United States Courthouse Thomas Eagleton Federal Building 5th Floor, North Courtroom 111 S. 10th Street St Louis Missouri 63102 Dear Honorable Judge Schermer: I am writing in support of the motion by Mangrove Partners Master Fund, Ltd. for an order appointing an official committee of equity security holders (Docket Number 1731). I am a private investor. I am not an attorney, have not received legal advice, have not received any help preparing this letter, and am not represented by a lawyer or any bankruptcy experts. I am just a simple Peabody shareholder trying to preserve my lawful rights and protect as best I can the hard-earned money that I have invested in Peabody. Earlier in 2016, I owned approximately: a) $________in face value of the 2026 Peabody notes (CUSIP 704549AF1) (2026 Notes), b) call options expiring in January, 2018 giving me the right to buy approximately _______shares of BTU at various strike prices, and c) a position in Peabody common stock. I sold most of the Peabody notes in ________. I also sold the call options rights in _____________. I prematurely sold the 2026 Notes and the options I held because Peabodys management prematurely filed for bankruptcy in the 1st half of 2016. My common stock position in Peabody is now about _______shares. I purchased these interests because I viewed Peabody Energy as the largest and best coal company in the world. I knew Peabody had financial difficulties, but in quarterly earnings calls in late 2015 and early 2016, Peabodys management continued to assure shareholders that they had plenty of runway to meet cash flow requirements with Peabodys cash balances, lines of credit, etc. Furthermore, I had run my own economic models for Peabody and was convinced that when energy prices rebounded to normal levels, Peabody would generate
sufficient cash flow from operations to meet all its debt
obligations with enough left over to provide a good return to its shareholders. Many of Peabodys financial difficulties were short-term in nature due to unusually, temporarily low energy prices following the collapse of oil prices in late 2015 and early 2016 after Saudi Arabias decision not to support oil prices and to allow OPEC oil production to increase at a time when the world oil market was already slightly over-supplied. During 2016, world oil prices collapsed from a 2015 high of ~$107/BBL to as low as ~$25/BBL. The decline in oil prices at this time carried over to other energy products such as natural gas and coal. Henry Hub U.S. natural gas prices dropped from an annual average price of about ~$4.40/MMbtu in 2014 to about $1.60/MMbtu in early 2016. This $1.60 price was the lowest Henry Hub price for natural gas in almost 20 years. Oil and gas prices in early 2016 were extraordinarily low relative to historical prices and were unsustainable because they were well below the incremental cost of finding, drilling, and producing oil and gas from new wells which are needed to 1) replace the natural decline in oil and gas reservoirs, and 2) increase production to meet ever-increasing world-wide demand for oil and gas. Coal price crashed to unsustainable levels in conjunction with the collapse of oil and gas prices in late 2015/early 2016. Oil and natural gas prices have doubled since their early-2016 lows. International metallurgical coal prices have similarly doubled or tripled from their early-2016 lows. Thermal coal prices have also rebounded sharply from their early-to-mid 2016 lows. Many oil, gas, and coal companies stock prices have doubled, tripled and even quadrupled from the early-2016 lows. Furthermore, Peabody had in-place painfully unfavorable hedges on the Australian dollar and diesel fuel that contributed to their temporary stressed financial position in early 2016. It is my understanding that by 2017, almost all of these unfavorable hedges have expired so this should not be a problem for Peabody on a goforward basis. Presented below are several of the reasons why I think
the court should establish an equity committee to
represent Peabodys common shareholders (ticker BTUUQ): 1) The bankruptcy case is large and complex. In 2011, when coal prices were not too dissimilar to where they are now, Peabody had a market capitalization of ~$19 billion (1). Wikipedia says this about Peabody, Peabody Energy Corporation..is the largest private-sector coal company in the world. The coal produced by Peabody Energy fuels approximately 10% of the electricity generated in the United States and 2% of electricity generated throughout the world. In 2014, Peabody Energy recorded sales of 249.8 million tons of coal. Peabody markets coal to electricity generating and industrial customers in more than 25 nations on six continents. As of December 31, 2014, the company had approximately 7.5 billion tons of proven and probable coal reserves. Peabody currently has about 18.5 million shares outstanding and secured and unsecured debt in the neighborhood of $7 to $9 billion. These statistics are large by almost any measure. As to complexity, Peabodys term sheet summarizing its restructuring plan dated December 22, 2016 (Restructuring Proposal) is at least 84 pages long including 1st lien secured creditors, 2nd lien creditors, unsecured creditors, trade creditors, convertible note holders, common stockholders, and several thousand employees in several different countries and continents among the stakeholders. The plan is overly complex and involves discounted future stock rights, penny warrants, and other financial vehicles, some of which appear to require investment of substantial new capital by a select group of Peabodys stakeholders (to the apparent detriment of other equally ranked Peabody stakeholders) which does not appear to be required for Peabody to meet its financial or operational needs but adds to the complexity of determining the real economic split of values among varying classes of stakeholders. 2) There is an active market for the stock. Peabody is actively traded on the OTC market. Yahoo Finance shows that an average volume of 1,070,000 shares traded per
day over the last 3 months.
