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FX Rates Intl Parity

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University of Alberta

Masa Watanabe

Winter 2015

FIN 442

INTERNATIONAL PARITY CONDITIONS I

FX Market Characteristics .............................................................................. 4

The Domestic Fisher Equation ..................................................................... 10

The Law of One Price (LOP) = Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) ................. 11

Locational Arbitrage ..................................................................................... 12

Cross Rates and Triangular Arbitrage .......................................................... 13

Interest Rate Parity (IRP) .............................................................................. 14

Forward Parity and Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis (UEH)................... 18

Practice Problems with Solutions: Butler 5th ed. Chs. 3 & 4 ........................ 21

So much of barbarism, however still remains in the

transactions of most civilized nations, that almost all

independent countries choose to assert their nationality by

having, to their own inconvenience and that of their

neighbors, a peculiar currency of their own.

~ John Stuart Mill

Day

Night

Winter 2015

Notation used in this note

Nominal interest rate. For example, i denotes the nominal interest rate for the

British pound.

St

Spot exchange rate at time t. For example, S0$/ denotes the value of the euro in

dollars at time 0.

Ft,T

Forward exchange rate, quoted at time t for delivery at time T > t. For example,

F0,1/$ denotes the value of the dollar in yen for delivery at time 1, quoted at time 0.

St

st

FPt,T

Change in the value of your position. For example, V$/ may denote the change in

the value per pound of your receipt from an export to UK.

Price of a good. For example, P may denote the price of gold in British pound.

Et[]

about the future time T spot rate formed at time t.

Winter 2015

The FX Market

8 hours

(covers NYC & London)

Winter 2015

FX MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

Average Daily Turnover - US$ Equivalent

(Trillions)

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

The FX market is the worlds largest financial market. It operates 24 hours a day.

Volume: $5 trillion per day (April 2013, Triennial Central Bank Survey by the Bank

for International Settlements). 75% is in the interbank market.

London is the worlds largest foreign exchange center with over 30% of all activity.

Londons advantages include its:

history (going back to the days when the pound was the predominant world

currency),

geography (can trade with Tokyo and Hong Kong in the morning and New York in

the afternoon), and

the right regulatory environment.

Commercial banks are the market makers. Their clients are corporations (typically

hedgers) and fund managers (sometimes speculators). SWIFT and CHIPS are the

operational backbone of the interbank market.

Spot transactions make up about 40% of all FX trading activity.

Around half of all FX transactions involve the US$.

Liquidity is the ease of capturing an assets value. The interbank foreign exchange

market for large transactions is the worlds most liquid market.

Winter 2015

Spot Rate

The spot rate, SA/B, is the value of currency B in A. For example, S$/ = 1.30$/

means that the price of the euro is $1.30.

Forward Rate

A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell a currency at a future time for a

pre-determined price. This pre-determined price is called the forward rate, denoted

by FA/B.

Note that these are the prices of Currency B, the currency in the denominator.

Rule

Always buy or sell the currency in the denominator of a foreign exchange quote.

Winter 2015

Exchange-rate Quotations

National Post, 2014/12/31, Page FP7.

Any interesting observations?

Winter 2015

FX Market Quotes with Bid-Ask Spread

Bid

Ask (offer): the price at which a market maker is willing to sell a currency.

Bid-ask spread: ask price bid price.

Spreads in the most active markets are less than 5bp (0.05%). For less liquid

currencies they can be much larger.

The spread size depends on the markets liquidity and volatility and on the size of

the transaction.

Note that the quotation on the previous page shows no spreads. The rates are the

average of the quote-midpoint over banks, and therefore do not represent tradable

exchange rates.

Example of a tradable quote from Reuters:

The bid rate is $1.2078/. This is the price at which Citibank is willing to buy .

The ask rate is $1.2081/. This is the price at which Citibank is willing to sell .

Aside: these rates are quoted at 01:01a.m. Central Standard Time (the time

zone is not shown, but the quote was taken in Houston), 8/25/2004 by Citibank

Hong Kong. Although everybody is asleep in North America, Asian markets are

wide open (see the FX Market map above)! Literally, the Citi never sleeps

The market maker keeps the spread. The implicit transaction fee on a single trade is

half of the spread.

