Assignment 1 (Forecasting Analysis)

2. Hospitality hotels forecasts monthly labor needs.

a) Given the following monthly labor figures, make a forecast for June using a three period
moving average and five-period moving average.
b) If the actual labor figure for June turns to be 41, what would be the forecast for July using
each of these models
c) Compare the accuracy of these models using the mean absolute deviation.
Month
January
February
March
April
May

Actual Values
32
41
38
39
43

3 The owner of a small hardware store has noted a sales pattern for window locks that seems to
parallel the number of break-ins reported each week in the newspaper. The data are:
Sales
Breakins

46
9

18
3

20
3

22
5

27
4

34
7

14
2

37
6

30
4

a. Plot the data to determine which type of equation, linear or non-linear, is appropriate.

b. Obtain a regression equation for the data.

c. Estimate average sales when the number of break-ins is five.
4.

5. Consider the following time series.

a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year.