Transforming cities

Visions of a better future

Summary of a meeting hosted by The Rockefeller Foundation

Corporations realize that the mega-cities of the future are big economic opportunities.
The destinies of cities and corporations are intertwined.
Haripasad Hegde, global head of operations, Wipro

With insights from

Foreword
In August 2013, The Rockefeller Foundation hosted The Future of Transforming Cities,
the first in a series of high-level meetings focused on strengthening the Foundations
work toward its dual goals: advancing more equitable growth by expanding opportunity
worldwide, and building greater resilience by helping people, communities and
institutions prepare for, withstand and emerge stronger from acute shocks and chronic
stresses. The Foundation works in four domains to achieve these goals, and those
constitute the themes of the meetings: improving cities, ecosystems, health and
livelihoods. By bringing together diverse, sometimes clashing perspectives to explore
future trends and to develop microscenarios, the organizers hope to fortify humanitys
ability to anticipate and adapt to trends and challenges. For more information on the
series, please go to www.visionariesunbound.com.
The meeting, held from August 27-30 at the Foundations Bellagio Conference Center in
Italy, was convened by The Rockefeller Foundation and the University of Pennsylvanias
Institute for Urban Research. The Economist Intelligence Unit wrote this summary report
of the meeting in full, with the exception of the foreword and conclusion, which were
written by The Rockefeller Foundation.

Transforming Cities was convened by The Rockefeller Foundation and

University of Pennsylvanias Institute for Urban Research with support from
The Rockefeller Foundation

Malgorzata Kistryn / Shutterstock.com

De Visu / Shutterstock.com

Executive Summary

Transforming Cities
brought together more

Cities are fonts of ideas, opportunity, art and political

movements. But urban enclaves can also generate
inequality, epidemics and pollution. The rapid pace of
urbanization in the coming decades brings these and
other unprecedented opportunities and challenges
to the fore. Will cities lose their vibrant potential if the
challenges they face spiral out of control?

than 20 experts to
imagine a better
urban world.

Transforming cities

Increase in urban population

by major regions, 2011-2050
(percent of total urban increase)

2011-2050

Asia
Africa
Latin America, Caribbean
North America
Europe
Oceania

32.5
54.01
6.8
4.2

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,

Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

0.5

2.0

To explore these questions and spark creative solutions, the

discussion progressed from a focus on trends to microscenarios
(or mini-versions of the future), to concrete projects.

Short-termism
may not be a bad
thing, as long as
its driven by a
long-term vision.
It allows you to
implement, learn
and adapt rather
than being locked
into long-term plans
that are inflexible.
Robert Garris,
managing director,
The Rockefeller
Foundation

Cross-cutting takeaways with their focus areas include:

URGENCY:

LEADERSHIP:

INCENTIVES:

INNOVATION:

Social tension, climate shocks, a

rise in the youth population and
urban migration demand action.
It is important to identify and
align interests across sectors to
fix policy and market failures.

TIMING:

Short-term adaptable strategies

with a long-term vision can best
solve complex urban problems.

BROAD INVOLVEMENT:

Engaging all stakeholdersincluding the

eliteis necessary for lasting change.

EQUITY:

Livelihoods must be addressed,

through job creation and proentrepreneurship policies.

SOCIAL PROTESTS:

Social tension and social movements

can be disruptive; they can also
bring new opportunities.

MARKET FORCES:

Private-sector buy-in and

involvement are critical.

Transforming cities

Strong leadership is necessary

to champion ideas and develop
trust and ownership.
Creativity is critical to spark the
unexpected and develop breakthroughs.

PLANNING:

Advance design of mass transit,

water, sanitation and road networks is
generally desirable. But encouraging
and responding to organic, communitydriven urban growth by retrofitting existing
areas can foster urban resiliency.

INFORMATION:

New ways to collect and leverage

data can empower and enrich local
communities. But protecting the
privacy and proprietary interests of
individuals and businesses is critical.

SCALE:

Current solutions can be standardized

and scaled up to broaden benefits for
all, but only through collaboration and
alignment of interests between public,
private and civil society organizations.

Trends, microscenarios
and future solutions
Participants first explored seven overlapping trends they believed will
most influence cities in the coming 15 years, as well as their causes and
effects, and deep interconnections. For example, poor planning and
short-termism often cause a failure of governments to address longterm issues, increasing vulnerability to climate shocks. Decentralization
and grassroots action and division within the city were both often
caused by a combination of shrinking livelihood options, growing income
inequality, and poor public service provision. Finally, while the trends of rapidly
expanding access to information technology and big data will enable new
and improved public service delivery and a more active citizenry, an abundance
of data will also lead to privacy and ownership issues ultimately leading to yet
another trend social protest.
Small groups next developed three microscenarios, or mini-versions of the future
around three of the most prominent trends Division within the city, poor planning
and short-termism, and vulnerability to climate shocks. Division within the city
pointed to the lack of shared vision, insecure livelihoods, rising land prices, the
privatization of public spaces and services, and a weak public will to address
these issues as causes. Poor planning and short-termism explored how scarce
resources, unpredictable impacts from climate change, and mass migration into
cities will overwhelm urban planners. Vulnerability to climate shocks predicted
more extreme weather, disruptive events, displaced people, rising insurance costs,
food insecurity, urban migration and water scarcity as likely future consequences
and on the positive side, the birth of an urban resilience industry.
Finally, participants collaborated on group projects to help cities prepare for
future trends. For example, the decentralization of public services through
projects such as rainwater harvesting, urban farming or portable toilets can
empower and enrich informal settlements. Access to public data about
the consumption of basic public goods in slums can help city managers,
entrepreneurs and communities make informed decisions. Using rooftops for
galleries, greenhouses, playgrounds and artists studios can help solve the land
shortage problem. Finally, using land for the public good to create more green
space and to maximize the efficiency of a dense and unplanned inner-city is
critical for the success of the pilot city of Lusaka.

