International Journal of Civil, Structural,

Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering

Research and Development (IJCSEIERD)
ISSN(P): 2249-6866; ISSN(E): 2249-7978
Vol. 6, Issue 6, Dec 2016, 27-34
TJPRC Pvt. Ltd.

DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURE PREDICTION MODEL

PARK JAEHONG, YUN DUKGEUN, YOON CHUNJOO, KIM JINGUK & YANG CHOONGHEON
Highway & Transportation Research Institute, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Korea
ABSTRACT
This study aimed to develop a model to predict a road surface temperature using atmospheric temperature and
humidity measured via the thermal mapping system in order to predict road surface temperature in the road network
where drivers are driving. In this study, a method that predicted a road surface temperature was proposed to prevent slip
and slide traffic accidents in winter. A road surface temperature was predicted suing a road surface temperature in the
driving trajectory using data of road surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, and atmospheric humidity collected
from the vehicle and data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and T-test. Finally, a prediction model of road
surface temperature was developed using KNN. The results of analysis on the KNN parameters showed that a minimum
difference in temperature per min was 0.02, maximum difference was 4.82, and mean difference was 1.59. A total
root mean squared error of the prediction results was 0.92. The analysis result on road surface prediction model was
compared with that in the real road surface temperature to determine the models accuracy. The study result will be

KEYWORDS: Thermal Mapping System, Road Temperature Prediction, KNN & Traffic Safety

Received: Oct 16, 2016; Accepted: Nov 22, 2016; Published: Nov 23, 2016; Paper Id.: IJCSEIERDDEC20163

INTRODUCTION

Original Article

utilized in other road safety related studies related to weather in the future.

Background
In recent years, the numbers of traffic accidents and death tolls have been decreasing in Korea as much
attention on traffic safety, research achievements, and technical level have increased steadily. However, still more
than 5,000 deaths due to traffic accident are occurring in every year. Thus, a number of studies analyzed the causes
of traffic accidents in detail and the results suggested that climate conditions such as bad weather influenced traffic
accidents significantly. The analysis result on traffic accident severity due to climate conditions, particularly,
road surface conditions occurred during the last three years (20122014) reported that road surface conditions
such as wet or frozen conditions increased accident severity. The possibility of traffic accident occurrence is likely
to increase due to frozen roads when a temperature drops in winter. In order to prevent traffic accidents due to
frozen road surface, it is essential for drivers to be aware of frozen road surface and be careful about the condition
but it is limited for drivers to observe the condition visually resulting in difficulties of increasing driver's attention.
Since the frozen road surface occurred during winter season is one of the causes of traffic accident, it is necessary
to conduct a study on how to predict a frozen road time and place and provide information about frozen road
surface to drivers. The freezing phenomenon refers to water temperature dropped below zero. Road surfaces are
vulnerable to be frozen at the time of not only night but also sunrise and sunset when a temperature decreases.
Thus, it is necessary to provide information about road frozen conditions to drivers based on road surface
temperature in order to predict frozen road surfaces due to a temperature drop at road surface. However,

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Park Jaehong, Yun Dukgeun, Yoon Chunjoo, Kim Jinguk & Yang Choongheon

