Articles

Egan Partisan Primaries (Ch 1&7)

Introduction
How issue ownership drives American Politics
o Broad consensuses among Americans: they endorse goals of low taxes
and improved health care
Low taxes = priority for republicans; Improved health care = priority
for democrats
Additionally, Americans consistently credit republicans as better
able to handle taxes and Democrats as better to handle health care
o Two above cases demonstrate the kind of politics and policy making that
accompany central issues in American politics
Aka, consensus issues
A broad national consensus regarding the ultimate goals
associated with them
o Consensus issues politics of issue ownership
The long-term positive associations that exist between individual
consensus issues and Americas two political parties (5)
Aka, which party owns certain issues
Republicans own economic reform, national security,
etc.
Democrats own health care reform, immigration
reform, etc.
Scholars survey Americans to determine which party owns
which issues
o Hypothesis: political campaigns are battles between
parties to raise the salience of issues they own
Evidence is mixed
Candidate messages tend to converge on issues that are
important to the electorate
o 3 possible explanations for why issue ownership
occurs:
Americans agree with the policies of the parties that own issues
Americans believe a particular party is better able to handle an
issue because that party has had a superior performance on the
issue
Stems from the parties issue priorities
Tax cuts generally happen under Republicans, health care
legislation under Democrats

Issue ownership also tells us something about how

the parties govern when they gain power in
Washington
So it doesnt only matter during campaigns/elections
o Issue ownership defined:
Issue ownership describes the long-term positive
associations between political parties and particular
consensus issues in the publics mind--associations created
and reinforced by the parties commitment to prioritizing these
issues with government spending and law making (8-9)
How issue ownership distorts American politics
o Issue ownership is not so beneficial
Weakens the relationship between citizens preferences and public
policies
o Most incumbents conform and embrace views on
party owned issues
When they do so, they are rewarded with status and power
o Elected officials pay less attention to the publics
preferences on their parties owned issues than on
other issues
o Issue ownership = tradeoff for American voters
Americans like how owning parties prioritize consensus issues and
devote government resources toward achieving the goals
associated with these issues
But at the same time, Americans are unsatisfied with the
ideologically rigid policies the parties adopt in pursuit of these goals
o

Conclusion
Issue ownership is relatively steady
o Does not change much over time
o Vast majority of issues over the past 40 years--public believes that one
party is better than the other at handling a specific issue
Associations the public makes between the parties and particular
consensus issues are beneficial to issue-owning parties
Why does issue ownership arise?
o Has its roots in the party's priorities
o Party in power prioritizes their owned issues with federal spending and
legislation
Issue ownership threatens the relationship between citizen preferences and
public policy
o Lawmakers ignore public opinion on these issues when crafting policy
Care more about general party ideology and further advancing their
owned issues
Issue ownership, campaigns and elections
o As candidates campaign, they are bolstered and constrained by their
parties reputations
Issue ownership defines the publics image of candidates

Greater than candidates can change the associations the

public makes between issues and their parties
When issue ownership changes hands
Should change hands when there is a re-sorting of issue activists from
one party to another and a subsequent shift in the priorities of party elites
and voters
Activists within each party effectively force their party
politicians to comply with their demands, creating a cohesive
image for each party
For example, there are republicans who care about health care and
democrats who care about taxes, but they are outnumbered by the
opposite party
Insights on party polarization
Parties are polarized on the nations priorities
Spending and legislation on each partys owned issues more likely
to be observed when it is in power
Polarization occurs in regard to consensus goals, so the consequences for
Americans may be more disconcerting than polarization on nonconsensus issues (abortion, gay rights, etc.)
Parties cant only focus on the issues they own because national
problems will be ignored
President is the one who can go against the grain (and has to)
In order to get support and get reelected, president has to appeal to
broad spectrum of voters
Neutralize the other partys owned issues, while continuing to
satisfy their own partys policy demanders
Consensus vs. non-consensus issues
Consensus issues: those ones which Americans agree on ultimate goals
and also agree that government bears responsibility for achieving them
Agenda setting
Elections are more likely to be won by the party whose owned issues are
salient, and thus institutions are more likely to be controlled by them (229)

Hernson et al Exceeding Expectations

Introduction
As a result of the 2000 presidential election, people had concerns about the
integrity of U.S. election leading to major changes in voting technology.
Newer technology resulted in further changes and within a few years, hundreds
of election jurisdictions changed their voting systems and implemented new
administrative procedures and requirements.
People wondered whether or not the reforms would make things worse in 2008,
especially since the election was expected to have the highest turnout in
decades.

Researchers found that expectations and actual experiences were generally

positive. Voters expressed high levels of overall satisfaction with the election
process.
People who voted via electronic voting and paper ballot expressed nearly
identical levels of overall satisfaction.
Both voters expectations and experiences affect their overall satisfaction.
o Ex: voters whose experiences were relatively negative and who had low
expectations expressed relatively high overall satisfaction compared to
those who had similar experiences but somewhat higher expectations.
Likewise voters whose experiences were relatively positive and had high
expectations expressed somewhat lower overall satisfaction than voters
who had similar experiences and lower expectations.

Theory
Voter satisfaction is related to indicators of a democracys health.
Satisfaction is based on more than the current voting experience. It is also
informed by previous Election Day experiences and voters expectations about
what they will experience at the polls.
The theory of met expectations argues that individuals possess expectations
about future activities and events, and those expectations condition the way in
which they evaluate their experiences.
The central theme in the research is that individuals; expectations need to be met
or exceeded in order for them to have higher levels of satisfaction.
Because minorities express less trust and confidence in the political system and
face more challenges when attempting to vote, one could assume that they
would have lower expectations about upcoming elections.
Another prediction is that partisanship influences ones perspective.
The Winners effect boosts the post-election evaluations of voters who
supported the winning candidate.
Prior voting experience and civic involvement also are likely to influence
expectations and experiences.
Factors related to election administration, including the voting machine and ballot
used, shape voters expectations and experiences.
This article argues that satisfaction with voting is more than simply an
assessment of the experiences itself. Individuals come to the polls with beliefs
about the experience they will have, ranging from concerns with the nuts-andbolts of the voting process to a conviction that they are participating in a larger
exercise that selects a government and shapes the direction of public policy.
They have some expectations that their vote will count and that the
administrative procedures will help them exercise their franchise.
However, such expectations also are tempered by the reality that the
administration of the voting process is performed by government, sometimes
partisan, entities and that long lines, new machines, or problems locating a
polling location might make it difficult to vote.
Data

Researchers used two forms of data: public opinion from the 2008 CCES panel
study and questions on the pre and post-election surveys.
The second form: consists of the ballots and voting systems the respondents
used in 2008.

Expectations Prior to the 2008 Election and Voting Experiences

The American public expressed relatively high expectations, with some specific
reservations and Election Day Experiences were surprisingly positive.
85% of people indicated that they very strongly or strongly agreed that they
expected to be able to cast their vote without assistance. After the election, more
than 90% reported having done so.
More problematic were voters concerns about the confidentiality of their vote.
Voters were less concerned after the election than before it. Post-election, 81%
very strongly or strongly agreed they had cast their ballot in private.
Voting day experiences did not live up to expectations with respect to voter ID
requirements. A large majority of voters expected to be asked to show ID of some
sort, however, only 55% reported actually doing so.
A final concern was the amount of time it takes to vote, but in this case, Election
Day experiences were neither better nor worse than expectations.
79% of voters declared themselves very satisfied, 19% somewhat satisfied and
only 2% dissatisfied.
Voter Expectations
Expectations varied systematically across groups and different forms of election
administration.
Negative past encounters with voting depress the expectations of minority voters.
Blacks and Hispanics were less likely to agree that they would be able to vote
without assistance, and they were substantially less likely to agree that their
votes would be kept confidential, but they were not significantly more likely to
expect ID checks or to wait a long time to vote.
Partisan differences emerge for expectations regarding privacy and showing
voter ID. About 10% more Republicans than Democrats expected to show ID.
There are no significant gender differences, but age and education level played a
role in voters prior experiences and in some of their judgements about the 2008
election.
Prior voting experience, as measured by age, appears to result in voters less
often expecting to show some form of ID.
Education has a positive effect on anticipating voting without assistance and
expecting to vote in privacy.
Voters who used electronic voting systems had lower expectations than those
who used ballot systems when it comes to requiring assistance and privacy.
Other factors like ballot length and design only mattered with respect to the
amount of time individuals expected to wait at the polls.
Deviations from Expectations

Hispanics were more likely to have their expectations met with regard to voting
without assistance due to the low expectations Hispanics expressed prior to
voting.
Republicans, who were more likely to think they would have to show ID, were
less likely to have these expectations met.
Older voters were more likely to have their expectations met regarding privacy.
Individuals who used electronic voting systems were more likely to have their
expectations met with regard to voting without assistance and in privacy than
those who used ballot systems. These expectations were lower than those for
other types of voting systems.