Transforming cities

The future of
transforming cities
Meeting participants

Left to right, top: Haripasad Hegde, James Goodman, Jonathon Porritt,

Stephanie Draper, Ashvin Dayal, Sameh Wahba, Jinsong Du, Yu Gao,
Alan Mabin and Amy Montgomery
Middle row: Steven Koonin, Karin Ireton, Twarath Sutabutr, Danny Zulu,
Vijay Vaitheeswaran, Alexander Keating and Solomon Prakash
Bottom row: Albert Chan, Robert Garris, Joan Clos, Eugnie Birch,
Sheela Patel, Susan Wachter, Carolyn Whelan, Ferdous Jahan,
Riva Froymovich, Claudia Juech and Nicholas K. Banda

Transforming cities

Andrey Gontarev / Shutterstock.com

Transforming Cities:
Visions of a better future

Introduction from The Rockefeller Foundation

An inclusive and
resilient city makes
economic sense.
Increased stresses on
the system bring about
increasingly creative
responses. These help
local governments
develop policies that
address divides and
halt urban decline.
Sameh Wahba,
sector manager,
Urban Development
and Resilience Unit,
World Bank

For more than 50 years, The Rockefeller Foundations conference center

in Bellagio, Italy, has sparked innovations that have helped avert major
global crises. The Green Revolution, which developed new ways to boost
agricultural production in poorer nations, was expanded to Asia over several
Bellagio meetings in the 1960s and 70s. The International AIDS Vaccine
Initiative, which incentivized research to develop a vaccine, was born at a
1994 meeting.
In August 2013, The Rockefeller Foundation hosted The Future of
Transforming Cities, the first in a series of high-level meetings devoted
to strengthening the Foundations work toward its dual goals: advancing
more equitable growth by expanding opportunity worldwide, and building
greater resilience by helping people, communities and institutions prepare
for, withstand and emerge stronger from acute shocks and chronic stresses.
The Foundation works in four domains to achieve these goals, and those
constitute the themes of the series of meetings: transforming cities, revaluing
ecosystems, advancing health and securing livelihoods. By bringing together
eclectic, sometimes clashing perspectives to explore future trends and to
develop microscenarios, the organizers hope to expand humanitys ability to
anticipate and adapt to trends and challenges. For more information on the
series, please go to www.visionariesunbound.com.

Transforming Cities
Cities are fonts of potential: They are laboratories of fresh ideas, dynamic markets
generating wealth and opportunity, places where music and the arts flourish, and
safe havens for persecuted people. But urban enclaves can also sow inequality,
blight, epidemics, panic and pollution. The rapid pace of urbanization in the
coming decades will bring these and other unprecedented challengesand
opportunitiesto the fore. Will cities lose their vibrant potential if the challenges
they face spiral out of control?

10

Transforming cities

Steep city growth

Africa
903 33,004 41,511 53,310 68,699 86,568 107,750
134,220
165,659
33,004 41,511
53,310 68,699
86,568 107,750
165,659
203,383
244,732 Africa288,402 903 340,303
400,651
470,827
551,552 134,220
203,383
244,732
288,402
340,303
400,651
470,827
551,552
642,423
744,485
858,242
983,327
1,119,192
Africa
903 33,004
41,511 53,310
68,699 86,568
107,750 1,264,629
134,220
165,659
642,423
744,485
858,242
983,327
1,119,192
1,264,629
Africa
903
33,004
41,511
53,310
68,699
86,568
107,750
134,220
165,659
203,383
244,732
288,402
340,303
400,651
470,827
551,552
203,383 858,242
244,732 983,327
288,402 1,119,192
340,303 1,264,629
400,651
470,827
551,552
642,423
744,485
642,423
744,485
858,242
983,327
1,119,192
1,264,629
Africa
903 196,891
214,010
233,419
255,217
281,580
312,568
196,891
214,010
233,419
255,217
281,580
312,568
348,583
389,617 Africa431,904 903 476,198
522,699
570,817
621,583
348,583
621,583
674,489
726,647
774,635 389,617
817,562 431,904
854,848 476,198
886,234 522,699
910,632 570,817
Africa
903 196,891
214,010
233,419
255,217
281,580
312,568
674,489
726,647
774,635
817,562
854,848
886,234
Africa
903
196,891
214,010
233,419
255,217
281,580910,632
312,568
926,970
Africa
903
33,004 41,511
53,310
68,699
86,568
107,750
134,220
165,659
348,583
389,617
431,904
476,198
522,699
570,817
621,583
Africa
903
33,004
41,511
53,310
68,699
86,568
107,750
134,220
165,659
926,970
348,583
389,617 340,303
431,904 400,651
476,198 470,827
522,699 551,552
570,817
621,583
203,383
244,732
674,489
726,647
774,635
203,383 288,402
244,732 817,562
288,402 854,848
340,303 886,234
400,651 910,632
470,827
551,552
674,489 858,242
726,647 983,327
774,635 1,119,192
817,562 1,264,629
854,848
886,234
910,632
642,423
744,485
926,970
642,423
744,485
858,242
983,327
1,119,192
1,264,629
926,970

Asia
935 245,052
297,970
359,955
431,115
505,669
245,052
297,970
359,955
431,115
505,669
598,088
715,234 Asia 865,113 935 1,032,275
1,206,138
1,392,232
598,088
1,392,232
1,614,359
1,847,733
2,082,161715,234
2,304,715865,113
2,512,0331,032,275
2,702,5251,206,138
Asia
935 245,052
297,970
359,955
431,115
505,669
1,614,359
1,847,733
2,082,161
2,304,715
2,512,033
2,702,525
Asia
935
245,052
505,669
2,875,874
3,180,227
3,309,694
598,088 3,034,947
715,234
865,113
1,032,275 297,970
1,206,138 359,955
1,392,232 431,115
2,875,874
3,034,947
3,180,227
3,309,694
598,088
715,234
865,113
1,032,275
1,206,138
1,392,232
1,614,359
1,847,733
2,082,161
2,304,715
2,512,033
2,702,525
1,614,359 3,180,227
1,847,733 3,309,694
2,082,161
2,304,715
2,512,033
2,702,525
2,875,874
3,034,947
2,875,874 1,251,323
3,034,947 1,347,728
3,180,227 1,455,071
3,309,694 1,629,324
Asia
935 1,158,337
1,158,337 2,264,308
1,251,323 2,326,813
1,347,728
1,455,071
1,629,324
1,794,968
1,922,352Asia 2,041,737935 2,167,206
1,794,968
2,326,813
2,330,633
2,316,519
2,293,3211,922,352
2,260,8052,041,737
2,218,0972,167,206
2,165,2162,264,308
Asia
935 1,158,337
1,251,323
1,347,728
1,455,071
1,629,324
2,330,633
2,316,519
2,293,321
2,260,805
2,218,097
2,165,216
Asia
935
1,158,337
1,251,323
1,347,728
1,455,071
1,629,324
Asia
935
245,052
297,970
359,955
431,115
505,669
2,102,362
2,026,017
1,935,230
1,832,526
Asia
935
245,052
297,970
359,955
431,115
505,669
1,794,968
1,922,352
2,041,737
2,167,206
2,264,308
2,326,813
2,102,362865,113
2,026,0171,032,275
1,935,2301,206,138
1,832,5261,392,232
1,794,968
1,922,352
2,041,737
2,167,206
2,264,308
2,326,813
598,088
715,234
598,088 2,293,321
715,234 2,260,805
865,113 2,218,097
1,032,2752,165,216
1,206,138
1,392,232
2,330,633
2,316,519
2,330,633
2,316,519
2,293,321
2,260,805
2,218,097
2,165,216
1,614,359
1,847,733
1,614,3592,082,161
1,847,7332,304,715
2,082,1612,512,033
2,304,7152,702,525
2,512,033
2,702,525
2,102,362
2,026,017
1,935,230
1,832,526
2,102,362
2,026,017
1,935,230
1,832,526
2,875,874
3,034,947
2,875,8743,180,227
3,034,9473,309,694
3,180,227
3,309,694