atmospheric weather information that influences a road surface temperature directly or indirectly can be provided in a
macroscopic range (unit of 5km*5km) so that it has a limitation to provide drivers with accurate temperature information
on road surfaces. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to predict a road surface temperature utilizing weather
information and road surface temperature data considering atmospheric temperature, humidity and wind direction in order
to predict road surface temperature in the road network where drivers are driving. As a target road section to develop a
prediction model of road surface temperature, some section in the Gyeongbu Expressway between Busan and Seoul was
selected and thermal mapping system and data from the Automatic Weather System (AWS) were utilized for data collection
required to road surface prediction. A significance test was conducted for each of the variables and a road surface
temperature was predicted utilizing K-NN (K-Nearest Neighbor) algorithm, which was highly utilized in prediction
models.
Literature Review
Previous studies on prediction of road surface temperature using weather data and road surface data conducted in
Korea and other nations have been reviewed.
Sato (2004) developed a prediction model of road surface temperature for mountainous areas and conducted a
study on the need of explanation why the frozen road surface was important.
Yang et al. (2011) developed a road surface temperature prediction model using heat-energy balance principle
between road surface and atmosphere. Their road surface temperature prediction model consisted of two modules:
Canopy 1 (description of heat exchange between road surface and atmosphere) and Canopy 2 (reflection of pavement
characteristics during heat energy exchange process). The analysis on model execution showed that a mean error between
two temperatures was less than 2. Krmanc (2012) performed a study whether the METRo model used in Canadian
National Weather Service can be applied to other nation (Slovenia). Kim et al. (2014) developed a prediction model of road
surface temperature using neural network theory by setting road surface temperature data that can be obtained in the Road
Weather Information System as variables. The data used to develop the model were road surface temperature, atmospheric
temperature, and atmospheric humidity and a neural network that can predict a road surface temperature after one, two and
three hours was designed. The analysis result showed that a standard deviation was 0.55 after one hour, 1.27 after two
hour, and 1.43 after three hour and R2 value was 0.985, 0.923, and 0.903, respectively to indicate the explanatory power
of the model. Park et al. (2014) developed United Model (UM)-Road that can predict road surface temperatures using UM
meteorological fields produced in the KMA and road surface characteristic data and applied the model to real road surfaces
to compare the results. The analysis result showed that the UM-Road simulated a change in trend of road surface
temperature or maximum and minimum values during the non-precipitation time. When there was no precipitation or UM
input value was accurate, the error rate showed that 50% of a deviation between UM-Road prediction and real measured
values was within 1.5 and 90% of deviation was within 2.5. Song (2014) developed a model to predict road surfaces
using energy balance theory on the road. His model represented a micrometeorological physical process, which was highly
complex, and compared and verified the observation data of road weather observation systems in Germany and Korea
Meteorological Administration (KMA). His analysis result proved that two systems were highly similar. Lee et al. (2015)
developed a prediction model of accident processing time through K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) algorithm, which was a
non-parametric model using past traffic accident history data in the expressways in Korea. They classified accidents into
accident grade to develop a model and data were extracted in terms of traffic volume, number of lanes, and time.
Impact Factor (JCC): 6.3724

NAAS Rating: 3.01

Development of Road Surface Temperature Prediction Model

29

The results using the model were verified through the prediction error (MAPE) and revealed a low error compared to
previous study results. Lee et al. (2015) analyzed traffic accidents caused by various weather conditions (precipitation,
visibility, humidity, cloudiness, and temperature etc.) by using AWS weather data via logistic regression model and
decision making tree model. The conclusion of the analysis result showed that precipitation and temperature were the most
influential factors to traffic accidents. Son et al. (2015) developed a road surface prediction model using weather and traffic
data. In the road surface temperature prediction model, a heat balance method was applied and vehicle radiant heat and tire
friction heat were configured to consider a traffic volume in the model. The analysis result after model construction
showed that RMSE, which was an error between observation and prediction values, was 1.97.
Analysis Methodology
The study method was divided into three stages: investigation, analysis, and conclusion in order to develop a
prediction model of road surface temperature. The investigation stage was a model investigation stage to predict a road
surface temperature and collect meteorological data provided by the thermal mapping system and AWS. Road surface
temperatures, atmosphere temperature, and atmosphere humidity where vehicles were running were collected using the
thermal mapping system and missing data and abnormal data were removed from the collected data. Moreover, AWS
meteorological data provided by the KMA were collected and matched with the GPS acquisition location of the driving
vehicle. The specifications and systems of the thermal mapping system used in the study are presented in Table 1 and
Figure 1.
Table 1: Main Sensor Specifications
Category

Description

Atmospheric humidity
0% ~ 100% RH
measurement range
Atmospheric humidity measuring sensor
Accuracy of atmospheric
3% RH
humidity measurement
Atmospheric temperature
-20~ +80
measurement range
Atmospheric temperature measuring sensor
Accuracy of atmospheric
0.3
temperature measurement
Road surface temperature
-25~ +100
measurement range
Accuracy of road surface
0.5
temperature measurement
Road surface temperature measuring sensor
Measurement point position
40mm ~ 1000mm
(gap distance from the ground)
Operating voltage
10VDC ~ 32VDC
Data output
CAN Communication
Measurement
GPS sensor
1.8m
accuracy(Positioning accuracy)

