system or not.
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consider Arab Spring in the light of map of chaotic international system which
generally described Dylan Kissane. It will be helpful to understand uniqueness of
Arab Spring for region and world. So, the first step of analyzing is Arab Spring
occurred still continue in the chaotic international system which suggests actors are
more interdependent and interact each other, while seeking security.
As report mentioned, political sphere in Arab region became one of the main reason
behind uprisings. Most of the Arab countries have lived under the situation of
state of emergency which makes much more strong government authorities. So,
suffering from political authorities become first and one of the main reasons behind
uprisings.
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Second reason is the economic conditions in the Arab region. We can say that
oil exporters countries have better conditions. There have been different economic
patterns in the region. It is hard to generalize economic conditions, for example,
Algeria is rich in oil and gas but the first protesters shouted We want sugars! [2].
Furthermore, IMFs report on economies in the Middle East and North Africa draw
pessimistic frame, some of points were given in the below;
Over the course of the previous three decades, the growth of GDP in the region averaged only 3 percent, while the GDP in the rest of developing world grew at 0f 45
percent : : : (2012)
The number of jobs grew 2 percent annually between 2000 and 2007. Overall, unemployment in countries for which data are available- Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Tunisia
hovered between 10 and 12 percent. (2012)
Not only political atmosphere in the region but also economic situation show how
Arab people have lived poor conditions. Unemployment rate has been increasing
while growth rate of GDP per capita are decreasing. Also, it should be remembered
that Tunisia was the worst countries which affected from 2008 economic crisis.
Third reason is directly related with other two reasons which is food crisis. As
we mentioned in the economic conditions, food crisis became so obvious and even
it reached to level of scarcity. Gelvin pointed out that Japanese investment bank
Nomura prepared list of 25 countries that would be crushed in a food crisis, of
course the Arab world dominated the list. Tunisia was in the number 18, Libya at
16, Sudan at eight, Egypt at six, Lebanon at five, Algeria at three and Morocco at two
[2]. We can say that unexpected climate change drought in Syria and unbalanced
and wrong economic policies in the country. In 2007, for example, when prices
began to climb, bread riots spread throughout the region, from Morocco and Algeria
to Yemen, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria [2].
Authoritarian political atmosphere, poverty, unemployment, poor life standards,
non humanitarian treatment towards people characterized protesters life in the Arab
region. We can say that, in some countries such as Libya and Egypt this type of
life unfortunately continued even 50 years and more. So, reasons behind uprisings
did go back at least 50 years ago. We can say that long term negative aggregation
of Arab people resulted in massive and unexpected (still questionable for whom?)
protests and then regime change.
Regarding butterfly effect and chaos theory, compare to other analysis for Arab
Spring we pointed out deep reasons which were long term unemployment, poverty
and food crisis were the initial points of the protest. Now we can say that Arab
Spring cannot be demoted to Bouzazis burned himself. He was just a symbol
of initial conditions and will be sparkle for Arab peoples how they image their
future. Most importantly, how and why Arab peoples demands changed from their
initial conditions until today. In other words, Arab people started protests because
of poverty and food crisis but their demands shifted towards political demands of
democracy and human rights. Third part of our analyzing will show off how their
demands shifted to political ones with the interdependence in chaos theory.
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in chaos itself. It repeated itself millions time and affect systems, in our case using
of social media by youth protestors create its own new network and it is a repeated
procedure for too many times by too many users. So, it led to a high interdependency
between actors even it push states as a main actor to take action.
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liberal economic policies while there has been limited political reforms even it was
getting authoritarian day by day. Since 1967 except assassination of Anwar Sadat,
Egypt lived under Emergency Law Rule which led to seize of police and army
power and censorship on press become legalized, there was no word for human
rights. Also, during his 30 years of rule, opposition groups members such as Muslim
Brotherhood have been pressurized and prisoned. Of course in such a regime, riots
and unrest was not new, during his regime many times Egyptians made huge protests
because of economic reasons.
His overthrown just after 18 days later protests began. However it was not end bad
days of Egypt. For chaos theory, the peak point of protests in Egypt was completely
considered as edge of chaos. As same as system in the physics, in the edge of the
chaos system will be ready for new system. Protests turned into revolution towards
more democratic and open society. In other words, Egypt was ready to have better
and new political system. Muslim Brotherhood founded a political party called
freedom and justice party and in 2012 election Mursi who is the leader of Muslim
Brotherhood became president of Egypt. Unfortunately, 3 July 2013 coup detat
ended the term of Mursis presidency the first democratic election of Egypt. It
made Egypt is one of the unique country because as we expected paralleling to edge
of chaos first Egypt have fair and democratic elections as Egyptians expected, then
again coup detat which is completely chaotic situation for Egypt. Today, Egypt has
suffered from mass protests and different than society was divided into two groups
supporters of Mursi and anti ones. In other words, Egypt is more worse situation
during Arab Spring. Thus, Egypt seems again put itself in new edge chaos, we will
see how the new system will be shaped.