Impact of Expectations on Overall Voting Satisfaction

Voters who required less assistance than expected were more satisfied, voters
who felt they voted in more privacy than expected were more satisfied, and
voters who reported spending more time than expected were less satisfied.
Met expectations theory receives strong empirical support in the context of voting
experiences.
In light of voters relatively high expectations, this means major Election Day
administrative or logistical problems can pose significant risks in terms of voters
assessments. It also indicates that where voters anticipate problems, they will be
significantly more forgiving.
In terms of race, Blacks were pleased on Election Day. This could be a case of
voters being forgiving despite having anticipated problems, but more likely due to
general enthusiasm about Obama weighed heavily in many African Americans
assessments of their overall voting experience.
Using an electronic voting system did not result in being less satisfied with the
voting experience as a whole.
Importance of Indirect Effects
Electronic voting systems users experienced more privacy and required less
assistance than expected, but were more disappointed with the amount of time
voting actually took than ballot voters.
Final analysis: electronic voting systems users anticipate an unfavorable
experience, but generally report that voting using this kind of system exceeded
their expectations.
Republican identification significantly increases satisfaction indirectly.
Race and electronic voting significantly decrease satisfaction indirectly by
depressing expectations.
Age increases satisfaction because it is associated with better voting
experiences than expected.
African Americans expressed higher satisfaction than non-Hispanic whites with
similar expectations and experiences. However, African Americans had lower
expectations and worse experiences than non-Hispanic whites. Consequently,
African Americans probably would have expressed even higher satisfaction had
their expectations and experiences been better.

The total effect of age (the sum of the direct and indirect effects) is statistically
significant. Older voters with similar expectations and experiences expressed
only slightly more satisfaction. But, this is important because older voters had
higher expectations and better experiences and consequently express
significantly higher levels of satisfaction.

Conclusion
In the pre-election wave of the survey, voters possessed relatively high overall
expectations and held high expectations for their ability to use the voting
equipment without assistance. In contrast, voters expressed concerns about the
confidentiality of their votes and the time they would wait to vote.
Expectations varied across population groups. Minority voters generally had
lower expectations about the upcoming voting process, which are informed, in
part, by the greater likelihood of being asked to present an ID, of waiting in long
lines prior to voting, or of having greater difficulties using some voting systems.
Older voters, by contrast possessed higher expectations, perhaps the result of
many previous positive voting experiences.
Pre- election expectations have an impact on Americans overall satisfaction with
the voting experience. While their experiences and their overall levels of
satisfaction were high, voters formed these judgments in part through the
expectations they had developed, perhaps in previous elections or perhaps
through news coverage of the upcoming voting conditions. These expectations
had an effect on overall satisfaction independent of the experiences voters had at
the polls on Election Day.
These results have important implications for research on voting and public
policy in the United States and other democracies as they indicate some of the
limits and possibilities for improving the voting experience.

Too Close to Call?

Objective: The article uses the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections to examine the
forces that affect the timing of networks official state projections and biases on cable
news networks election-night projections controlling for the competitiveness of the
states.

Research has found that early election-night projections can have an effect on
turnout in presidential elections

In 2000 they projected the winner of the Gore vs. Bush election too early

o Ex. Florida was called for Gore before the polls in the panhandle closed
Television networks declared both major candidates winners in Florida at
different times on election night

o Some accused networks of intentionally calling Florida for Gore before polls had
closed to depress turnout in the Republican-dominated Florida panhandle

In 2004 there were no miscalls, but networks stalled in their state-by-state

projection of a national winner

timing of projections is fundamental not only to the study of media, but also to the
study of elections

Scholars suggest, early projections dont necessarily affect voter turnout in a

tremendous way.

In the 2000 election, networks faced intense criticism from the public and from
Congress regarding the incorrect and ill-timed projections
o investigations suggested that the missed calls were due to excessive speed,
combined with overconfidence in experts and a reliance on increasingly dubious polls

Due to the uncertain projections, many questioned the accuracy of the networks
election-night decision desks

Networks initiated internal investigations into election night 2000 and offered
numerous prescriptions for handling future elections

The longer networks wait to project, the more votes are counted, giving networks
more information and certainty with which to broadcast projections

Although media outlets strive for accuracy, evidence to suggest the existence of
media bias:
o Media executives are not ideologically representative of the population and will
therefore report news tainted with their ideological biases
o Media firms are acting in their best interest to slant their coverage to appeal to
segments of a mixed audience
o News firms may demonstrate incumbent or challenger biases
o Media firms are reliant on sources (exit polls, vote tallies, polling history) for
information

Comparing 2000 and 2004, a third of the calls are made more than 2 hours after
the polls have closed.

Due to close races, networks should take to project.

Conclusion: Election-night projections are of concern because evidence suggests they

can shape other states outcomes.

Want a better forecast

-

Obama wasnt talking about the percentage itself but how its changed over time

The economy dictates what both candidates will talk about

Obama spoke about how it is getting better

Romney was we havent come far enough

The state of the economy will dictate the opinions of candidates on the economy

How likely voters will vote for the incumbent if they approve or disapprove of their
current economic state

When we collect these data and use them to model election outcomes alongside
economic indicators, we see that what candidates do and what they say, plays a
significant role in whether economic forecasts prove correct and in how close they come
to the eventual two-party vote

Typically, the candidate who focuses a campaign on the nations economy is the
candidate predicted to win based on a simple economic forecast

Candidates understand the powerful role that the state of the nations economy
plays in American presidential elections and craft their messaging strategies in light of it.

30% of the electorate changed their opinion of national economic trends between
December 2011 and Election Day 2012a share that does not vary significantly by
party.

Bush created the recession and had Obama pick up the state of the country

Romney tried to sway voters into believing it wasnt Bush, but instead Obama
who led to the economic recession.

Even if a candidate is successful at changing peoples minds about the state of

the nations economy, its not clear the payoff is there.

Play nice or pick a fight

 Interest groups seek to provide collective benefits to their membership by

acting strategically across the political system to influence decision
making, including policy implementation.
The focus is on cooperation as a group strategy at implementation and
satisfaction with policy implementation outcomes.
Satisfied organizations are less likely to attempt delaying or defeating
individual HCPs once approved.
Focused specifically on how the policy arena affects the degree of support
or cooperation groups offer the implementation of any particular HCP.
The process and information sharing are key elements to predicting
cooperation and satisfaction policy arenas economic and environmental
interests
Context influences group strategy
Groups want real input into the decision-making process.
The more committed a group to ideological principles, the less satisfied
they are with the solutions, which are likely compromises.

If you have too little opinions, you wont progress

Getting Ready for Day 1

White House offices do not have files from the previous administration waiting for
the president and the incoming White House team to learn from.
Presidential Records Act of 1978 requires that presidential records leave the
White House with the outgoing president.
Johnson met occasionally with the campaign leaders as well as with the
candidate to give them a sense of what he was doing and finding. That way,
there was no conflict among them. The same did not happen in most other
transitions, during which competition developed between the political and
transition operations, such as the Carter and Clinton ones.

The first part of a transition takes place during the primary season when the
candidate designates a person to gather information.

President Truman was the first president to publicly invite his successor to meet
with him to consider transition issues and then call on government departments
and agencies to provide information on the status of programs.

The Presidential Transitions Act of 1963, with updates in 1976, 1988, and 2000,
provides funds for transitions when there is a new president coming into office.
Other than Ronald Reagan, recent presidents have issued more executive orders
in the last two months of their terms than in the first two.