3) The stock is widely held: Yahoo Finance reports that ~300 institutions hold shares of Peabody and that 83.1% of Peabody shares (and 83.57% of the share float) are held by institutional and mutual fund owners, while 0.6% are held by: a) insiders, and b) 5%+ owners. That would mean that about 16% of the shares, or about 3 million shares, are held by people or entities that are not institutions, mutual funds, insiders, or 5%+ owners. 4) The case is timely: It is my understanding that a large percentage of the debt holders and management are trying to rush this case through the bankruptcy court in an effort to leave the jurisdiction of the bankruptcy court on an overly-expedited timetable which does not give all the parties time to obtain, and possibly refute, all the information, facts and assumptions required to determine the reasonableness of the Restructuring Proposal. Since the case is large and complex with many players and moving parts and it does not appear that management is backing the current shareholders interests, the case is very timely as to current Peabody shareholders. 5) Peabody is not hopelessly insolvent It is my belief that Peabody could generate at least an average of $2.0 billion of EBITDA per year in 2017 and 2018, and therefore could have an enterprise value of $10 billion or more based on a 5x multiple of EBITDA. This amount of EBITDA could meet all of BTUs cash flow needs in 2017 and provide a reasonable basis for refinancing BTU with all debtors receiving 100% on the dollar as to their claims with enough cash and EBITDA to meet all 2018 cash flow requirements. The court and shareholders need full disclosure by management of actual cash flow in December 2016 and January 2017 and an independently created and/or reviewed realistic projection of Q1 2017 cash flow before determining the companys enterprise value. It is my understanding that a $10 billion enterprise value would be over twice the enterprise value that is contained in the Restructuring Proposal. A much larger enterprise value would radically change the Restructuring Proposal and would leave remaining value to the
shareholders, which have been excluded from recovery in
the Restructuring Proposal. It is my understanding that the coal prices used in the Restructuring Proposal are close to the abysmally and unsustainably low prices that prevailed at the start of 2016 and not reflective of current coal prices or those traditionally received in the past or that should reasonably be expected to be received in the future. For example, it is my understanding that the enterprise value established in the Restructuring Proposal was based on Australian metallurgical coal prices which are approximately to 1/3 of Peabodys Australian metallurgical coal price today and of the price that Peabody has traditionally received and could reasonably be expected to receive in the future. A completely independent review of the coal prices used to establish the Peabody enterprise value needs to be performed, and all affected parties, including Peabody shareholders, need to have a voice in that process. Otherwise, certain parties (such as shareholders) might be left completely devoid of their rights to share in the value of Peabody which should be much higher today than it was at the time Peabody filed for bankruptcy due to higher prices and the stabilization of energy and financial markets that has occurred since Peabody filed for bankruptcy protection. 6. There is a reasonable chance for meaningful recovery by shareholders. If after a more thorough and unbiased analysis using past, current and reasonably projected futures prices, Peabodys enterprise value is determined to be closer to $10 billion than the $4+ billion contained in the Restructuring Proposal, all debts could be retired at face value and one to two billion dollars could be left for shareholders. With 18.5 million common shares outstanding, that could result in a share value of $50 to $100 per share vs. the current share price trading range of $2 to $15 per share. Even if the enterprise value were to be set at a level less than $10 billion, but more than that in the Restructuring proposal, there could be some value left over for shareholders depending on the ability to refinance some of Peabodys existing debt or sell some of Peabodys assets now that energy prices are higher and
financial markets have stabilized.
7. Shareholders needs outweigh the costs: If Peabodys enterprise value were to be set at $10 billion, the $1 billion to $2 billion left over for the shareholders after paying off debt, would greatly outweigh the cost of a) establishing an equity committee, and b) making the process of establishing the enterprise value an open and fair process for all current and prospective stakeholders in the Peabody bankruptcy process. As mentioned in item 6 above, even if the enterprise value were to be set at a level less than $10 billion there could be some material value left over for shareholders that would greatly outweigh the costs of establishing an equity committee. 8. Shareholders cannot be adequately represented without an official equity committee: It is my understanding, under the Restructuring Proposal, Peabodys management is set to receive up to 10% of the new shares of Peabody (versus managements current 0.60% ownership) while current Peabody shareholders get nothing. It is clear that Peabodys management has abandoned its shareholders, discarded its fiduciary duty to its equity holders, and in coordination with certain debt holders, is grossly pursuing its own self-enrichment all at the expense of common stock holders, convertible note holders, and small, unsecured debt holders. The only way Peabodys current shareholders can have any meaningful voice in the process and receive the necessary information along with the necessary time to act to secure their rights, is for the court to establish an equity committee. I strongly encourage the court to act fairly in accordance with the law and set up an equity committee. Sincerely,