Urban and rural population by major regions, 1950-2050 (millions)

Urban

Africa
348,583
674,489
926,970

903 Africa
196,891
214,010
903
196,891 233,419
214,010 255,217
233,419 281,580
255,217 312,568
281,580
312,568
389,617
348,583 431,904
389,617 476,198
431,904 522,699
476,198 570,817
522,699 621,583
570,817
621,583
726,647
674,489 774,635
726,647 817,562
774,635 854,848
817,562 886,234
854,848 910,632
886,234
910,632
926,970

1400
1400
1200
1200

Africa

1000
1400
1000
1200
800

400
600
200
200
400
0
0
200

2500
3000
2000
2000
1500
2500
1500
2000
1000

2010

2050

Europe

600
600Europe
234,970
207,473
157,460

500
500
600
400
400
500
300
300
400
200
200
300

147,332157,460137,598147,332128,216137,598

500
500
600
400
400
500

400
500
300
300
400
200

300
300
400
200
200
300

200
300
100
100
200
0

2010

2050

Northern America
905 109,667
125,350
142,856
157,787
Northern America
905 109,667228,607125,350247,911142,856
157,787
170,691
178,973
188,118
199,457
212,088
170,691
178,973
188,118
199,457
212,088
228,607
247,911
265,611
282,480
298,961
314,905
330,040
344,444
358,154
Northern383,770
America
905 109,667
125,350
142,856
157,787
265,611
282,480
298,961
314,905
330,040
344,444
358,154
371,234
395,985
America
109,667
125,350
142,856
157,787
170,691
178,973 Northern
188,118
199,457 905
212,088
228,607
247,911
371,234
383,770
395,985
170,691
178,973
188,118
199,457
212,088
247,911
265,611
314,905
330,040
344,444
358,154 228,607
Northern
America 282,480 905 298,961
61,948
61,610
61,461
61,437
265,611
282,480
298,961
314,905 61,610330,040 61,461344,444 61,437358,154
Northern
America
905
61,948
371,234
383,770
395,985
60,594
63,387
66,336
67,622
69,074
67,142
65,378
371,234
383,770
395,985
60,594
63,387
66,336
67,622
69,074
67,142
65,378
63,621
62,049
60,677
59,488
58,432
57,213
55,792
America
905 61,948
61,610
61,461
61,437
63,621
62,049
60,677
59,488
58,432
57,213
55,792
54,233Northern52,578
50,878
America
61,948
61,610
61,461
61,437
60,594
63,387 Northern
66,336
67,622 905
69,074
67,142
65,378
54,233
52,578
50,878
65,378
63,621
62,049 60,59460,677 63,38759,488 66,33658,432 67,62257,213 69,07455,792 67,142
62,049
60,677
59,488
58,432
57,213
55,792
54,233 America
52,578 63,621
50,878109,667
Northern
905
125,350
142,856
157,787
Northern
America
905
109,667
125,350
142,856
157,787
54,233
52,578
50,878
170,691
178,973 170,691
188,118 178,973
199,457 188,118
212,088 199,457
228,607 212,088
247,911 228,607
247,911
265,611
282,480 265,611
298,961 282,480
314,905 298,961
330,040 314,905
344,444 330,040
358,154 344,444
358,154
371,234
383,770 371,234
395,985 383,770
395,985

905 America
61,948
61,610
61,461 61,610
61,437 61,461
Northern
905 61,948
61,437
66,336 63,387
67,622 66,336
69,074 67,622
67,142 69,074
65,378 67,142
60,594
65,378
60,677 62,049
59,488 60,677
58,432 59,488
57,213 58,432
55,792 57,213
63,621
55,792
50,878 52,578
54,233
50,878

2010

0
100

1950

2010

2050

Latin America and the Caribbean

700
700
600
600
700
500
500
600
400
400
500
300
300
400
200
200
300
100
100
200
0
0
100

1950

2010

2050

2010

2050

Oceania
909 7,907 9,177 10,580 12,085
13,891
15,447
16,384
909 25,857
7,907 9,177
10,580 29,825
12,08531,75813,891
15,447
16,384
17,603 19,056
20,486 Oceania
21,924
23,619
27,852
21,924
23,619
25,857 27,852
29,825 31,758
33,614 35,379
37,079 17,603
38,73719,056
40,346 20,486
Oceania
909
7,90735,379
9,177 10,580
16,384
33,614
37,079 12,085
38,737 13,891
40,346 15,447
Oceania
90923,619
7,907
9,177
10,580
16,384
17,603 19,056 909 20,486
21,924 5,193
27,852 12,085
29,825 13,891
31,758 15,447
Oceania
4,769 4,988
5,40125,857
5,615
6,042
17,603
19,0569,91340,346
20,486
21,924
23,619
25,857
29,8256,042
31,758
Oceania
909 4,76911,503
4,988 12,230
5,193 12,894
5,401 27,852
5,615
35,379 7,91137,079
38,737
6,58633,6147,288
8,558
9,206
10,736
35,379
38,7379,20640,346
6,586
7,288
7,911 8,558
9,913 10,736
11,503 12,230
12,894
13,482
13,987
14,39633,614
14,698
14,88737,079
Oceania
909
4,76913,987
4,988 14,396
5,193 14,698
5,401 14,887
5,615
6,042
13,482
Oceania
909 10,736
4,769 4,988
6,042
6,586
7,288
7,911
8,558 9,206 9,913
11,503 5,193
12,230 5,401
12,894 5,615
6,586
7,288
7,911 8,558 9,206 9,913 10,736
11,503 12,230
12,894
13,482
13,987
14,396
14,698
14,887
13,482
13,987
14,396
14,698
14,887

North America
450
450
450
America
450
400 Northern
60,594
63,387
400
63,621
62,049
52,578
400 54,233 400
350
350
350
450
450
350
300
300
400
400
300
300
250
250
350
350
250
250
200
200
300
300
200
200
150
150
250
250
150
150
100
100
200
200
100
100
50
50
150
150
50
50
0
0
1000
100
1950 0