Buy 1 from Citi and simultaneously sell 1 to it. You will lose 1.2081 1.2078

= $0.0003 or 3/100 round-trip. Your one-way cost is half of it: 1.5/100.

Winter 2015

The ask rate must be greater than the bid for the market maker to be willing to make

a market.

If not, the quote refers to the prices of the currency in the numerator. For

example, the above quote is equivalent with:

Bid $1.2081/ > Ask $1.2078/ for $.

Citi will buy the dollar at $1.2081/ and sell it at $1.2078/ (also see Method 2 in

the next example).

Example. If a Citibank currency trader quotes a spread of 1.2078 USD 1.2081 USD

against the euro (see the Reuters indication above), how many euros would it take to

buy one dollar? How many euros would be received in exchange for one dollar?

(Note that we are buying or selling the currency in the numerator.)

Solution: Method 1. Do it intuitively.

It is either 1/1.2078 or 1/1.2081.

You always lose (unfortunately) against the market maker, so you have to pay the

larger of the two, 1/1.2078 = 0.8280 euros to buy $1.

Contrarily, you will only receive 1/1.2081=0.8277 euros when you sell $1.

Note: As the number of currencies involved increases, you can easily get confused with

this intuitive method. Try to see this yourself by applying it to the Triangular Arbitrage

later in this note.

Winter 2015

Method 2. More systematically, apply the Rule.

If necessary, invert the rates so that the currency in question (the dollar) appears in

the denominator. Also rearrange them so that ask > bid.

Bid 1.2078

1.2081 Ask

Bid 1/1.2081

Note that upon inverting, the bid quote for becomes the ask for $ and the ask quote

for becomes the bid for $.

Buy or sell the currency in the denominator.

To buy $1, you have to buy at the ask for the dollar, paying 1/1.2078 = 0.8280

euros.

To sell $1, you receive the bid rate for the dollar, 1/1.2081=0.8277 euros.

Winter 2015

THE DOMESTIC FISHER EQUATION

1 + i = (1 + )(1 + e )

i

e

=

=

=

inflation rate

real interest rate

i + e

That is, the real interest rate approximately equals the nominal interest rate less

(expected) inflation.

Intuition: You have $1. The price of an apple is $1. You can either buy an apple

today, or deposit the dollar in your bank account. Your bank account pays a 5%

interest. So, you will receive $1.05 in 1 year. But if the apple price has doubled, you

can buy only about half an apple. That is, your dollar has lost its real purchasing

power by about a half. The real interest rate will tell you exactly how much.

Example: What is the real interest rate in the above setting according to the exact

formula? What if you use the approximate formula?

Example: The nominal euro interest rate on a one-year deposit is 6%. Expected

inflation is 4%. What is the expected real interest rate?

The real interest rate can be negative. See Buttonwood: The real deal, The

Economist, 10/29/2012.

Recently, in some currencies even nominal interest rates have become negative.

10

Winter 2015

THE LAW OF ONE PRICE (LOP) = PURCHASING POWER PARITY (PPP)

Equivalent assets sell for the same price.

Various parity conditions are derived from LOP.

Cant be used when assets vary in quality.

Seldom holds for non-traded assets.

May not hold precisely when there are market frictions.

Example. Suppose the price of gold is P = 250/oz in London, and P = 400/oz in

Berlin. What is the exchange rate that PPP implies?

Answer. The law of one price requires

P = P S/

400 = 250 S/

S/ = 400/250 = 1.6000/

If this relation does not hold, then there is an opportunity to lock in a riskless arbitrage

profit (in a costless world).

Riskless arbitrage is a profitable position obtained with

no net investment

no risk

11

Winter 2015

LOCATIONAL ARBITRAGE

In the real world, there is a bid-ask spread.

No Arbitrage Condition in the Presence of Cost

Equivalent assets sell for the same price within the bounds of transactions cost.

Locational arbitrage exists when somebodys ask price is lower (i.e., you can buy low)

than anothers bid (i.e., you can sell high).

Q1. Bank X quotes 125.26/ bid, 125.32/ ask.

Bank Y quotes 125.28/ bid, 125.34/ ask.