Turnout and Incumbency in Local Elections

A communitys turnout predisposition is referred to here as its turnout

environment.
The turnout environment should affect incumbents opportunities as well as policy
outcomes.
Low-turnout environments enhance the incumbency advantage and produce
policy that is beneficial to subgroups with a strong fiduciary interest in local
politics because they are likely to participate even when voting is onerous.
The makeup of the electorate may differ significantly in high versus low turnout
elections.
Low probability voters tend to have weaker attachments to candidates and
parties.
As the costs of voting increase, those who stand to benefit the least from an
election outcome drop out of the electorate more rapidly than those who stand to
benefit the most.
Higher turnout decreases vote shares for incumbent candidates and parties.
There may be a limit to the number of constituents any elected official can reach
and be responsive to, and these well-attended constituents could make up a
larger share of the electorate where turnout is low
As turnout increases, the electorate contains a higher proportion of unreliable
and unpredictable voters.
As voting becomes more onerous in municipal elections, policy will be more
favorable for groups that have a consistent fiduciary interest in participating e.g.
municipal employees and homeowners.
Constituents are more likely to be interested and knowledgeable about local
politics in smaller communities where voters are more likely to know and support
challengers to office.
Economic downturns can hurt incumbents
When institutions discourage participation more incumbents run for reelection.
In cities where registrars are not required to mail polling locations and when local
elections are not concurrent with national elections, the proportion of incumbents
running is about 2 percentage points higher.
State and local level institutions that decrease barriers to participation increase
turnout.
Not mailing polling place locations is associated with a 5 percentage point
decrease in turnout and non-concurrent elections are associated with a 14 point
decrease.
In low-turnout environments certain subpopulations may be better represented by
government.

11/15- Vavreck Want a Better Forecast? Measure the

Campaign not just the Economy (notes are above)

1. Topic most discussed by candidates in 2012 presidential elections was jobs

1. Lack of jobs, creation of jobs, number of jobs shipped overseas
2. Telling voters about state of nations economy with regard to jobs in
America
3. Romney: real unemployment rate taking into account those struggling for
work or those who have just stopped looking
4. Obama: auto industry in America recuperated and is back on track
1. Focused on change in unemployment rather than rate of
unemployment
b. Elements of election forecasting in relation to competing characterizations of US
economy
i. Change in an economic indicator, relative to its level, better predicts the
incumbent partys share of the two-party vote
ii. Presidential candidates make important campaign decisions based on
state of nations economy at start of election year
c. Variations in candidate behavior to predict election outcomes
i. Variations in state of economy can shift forecasts
ii. Data of campaign effort and intensity alongside economic indicators: we
see that actions and words of candidates given state of economy play
significant role in whether economic forecasts are correct
d. Variations in candidate behavior in 2012 was important in predicting election
outcomes
i. Simple economic forecast before election predicted Obama victory
1. Confidence in Obama victory would have been boosted if they had
known Romney would get nomination and talk mainly about how
economy was not growing fast enough
ii. Messaging strategies are often crafted in light of economy
1. Typically candidates who focuses campaign on economy is
predicted to win; but sometimes candidates not predicted to win
highlight economy
2. Romney focused on jobs and unemployment
1. Since 1948, no candidate predicted to lose based on the
economy, who made economy central message of
campaign, has ever won
3. Survey about peoples perceptions of nations economy and
changes
1. December 2011: 20% of population thought economy had
improved, other 80% was split between thinking it got worse
or stayed the same
1. Not hard to see why Romney focused campaign on
Obamas failure to turn economy
1. Problem: slippage between peoples perception
of economy and voters were blaming Bush not
Obama

2. Respondents: 47% blamed Bush, 32% blamed

Obama, 21% blamed them equally,
3. People that changed their assessment of
economy to benefit Romney were already
supporting him since the beginning
4. Romney gained very little of vote from
changing independents view of economy
b. Candidates who have been challenged by national economic tides and tried to
reshape voters assessments have lost their elections
i. Election outcomes more correlated with objective economic conditions
rather than retrospective assessments
ii. Candidates disadvantaged by national economic conditions are more
likely to win by refocusing the election off of economy and on to something
else

Chapter Notes
1) Chapter 4: Financing Campaigns

Key Terms
o Public funding: campaign funds provided by the government
o Tillman Act: 1907 law banning corporate contributions to political campaigns
o Political action committee (PAC): private group organized to elect political
candidates
o Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA): 1971 law, substantially amended in
1974, that set limits to contributions to federal campaigns, provided for public
funding of presidential election campaigns, mandating contribution disclosure and
finance report filings, established the Federal Election Commission to oversee
finance laws, and set limits on candidate spending. The last of these provisions
was overturned by the Supreme Court
o Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA): 2002 law that prohibited soft money
spending by national, state, and local parties, limited soft money spending by
outside groups, and increased individual contribution limits
o Soft money: money raised outside the limits normally established by campaign
finance laws
o Hard money: money raised in accord with campaign finance laws

Express advocacy: specifically advocating the election or defeat of a candidate

Magic words: words that make an advertisement subject to campaign finance laws
and regulations
o Issue advocacy: advocating a position on a political issue without explicitly
advocating for the election or defeat of a candidate
o Independent expenditure committees: political action committees that can raise
unlimited donations from various sources and then spend money to advocate for
or against candidates
o Super PACs: PACs that can collect unlimited amounts of donations as a
consequence of Citizens United. Super PACs are required to disclose their donors
o 527 organization: officially designated political organization under the tax code,
and required to disclose its contributors to the Internal Revenue Service. These
organizations came to the fore in 2004 the first election after BCRAs ban on soft
money for parties
o 501(C) organizations: organizations that are exempt from federal taxation and
may be able to engage in political activity, subject to certain restrictions
o Buckley v. Valeo: 1976 decision overturning the FECAs limits on spending by
federal candidates as a violation of the First Amendment (spending = speech)
o Clean elections systems: a system of campaign finance whereby candidates who
raise a minimum amount of private donations qualify for public funding from the
government. Once they accept public funding, they cannot spend any more money
raised from private donors
o Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission: 2010 decision holding that under
the First Amendment corporate funding of independent political broadcasts in
candidate elections cannot be limited
Important Notes
o Rules for Donors
Who can give?
Individuals
Organized interest groups
Can donate as long as theyre not tax-exempt groups
Otherwise, federal government would be indirectly
subsidizing political campaigns by allowing groups
to keep money they would have paid in taxes and
then give it to particular candidates
Examples: corporations and labor unions
Charities and churches cannot because theyre taxexempt groups
Cant donate directly to candidates or parties due to
Tillman Act, have to establish separate PACs
Organizations spend money to set up a PAC
But thereafter the PAC must raise money on its own
Ideologically specific organizations have PACs too
Examples: NRA and Planned Parenthood
Political parties and political leaders can establish their own
PACs
o
o

Examples: Democratic Senatorial Campaign

Committee
Individuals donate more money to campaigns than do PACs
Finance laws require disclosure of donors
Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA)
How much can they give and to whom?
BCRA increased limits on donations
Imposed on individuals, political party committees and
PACs
Affect what they can give and total givings to candidates,
parties and PACs
Individuals: $2,700 to any candidate per election, maximum of
$5,400 for primary and general combined
PACs: $5,000 per election to any candidate
Political parties and soft money
BCRA outlawed soft money contributions from political parties
Now national parties can only raise hard money, which is subject
to contribution limits
Independent groups
Independent groups (unaffiliated with political parties or
candidates) are allowed to raise soft money without contribution
limits
This money is spent independently of candidates
On political advertising
3 categories:
Independent expenditure committees aka Super PACs
Not associated with a specific political party,
corporation or interest group
Gather contributions from individuals, corporations
and unions
Can collect donations of unlimited amounts
Required to disclose their donors
527 organizations
Designated as political organizations under tax code
Required to disclose contributors to IRS
Donations are not subject to contribution limits
501(C) organizations
Nonprofit organizations, not required to pay taxes
Not required to disclose donors
o Rules for Spenders
Spenders = candidates, parties, PACs and independent groups
How much can they spend?
Contributions are limited, but spending is not
Buckley v. Valeo

Candidates can spend an unlimited amount on themselves (selffinance)

