Team Assessment

Analysis for the Premier League match: Sunday, 15th January, 2017 versus Liverpool

Founded: in 1878 as Newton Heath, before changing to Manchester Utd in 1902

Ground: Old Trafford
Capacity: 75,643
Owners: Manchester United Plc., is a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands, and is
the ultimate parent company of Manchester United Football Club. Manchester United Plc. is
listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The only person holding 10% or more of the voting
rights in Manchester United Plc. is the Glazer family.

Current league position: 6th

Goals: 31
Goals Against: 19
Goal Difference: +12
Points: 39

Strengths and Weaknesses

Assessing what a team does well, and where they struggle, can often be a minefield. How on
earth do you expect a Liverpool fan to objectively reel off the brilliance and beauty of a
Mourinho-led Manchester United side. Impossible task.
For that reason, this report will look at various sources to see if theres any common
agreement. These will include all the outstanding analysis done in the public sphere by
Michael Caley, Paul Riley, Ben Mayhew, various authors at Spielverlagerung.com,
outsideoftheboot.com, data from Opta and finally my eyes, which arent the best.
My perception: began the season worried by their star signings, especially Mkhitaryan.
Wondered how theyd transition from sterile possession under Van Gaal to sterile
non-possession under Mourinho. How would Ibrahimovic adapt? Old workhorse, unable to
do it in England (particularly at his age) or time to silence a few idiots who wrongly believed
for a decade hed never be able to do it in England, despite years of incredible goalscoring
and club success?
What was the pre-season media/public narrative?
The Guardian posted a vote on their website, and heres the results:
Which team will win the league?
1. Man Utd (35%)
2. Man City (30%)
3. Liverpool & Chelsea (8%)
The BBC did the same thing, but instead of asking the general public, they asked experts,
proper football men, ex-players, a super computer, and Dean Saunders.

For what its worth, I had Liverpool to finish fifth and Man Utd in third, behind Man City
and Chelsea.

In terms of statistical, on-the-ball metrics, Who Scored* has the Red Devils close to the best
side in the league.
*(I am aware Who Scored linked up with The Scum newspapers fantasy football ratings over the summer. This is
incredibly regrettable. As is any link with that rag. However, Im more uncomfortable using a free service or interface
and then not quoting the source. They have been a valuable, free, data source for years now.)

Strengths:
Creating chances using throughballs (very strong)
Creating scoring chances
Attacking down the wings
Creating long shot opportunities
Protecting the lead
Stealing the ball from the opposition
Aerial duels
Defending set pieces
Weaknesses:
Finishing scoring chances
Avoiding offside
One criticism of the above results is creating long shot opportunities; which is basically
saying their players get the ball into the opposition final third and shoot from less than
optimal positions. It isnt very difficult to lash the ball into the stand from 35 yards, in fact,
if that is a strength, then me or Dejan Lovren will do a fine job.
The biggest concern for me is teams who are creating chances using throughballs as these
types of opportunities are often higher quality because they involve players running in
behind a defensive line into space.
This could also link to the avoiding offside because players need to break the defensive
structure, and it is often fractions between a well-timed throughball and the attacking
player holding his run.
According to the same website, their style of play is based on:

Controlling the game in the oppositions half

Attacking down the left
Possession football
Short passes
Attempt throughballs often
Take a lot of shots
Aggressive
Rotate their first eleven

Which begs the question: why do Mourinhos tactics seem to spoil all this apparent
attacking goodness when they play one of their rivals (especially away from home)?
Finally, the best XI this season, according to their ratings, is:

De Gea, Valencia, Bailly, Smalling, Shaw, Fellaini, Pogba, Mate, Rooney, Rashford,
Ibrahimovic.
What does this say to you? It screams to me that their ratings have massive flaws. Carrick,
Jones, Mkhitaryan, Rojo, Blind, and Herrera have all been involved in their better
performances this season, unlike Fellaini (who has been blamed for restricting Pogbas
contribution). Rashford has hardly played, Rooney has been poor, failing to link the midfield
up with Ibrahimovic; and reducing the Man Utd press to a gentle jog towards the opposition.

Long term under/over performance by Ben Mayhew @experimental361

Towards the end of December, on his website, Ben explained a new method of analysis that
looked at the longer terms trends in the Premier League. He explains,
There are two lines: one showing the rolling average of a clubs goal difference over the last 10
league games (blue line) and the other the rolling average of their expected goal difference (red
line) based on the quality of chances theyve created and faced.
Comparing these two allows us to see not only how a clubs performances have changed over time,
but also whether there were any differences between the balance of chances created (a useful
measure of underlying performance) and goals scored.