Can you make money? How do you know? How much?

125.34

125.32

125.28

125.26

Bank X

Bank Y

Bank Z quotes 125.33/ bid, 125.37/ ask.

125.37

125.33

125.32

125.26

Bank X

12

Bank Z

Winter 2015

CROSS RATES AND TRIANGULAR ARBITRAGE

Replace gold with another currency Triangular arbitrage

A cross exchange rate is an exchange rate that does not involve the domestic

currency.

Example. The following spot exchange rates are observed in the market: $1.0779/,

125.29/, 116.19/$. Can you make any money? How much? Specify each transaction.

(We are ignoring spread.)

Solution.

First, eliminate one currency. To do so, compute a synthetic exchange rate implied by

any two rates (say the first two):

/

/$

/$

/$

125.29 1/1.0779 = 116.235 (synthetic) > 116.19 (market)

Thus, it is cheaper to buy the dollar at the market rate of 116.19. We wish to sell the

dollar effectively at the synthetic rate, which actually involves two transactions.

Specifically:

1. Sell $1.0779 and receive 1,

Selling $ against at the synthetic rate

2. Sell 1 and get 125.29, and

3. Sell 125.29 at 116.19/$ and receive 125.29/116.19 = $1.0783.

Profit of $0.0004 for every euro bought and sold.

Graphical Representation

Buy 1

Sell $1.0779

Arbitrage profit of

$0.0004 per every 1

bought and sold.

No investment

No risk

Sell 125.29

Buy $(125.29/116.19)

= $1.0783

Sell 1

Buy 125.29

13

Winter 2015

INTEREST RATE PARITY (IRP)

d/f

t ,T

d/f

t

1 id

1 if

d/f

d

f

or FPt ,T i i ,

d/f

d/f

d/f

where FPt ,T Ft ,T / St 1 is the forward premium.

A currency is selling at a forward premium when the price in the forward market is

higher than the price in the spot market (FPt,T > 0).

A currency is selling at a forward discount when the price in the forward market is

lower than the price in the spot market (FPt,T < 0).

Implication: The forward premium is determined by the interest rate differential.

A high interest-rate currency must be in forward discount.

This is a parity condition that you can trust, because:

All numbers are competitively determined in liquid markets (spot and forward FX

markets, Eurocurrency markets) in which arbitrage works.

Involves no human expectation (compared to other parity conditions to be

introduced).

Note that id and if are interest rates for the period between t and T. So, if you are given

annual interest rates and if T t > 1 year, you must compound them. Similarly, if T t

< 1 year, you must prorate them (on a 360-day basis). That is, for a 6-month forward

rate (T t = years), the IRP becomes

d/f

t ,T

1 id / 2

S

.

1 if / 2

d/f

t

Note that Butler 5th ed. applies his general formula, Eq. (4.4) on p.80, to all occasions

including cases in which the time to maturity is less than 1 year, using a 365-day basis

(see, e.g., p.123-124 & Figure 5.6). But in real markets, Eurocurrency interest rates are

usually quoted as simple interest rates on a 360-day basis, which produces the above

formula. In class, we will follow the latter convention.

Q3. Does IRP tell us anything about what the future spot rate (St+1) will be?

Q4. Does IRP tell us anything about what the future forward rate (Ft+1,T+1) will be?

14

Winter 2015

Interest Rate Parity (IRP) Take 1

Rewrite IRP as

1 i$

Ft $/f

,T

S

$/f

t

(1 i f )

A fundamental idea in Finance: If there are multiple ways to achieve the same cash

flows and the alternatives have the same risk, they will also have the same return.

Example. Consider two nearly risk-free investment alternatives for $100,000.

Alternative #1:

Alternative #2:

Deposit the x euros in a euro CD at i for 1 year (yields y).

Enter into a forward contract to sell the y euros at F$/ in 1 year for $z.

Are these two paths to the same end? Suppose all of these transactions can be done with a

single creditworthy bank, so that the two alternatives have the same risk.

Alternative #1

$100,000(1 + i$)

Deposit $100,000 in a 1

year Eurodollar CD at i$.

Withdraw

$100,000(1 + i$)

IRP

Alternative #2

Exchange $100,000 for

euros at S$/.