Spending can only be limited in presidential elections but only
with the agreement of the candidates
When and how independent groups may campaign?
Few restrictions
More restrictions on independent groups than on the
candidates or parties
All spending has to be independent of candidate and/or party
(cannot consult or work together)
Content of advertising
Campaign Finance Rules and Political Strategy
o Citizens
Donations hold candidates accountable, another way to participate in the
process and express your opinions
o Candidates
Campaign finance rules profoundly affect candidates
Since theres not spending limits, theres an incentive for candidates to
raise and spend as much as possible
But by limiting the amount of each donation, it makes it difficult to
raise money because candidates have to raise from a larger amount
of donors
Campaign finance system significantly advantages incumbents and
wealthy candidates
But donations from outside donors produce more votes (so in
candidates best interest to fundraise)
o Political Parties and Interest Groups
Access strategy--groups that find their interest well served by current
office holders
Replacement strategy--groups that tend to have a more ideological agenda,
further from the average office holder
The Debate over Campaign Finance Reform
o Two important values underlying campaign finance laws:
freedom of speech and guarding against corruption
All about the trade-off/balance

Chapter 6: Political Parties

Key Terms
o Political parties: group of people with shared interest of electing public officials
under a common label
o Party-in-the-electorate: the group of citizens who identify with a political party or
regularly support candidates from one party

Party-as-organization: the institutions, professionals and activists that administer

party affairs, including the official bodies that raise funds and create the rules for
the party
o Party-in-government: the members of a party who hold public office
o Coordinated expenditures: money that political parties spend to help cover a
candidates campaign costs in a federal election. Such expenditures are limited by
law
o Party identification: a citizens allegiance to one of the political parties, including
both party preference and level of commitment
Important Notes
o What are political parties and how are they organized?
Amorphous groups
Party membership is unclear
Party-in-the-electorate: citizens who identify as part of the party
Party-as-organization: DNC, RNC
Party-in-government: leadership PACs and interest groups
o Why do we have parties?
Aggregate and articulate interests
Organize coalitions
Enable different groups to unite under umbrellas
Coordinate elections and mobilize voters
Party labels make it easier for voters to form opinions about
candidates
Coordinate the legislative process
Voters know how vote will translate to public policy
Facilitate collective political action
Join together in pursuit of shared goals
o The Democratic and Republican Parties
In both parties, activists and donors are more ideologically consistent with
their party than those who merely identify with it
o What about third parties?
Most important difficulties in US elections are posed by the rules of the
electoral system
Use of single-member districts and plurality elections favors
congressional candidates from the two major parties
o What roles do parties play in campaigns?
Role of the Party-in-the-Electorate
Most Americans identify with or lean towards one party
Forms the volunteer base of each party
Role of the Party-as-Organization
Central role in political campaigns
Recruit candidates and raise money for them
Party officials can influence primary results with money or
endorsements
Role of Party-in-Government
o

Candidates with a party label are tied to the partys elected leaders
and are seen as opposing the agenda of the opposite party
o Rules, Reality and Party Strategies
Rules that affect parties: election laws and campaign finance laws
Parties are allowed to coordinate their campaign expenditures with
the candidates they support
Parties are constrained but current contexts/realities
Economy, partisan balance, etc.
o Are political parties in decline?
Not in government
Have become more unified in the last 40 years
Party identification is becoming more important in congressional,
presidential and state elections
Party leaders dont control nominees
o Party Evolution and Polarization
Changes in the issue positions and social coalitions
Geographic change: the move of the South from democratic to
republican
Geographically separated as well
Parties are moving further and further apart on ideological spectrum
o Evaluating Political Parties
Parties inform voters, but can also manipulate them
Competitive between each other
Parties try to persuade voters, not start conversations

Chapter 7: Interest Groups

Key Terms
o Interest group: a collection of people with the shared goal of influencing public
policy that does not run its own candidates for offices
o Constituencies: subsets for the American public for which interest groups or
candidates claim to speak, such as ethnic or religious groups
o Ballot initiative campaigns: campaigns surrounding specific propositions put
directly to voters for their approval. Since there are no candidates, interest groups
are the main actors in influencing voters
o Campaign agenda: the issue areas discussed during a campaign
Important Notes
o Types of Interest Groups
Interest groups do not run their own candidates for office
Seek more particular policy goals than do parties
Not always aligned with one party
Many assist or attempt to influence party members of both parties
Do not participate in elections at all
Focused on lobbying policy makers after they are elected
But do participate in campaigns

Types:
Businesses/Corporations
Examples: National Association of Manufacturers,
American Farm Bureau Federation
Most dont have PACs, make campaign contributions or air
own advertisements
Professional associations/Occupations
Examples: American Medical Association, American Bar
Association
Most are small and dont participate in campaigns
Labor unions
Examples: American Federation of State, County, and
Municipal Employees, Service Employees International
Union
Regularly participate in campaigns, usually support
Democratic candidates
Social groups/Ideological perspectives
Examples: NAACP, American Conservative Union
Single issue
Example: NRA
More likely to participate in elections than economic
groups, but are less numerous and have fewer resources
Many interest groups share close ties to a party
o Why does the US have so many interest groups?
Number of interest groups has grown since the 1960s
Due to expansion of government
Take in more responsibilities regulate more entities provide
resources to more people
Creates incentive to organize to receive more favorable
regulations and resources
Improved strategies for organizational maintenance
Example: direct mail fundraising
Prominent social movements have served as models for other groups to
mobilize
Example: Civil Rights Movement
Groups form as responses to other groups
Proliferation of interest groups is the nature of the rules concerning these
groups
Campaign finance laws encourage organizations to create separate
affiliated groups for distinct purposes
Groups create new organizations with names designed to appeal to
the electorate
Because they have to disclose sponsors in advertisements
Laws encourage the same groups of people to create multiple
organizations for legal and public relations purposes

More interest groups more interest group campaigning

o How are interest groups involved in campaigns?
Many groups contribute money and endorse candidates
Campaign contributions are easiest to track because of donor
disclosure requirements
Donate to candidates and parties via their PACs
But PACs donate less money to campaigns than do
individuals (these individuals are employees of
corporations with political interests)
Running their own ad campaigns
More likely to be negative than those aired by candidates
Interest groups arent as concerned with their reputation
(compared with the candidates) and are willing to risk
backlash from negative advertising
More likely to focus on policy issues than candidate
advertisements
Candidates share biographies
Interest groups make policies they care about central to
campaign
Social media/emailing
Mobilize their members to support causes or candidates via
donations
Interest groups claim to speak for broader constituencies (specific groups
of people)
Interest Groups in Initiative Campaigns
Ballot initiative campaigns
Interest groups organize to get signatures to get an initiative
on the ballot
Why do some interest groups avoid campaigns?
Many traditional interest groups avoid spending money on political
campaigns
Due to differences in goals of interest groups, compared to parties
and candidates
Interest groups primary concerns are policy outcomes
Not who holds power
Can lobby legislators after they are elected
Most spend money on lobbying rather than on campaigns
But the ones who do get involved in campaigns are much
more partisan (which isnt representative of interest groups
in general)
o Rules, Reality, and Interest Group Strategies
Groups are prohibited from coordinating their advertising or mobilization
efforts with candidates

Candidates cant use resources of interest groups, unless they are

counted as contributions (which are subject to disclosure and
contribution limits)
Tax status may limit groups from publicly endorsing candidates or
engaging in campaign activity
Strategies depend on how their agenda and issue positions correspond to
those of incumbent politicians
o Interest Group Campaign Influence
Can influence outcomes where other campaigning is limited
Can interest groups deliver constituency votes?
Can in local elections where voters know more about their
neighborhood association than they know about the candidates
Tend to exaggerate their ability to deliver votes for a candidate
Can interest groups change the campaign agenda?
Interest groups hope to change the campaign agenda--the issues at
the heart of the campaign
By getting voters to focus on the issues that matter to the
groups
o Evaluating Interest Groups
Sometimes called special interests
Likely to represent constituencies that are wealthier and have more to gain
from government policy, which heightens inequalities in political
influence
Advance free speech
Empower individuals and organizations
Highlight concerns of voters and advocate views other than those
that the candidates
Add information, but tend to persuade rather than inform voters
Interest groups deserve free speech protection because they advocate for
the concerns of their supporters

Chapter 10: Congressional Campaigns

I) Midterm election 2014

Republicans controlled house 234/435

o
Democrats only hope not making majority larger

Senate
o
55/100 seats including 2 independents (Dem)
o
targeted Mitch McConnell

20 yrs

minority leader since 2006

opponent Grimes- up and comer

McConnell won by 15 percent ( 6 % in polls)

Reps won control of the house and senate

o
Unpopular president
o
Demo incumbents retiring

Conclusion
o
Incumbents advantage
II) Rules, Reality, and who runs for Congress

Who can run?