Two-and-a-half seasons of marked fluctuation, based on varying levels of

unsustainable conversion rates either way. A real rollercoaster.

For reference, heres the Liverpool one (make sure you all visit the site and share Bens
work, it is as good as it gets).

Expected Goals | Match by Match Comparison | Michael Caleys

xG model

Burnley at home was the Red Devils best xG performance of the season (in the
league), with 2.9 xGs for, and yet finished a draw. A shot quality of 0.07, under their
season average of 0.098 (basically a 1 in 10 chance of the shot being converted, based
on thousands and thousands of shots), is one possible factor. Something the Reds
know all too well after their own trip to Turf Moor.

The above game was in a period of eight matches when Mourinhos side managed
just one victory (over Swansea), drawing six and losing to Chelsea. Out of those
draws, they were probably unfortunate against Stoke and West Ham, at home, when
they created 2.7 and 2.1 xGs, with a shot quality of 0.11 and 0.12.

Interestingly, they score a similar amount of goals at home (1.6 to 1.5) as they do
away; although, and this is perhaps a strength of the xG models, the xG difference
per game is nearly four times better at Old Trafford (1.19 to 0.36).

Basic shot profile is similar to the Reds, and one of the best in the league, with 20
shots per game at home, conceding 9.5. Again, a much different story away from
Manchester (13.6 for, 9.4 against).

MUFC have created over 2.0 xGs seven times this season (compared to Liverpools
five).

Klopps team create 0.74 xG difference per game away from Anfield, so marrying up
the respective figures for both sides: Attack: MUFC 1.91 vs 1.54 LFC; Defence: MUFC:
0.72 vs 0.80. Very even. Draw, the most likely result.

Tactical Assessment
My perception: Based purely on the game earlier this season at Anfield, youd think this
version of MUFC is old school Mourinho: unimaginative, drilled beyond belief in preventing
the opposition creating anything, compressing all available space in their own half, direct
balls from deep looking to counter or play off a target man.
Am I right? The correct answer is, it depends!
Individual match analysis:
Manchester United vs Southampton | Mourinhos defensive control
(Spielverlagerung - August 2016)
The compactness of the home side was one of their more impressive qualities, with short
distances being maintained between the chains of Uniteds defensive shape. The width of
the block was fairly narrow as they prioritised the centre whilst, especially within their own
half, there was little distance between Rooney and the defensive line.
Conclusion
As the game progressed and eventually became 2-0, United were increasingly
defensive-minded in their approach. The wingers were more ready to drop closer to their
full-back when in a low-block whilst the attacking strategy became slightly more
conservative. More players were left in deeper positions in order to limit Southamptons
transitions although the likes of Pogba still made his aggressive forward runs.
Whilst all eyes were on Pogba, it was Ibrahimovic who stole the show in an otherwise
uneventful match. From early in the game, United controlled the game through their
defensive performance and, although they didnt create many chances in attack, they could
rely on individual quality to bring about a 2-0 win.

Liverpool vs Man Utd | Mourinhos midfield pressing and 6-3-1 halts Klopps side
(Spielverlagerung - October 2016)
Pressing:
One of the biggest issues Mourinhos Man Utd have encountered thus far has been their
passive defensive style. With a lack of pressing and intensity United have struggled to force
turnovers against several opponents. Furthermore their counter attacking game has not
been strong enough to provide a threat when they eventually do win the ball. This
combination has lead to a number of sterile halves where they have been unable to sustain a
profitable offensive rhythm.
It was therefore a slight surprise to see United pressing Liverpool quite high for much of the
first half. In these high block phases Pogba would join Ibrahimovic in the first line as United
pressed in a 4-4-2 shape. Pobga and Ibrahimovic shared pressing and covering
responsibilities depending on the balls side. The ball-near forward would press the centre
back whilst the ball-far would situationally mark Liverpools deepest midfielder.
Uniteds deep block behaviour:
When forced into deeper positions Uniteds defensive structure was visibly similar to that
used by Mourinho in so called big games. In typical Mourinho fashion the wingers were
tasked with man-marking their respective full-backs which led to a number of different
defensive line permutations between 5-4-1 and 6-3-1. Although there are a number of
issues with defending in this manner it can be tough to break past the defensive line when it
practically covers the entire width of the field.

Make sure you go and read the full articles if you want further explanation of the tactical context
of each individual game. The two matches analysis above were written by @tompayneftbl
(Twitter page for more of his writing.)