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will always support Asad, and remain as a great bulwark in front of the West when
the willingness of the West to get rid of Asad immediately reached at its climax.
Russia is not willingly dividing the world into two in a Cold War fashion over
the Syrian dispute. Rouhani and those who think like him are desperately right.
Since Putin managed two international political movements amazingly successfully.
One is using the weak hand of Obama administration, which was an overall
unwillingness to deal with Syria in terms of military intervention (that is obvious in
the atmosphere of the Congress which could not give support to Obama that made
the situation uneasy for him to take the responsibility on himself of the military
intervention). Secondly, Putin not only appeared as the savior of Obama in offering a
peaceful non-intervention solution, but also firmly and clearly denounced the use of
chemical weapons and made Asad to come by him on that matter. How the latter did
happened? Simply, Asad was expected to welcome the international law at home and
freed from execution. The U.N seen as the body of international law and regulations
was set free on whatever they might observe in Syria. This shows that Putin was one
who understood the possible advantage of the braking of the parallel and linear flow
right within the correct time, which can be taken into account as a true bifurcation
point in the chaotic universe.
Turkey, from the very beginning of the problem, appeared on the humanitarian
side of the issue. However, supporting both the opposition openly and directly and
the refugees running away from the war in their hometowns, Turkey was a side from
the initial days of the conflict and did not seek for any ultimate political goal in the
environment after Asad. The issue of Turkeys search for a role in the reconstruction
of Syria in the possible post-Asad period is not a crucial matter for its international
strategy. Both prime minister Erdogan and President Gul declared the aim of Turkey
as bringing an end to murder. However, Turkey did not apply to the changes
soon afterwards, which was a chaotic crisis management and a realm of political
movements. The case of Egypt was another failure of Turkish political adaptation
to immediate events. Turkey supported the Muslim Brotherhood and Mursi from
the very beginning. After 1 year of administration, Mursi failed in dealing with the
deeply and strongly established regime and particularly its military branch. A coup
detat finalized the Mursi administration. In Egypt, as a matter of fact, the army
controlled almost everything even the economy through its enterprises. An annual
U.S financial support and the military technology transfer were regular advantages
of the army. Besides, a long lasting Israeli support to the Armed forces of Egypt
is a debated issue. With all the given parameters, as long as Mursis efforts in
establishing democracy in Egypt were peaceful and a part of a long-term political
agenda, it was destined to fail eventually. In comparison to whatever we see from
Asad, instant, sudden and unrestrained political actions seem to be more successful
than waiting for peaceful evolution. Back to Turkeys stance, the policy was doomed
to fail to expect from a very fresh democracy to change the old established regime,
ruled and protected by Mubarak for decades, once and automatically. This did not
work, so did not the support for the West including Turkey for newly established
Egyptian democracy.
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Chaos theory with specific logical sequences and certain peculiar equations can
explain social and political phenomena as far as modeling them within structuralist
explanations. Therefore, Arab Spring, aftermath, turmoil and ongoing civil wars
can be fit into various schemes quite well. If we take into account the explanations
of chain reactions within already established schemes and put the bifurcation
points wherever necessary, we might not somehow manage to put forward sensible
explanations to actual events. However, as obviously seen in the irresponsible
use of chemical bombs, irrational and unreasonable acts might somehow end up
into advantageous positions for those who merely desired to create more terror.
There is not enough evidence to prove that decision takers like Asad intentionally
used the chemical bomb to change the flow at his advantage. This looked like a
desperate act of an already uncredited leader in the international arena. Surprisingly
enough, the recent situation reveals the fact that Asad indeed released from US
intervention by using that bomb. This rather unusual leap from a desperately
disadvantageous position to an advantageous relief is better to be explained by a
global power transition: an equation which is constituted by two main variables
we all are acquainted with throughout the Cold War period, namely the U.S. and
Russia. Arab spring, therefore, is in a way not a regional phenomenon, indeed,
a systematical scheme for global powers, a quite applicable one to any pattern
related to power transition. For Mursi, what was wrong is expecting an idealistic
betterment of his country, but forgetting the fact that the change initiated in Tahrir
Square resembled disorder and chaos. Change for Egypt, Tunisia and the rest was
not initiated by orderly manner. What is missing at the understanding of the idealist
leaders like Mursi is found in chaos theory and its application into international
politics. Although unintentionally, the events that seem to happen all of a sudden
in a particular time may either lead to desired or undesired situations. For resetting
the political (or economical, social) universe, destructing the motives or parameters
that continue their existence according to physical the law of inertia should be
interrupted for changing the flow of events. Thus happened in Syria. International
political decision takers, as long as they seek for a sustainable peace in every
disputed part of the world, may somehow act as their policies become divergent,
including the options that may appear provoking. Chaos management has a negative
side which appears as an image of problem solution by creating a bigger problem.
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