o
Minimum age
o
Us citizen for x number of years
o
Name on ballot: Either collect a filing fee, or collect x number of signatures

Why people run when they do

o
Good chance of winning
o
Strong connection to the based
o
If a candidate loses connections may be lost (strategy is important)

Impact of congressional campaign depends on the particular rules governing the

election

even in 2010 Obama unpopular bad econ, unusually high number of incumbents
were defeated- 85%-won reelection

redistricting can cause incumbents to retire

o
want to avoid new constituency
o
districts usually draw to protect incumbents from both parties
Incumbent- person who already occupies the office

2014- 92% of incumbents won reelection

o
retire
o
health or scandal

When incumbents decide to retire this creates an open seat

Quality challenger- a candidate with the experience and backing necessary to

run a competitive campaign

Political amateur- candidates with no ptx experience, unlikely to win

If an incumbent has been winning by smaller margins, or struggling to make

money potential challengers may assume they are vulnerable- the biggest indication of
this is if they recruit the candidate to run

Challengers have to figure out if they will be supported by their own partybiggest indication party recruits them to run
o
Hill committee- National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC),
National Democratic Senatorial Committee (DSCC), National Republican Congressional
Committee (NRCC), and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)
o
most people who run are well connected, wealthy, white, and educated
( also commonly male)

typically work in business, law, or ptx

thus, congress unrepresentative of constituency

III) Campaign Organization and Funding

candidate needs a staff- need to raise money and put together an organization

most candidate are left to figure this out even if they have the parties support

spending and size of organization varies

not eligible for public funding

o
must use PACs to raise money/ individuals/ or are self financed
o
big races- 2/3 of funding out of state
o
people tend to use there money where it is likely to have the most effect

( close races)
IV) The Primary election

even more rare an incumbent has a challenger

open seat primaries occur when a partys incumbent has retired or if the party out
of power choses someone to challenge the incumbent

parties rarely get involved

focus is more on issues ideological in nature as not to alienate voters in the

primary
o
cant switch positions- flip-flop
V) The General Election

incumbent campaigns start earlier

most people know nothing about congressional candidates

a. Developing a campaign message
o
Community leaders or have prior ptx experience
o
Extensive social and ptx network
o
Developing their message from the organizations whose
endorsements they seek
o
Hire a pollster
o
Address local and national issues

Local issues should be dominate

If local issues dominate the campaign both candidate

message might end up very similar

If national issues dominate they may have similar agendas,

but different approaches to them
b. Communicating the Message
o
Use mail and newspaper, radio, and tv ads
o
Tvs far less common then in the presidential race, can be a waste of
money
o
Hold press conferences and give speeches, covered by local media
c. Mobilizing Voters
o
Similar to presidential campaign- mailers, phone calls, neighborhood
canvassing
o
Main difference the size and sophistication of their mobilization drives
o
Voter turnout during presidential races higher, as congress race on the
same ballot
d. The Role of the Parties and the Hill Committees
o
Target close house and senate races
o
Defend seats of members who are leaving office
o
Start with a longer list of races and shorten it as time goes on
o
In races where they are involved the committee
o
make a direct contribution
o
coordinate expenditures with the candidate
o
make an independent expenditure without a candidates involvement
o
coordinated expenditures- involve collaboration between the committee
and the candidate or rep od the candidate
o
usually spend on services that are given to a candidate directly or

performed by a ptx consultant

o
independent expenditures made without consulting or coordinating with a
candidate
o
Buckley v Valeo- expenditures can not be limited in anyway

Money =speech
o
Help candidate purchase campaign communications and provide technical
expert
VI) The Incumbency Advantage

Vote share earned by an incumbent compare to what a non-incumbent would

have earned if he or she had run

Reasons
o
Greater ptx experience
o
Easier time getting money

Most challengers cant match incumbent donations

o
Familiarity to voters
o
Franking privilege- allows members of congress to send mail to
constituents without postage (cant be used for campaign purposes)
o
Casework- involves helping constituents deal with government
bureaucracies
o
Premise devil they know rather then the one they dont
o
Personal vote- portion of an elected officials vote share that can be
attributed to their relationship with constituents
o
Incumbency advantage increase overtime

Growth in local tv station

Congress given themselves more official resources

Supreme court reform redistricting

o
Decreased since 90s

Nationalism- voters more partisan

VII) The Declining Competitiveness of Congressional Elections

10 percent of seats competitive

reasons
o
increased incumbency power
o
increasing party loyalty

consequences
o
First, a decline in competitiveness can undermine democratic
accountability.
o
declining competitiveness can prevent the demographics of Congress
from changing to reflect the electorate.
o
the demographics of a state or district can change during an incumbents
tenure

argument this might not matter as long as the over makeup of congress can
change

reforms
o
term limits
o
allowing public financing
o
redistricting

Chapter 11: State and Local Campaigns

State and local political offices and election laws often differ from their federal
counterparts, and these differences affect campaign strategies
National political realities shape both candidate strategy in and the outcomes of
state and local races.
State and local campaigns are increasingly adopting the techniques of national
campaigns, and thereby becoming more expensive and professionalized.
At the same time, many state and local campaigns attract scant media attention
and require little fund-raising, thereby necessitating very different campaign
strategies and tactics.
Because state and local elections are largely invisible to most voters and to the
media, small groups of activists may gain additional influence in these races.

Rules and Reality in Local Elections

Local elections typically operate under a very different set of rules than state and
federal elections, and may occur in a different context or reality.
Three important ways in which local electoral rules differ from the electoral rules
that operate at other levels of government are
1. The use of nonpartisan ballots
2. At large elections
3. Off cycle elections

Rules and Reality in State Elections

Certain rules distinguish state elections from both local and federal elections.
Many states use term limits, which have implications for both aspiring
officeholders and incumbents
Term limits: many state elections are affected by a rule that members of
Congress never confront- term limits.The most common limit for governors is two
term limits. Statewide officers therefore see more turnover than either the US
House or Senate where incumbents can accrue a considerable advantage from
their years of service.
Legislative Professionalism: One category of rules concerns the
professionalism of the legislature. Congress is perhaps the most salient model
of a professional legislature: full-time job that comes with a substantial salary and
staff. State legislatures are far less professional. Legislatures that are not as
professionalized are sometimes called citizen legislatures. The professionalism
of the legislature has a two-edged effect on the incumbency advantage. The
more professionalized the more likely they are to attract challengers.

Characteristics of the Electorate

One reason why state and local elections are so interesting is that state
electorate differ dramatically from one another. For example, candidates who
reside in districts with more independent voters will find there are more voters
that can be persuaded.
State party organizations across the country differ dramatically in terms of their
strength, with Republicans generally being stronger organizationally than
Democrats. State parties have adapted themselves to this era of candidatecentered campaigns, by reinventing themselves as service organizations that
provide candidates with important campaign resources.
Elections for state offices, like those for president or for Congress are strongly
affected by fundamental factors such as the state of economy. State elections are
interesting in that we are more concerned on how these states are particularly
affected by factors outside of the state or locality.
Candidate for state and local offices can be helped by the presence of higher
profile candidates on the ballot, such as candidates for president. What happens
when more visible candidates are on the ballot? They may create a coattails
effect: less visible candidates will ride the coattails of a more visible
popular candidate of the same party who is on the ballot, and thereby do
better in the polls.
Ballot initiatives and referenda are proposals placed on the ballot that allow
citizens to change law and public policy. This mode of decision making is
sometimes called direct democracy because such measures are voted on
directly by citizens rather than by elected representatives.
Retention elections are referenda on sitting judges in which voters decide
whether judges should remain on the bench.

Sides et al. Chapter 14

Democracy in Action or a Broken System?

o The most important role political campaigns play in a democracy is to
provide citizens with information to help them make a choice on Election
Day.
o Campaigns in the U.S. are not perfect, but they facilitate important
democratic processes.
Campaigns and Democratic Values
o Stealth candidates refuse to campaign in the traditional sensethat is, by
seeking party endorsements, making public appearances, and
canvassing, precisely because they want to avoid questions from the
press and keep their controversial views hidden from voters.
o Free choice
A choice of at least two candidates.
Citizens must play a role in determining the final set of candidate
choices.
No intimidation, manipulation, or coercion of citizens.