3000
3500
2500
2500
3000
2000
2000
2500
1500

Latin
America and the CaribbeanLatin
904 69,264 86,841 108,540
134,588
163,402
America
and the 311,620
Caribbean
904 69,264
86,841 108,540
134,588
163,402
196,257
232,955
271,280
352,614
393,619
430,379
Latin
196,257
232,955
271,280
311,620
352,614
393,619
430,379
465,246
499,460
531,235
560,030
585,347
607,050
625,144
Latin
America and
the Caribbean
904
69,264 86,841
108,540
134,588
465,246 and the
499,460
560,030
585,347163,402
607,050
625,144
639,626
650,479
America
Caribbean 531,235
904
69,264
86,841
108,540
134,588
163,402
232,955
352,614
393,619
430,379
Latin196,257
639,626271,280
650,479311,620
196,257
232,955
271,280
311,620
352,614
393,619
430,379
465,246
499,460Latin 531,235
560,030
585,347
607,050
625,144
America
and the Caribbean
904 98,104
104,866
111,519
118,017
465,246
499,460
531,235
560,030
585,347
607,050
625,144
America
and
the
Caribbean
904
98,104
104,866
111,519
118,017
639,626 126,816
650,479 129,371
122,975
131,114
131,411
130,033
127,810
Latin
639,626
650,479
122,975
126,816
129,371
131,114
131,411
130,033
127,810
126,659
124,836
122,977
120,947
118,748
116,260
113,258
Latin
America and
the Caribbean
904
98,104 104,866
111,519
118,017
126,659
124,836
120,947
118,748
116,260
109,604
100,476
America
and the
Caribbean 122,977
904 98,104
104,866
111,519
118,017113,258
122,975 105,302
126,816
130,033
127,810
109,604129,371
105,302131,114
100,476131,411
122,975
126,816
129,371
131,114 116,260
131,411 113,258
130,033
127,810
Latin
Latin 122,977
126,659
124,836
120,947
118,748
126,659
124,836
122,977108,540
113,258
America
Caribbean
904
69,264 86,841
America100,476
and the
Caribbean
904 120,947
69,264 134,588
86,841 118,748
108,540163,402116,260
134,588
163,402
109,604and the105,302
196,257
232,955109,604
271,280105,302
196,257
232,955311,620100,476
271,280352,614311,620393,619352,614430,379393,619
430,379
465,246
499,460465,246
531,235499,460560,030531,235585,347560,030607,050585,347625,144607,050
625,144
639,626
650,479639,626
650,479
Latin
Latin
America and the Caribbean
904Caribbean
98,104 104,866904 111,519
America and the
98,104 104,866118,017111,519
118,017
122,975
126,816122,975
129,371126,816131,114129,371131,411131,114130,033131,411127,810130,033
127,810
126,659
124,836126,659
122,977124,836120,947122,977118,748120,947116,260118,748113,258116,260
113,258
109,604
105,302109,604
100,476105,302
100,476

500
700
500
600
400

100
100
100
100
200
200
0
0
0
0
100 1950100
0

128,216

1,251,323
935
1,158,3371,347,728
1,251,3231,455,071
1,347,7281,629,324
1,455,071
1,629,324
2,326,813
2,165,216

Asia
3000

500
1000
0
0
500

700
700
600
600

600
908 266,685
264,152
Europe
908 266,685259,456264,152253,217259,456243,679253,217
243,679
226,551234,970221,415226,551217,514221,415215,866217,514212,232215,866
212,232
600
201,588207,473194,536201,588186,592194,536177,591186,592167,739177,591
167,739

935 Asia
1,158,337

1500
2000
1000
1000
1500
500
500
1000
0
0
500

1000
1500
500

Europe
908 280,602
311,084
344,397
380,373
412,199
Europe
908
280,602 511,556
311,084 514,545
344,397
380,373
412,199
441,153
466,318
485,384
502,983
441,153
466,318
485,384
502,983
511,556
514,545
523,263
547,531
557,585
566,299
573,494
Europe 536,611
908 523,263
280,602
311,084
344,397
380,373
412,199
536,611
579,462
588,431 908
591,041
Europe
280,602547,531
311,084557,585
344,397566,299
380,373573,494
412,199
441,153 584,494
466,318
579,462485,384
584,494502,983
588,431511,556
591,041514,545
441,153
466,318
485,384
502,983
511,556
514,545
523,263
536,611
547,531
557,585
566,299
573,494
Europe
908 266,685
264,152
259,456
523,263 588,431
536,611 591,041
547,531 253,217
557,585 243,679
566,299
573,494
579,462
584,494
Europe
908
266,685 215,866
264,152 212,232
259,456
253,217
243,679
234,970
226,551 579,462
221,415 584,494
217,514
588,431
591,041
234,970
226,551
221,415
217,514
215,866
212,232
207,473
194,536
186,592
177,591
167,739
Europe 201,588
908 207,473
266,685
264,152
259,456
253,217
243,679
201,588
157,460
137,598 908
128,216
Europe
266,685194,536
264,152186,592
259,456177,591
253,217167,739
243,679
234,970 147,332
226,551
157,460221,415
147,332217,514
137,598215,866
128,216212,232
234,970
226,551
221,415
217,514
215,866
212,232
207,473
201,588
194,536
186,592
177,591
167,739
Europe
908 207,473
280,602
311,084
344,397311,084
380,373344,397
412,199380,373
Europe
908 280,602
201,588
194,536
186,592
177,591
167,739 412,199
157,460
147,332
137,598
128,216
441,153
466,318157,460
441,153485,384147,332
466,318502,983137,598
485,384511,556128,216
502,983514,545511,556
514,545
523,263
536,611523,263547,531536,611557,585547,531566,299557,585573,494566,299
573,494
579,462
584,494579,462588,431584,494591,041588,431
591,041

1950

Asia

1,794,968
1,922,352
1,794,9682,041,737
1,922,3522,167,206
2,041,7372,264,308
2,167,2062,326,813
2,264,308
3500 2,330,633
3500
2,316,519
2,330,6332,293,321
2,316,5192,260,805
2,293,3212,218,097
2,260,8052,165,216
2,218,097
2,026,017
2,102,3621,935,230
2,026,0171,832,526
1,935,230
1,832,526
35002,102,3623500

