Climate change

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change lasts
for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). Climate change may refer to a
change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term
average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change is caused by
factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics,
and volcanic eruptions. Certain human activities have also been identified as significant causes of
recent climate change, often referred to as global warming.[1]
Scientists actively work to understand past and future climate by using observations and theoretical
models. A climate recordextending deep into the Earth's pasthas been assembled, and
continues to be built up, based on geological evidence from borehole temperature profiles, cores
removed from deep accumulations of ice, floral and faunal records, glacial and periglacial processes,
stable-isotope and other analyses of sediment layers, and records of past sea levels. More recent
data are provided by the instrumental record.General circulation models, based on the physical
sciences, are often used in theoretical approaches to match past climate data, make future
projections, and link causes and effects in climate change.

What is El Nio?
The El Nio story
El Nio is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as
opposed to La Nia, which is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the
Equatorial Pacific. El Nio is an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical
Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe.
Among these consequences are increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in
Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes
associated with devastating brush fires in Australia. Observations of conditions in the
tropical Pacific are considered essential for the prediction of short term (a few months to 1
year) climate variations.
To provide necessary data, NOAA operates a network of buoys which measure temperature,
currents and winds in the equatorial band. These buoys daily transmit data which are
available to researchers and forecasters around the world in real time.
NOTE: Two of the largest El Nio events on record occurred in 1982-1983 and in 1997-1998.
These two important El Nio events are used for illustrations in this web page.
In normal, non-El Nio conditions (left, top diagram) the trade winds blow to the west
along the equator from South America towards Asia in the tropical Pacific Ocean. These
winds pile up warm surface water off Asia, so that the sea surface is about 1/2 meter (1 1/2
feet) higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador in South America.

The sea surface temperature is about 8C (14F) warmer off the

coast of Asia than in the eastern Pacific, due to an upwelling of cold
water from deeper levels in the east Pacific. The cooler water off
South America is nutrient-rich, supporting high levels of primary
productivity, diverse marine ecosystems, and major fisheries. Clouds
and rainfall are found in rising air over the warmest water near Asia,
whereas the east Pacific is relatively dry.
In the schematic diagrams to the left, the blue band represents the
thermocline, which is the depth of water that is 20C (68F). During
a normal year, it slopes up from Asia towards South America as the
trade winds pile up warm water off the coast of Asia.
During El Nio (bottom schematic diagram), the trade winds relax
in the central and western Pacific leading to a flattening of the
thermocline (blue band) due to a depression of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific, and an
elevation of the thermocline in the west. The observations at 110W show, for example, that
during 1982-1983, the 17-degree isotherm dropped to about 150m depth. This reduced the
efficiency of upwelling to cool the surface and cut off the supply of nutrient rich thermocline
water to the euphotic zone. The result was a rise in sea surface temperature and a drastic
decline in primary productivity, the latter of which adversely affected higher trophic levels of
the food chain, including commercial fisheries in this region.
The weakening of easterly tradewinds during El Nio is evident in this figure as well. Rainfall
follows the warm water eastward, with associated flooding in Peru and drought in Indonesia
and Australia. The eastward displacement of the atmospheric heat source overlaying the
warmest water results in large changes in the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn
force changes in weather in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific.

What is La Nia?
The La Nia story
La Nia is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific,
compared to El Nio, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the
Equatorial Pacific. The graphic below shows the sea surface temperature in the equatorial
Pacific (20N-20S, 100E-60W) from Indonesia on the left to central America on the right.

Strong La Nia conditions during

December 1998 are shown in the top
panel. The Eastern Pacific is cooler
than usual, and unusually cool water
extends farther westward than is
usual (see the blue color extending
further off-shore from South America
along the equator).
Normal Equatorial Pacific Ocean
surface temperatures (December
1993) are shown in the middle panel,
including the usual cool water, called
the 'cold tongue', in the Eastern
Pacific (in blue, on the right of the

plot) and the usual warm water, called the 'warm pool' in the Western Pacific (in red, on the
left).
Strong El Nio conditions, in December 1997, are shown on the bottom panel, with warm
water (red) extending all along the equator.
El Nio and La Nia are opposite phases of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle,
with La Nia sometimes referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Nio as the warm
phase of ENSO.

The Origin of the Names, La Nia and El Nio

El Nio was originally recognized by fisherman off the coast of South America as the
appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific ocean, occurring near the beginning of
the year. El Nio means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the
tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. La Nia means The Little Girl. La
Nia is also sometimes referred to as "an ENSO cold event".