Equality
The votes of citizens should have an equal impact on election
outcomes.
All candidates should be able to disseminate similar amounts of
information.
The rules governing campaigns and elections must apply equally to
all candidates.
Preserving equal political influence requires that voters possess
identical information about the choices confronting them on Election
Day.
o Deliberation
Large volume of information available to ensure that citizens
receive at least a portion of it.
Second, voters must be exposed to information from diverse
sources, including candidates, parties, and interest groups, so that
their views are not biased because they received information from
only one side.
Third, campaigns should provide reasons for supporting or
opposing a particular candidate.
Deliberation demands accountability.
o Freedom of speech
Free choice requires contestation, meaning that an election must
feature at least two candidates, and that citizens control the
nomination process.
Political equality requires that citizens receive equivalent amounts
of information about candidates and that the rules and regulations
governing campaigns apply equally to all candidates.
Deliberation also demands that candidates offer clear reasons for
their positions and engage the arguments of their opponents.
The Reality of Political Campaigns
o What do citizens want from campaigns?
Those who are interested in and informed about politics tend to
favor more substantive and interactive campaignsincluding
candidate debates, town hall meetings where candidates interact
with citizens, and, in general, more discussion of policy issues.
Those who are less interested in politics, however, tend to favor
campaigns that demand less of them, providing them with simple
cues that enable them to make choices with minimal time and
effort.
The fact that citizens do not necessarily agree about the ideal
campaign makes it complicated to reform campaigns.
o How do American campaigns measure up?
Americans may actually create incentives for candidates to do the
things that Americans claim to dislike.
Free choice
o

Coercion or intimidation of voters in America is now quite

rare.
Television news programs include ad watch segments in
which they dissect candidate advertising.
Although citizens can now vote in primaries for all partisan
offices, individuals who want to run in a primary must
demonstrate their ability to raise money and earn
endorsements from party elites, especially to participate in
primaries for higher offices.
Invisible primarythat is, the race for cash and
endorsements that proves one is a viable candidate. Party
elites have been largely successful in regaining control of
this process.
A competitive election can help citizens learn because the
candidates have more money to buy advertisements and the
media have more of an incentive to cover the election.
Electoral competitiveness is declining in House and Senate
races, in state legislative elections, and in most primary
elections.
Political equality
Competitive elections in the United States produce the
highest levels of political equality.
Political candidates, however, might not deserve equal
resources: one of the candidates might actually be better for
the job.
Another requirement of political equality is that the rules and
regulations governing our electoral processes apply to all
candidates equally.
Major-party candidates who run for any office in this country
must abide by the same rules and regulations.
Deliberation
Deliberation depends on both the quantity and quality of
information provided to citizens as well as the level of citizen
engagement.
The quantity of information depends on the competitiveness
of the election.
The quality of information depends on whether candidates
address similar issues, offer specific positions on those
issues, and provide the reasoning for their positions.
In competitive elections, candidates are much more likely to
talk about the same issuesand thus engage in a true
dialogueduring the campaign. They are also more likely to
offer specific statements of their issue positions.
Yet, even if campaigns provide a high-volume of balanced,
diverse, and truthful information about all the candidates, an

election cannot be truly deliberative unless citizens are

engaged and making use of that information.
Reforming Campaigns
Making all elections publically financed
Providing candidates with public financing would enhance political
equality because it would help underfunded challengers compete
with well-heeled incumbents.
Improve individual free choice by encouraging more people to run
for office and ensuring that more elections are contested.
The effects depend on the amount of public funding provided.
Fewer than 12 percent of U.S. citizens filing federal tax returns
typically check the box on their tax form indicating that they would
like to donate $3 to the Presidential Election Campaign Fund (the
source of public funding for presidential candidates).
Making campaign donations anonymous
Donation booth: just as ballots are cast in secret in the voting
booth, donations would be made in secret as well.
Donors cant prove that they donated to a candidates campaign,
thereby eliminating the possibility of political favors.
Limiting campaign spending
Citizens support limits on campaign spending.
The Supreme Court has ruled that spending limits are a violation of
free speech and, consequently, cannot be imposed on candidates.
Reforming the redistricting process
Redistricting has been linked to two trends: the increase in the
incumbency advantage and the decrease in electoral
competitiveness.
Surveys show that Americans who have an opinion about
redistricting procedures tend to believe that district lines drawn by
independent commissions are fairer than those drawn by state
legislatures, but 40 percent of those surveyed had no opinion on
the topic.
The biggest obstacle to adoption of redistricting reform is the low
salience of the topic for voters.
Reforming or abolishing the electoral college in presidential elections
Electoral College reformers tend to fall into one of two categories:
those who would abolish or effectively bypass it; and those who
would simply eliminate the winner-take-all rulewhere the winner
takes all of the states electorsin exchange for a more
representative allocation of electoral votes.
Making election administration neutral
Most election officials in the United States are party loyalists.
A Democracy Index that would rank all states and localities based
on election performance.
Increasing opportunities for deliberation

Deliberative polls, which were developed in the United States and

have been used around the world, begin by identifying and
interviewing a random sample of citizens about some set of issues
or candidates.
Deliberation Day, in which citizens are given paid time off from work
to attend meetings to discuss the upcoming election.
Citizen juriesrandomly selected panels of people who deliberate
for several days about the choices in an electionare used to
develop recommendations on which ballot measures and
candidates to support.

Too Close to Call?

Objective: The article uses the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections to examine the
forces that affect the timing of networks official state projections and biases on cable
news networks election-night projections controlling for the competitiveness of the
states.

Research has found that early election-night projections can have an effect on
turnout in presidential elections

In 2000 they projected the winner of the Gore vs. Bush election too early

o Ex. Florida was called for Gore before the polls in the panhandle closed
Television networks declared both major candidates winners in Florida at
different times on election night
o Some accused networks of intentionally calling Florida for Gore before polls had
closed to depress turnout in the Republican-dominated Florida panhandle

In 2004 there were no miscalls, but networks stalled in their state-by-state

projection of a national winner

timing of projections is fundamental not only to the study of media, but also to the
study of elections

Scholars suggest, early projections dont necessarily affect voter turnout in a

tremendous way.

In the 2000 election, networks faced intense criticism from the public and from
Congress regarding the incorrect and ill-timed projections
o investigations suggested that the missed calls were due to excessive speed,
combined with overconfidence in experts and a reliance on increasingly dubious polls

Due to the uncertain projections, many questioned the accuracy of the networks
election-night decision desks

Networks initiated internal investigations into election night 2000 and offered
numerous prescriptions for handling future elections

The longer networks wait to project, the more votes are counted, giving networks
more information and certainty with which to broadcast projections

Although media outlets strive for accuracy, evidence to suggest the existence of
media bias:
o Media executives are not ideologically representative of the population and will
therefore report news tainted with their ideological biases
o Media firms are acting in their best interest to slant their coverage to appeal to
segments of a mixed audience
o News firms may demonstrate incumbent or challenger biases
o Media firms are reliant on sources (exit polls, vote tallies, polling history) for
information

Comparing 2000 and 2004, a third of the calls are made more than 2 hours after
the polls have closed.

Due to close races, networks should take to project.

Conclusion: Election-night projections are of concern because evidence suggests they

can shape other states outcomes.

Want a better forecast

-

Obama wasnt talking about the percentage itself but how its changed over time

The economy dictates what both candidates will talk about

Obama spoke about how it is getting better

Romney was we havent come far enough

The state of the economy will dictate the opinions of candidates on the economy

How likely voters will vote for the incumbent if they approve or disapprove of their
current economic state

When we collect these data and use them to model election outcomes alongside
economic indicators, we see that what candidates do and what they say, plays a
significant role in whether economic forecasts prove correct and in how close they come
to the eventual two-party vote

Typically, the candidate who focuses a campaign on the nations economy is the
candidate predicted to win based on a simple economic forecast

Candidates understand the powerful role that the state of the nations economy
plays in American presidential elections and craft their messaging strategies in light of it.

30% of the electorate changed their opinion of national economic trends between
December 2011 and Election Day 2012a share that does not vary significantly by
party.

Bush created the recession and had Obama pick up the state of the country

Romney tried to sway voters into believing it wasnt Bush, but instead Obama
who led to the economic recession.

Even if a candidate is successful at changing peoples minds about the state of

the nations economy, its not clear the payoff is there.