3000
3000
3500
2500

1000
1200
800
800
1000
600
600
800
400
400
600
200
200
400
0
0
200

800
1000
600
600
800
400

Rural

1400
1400
1200
1200
1400
1000

2050

Oceania

45 Oceania
909Oceania
7,907 9,177 10,580
909 12,085
7,907 9,17713,891
10,580 15,447
12,085 16,384
13,891
15,447
16,384
45
17,603 19,056
20,486
21,924 20,486
23,619
25,857
17,603 19,056
21,924 27,852
23,619 29,825
25,85731,758
27,852
29,825 31,758
33,614 38,737
35,379 40,346
37,079
38,737
40,346
4533,614 35,379 4537,079
Oceania
909Oceania
4,769 4,988
5,193 4,7695,401
6,042 5,615
909
4,9885,6155,193
5,401
6,042
40 6,586
7,288 40
7,911
9,206 9,913
11,503
6,5868,558 7,288
7,91110,736
8,558 9,206
9,91312,230
10,736 12,894
11,503 12,230
12,894
13,482 14,698
13,987 14,887
14,396
14,698
14,887
4013,482 13,9874014,396
35
35
45
45
35
35
30
30
40
40
30
30
25
25
35
35
25
25
20
20
30
30
20
20
15
15
25
25
15
15
10
10
20
20
10
10
5
5
155
15
5
0
0
100
10
0 1950

50

50

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

Transforming cities

11

This is an issue requiring urgent resolution. For most of human history, the world
has been overwhelmingly rural. But the population balance tipped toward cities
just five years ago. Now the urban population in developing economies is slated to
jump to 5.1 billion by 2050 from 2.7 million in 2011. Upwardly spiraling population
growth will exacerbate existing urban problems and create a host of new ones.

Lets transform the

paradigm. Dont be
driven by the current
context. Be playful
and analytic.
Judith Rodin, president,
The Rockefeller
Foundation

Without profound and lasting solutions to these problems, the worlds great cities
and others on the cusp of greatnessare likely to decline. That decline could end
the promise of the game-changing intellectual, economic, technological and social
solutions historically born in cities. The very foundation of social progress is at risk.
As we add 2 billion more people to the world, urban centers are swelling at
the seams, warned Judith Rodin, The Rockefeller Foundations president,
at the meetings opening. This presents enormous opportunities. But urban
trends are accelerating inequality and urban degradation. We need to reimagine
neighborhoods, public spaces, transit, governance and pro-poor housing so that
they are more resilient to shocks and stresses. We need a refreshed model.
The more than 20 experts from government, industry, academia and activist
groups who gathered in Bellagio arrived eager to explore future trends, to lay the
groundwork for more equitable and resilient cities in the future. The rich mix of
participants included Sheela Patel, founder of Indias Society for the Promotion of
Area Resource Centers (SPARC); Albert Chan, an architect and director of planning
and development at Shui on Land with deep experience developing Chinas ecocities; Karin Ireton, a South African affordable-housing innovator and director of
sustainability at Standard Bank; Professor Steven Koonin, an urban big data expert
and director for the Center of Urban Science and Progress at New York University;
and Dr. Joan Clos, executive director of UN-Habitat and former mayor of Barcelona.
(See a full list of participants at the end of the report.)

12

Transforming cities

Robert Garris, managing director of the Foundations Bellagio Programs, is

leading the event series. Eugnie Birch and Susan Wachter, professors and codirectors at the University of Pennsylvanias Institute for Urban Research, directed
the first meeting on cities. The Economist Intelligence Unit contributed a special
anthology of reprinted articles on urbanization from The Economist newspaper,
and Vijay Vaitheeswaran, the publications China business editor, led a wrapup session. Finally, Stephanie Draper, James Goodman and Jonathon Porritt,
of Forum for the Future (FFF), an organization with future visioning and scenario
development expertise, conducted valuable pre-meeting research, shaped the
agenda and facilitated the sessions. Midway through the meeting, a lunch with
participants from a joint project between the Bellagio Center and online innovators
community PopTech injected a fresh dose of energy with information about many
big data projects they are pursuing.
The participants identified and explored complex, interlinked trends to better
understand the trajectories of city and informal settlement development. They
examined the issues and opportunities in microscenarios, with an eye to shifting
urban trajectories for the better, and developed a number of new insights that
pushed forward thinking and action in urban planning and other fields. Participants
came up with four compelling projects to test and perhaps implement in the
months ahead. They also developed stronger relationships with other leaders that
could help them work toward enduring solutions for urban problems associated
with rising affluence, climate change and population growth.

Transforming cities

13

The conversation
Cities are a complex and dynamic mix of infrastructure, governing
bodies, ecosystems, processes and people. What will they be like
in 2025, and what can we do to shape them?
To tease out the problems and inspire fresh thinking about cities,
Forum for the Future proposed a series of three discussions:
Trends (momentous, trackable shifts), Microscenarios (miniversions of the future), and Future Solutions (aspirational, concrete
projects that apply new insights).

TRENDS

1. TRENDS
For a sense of how cities might evolve by 2025, participants first discussed
the most powerful urban trendspositive and negative. This vision, they
believed, would help identify future regulatory, financial, technological or human
interventions that might shift the urbanization trajectory.
Organizers started with 300 trends identified in pre-meeting interviews
with participants and narrowed them down to the 80 most oft-cited ones.
Futurescaper, an analytical tool developed at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, helped measure trends for frequency and correlation with other
trends. The link between food prices and social protest is one such example.
Clustered trends were then mapped for a visual sense of the intertwined and
linked drivers of urban problems, and their likely unintended consequences.
Participants next voted on and discussed their forecasts for the most powerful
trends, and their causes and effects. Their final selection and key insights follow
in their perceived order of impact.

16

Transforming cities

TRENDS

1. Poor planning/short-termism

In a resource-stretched and politically volatile world, governments will most likely

make decisions that solve urgent problems but fail to address long-term issues.
Causes will include rapid urbanization and poor governance. Effects will include
increased pressure on services and dysfunctional cities and housing markets.

2. Vulnerability to climate shocks

The Asian tsunami in 2004 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012 made visible the impact
of climate change on coastal cities. As the planets temperatures further rise, so
will the frequency and intensity of storms, floods, drought and heat waves. Among
the causes of cities vulnerability will be poor planning, short-term governance
time horizons and increased exposure as coastal urban populations grow. Effects
include infrastructure breakdown, business disruption and the marginalization of
the poor in increasingly vulnerable neighborhoods.

3. Decentralization and grassroots action

Many cities will provide insufficient or poor quality citywide public services. As a
response, affluent communities will meet their own security, water, energy, and
transportation needs through private sources. But, increasingly, poor urban
dwellers will do the same, as a response to public service failure. They will create
their own private alternatives to solve urban problems. The potentially positive side
effects of such local action will include more resilience and localism, and better
local governance. But weaker central planning may also be a consequence.

4. Division within the city

Many poor city dwellers will have few livelihood options. The flow of scarce municipal
resources to more affluent areas also means basic public services will rarely reach
those most in need. The response will often be unrest in underserved areas and
ambivalence in fenced-off pockets of affluence. This vicious cycle will diminish the
quality of public services such as mass transit and vital water, waste-collection and
power-provision services.

