Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Table of Contents
Slide
Agriculture Fundamentals
Construction & Forestry Fundamentals
4
21
Agriculture Fundamentals
120%
50%
100%
40%
80%
Cotton
Corn
30%
20%
60%
40%
Soybean
20%
10%
0%
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016P
0%
Cotton Ratios
Wheat
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
Production
Source: USDA, 9 November 2016
6
04/05
06/07
08/09
Consumption
10/11
12/13
14/15
16/17
3,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2,000
2015
2017F
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017F
$ Billions
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2001
2003
2005
2007
Crops
Livestock
2009
2011
Government Payments
2013
2015
2017F
30%
$3,000
25%
$ Billions
$2,500
$2,000
20%
$1,500
$1,000
15%
$500
$0
1973
1977
1981
Farm Debt
1985
1989
Farm Equity
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017F
10%
Millions of Bushels
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
10/11
12/13
14/15
16/17F
EU 28
Macroeconomic Data
16%
GDP Composition
2%
12%
24%
8%
4%
0%
74%
-4%
Services
-8%
Industry
Agriculture
Interest
Rate
Inflation
Unemployment
2014
Source: IHS Global Insight, November 2016
11
GDP
Growth
2015
Germany
UK
France
2016F
EU 28
Ag Economic Data
US$ Billions
$150
$120
$90
$60
$30
$0
2008
2011
2014
2017F
Includes wheat, barley, corn, sunflower seed, rapeseed, soybean, sugar beet,
cotton, rice
Source: IHS Global Insight, November 2016
Production
Net Exports
Total Grains
15%
7%
Wheat
21%
15%
Barley
42%
30%
Pork Meat
21%
34%
Cow Milk
30%
37%
Brazil
Macroeconomic Data
16%
GDP Composition
12%
5%
8%
23%
4%
0%
72%
-4%
Services
-8%
-12%
Agriculture
CPI
Inflation
2014
Source: IHS Global Insight, November 2016
13
Industry
Unemployment
2015
2016F
GDP
Growth
Brazil
Ag Economic Data
US$ Billions
$150
$120
$90
$60
$30
$0
2008
2017F
Production
Net Exports
31%
41%
Corn
8%
19%
Sugar
21%
44%
Beef
16%
18%
Chicken
14%
36%
Soybean
14
2014
2011
CIS
Macroeconomic Data
16%
12%
4%
8%
36%
4%
60%
0%
-4%
Services
-8%
Industry
Agriculture
Interest
Rate
Inflation
Unemployment
2014
Source: IHS Global Insight, November 2016
15
GDP
Growth
Russia
2015
2016F
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
CIS
Ag Economic Data
US$ Billions
$150
$120
$90
$60
$30
$0
2008
2017F
Production
Net Exports
Total Grains
10%
21%
Wheat
16%
24%
Barley
24%
34%
4%
16%
53%
27%
Corn
Sunflower
16
2014
Includes wheat, barley, corn, sunflower seed, rapeseed, soybean, sugar beet
Source: IHS Global Insight, November 2016
2011
China
Macroeconomic Data
16%
GDP Composition
12%
9%
8%
48%
4%
43%
0%
-4%
Services
-8%
Industry
Agriculture
Interest
Rate
Inflation
2014
Source: IHS Global Insight, November 2016
17
Unemployment
2015
2016F
GDP
Growth
China
Ag Economic Data
US$ Billions
$300
$225
$150
$75
$0
2008
18
2014
2017F
Includes corn, wheat, rice, barley, sorghum, oilseeds, peanut, sugar, cotton
Source: IHS Global Insight, November 2016
2011
Exports
Total Grains
21%
0.5%
Wheat
18%
0.7%
Corn
22%
0.0%
Rice
30%
1.8%
Cotton
23%
0.5%
India
Macroeconomic Data
16%
GDP Composition
12%
16%
8%
4%
54%
30%
0%
-4%
Services
-8%
Industry
Agriculture
Interest
Rate
Inflation
2014
Source: IHS Global Insight, November 2016
19
Unemployment
2015
2016F
GDP
Growth
India
Ag Economic Data
US$ Billions
$150
$120
$90
$60
$30
$0
2008
2011
2014
2017F
Includes corn, wheat, rice, barley, sorghum, oilseeds, peanut, sugar, cotton
Source: IHS Global Insight, November 2016
Production
Exports
Total Grains
10%
4%
Wheat
12%
1%
Corn
2%
1%
Rice
26%
27%
Cotton
25%
13%
21
Millions of Units
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017F
$2,000
20%
0%
$1,600
-20%
-40%
$ Billions*
$1,200
-60%
$2,400
-80%
$800
-100%
-120%
$400
-140%
$0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
-160%
2017F