Play nice or pick a fight

Interest groups seek to provide collective benefits to their membership by
acting strategically across the political system to influence decision
making, including policy implementation.
The focus is on cooperation as a group strategy at implementation and
satisfaction with policy implementation outcomes.
Satisfied organizations are less likely to attempt delaying or defeating
individual HCPs once approved.
Focused specifically on how the policy arena affects the degree of support
or cooperation groups offer the implementation of any particular HCP.
The process and information sharing are key elements to predicting
cooperation and satisfaction policy arenas economic and environmental
interests
Context influences group strategy
Groups want real input into the decision-making process.
The more committed a group to ideological principles, the less satisfied
they are with the solutions, which are likely compromises.

If you have too little opinions, you wont progress

Getting Ready for Day 1

White House offices do not have files from the previous administration waiting for
the president and the incoming White House team to learn from.
Presidential Records Act of 1978 requires that presidential records leave the
White House with the outgoing president.
Johnson met occasionally with the campaign leaders as well as with the
candidate to give them a sense of what he was doing and finding. That way,
there was no conflict among them. The same did not happen in most other
transitions, during which competition developed between the political and
transition operations, such as the Carter and Clinton ones.

The first part of a transition takes place during the primary season when the
candidate designates a person to gather information.

President Truman was the first president to publicly invite his successor to meet
with him to consider transition issues and then call on government departments
and agencies to provide information on the status of programs.

The Presidential Transitions Act of 1963, with updates in 1976, 1988, and 2000,
provides funds for transitions when there is a new president coming into office.
Other than Ronald Reagan, recent presidents have issued more executive orders
in the last two months of their terms than in the first two.

Turnout and Incumbency in Local Elections

A communitys turnout predisposition is referred to here as its turnout

environment.
The turnout environment should affect incumbents opportunities as well as policy
outcomes.
Low-turnout environments enhance the incumbency advantage and produce
policy that is beneficial to subgroups with a strong fiduciary interest in local
politics because they are likely to participate even when voting is onerous.
The makeup of the electorate may differ significantly in high versus low turnout
elections.
Low probability voters tend to have weaker attachments to candidates and
parties.
As the costs of voting increase, those who stand to benefit the least from an
election outcome drop out of the electorate more rapidly than those who stand to
benefit the most.
Higher turnout decreases vote shares for incumbent candidates and parties.
There may be a limit to the number of constituents any elected official can reach
and be responsive to, and these well-attended constituents could make up a

larger share of the electorate where turnout is low

As turnout increases, the electorate contains a higher proportion of unreliable

and unpredictable voters.
As voting becomes more onerous in municipal elections, policy will be more
favorable for groups that have a consistent fiduciary interest in participating e.g.
municipal employees and homeowners.
Constituents are more likely to be interested and knowledgeable about local
politics in smaller communities where voters are more likely to know and support
challengers to office.
Economic downturns can hurt incumbents
When institutions discourage participation more incumbents run for reelection.
In cities where registrars are not required to mail polling locations and when local
elections are not concurrent with national elections, the proportion of incumbents
running is about 2 percentage points higher.
State and local level institutions that decrease barriers to participation increase
turnout.
Not mailing polling place locations is associated with a 5 percentage point
decrease in turnout and non-concurrent elections are associated with a 14 point
decrease.
In low-turnout environments certain subpopulations may be better represented by
government.

11/15- Vavreck Want a Better Forecast? Measure the Campaign not

just the Economy (notes are above)
2. Topic most discussed by candidates in 2012 presidential elections was jobs
5. Lack of jobs, creation of jobs, number of jobs shipped overseas
6. Telling voters about state of nations economy with regard to jobs in
America
7. Romney: real unemployment rate taking into account those struggling for
work or those who have just stopped looking
8. Obama: auto industry in America recuperated and is back on track
4. Focused on change in unemployment rather than rate of
unemployment
e. Elements of election forecasting in relation to competing characterizations of US
economy
i. Change in an economic indicator, relative to its level, better predicts the
incumbent partys share of the two-party vote
ii. Presidential candidates make important campaign decisions based on
state of nations economy at start of election year
b. Variations in candidate behavior to predict election outcomes
i. Variations in state of economy can shift forecasts

ii.

Data of campaign effort and intensity alongside economic indicators: we

see that actions and words of candidates given state of economy play
significant role in whether economic forecasts are correct
b. Variations in candidate behavior in 2012 was important in predicting election
outcomes
i. Simple economic forecast before election predicted Obama victory
1. Confidence in Obama victory would have been boosted if they had
known Romney would get nomination and talk mainly about how
economy was not growing fast enough
ii. Messaging strategies are often crafted in light of economy
1. Typically candidates who focuses campaign on economy is
predicted to win; but sometimes candidates not predicted to win
highlight economy
2. Romney focused on jobs and unemployment
1. Since 1948, no candidate predicted to lose based on the
economy, who made economy central message of
campaign, has ever won
3. Survey about peoples perceptions of nations economy and
changes
1. December 2011: 20% of population thought economy had
improved, other 80% was split between thinking it got worse
or stayed the same
2. Not hard to see why Romney focused campaign on
Obamas failure to turn economy
1. Problem: slippage between peoples perception
of economy and voters were blaming Bush not
Obama
2. Respondents: 47% blamed Bush, 32% blamed
Obama, 21% blamed them equally,
3. People that changed their assessment of
economy to benefit Romney were already
supporting him since the beginning
4. Romney gained very little of vote from
changing independents view of economy
c. Candidates who have been challenged by national economic tides and tried to
reshape voters assessments have lost their elections
i. Election outcomes more correlated with objective economic conditions
rather than retrospective assessments
ii. Candidates disadvantaged by national economic conditions are more
likely to win by refocusing the election off of economy and on to something
else

Chapter 4: Financing Campaigns

Key Terms
o Public funding: campaign funds provided by the government

Tillman Act: 1907 law banning corporate contributions to political campaigns

Political action committee (PAC): private group organized to elect political
candidates
o Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA): 1971 law, substantially amended in
1974, that set limits to contributions to federal campaigns, provided for public
funding of presidential election campaigns, mandating contribution disclosure and
finance report filings, established the Federal Election Commission to oversee
finance laws, and set limits on candidate spending. The last of these provisions
was overturned by the Supreme Court
o Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA): 2002 law that prohibited soft money
spending by national, state, and local parties, limited soft money spending by
outside groups, and increased individual contribution limits
o Soft money: money raised outside the limits normally established by campaign
finance laws
o Hard money: money raised in accord with campaign finance laws
o Express advocacy: specifically advocating the election or defeat of a candidate
o Magic words: words that make an advertisement subject to campaign finance laws
and regulations
o Issue advocacy: advocating a position on a political issue without explicitly
advocating for the election or defeat of a candidate
o Independent expenditure committees: political action committees that can raise
unlimited donations from various sources and then spend money to advocate for
or against candidates
o Super PACs: PACs that can collect unlimited amounts of donations as a
consequence of Citizens United. Super PACs are required to disclose their donors
o 527 organization: officially designated political organization under the tax code,
and required to disclose its contributors to the Internal Revenue Service. These
organizations came to the fore in 2004 the first election after BCRAs ban on soft
money for parties
o 501(C) organizations: organizations that are exempt from federal taxation and
may be able to engage in political activity, subject to certain restrictions
o Buckley v. Valeo: 1976 decision overturning the FECAs limits on spending by
federal candidates as a violation of the First Amendment (spending = speech)
o Clean elections systems: a system of campaign finance whereby candidates who
raise a minimum amount of private donations qualify for public funding from the
government. Once they accept public funding, they cannot spend any more money
raised from private donors
o Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission: 2010 decision holding that under
the First Amendment corporate funding of independent political broadcasts in
candidate elections cannot be limited
Important Notes
o Rules for Donors
Who can give?
Individuals
Organized interest groups
Can donate as long as theyre not tax-exempt groups
o
o