5. ICT/Access to information/Big data

Planners will increasingly harness data and analytics to fine-tune or deliver new
services. Insights gleaned may also fuel profound change through campaigns
or protests. Effects will include a more active citizenry, better local governance,
greater individualism, more opportunity for creative entrepreneurial activity, and
social protests. However, data will also present issues linked to ownership, privacy,
undesirable use of data and compensation for its use.

6. Social protest

Mass demonstrations in Brazil and Iran are just two recent examples of groups
harnessing an upswell of frustration through social media to push for change.
The causes are complex and varied. They include insecure livelihoods, autocratic
leaders, rising food prices, the poor quality of infrastructure and insufficient schools.
These movements may grow along with their key drivers. In response, new forms
of governance will emerge.

18

Transforming cities

MICROSCENARIOS

2. MICROSCENARIOS
To incubate ideas, participants transitioned into small-group microscenario
discussions. Developing these mini-visions of the future allowed participants
to analyze what works in cities today and to imagine what might materially
improve them if current trends intensify, wane or converge with powerful
emerging trends. Microscenarios also help inspire interventions to reshape
urban environments. Participants were urged to think creatively about ways
to design adaptable solutions, align stakeholder interests and leverage crosssectoral expertise and resources. These three microscenarios took shape by
blending overlapping elements from the seven trends first explored.

1. Division within the city:

KEY INSIGHT: Affluent and poor communities pursuing their own
needs through privatization and protests could create a tipping point
around governance and unleash greater entrepreneurial activity.
Eugnie Birch of UPenn noted the loss of a shared vision and the lack of a public will
to address common issues as causes of a growing urban divide. Joan Clos of UNHabitat added insecure livelihoods as a cause, and forecast more social unrest as
a consequence. Solomon Prakash, founder, Maya Organic and LabourNet pointed
to rising land prices and slum growth as effects; others anticipated more urban
fragmentation, migration, density and climate change vulnerability in poor areas.
Ashvin Dayal of The Rockefeller Foundation projected a further crumbling of public
services because the elite will no longer be stakeholders in these services.

Cities are not the

problemthey are
the pressure cooker.
Unrest in an urban area
has the potential to be
disruptive to a whole lot
of people.
Karin Ireton,
Standard Bank

The group expected the divide to grow in scope and intensity by 2025. They
recommended that planners focus on public service provision to reverse or reduce
the trend toward city division. Sameh Wahba of the World Bank said: [Sufficient]
land, housing, transportation and economic opportunities will be major determinants
of how cities function in the future. In the Middle East, its about access to jobs,
political voice and participation. In downturns, these divisions will be more acute.
Brazilian cities exploded despite 10 years of stellar poverty reduction.
To address income gaps caused by insecure livelihoods, participants proposed
urban job development programs and cottage industry. To more efficiently target
water and power pricing in poorer neighborhoods, they recommended devices
such as smart meters. To help resolve social inequalities, participants proposed
multi-sectoral collaboration on common pain points such as skills shortages and
poor health-services provision. In this regard, Mr Prakash highlighted industry
associations joining forces to address poor sanitary conditions. If its good for
business, its good for us, they say, he said, of poor sanitary conditions linked to
street vendors, which are often beyond government control.

Transforming cities

19

MICROSCENARIOS

Affluent and poor communities pursuing their own needs through privatization
and protests could create a tipping point around governance and unleash greater
entrepreneurial activity. Mr Dayal concluded: My optimistic view is that we reach
such a tipping point that the vision of the city changes.

2. Poor planning/short-termism:
KEY INSIGHT: Scarce resources, unknowns such as climate change and
mass migrations into cities will overwhelm existing city planning capacity.
This will result in urban sprawl, socio-economic segregation, environmental
degradation, anti-government sentiment and poor public services. Barriers to
longer-term planning will include complex and costly processes, entrenched
interests, and short election/political cycles. Other obstacles will include insufficient
data about citywide access to and consumption of basic public services to help
planners meet and anticipate needs.
To help counter a future of poor planning, the group proposed a number of possible
solutions. These included public data forums to collect, analyze and distribute
relevant urban data about the availability, cost and use of public services.
Such data could be used by independent think tanks to provide planning guidance.
New data would also help fairly price new or improved services perhaps in a
decentralized manner or on a smaller scale for informal settlements. Participants
also suggested innovative tax schemes, similar to a carbon tax, to manage and
appropriately price the use of water, vehicles and electricity based on demand and
consumption levels.

20

Transforming cities

MICROSCENARIOS

3. Climate shocks:
KEY INSIGHT: Effects could include a growing social divide, more crime,
unrest, and competition for safe land, but climate change might also spark
technological innovation and a new urban-resilience industry.
Participants anticipated little progress in reducing carbon-dioxide levels within
a decade. They expected more extreme weather, natural disasters, disruptive
events and displaced people as a consequence. The group pointed to rising
insurance costs, flooding, food insecurity, urban migration and water scarcity as
likely impacts, which would vary by region and income level. The developing world
would bear most human costs. Recurring climate shocks may prevent developing
cities from catching up, cautioned Vijay Vaitheeswaran of The Economist.
The secondary effects could include a growing social divide, more crime, unrest
and competition for safe land. But climate change might also spark technological
innovation and a new urban-resilience industry.
To prepare for and adapt to the inevitable changes wrought by climate change,
participants recommended better coordination between city, state and regional
officials before, during and after major weather-related incidents. To share ideas
about what worked in one region that might be applicable to another they proposed
global city networks. To minimize climate changes impact on buildings and
neighborhoods, participants recommended better climate-resilient building codes.
Finally, to help solve water scarcity, which is already under way due to warmer
temperatures, they proposed rainwater harvesting.

Transforming cities

21

FUTURE SOLUTIONS

3
The impact of the
informal economy is
extraordinary. It isnt just
large companies that are
providing communitysourced solutions.
Judith Rodin,
The Rockefeller Foundation

Resilience is about
enabling local
communities to respond
to shocks. They are
usually the first to lose
power and to suffer
from extreme weather
Sheela Patel, founder
director, Indias Society
for the Promotion of Area
Resource Centers

3. FUTURE SOLUTIONS
Groundbreaking solutions emerge from crises. By describing the contours of a
concrete problem, articulating current obstacles and efforts to overcome them,
and setting precise goals to achieve them, participants hoped to generate
creative ideas that might help solve problems today and serve as a launchpad
for powerful solutions tomorrow.
In the third portion of the event, participants formed small working groups
to brainstorm a solution to a specific problem, as a way to prepare for the
future scenarios they had sketched out earlier. They were urged to seek
transformative solutions that were material, multi-sectoral, replicable, scalable
and systemic, and that would bend the trend. After brainstorming, participants
were also asked to produce an action plan, with potential solutions, a road map
and a timeline.
The four projects aim to involve local communities and city and state authorities
in their implementation. They also make use of new data collection and analysis
methods, and seek alternatives to failed policy and market initiatives.