Receive

$100,000(F/S)(1 + i)

= $z

($100,000 / S$/) = x

CD at i.

15

year at F$/ for $z

Winter 2015

Covered Interest Arbitrage

Covered interest arbitrage enforces IRP. How?

If

d/f

t ,T

d/f

t

1 id

1 if

then

d/f

t ,T

So

d/f

Sell f forward at Ft ,T .

Std/f

may be too low.

may be too high.

Buy f at St .

Borrow at id.

Lend at if.

id

if

d/f

Interest Rate Parity (IRP) Take 2

Example. Suppose the current spot rate is 1.47 $/, the 1-year Europound rate is 4.55%,

and the 1-year Eurodollar rate is 2.66%. What is the implied 1-year forward rate? If the

quoted 1-year forward rate is 1.46 $/, can you make money? How?

Answer. By IRP,

Fimp = S$/ (1 + i$) / (1 + i)

= 1.47 1.0266 / 1.0455

= 1.4434 $/

< Fmarket = 1.46$/

This is the same relation as above. So:

Borrow $1.47 at 2.66%

for 1 year

Sell $1.47 spot @$1.47/

for 1

$1.471.0266

Riskless profit

of $0.0173

4.55%

1 year:

$1.471.0266 = $1.5091

11.0455

16

1 year at 1.46$/ for

$1.5264

Winter 2015

1. Exercise: IRP and Covered Interest Arbitrage. Citibank quotes:

Yen spot rate:

110/$

0%

4%

Since the yen interest rate is zero, a strategy to exploit an arbitrage opportunity,

if any, will involve borrowing in yen.

Annualized 1-month T-bill rate

0.2

0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.1

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

c) If Chase quotes a 6-month forward rate at 106/$, can you make money? How?

17

Jul-01

Jul-96

Jul-91

Jul-86

Jul-81

Jul-76

Jul-71

Jul-66

Jul-61

Jul-56

Jul-51

Jul-46

Jul-41

Jul-36

Jul-31

0

-0.02

Jul-26

no longer a rare occurrence. As of

January 2015, short rates on major

currencies are close to zero, and in

fact, was negative for the Swiss franc

in early 2014. Around 1940, the

annualized U.S. short rate actually

hit zero. It was below 0.1% for 35

out of 48 months from 1938 through

1941.

Winter 2015

Less Reliable Parity Conditions

All of the conditions below involve market participants expectations (hence less

reliable).

FORWARD PARITY AND UNBIASED EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS (UEH)

Forward Parity

Ft,T = Et[ST]

Forward parity says that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot

rate.

That is, our best guess today of what the spot rate will be in 3 months for example is

todays 3-month forward rate.

The Forward Rate as an Unbiased Predictor of the Future Spot Rate

Exchange Rate

Spot

Probability

distribution

of actual

exchange rate

Forward

Actual

Today

In three months

Time

The counterpart for the interest rate market is the hypothesis that the implied

forward interest rate is the best guess of the future spot interest rate.

The idea is that speculators (not arbitrageurs) will force this relation to hold on

average. How does this work?

18

Winter 2015

Testing the UEH

Divide both sides of the Forward Parity relation by St and subtract 1. Then,

FPt,T = Et[st,T],

where FPt,T = Ft,T / St 1 is the forward premium and st,T = ST / St 1 is the currency

return (the percentage spot rate change) from time t to T.

This form of the Forward Parity says that the forward premium is an unbiased predictor

of the currency return.

To test this, run a regression

st,T = + FPt,T + t.

What is the hypothesis to be tested?

H0:

Note: one observation tells us nothing. That is, if todays 3 month forward rate is

$1.30/, and if the spot rate turns out to be $1.30/ in 3 months, this by itself does not

validate the UEH. Think in this way: can you run a regression with only one

observation?

Froot and Thaler find that, on average, = -0.88 (!). This is called the forward

premium anomaly. What slope do you see in the following plot if you fit a line?

as a predictor of the future spot rate

15%

(S1/$/S0/$)-1

10%

5%

Forward premium

(F1/$/S0/$)-1

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-1%

0%

1%

19

Winter 2015

The evidence indicates that for short horizonsdailythe current spot rate is the best

guess for tomorrows spot rate (This price pattern is called a martingale).