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Park Jaehong, Yun Dukgeun, Yoon Chunjoo, Kim Jinguk & Yang Choongheon

Figure 1: Picture of Thermal Mapping System

An uninterrupted flow facility (Gyeongbu Expressway) was selected as a target section for development of
prediction model of road surface temperature. Since the thermal mapping system used in this study acquires time-base data,
acquiring data from uninterrupted flow roads can obtain more appropriate data than from interrupted flow roads where
traffic delay or congestion can occur. Data from 01:00 to 06:00 for five hours were acquired in every 1min. and driving
trajectories of vehicles acquired through the investigation were presented in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Vehicle Trajectory for Acquisition Data

The observation locations of the AWS that can affect the driving trajectories of the vehicle are presented in
Table 2. and data were matched with one-min observation data utilizing the AWS data from the shortest distance from the
center of the observation location.
Table 2: Location of AWS
Region (No)
Gyeongsan (827)
Gyeryong (636)
Sangbuk (900)

Latitude
35.82507
36.31318
35.58243

Longitude
128.74160
127.24065
129.09982

Altitude
Region (No)
Latitude Longitude Altitude
77.09000
Osan (550)
37.18797 127.04872 40.20000
131.99000 Gimcheon (822) 36.08128 128.10164 83.31000
124.31000
-

In this study, 6 factors were collected from the thermal mapping system and AWS. The atmospheric temperature
and humidity and road surface temperature acquired from the thermal mapping data refer to information about the section
where the vehicle was driving and the observation temperature in the AWS refers to an atmospheric temperature of the data
acquired from the meteorological observation point. Wind speed 1 refers to aggregate data during 1minute and wind speed
10 refers to aggregate data during 10minute.

Impact Factor (JCC): 6.3724

NAAS Rating: 3.01

Development of Road Surface Temperature Prediction Model

31

In the analysis stage, T-test that tested significance between variables was conducted with regard to each of data
collected from the thermal mapping system and AWS thereby deriving a statistical significance between variables.
In addition, accuracy was done by comparing a distance between individual data and analysis was done using the K-NN
model. Accuracy of analysis result was presented through RMSE. T-test is a parametric statistics technique that tests
whether mean values of two groups or two correlated samples were sampled from the same population. It is a parametric
test that tests a statistical difference between two groups and one of the most widely used simple methods. The K-Nearest
Neighbors (K-NN) algorithm is a pattern recognition method, which is a nonparametric method that is used in
classification or regression. The K-NN algorithm searches the current state vector and past state vector to construct a
cluster consisting of K neighbors which uses distance metric. History data are needed for prediction in order to construct
the K-NN model and derived results using the K-NN model are compared with measured road surface temperature. A root
mean square deviation (RMSD) or root mean square error (RMSE) was a frequently used measure of the difference of
values observed in real environment and predicted values or estimated values. It is suitable to represent precision. Each of
the differences is called residual and RMSD is used as a measure to aggregate residuals.

ANALYSIS RESULTS
Descriptive Statistical Analysis
The results of technical statistics (mean, max, min, standard deviation, and variance) of the data collected through
the thermal mapping system and AWS were presented. The minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures collected from
the atmosphere using the thermal system were1.40, 6.40, and 1.80 and the minimum, maximum, and mean
temperatures collected from the road surface were1.30, 6.40, and 1.60. The minimum, maximum, and mean
temperatures collected from the AWS were 3.00, 4.00, and 1.60. The variance analysis on each variable showed
that a change in road surface temperature was smaller than that in atmospheric and observation temperatures as presented
in Table 3.
Table 3: Result of Description Statistical Analysis
N
Atmospheric temperature ()
Atmospheric humidity (%)
Road surface temperature ()
Observation temperature ()
Wind speed 1 (m/s)
Wind speed 10 (m/s)