Chelsea vs Manchester United | Mourinhos unhappy return

(Outsideoftheboot - October 2016)
Half time switch
At half time, Mourinho switched to a 4-4-2 in a bid to get back into the game. This did
indeed put Manchester United into more attacking positions, but due to the extremely
un-compact shape, United were often left very exposed on the counter attack. With huge
spaces between the lines, Chelsea were regularly able to play through United with ease, duly
finishing the game off on the counter with even the most limited attackers finding space to
attack Uniteds defence, as exemplified by Kante getting on the scoresheet.
Defensively, Chelsea were very happy to adjust and settle into a very deep 5-4-1 block (often
as far as their own 18-yard line) from the beginning of the second half, safe in the
knowledge of their two goal lead. The two defensive lines were very compact, preventing
United from playing through in central areas, whilst Costa stayed forward to offer an outlet
on the counter.

Manchester United stuck to their strategy of attempting to use their height advantage with
persistent crosses into the box. Over the course of the game, some decent openings fell to
the likes of Ibrahimovic and Rashford, but clear chances were not regular enough for United
to have had any real confidence in getting past Courtois, who also happened to have a very
good game. Ibrahimovic was able to isolate Azpilicueta at the back post a couple of times in
the first half, missing a gilt-edged opportunity to score, but Chelsea adjusted in the second
half by making their block narrower when defending crosses, reducing the space that
Ibrahimovic had to attack.
By Siyang Xu
Read his tactical analyses here.

Individual Player Shot Maps by Paul Riley (@footballfactman)

Shot quality is just above average.

However, Ibra has attempted more big chances than any other player this season, as
well as missing more (15 attempted, 10 missed).
The next United player on the list is Marcus Rashford, who has attempted five big
chances and scored three of them.
Rooney has attempted three, but only converted one.

Pogbas shot quality is below average.

Poor ratio of shots outside to inside the box.
Incredible amount of shots that missed the target from the danger zone around the
penalty spot (which Im assuming will be headers from corners?!)

Individual Player Chance Creation Maps By Paul Riley

Valencia is likely to threaten Milner down the Reds left side, and although hes
creating at a similar level to Herrera and Martial, hes yet to create a goal; so that
will wither regess soon or the standard of chance hes creating is sup par.
Henry Mk is likely to replace Herreras role, threading throughballs around the
penalty area - and probably the biggest threat to the Reds back four.
Pogba, Ibrahimovic, Rooney and Mata top the key passes metric for the Red Devils.
Mourinho will pick the former two, but who will get the nod out of Mata,
Mkhitaryan, or Herrera? For Liverpools benefit, I hope it is Rooney; just because of
the knock on impact that might have on their pressing of our back four.

Conclusion
You may be reading this and thinking: so how do I beat Mourinhos Man Utd then? The
answer is, as ever, with any detailed analysis of upcoming individual football matches: it
depends. It depends on the tactics decided upon by Mourinho and Klopp; it depends on how
those tactics interact with each other; it depends on the comparative fatigue levels of each
individual player selected and their direct opponent; it depends on moments of brilliance or
bone-headedness; it depends on the finishing fairy; it depends on the referee sometimes; it
doesnt depend on momentum from the last game. In fact, were more likely to get a positive
result after losing our last match, and visa-versa, so stick that in your momentum pipe and
choke on it. It isnt must win. Although it bloody feels like it.
Some fans will tell you: if we just have x player back in, or buy this one, or that one, then we
will win. These people are charlatans who fail to appreciate the complex nature of
twenty-two individuals interacting with each other; when every single match is always
different to any other that has ever been played in the history of the game. That most of
football is played without the football. Off the ball. And the limitations of this report, or any
in the public sphere, is the lack of data; or where it does exists, its credibility, and more
importantly, how it applies. We cant test or assess or look for context with information we
cant access.
The aim is collate all the best information publicly available, and give fans a fair assessment
of our upcoming opposition.
The working title of this report was: Mourinho is a ***t | How to metaphorically poke him in
the eye with a football team. The biggest point from all the info above, and I might be
delving into Alan Shearer levels of stating the obvious now, but Liverpool need an early goal
to win. The one time Man Utd have been ripped apart this season was when Chelsea scored
in the opening minute. The other occasion was in the first half against Man City at Old
Trafford. In fact, it is fair to say theyve struggled against all the teams in the top six,
especially points-wise. Let us hope that trend continues.
Report compiled by Daniel Rhodes (@
AnalyseSport)