1. Power to the people:

Decentralized services for slums

Informal settlements suffer from poor access to basic services such as clean water, sanitation and electricity. Governments struggle to supply services to these
areas because they are perceived to be poorly planned, impenetrable and costly
places in which to install such services. This project, spearheaded by Sheela Patel
of SPARC, seeks to empower local communities through the decentralized delivery
of market-based technologies such as rainwater harvesting, urban farming and portable toilets. It harnesses locally collected data, aggregated purchasing power and
innovative micro-finance schemes to provide affordable, accessible and ecofriendly
services to many informal settlements.
Phase 1 will focus on encouraging communities to map their surroundings, collect
data and develop a viable business model with the help of utilities, governments
and foundations. The success of the project will be measured by the number of new
services provided, the prices paid for them, and carbon footprints.
Test sites in Lusaka, Bangalore, Bangladesh and Bangkok have been proposed.
Work has begun on measuring the amount of existing urban agriculture on slum
dwellers roofs across SPARCs global informal settlement network.

Transforming cities

23

SUCCESSFUL URBAN PROJECTS

Innovation is often viewed as an evolution, rather than a revolution. Many systems,

technologies, processes or approaches that help solve problems in one city today may
profoundly improve lives in other urban enclaves if transferred, in culturally sensitive and
appropriate ways that meet the needs of local communities. To identify high-potential
solutions and inspire fresh thinking for others, participants next singled out exisiting
projects in their own sphere. Many of these solutions, participants observed, succeeded
because they involved deep collaboration between several sectors:
Slum mapping in India as an advocacy and
investment tool.
Chinese farmers using rooftop solar panels to heat
their water and save energy costs. Poor dwelling
owners could earn additional income through a
rooftop leasing program.
Community toilet blocks for slums, which improve
sanitation, health and safety, especially for women
and the vulnerable.
A World Bankbacked integrated land-use project
in Rio de Janeiro, involving the transportation,
water, housing and environmental ministries, with
innovative incentives for local workers to use public
transport, to limit growth on the periphery.

iShacks:

Lighting Up a South African Township

Wood is a popular energy for cooking,
heating and lighting in many informal
settlements. But the use of wood, brush,
dung and other biomass materials as fuel
in traditional cookstoves causes more
deaths globally than either malaria or
AIDS, according to the United Nations.
The iShack may provide an innovative
alternative. The product is a complete
shack built in part from locally discarded
materials such as cardboard and Tetra
Pak boxes. Solar panels grace the roof,
supplying power for up to three lights, an

24

Transforming cities

outdoor motion director and a cell-phone

charger. The iShack was developed by
researchers at South Africas Stellenbosch
Universitys Sustainability Institute. In
2011, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
awarded the group a grant to build
100 such homes in a township outside
Stellenbosch. Developers believe this
type of small-scale innovation can bring
big returns to the more than 60% of
Sub-Saharan Africas urban residents in
informal settlements.

FUTURE SOLUTIONS

2. Public data forum for informal settlements

Citywide data exchange portal

Timely information about the cost, price, availability, consumption and reliability of
supply of basic public goods helps city managers, entrepreneurs and communities
make informed investment and implementation decisions. But the dearth of
data about rapidly growing slums in Africa and Asia means that they are often
overlooked and underserved. This project strives to create a centralized, citylevel data portal with information about public electricity, water, sanitation and
healthcare services in informal settlements. Through this, stakeholders can share
dynamic and real-time data and develop new policies, applications, services and
innovative business models.
Project backers include the Penn Institute for Urban Research, Wipro and other
Bangalore-based partners. Efforts are under way to form a consortium of businesses,
technology experts, local organizations and government officials. They hope to expand
the application of currently available data, and to identify data gaps.
Portal work will begin immediately in Bangalore via a project managed by Haripasad
Hegde, Wipros global head of operations. This project is about giving people and
organizations the information they need to build resilience and equity, and the
entrepreneurs the information they need to build solutions, said Robert Garris of
The Rockefeller Foundation.
Steven Koonin of NYU added that the data needs to be accessible, relevant,
transparent, timely, aggregated and granular. He believes the right data can
improve planning, policies and opportunities in the informal sector, and lead to new
services, products and more citizen engagement.

A lot of innovations are

happening based on
the survival strategies
of poor people in
cities. The bottom
40% is excluded. We
need to change our
management mindset
and systems delivery.
There are scalable
opportunities for
hundreds of millions
of people.
Haripasad Hegde, global
head of operations, Wipro

3. Rooftop Cities

Maximizing productive capacity of rooftops

More urban residents and rising spending power among the affluent in developing
cities have made urban land scarcer. Rooftops may be one of the solutions to
expand space within crowded cities, in particular in low-rise neighborhoods like
informal settlements.
For centuries, dense cities have used rooftops to gather, to garden and to store
goods; rooftops now host satellite dishes, solar panels and cisterns for rainwater
collection. Other possibilities include cafes, galleries, greenhouses, playgrounds
and artists studios.
The group aspires to increase space and livelihood opportunities by enabling citywide uptake and direction for rooftop development. Many rooftop projects could
be funded with the help of innovative financing schemes such as carbon offsets.

Transforming cities

25

The team also wants to develop pro-rooftop policies that encourage landlords and
tenants to team up with local entrepreneurs.

FUTURE SOLUTIONS

The way land is developed in many African cities is very wasteful, said rooftop
enthusiast Karin Ireton of South Africas Standard Bank. Sprawl should go up,
not out. Ms. Ireton is leading the project with Albert Chan of Shui on Land and
Mr. Dayal of The Rockefeller Foundation. Potential pilot project locations include
Bangkok, Lusaka, Ho Chin Minh City and Guangzhou. Several proofs of concept
already exist, including the Rizhao solar city in China (see below).
The team is also exploring ways to work with the United Nations Environment
Program and the finance and insurance industries to use rooftop development to
help cities become more resilient. The group also seeks champions pioneering
unconventional rooftop use, and is studying ways to collect relevant data for
baseline studies of existing rooftop use, and examining city tax, fiscal and specialuse zone codes.