252
252
252
252
252
252

Minimum Maximum Average

-1.40
0.00
-1.30
-3.00
0.00
0.00

6.40
84.80
6.40
4.00
5.00
3.00

1.80
72.40
1.60
1.04
1.22
1.29

Standard Standard
Deviation Deviation
2.12
4.50
7.34
53.88
1.66
2.74
2.75
7.55
1.12
1.25
1.01
1.02

T-Statistics Analysis
The T-Statistics analysis was conducted to test the statistical significance of each parameter and the result showed
that significance probabilities of all parameters were 0.00. T-value was derived as follows: 13.44 for atmospheric
temperature, 156.58 for atmospheric humidity, 15.36 for road surface temperature, 5.98 for observation temperature,
17.318 for wind speed 1, and 20.232 for wind speed 10. Thus, as shown in T-value results, variables that can be obtained
using the thermal mapping system and AWS had similar significances statistically and influenced positive effect. The
results of T-test are presented in Table 4.

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Park Jaehong, Yun Dukgeun, Yoon Chunjoo, Kim Jinguk & Yang Choongheon

Table 4: Result of Description Statistical Analysis

t
Atmospheric temperature ()
Atmospheric humidity (%)
Road surface temperature ()
Observation temperature ()
Wind speed 1 (m/s)
Wind speed 10 (m/s)

Degree of P-value Mean Value

Freedom (Both Sides) Difference

13.48
156.58
15.36
5.98
17.32
20.23

251
251
251
251
251
251

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

1.80
72.40
1.60
1.04
1.22
1.29

95% Confidence Interval

Difference
Lower Limit Upper Limit
1.53
2.06
71.49
73.31
1.40
1.81
0.69
1.38
1.08
1.36
1.16
1.41

K-NN Analysis
A time used for pattern analysis of K-NN, which was employed to develop a prediction model of road surface
temperature was set at 10 min in this study. The number of similar patterns that were developed to predict a road surface
temperature was set to 20 patterns and 100-min history data prior to the prediction time were used to predict a 1-min road
surface temperature. The results of analysis on the KNN parameters in every one min showed that a minimum difference in
temperature per min was 0.02, maximum difference was 4.82, and mean difference was 1.59. A total root mean
squared error of the prediction results was 0.92.

CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCH

The analysis result on traffic accident severity due to climate conditions, particularly, road surface conditions
occurred during the last three years (20122014) reported that road surface conditions such as wet or frozen conditions
increased accident severity. The possibility of traffic accident occurrence is likely to increase due to frozen roads when a
temperature drops in winter. Thus, as a pre-requisite research to prevent traffic accident due to frozen road surface,
this study developed a model that can predict a road surface temperature in vehicle driving sections. In order to predict
road surface temperatures, data collected from the thermal mapping system and AWS (atmospheric temperature,
atmospheric humidity, road surface temperature, and wind direction) were employed. This study developed a model that
can predict road surface temperatures utilizing weather information and road surface temperature data based on the
analysis result.
However, the following additional research is needed to ensure higher reliability of the derived results than this
study. First, this study predicted a road surface temperature by selecting a single section in uninterrupted flow road.
However, information from more various sections is needed to develop a prediction model of road surface temperature than
used in this study. Second, this study employed temperature, humidity, and wind speed as variables required to predict a
road surface temperature. However, various other variables are also needed such as pavement heat of the road, longwave
radiant heat and latent heat emitted from road surface. Third, significance between variables was tested using T-statistic
and predicted using the KNN model as a model to predict a road surface temperature. For future research, it is needed to
improve prediction accuracy using diverse prediction model algorithms including KNN. The study results will be expected
to be utilized in other studies that can improve road traffic safety using road surface temperature in the future.

Impact Factor (JCC): 6.3724

NAAS Rating: 3.01

Development of Road Surface Temperature Prediction Model

33

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was supported by a grant from Inner Research Program Development of Driving Environment
Observation, Prediction and Safety Technology Based on Automotive Sensors funded by Korea Institute of Civil
Engineering and Building Technology.
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