The evidence is mixed and controversial but at longer intervals the performance of the

forward rate as predictor of a future spot rate improves.

Nevertheless, there is no solid evidence in favor of a better predictor.

20

Winter 2015

PRACTICE PROBLEMS WITH SOLUTIONS: BUTLER 5TH ED. CHS. 3 & 4

Solve the following end-of-chapter problems from Butler:

3.1 a-b, 3.2, 3.6, 3.7, 4.5b (Locational arbitrage), 4.7 (IRP, Forward Parity. Interpret

the prime rates as interbank Eurocurrency rates), 4.11 (Covered Interest Arbitrage)

Suggested Solutions to Practice Problems: Butler Chs. 3 & 4

3.1

a. The bid rate is less than the offer rate, so Citicorp is quoting the currency in the

denominator. Citicorp is buying dollars at the DKK5.62/$ bid rate and selling

dollars at the DKK5.87/$ offer rate.

b. In American terms, the bid price is $0.1704/DKK and the ask price is

$0.1779/DKK. Citicorp is buying and selling the kroner at these quotes

respectively.

3.2

The ask price is higher than the bid, so these are the rates at which the bank is

willing to buy or sell dollars (in the denominator). Youre selling dollars, so youll

get the banks dollar bid price. You need to pay SKr10,000,000/(SKr7.5050/$) =

$1,332,445.04.

3.6

ask price for dollars. So, PZ4.0200/$ is equivalent to $0.2488/PZ.

b. (PZ20,000,000) / (PZ3.9690/$) = $5,039,053

PZ3.9690/$ is equivalent to $0.2520/PZ

Payment is made on (the second business day after) the three-month expiration

date.

3.7

You initially receive 104,000,000 / (104/$) = $1 million. When you buy back the

yen, you must pay 104,000,000 / (100/$) = $1.04 million. Your dollar loss is

$40,000.

4.5

b. The Mexican banks yen quote can be converted into a quote for the Mexican

peso as follows:

/MXN

= 1/(MXN0.03416/) 29.27/MXN bid on the yen and ask on the peso.

S

S/MXN = 1/(MXN0.03420/) 29.24/MXN ask on the yen and bid on the peso.

So MXN0.03416/ BID and MXN0.03420/ ASK on the yen is equivalent to

29.24/MXN BID and 29.27/MXN ASK on the Mexican peso.

The winning strategy is to buy pesos (and sell yen) from the Tokyo bank at the

28.77/MXN ask price for pesos and sell pesos (and buy yen) to the Mexican bank

at the 29.24/MXN bid price for pesos. Buying pesos in Tokyo yields

(1,000,000)/(28.77/MXN) = MXN34,758. Selling pesos in Mexico City yields

21

Winter 2015

(MXN34,758)(29.24/MXN) = 1,016,336. Your arbitrage profit is 16,336 yen, or

about MXN559 at the Mexican banks 29.24/MXN bid price for pesos.

4.7

b. Because the forward rate of 210/$ is greater than the spot rate of 190/$, the dollar

is at a forward premium. If forward rates are unbiased predictors of future spot

rates, the dollar is likely to appreciate against the yen by (210/$)/(190/$)-1 =

10.526%.

1.02724 = (1 + iBt)/1.06125 iBtimp = 9.02%

b. The 10% market rate is higher than the implied 9.02% rate from Part a. So,

borrow at i$ and deposit at iBt. To do so, make the following four transactions:

Buy Bt24,960,000 (= $1MBt24.96/$) spot at Bt24.96/$, paying $1M.

Bt24,960,000

$1,000,000

Deposit Bt24,960,000 at 10% and receive Bt27,456,000 (= 24,960,000 1.1) in

1 year.

Invest at the 10% baht interest rate

Bt27,456,000

Bt24,960,000

+$1,000,000

$1,061,250

Sell Bt27,456,000 forward in 1 year at Bt25.64/$ for a receipt of $1,070,827 (=

27,456,000/25.64) then.

Cover baht forward

$1,070,827

Bt27,456,000

worth $9,577/1.06125 = $9,024 in present value.

22

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