Rizhao:

Chinas solar city

Few places have captured the suns power
more effectively than the coastal Chinese
city of Rizhao, which means City of
Sunshine. More than a decade ago, city
officials set a goal of becoming carbon
neutral by generating electricity from
rooftop and wall solar collectors rather than
coal-fired plants. Today, with the help of
local photovoltaic makers and academics,
the city of 3 million, in Northern China, has
nearly attained that goal. More than 99%
of households have solar-powered heaters
and almost all traffic signals and streetlights
are powered by photovoltaic cells. By 2007,

26

Transforming cities

the city had cut its energy consumption

by 30%, saving an estimated 52,860 tons
of carbon emissions annually. Rizhao has
become one of the top 10 Chinese cities
in air quality. A massive public-education
campaign was key to Rizhaos success.
Now all new buildings must include solar
heaters. Subsidies were also channeled to
research and development rather than to
end users, helping cut the price of solar
heaters to match that of conventional
heaters. Foreign investment in the city is
up substantially, too; businesses now flock
to Rizhao for cleantech insight.

FUTURE SOLUTIONS

Integrated land planning in Rio:

Keeping informal settlement at bay

How do you encourage people to live
in formal homes instead of in informal
settlements? Rio de Janeiro, Brazil,
is attempting to do just that with an
integrated territorial development project
that gives some help to its poorer
residents. One part of the solution is
linked to the Bilhete Unico, an unlimited
ticket for buses, subways, suburban

trains and ferries. A state subsidy caps

prices for poor households on the citys
periphery. By encouraging residents to
remain in formal homes with good access
to transportation, jobs and basic services,
the government hopes to decrease
the likelihood of slum growth in the city
center. The project is supported by a
$485 million loan from the World Bank.

4. Land for the public good

Optimizing land use decisions for stronger communities

Business is booming in Zambia, thanks to healthy demand for copper and other
metals. But that has led to rapid growth and overcrowding in the capital city of
Lusaka. The all-too-predictable result: urban sprawl, unmanageable congestion
and slums with few basic services and poor or nonexistent streets. Greater Lusaka
supports a population of 3.5 million around a city center designed for 8,000.
Through this project, urban experts helped guide Lusaka city officials at the meeting
toward extending the developed edges of the city to satellite cities, to create more

Transforming cities

27

FUTURE SOLUTIONS

28

Transforming cities

green space and to maximize the efficiency of the dense and unplanned inner-city.
Intense discussion about what works and doesnt work in developing cities helped
yield ideas for new roads and other infrastructure, with suggestions on how to
start or improve water and sanitation services before residents arrive. Challenges
they face and explored in the conversation include preserving the rights of existing
landowners on the citys periphery and developing mutually beneficial partnerships
with tribal communities. Strong leadership will help drive a solution in Lusaka since
the political will for change is high.
This project aims to unlock the citys inefficient land market and to revise land
management policies to create more jobs, better forms of shelter and stronger
communities. Initial work will focus on mapping the city, collecting household data,
modernizing the property land registration process, forming community groups, and
improving local finances, creditworthiness and the ability to access capital markets.
The Lusaka municipal government and the National Ministry for Local Government
and Housing are overseeing this project, with likely assistance from the World Bank
and UN-Habitat.

Conclusion
Thought leaders assembled at The Rockefeller Foundations Bellagio Center by
the Foundation, UPenn IUR, the Economist Intelligence Unit and Forum for the
Future were tasked with envisioning a different kind of urbanization. This future can
accommodate the estimated 2 billion people who will move to cities in the coming
decades, and do so in ways that build resilience and expand opportunities for their
most vulnerable residents.
As outlined in this report, powerful trends will shape cities over the next 15 years.
These include a diminishing long-term goal setting capacity, growing climate change
vulnerability, and sharper gaps between public and private goods delivery.
A new and innovative urban resiliency, shaped by long-term inspirational visions,
but drawing on decentralized, short-term, adaptable data-informed action with
overlapping collaboration between the public, business and civil society sectors is
not only possible, but critical. The conference generated actionable plans to improve
land use policies in Zambia, create urban data sharing hubs in India, and beyond as
the trends and scenarios are applied to cities throughout the world.
The microsite Visionaries Unbound (www.visionariesunbound.com) allows for broad
dissemination and discussion of the trends outlined in this report and will generate
a diversity of opinions from a wide audience. Transforming cities from New York to
Mumbai, from Dakar to Rio will take diverse and innovative leadership as we chart
a course toward an ever more urban global community.

Transforming cities

29

Transforming Cities
Meeting participants

1. Hon. Nicholas K. Banda, MP

Deputy Minister of Local Government
and Housing, Zambia

9. Haripasad Hegde
Global Head, Operations
Wipro Ltd.

16. Jonathon Porritt

Founder Director and Trustee,
Forum for the Future

2. Eugnie Birch
Professor, Department of City and
Regional Planning, School of Design;
Co-Director, Penn Institute for Urban
Research; University of Pennsylvania

10. Karin Ireton

Director, Sustainability, The Standard
Bank South Africa Ltd.

17. Solomon Prakash

Founder, Maya Organic and LabourNet

3. Albert Chan
Director of Planning and Development,
Shui on Land
4. Joan Clos
Undersecretary and Executive Director, United Nations Human Settlement
Programme (UN-HABITAT)
5. Ashvin Dayal
Managing Director, The Rockefeller
Foundation
6. Jinsong Du
Managing Director, Head of Real Estate
Research, Credit Suisse
7. Yu Gao
China Country Director, Landesa Rural
Development Institute
8. Robert Garris
Managing Director, The Rockefeller
Foundation

30

Transforming cities

11. Ferdous Jahan

Associate Professor of Public
Administration, University of Dhaka
Academic Coordinator, BRAC University
Development Institute
12. Claudia Juech
Managing Director, The Rockefeller
Foundation

18. Judith Rodin

President, The Rockefeller Foundation
19. Twarath Sutabutr
Deputy Director General, Department of
Alternative Energy, Ministry of Energy,
Bangkok, Thailand
20. Vijay Vaitheeswaran
China Business Editor, The Economist

13. Steven Koonin

Professor of Information, Operations
and Management Sciences, Leonard
N. Stern School of Business; Director,
Center for Urban Science and Progress,
New York University

21. Susan Wachter

Professor of Financial Management,
Real Estate and Finance, The Wharton
School; Co-Director, Penn Institute for
Urban Research, University of
Pennsylvania

14. Alan Mabin

Professor of Urbanism, School of
Architecture and Planning, Director,
The City Institute, University of the
Witwatersrand

22. Sameh Wahba

Sector Manager, Urban Development
and Resilience Unit, World Bank

15. Sheela Patel

Founder Director, Society for the
Promotion of Area Resource Centers,
Mumbai

23. Danny Zulu

Principal economist, Ministry of Local
Government and Housing, Zambia