Otherwise, federal government would be indirectly

subsidizing political campaigns by allowing groups
to keep money they would have paid in taxes and
then give it to particular candidates
Examples: corporations and labor unions
Charities and churches cannot because theyre taxexempt groups
Cant donate directly to candidates or parties due to
Tillman Act, have to establish separate PACs
Organizations spend money to set up a PAC
But thereafter the PAC must raise money on its own
Ideologically specific organizations have PACs too
Examples: NRA and Planned Parenthood
Political parties and political leaders can establish their own
PACs
Examples: Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee
Individuals donate more money to campaigns than do PACs
Finance laws require disclosure of donors
Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA)
How much can they give and to whom?
BCRA increased limits on donations
Imposed on individuals, political party committees and
PACs
Affect what they can give and total givings to candidates,
parties and PACs
Individuals: $2,700 to any candidate per election, maximum of
$5,400 for primary and general combined
PACs: $5,000 per election to any candidate
Political parties and soft money
BCRA outlawed soft money contributions from political parties
Now national parties can only raise hard money, which is subject
to contribution limits
Independent groups
Independent groups (unaffiliated with political parties or
candidates) are allowed to raise soft money without contribution
limits
This money is spent independently of candidates
On political advertising
3 categories:
Independent expenditure committees aka Super PACs
Not associated with a specific political party,
corporation or interest group
Gather contributions from individuals, corporations
and unions

Can collect donations of unlimited amounts

Required to disclose their donors
527 organizations
Designated as political organizations under tax code
Required to disclose contributors to IRS
Donations are not subject to contribution limits
501(C) organizations
Nonprofit organizations, not required to pay taxes
Not required to disclose donors
o Rules for Spenders
Spenders = candidates, parties, PACs and independent groups
How much can they spend?
Contributions are limited, but spending is not
Buckley v. Valeo
Candidates can spend an unlimited amount on themselves (selffinance)
Spending can only be limited in presidential elections but only
with the agreement of the candidates
When and how independent groups may campaign?
Few restrictions
More restrictions on independent groups than on the
candidates or parties
All spending has to be independent of candidate and/or party
(cannot consult or work together)
Content of advertising
Campaign Finance Rules and Political Strategy
o Citizens
Donations hold candidates accountable, another way to participate in the
process and express your opinions
o Candidates
Campaign finance rules profoundly affect candidates
Since theres not spending limits, theres an incentive for candidates to
raise and spend as much as possible
But by limiting the amount of each donation, it makes it difficult to
raise money because candidates have to raise from a larger amount
of donors
Campaign finance system significantly advantages incumbents and
wealthy candidates
But donations from outside donors produce more votes (so in
candidates best interest to fundraise)
o Political Parties and Interest Groups
Access strategy--groups that find their interest well served by current
office holders
Replacement strategy--groups that tend to have a more ideological agenda,
further from the average office holder

The Debate over Campaign Finance Reform

o Two important values underlying campaign finance laws:
freedom of speech and guarding against corruption
All about the trade-off/balance

Chapter 7: Interest Groups

Interest groups are varied actors, only some of which get involved in campaigns,
they have proliferated, while changing form in response to changes in law.
Interest groups donate money, run advertisements, and help mobilize voters but
they have distinct motives from those of the candidates and parties that they
support.
Interest group spending can affect voters choices, but there is only limited
evidence that they redirect campaign agendas or deliver specific constituency
votes.
Interest group activity may seem odds with many of our hopes for campaigns, but
it can increase the diversity of voices in campaigns beyond the candidates.

Types of Interest Groups

An interest group is a collection of people acting on the shared goal of

influencing public policy.
Although parties have policy goals, interest groups differ from parties in key
respects, most importantly interest groups do not run their own candidates for
office.
They seek their own policy goals than do parties, and they are generally not
aligned with any particular party.
There are several types of interest groups the largest of which represents
businesses.
The United States has a large and growing number of interest groups. The
increase has been particularly dramatic since the 1960s. Why?
o 1st factor: Because of the expansion of government.
o 2nd factor: Improved strategies for organizational maintenance- a key
feature of direct mail fund-raising
o 3rd factor: Prominent social movements have served as models for other
groups to mobilize.
o 4th factor: the nature of the rules concerning these groups-specifically, the
federal tax and campaign finance laws that encourage organizations to
create separate affiliated groups for distinct purposes.
o Interest groups that undertake these campaign activities often claim to
speak for broader constituencies such as all voters from a particular
ethnic or religious group.
o In ballot initiative campaigns, where voters decide to support or oppose
specific policy changes, interest groups replace the candidates as the

o
o

main actors. In states and localities where initiatives and referenda are
allowed, coalitions of individuals and interest groups often form to pay
signatures gathering firms to sign up enough registered voters to meet
requirements to get an initiative on the ballot.
Interest groups decide their campaign role in the context of the rules set
by government.
Same interest groups have goals beyond electing a particular candidate;
they hope to change the campaign agenda: the issues at the heart of a
campaign.

Chapter 10: Congressional Campaigns

I) Midterm election 2014

Republicans controlled house 234/435

o
Democrats only hope not making majority larger

Senate
o
55/100 seats including 2 independents (Dem)
o
targeted Mitch McConnell

20 yrs

minority leader since 2006

opponent Grimes- up and comer

McConnell won by 15 percent ( 6 % in polls)

Reps won control of the house and senate

o
Unpopular president
o
Demo incumbents retiring

Conclusion
o
Incumbents advantage
II) Rules, Reality, and who runs for Congress

Who can run?

o
Minimum age
o
Us citizen for x number of years
o
Name on ballot: Either collect a filing fee, or collect x number of signatures

Why people run when they do

o
Good chance of winning
o
Strong connection to the based
o
If a candidate loses connections may be lost (strategy is important)

Impact of congressional campaign depends on the particular rules governing the

election

even in 2010 Obama unpopular bad econ, unusually high number of incumbents

were defeated- 85%-won reelection

redistricting can cause incumbents to retire

o
want to avoid new constituency
o
districts usually draw to protect incumbents from both parties
Incumbent- person who already occupies the office

2014- 92% of incumbents won reelection

o
retire
o
health or scandal

When incumbents decide to retire this creates an open seat

Quality challenger- a candidate with the experience and backing necessary to

run a competitive campaign

Political amateur- candidates with no ptx experience, unlikely to win

If an incumbent has been winning by smaller margins, or struggling to make

money potential challengers may assume they are vulnerable- the biggest indication of
this is if they recruit the candidate to run

Challengers have to figure out if they will be supported by their own partybiggest indication party recruits them to run
o
Hill committee- National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC),
National Democratic Senatorial Committee (DSCC), National Republican Congressional
Committee (NRCC), and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)
o
most people who run are well connected, wealthy, white, and educated
( also commonly male)

typically work in business, law, or ptx

thus, congress unrepresentative of constituency

III) Campaign Organization and Funding

candidate needs a staff- need to raise money and put together an organization

most candidate are left to figure this out even if they have the parties support

spending and size of organization varies

not eligible for public funding

o
must use PACs to raise money/ individuals/ or are self financed
o
big races- 2/3 of funding out of state
o
people tend to use there money where it is likely to have the most effect
( close races)
IV) The Primary election

even more rare an incumbent has a challenger

open seat primaries occur when a partys incumbent has retired or if the party out
of power choses someone to challenge the incumbent

parties rarely get involved

focus is more on issues ideological in nature as not to alienate voters in the

primary
o
cant switch positions- flip-flop
V) The General Election

incumbent campaigns start earlier

most people know nothing about congressional candidates

a. Developing a campaign message
o
Community leaders or have prior ptx experience

o
Extensive social and ptx network
o
Developing their message from the organizations whose
endorsements they seek
o
Hire a pollster
o
Address local and national issues

Local issues should be dominate

If local issues dominate the campaign both candidate

message might end up very similar

If national issues dominate they may have similar agendas,

but different approaches to them
b. Communicating the Message
o
Use mail and newspaper, radio, and tv ads
o
Tvs far less common then in the presidential race, can be a waste of
money
o
Hold press conferences and give speeches, covered by local media
c. Mobilizing Voters
o
Similar to presidential campaign- mailers, phone calls, neighborhood
canvassing
o
Main difference the size and sophistication of their mobilization drives
o
Voter turnout during presidential races higher, as congress race on the
same ballot
d. The Role of the Parties and the Hill Committees
o
Target close house and senate races
o
Defend seats of members who are leaving office
o
Start with a longer list of races and shorten it as time goes on
o
In races where they are involved the committee
o
make a direct contribution
o
coordinate expenditures with the candidate
o
make an independent expenditure without a candidates involvement
o
coordinated expenditures- involve collaboration between the committee
and the candidate or rep od the candidate
o
usually spend on services that are given to a candidate directly or
performed by a ptx consultant
o
independent expenditures made without consulting or coordinating with a
candidate
o
Buckley v Valeo- expenditures can not be limited in anyway

Money =speech
o
Help candidate purchase campaign communications and provide technical
expert
VI) The Incumbency Advantage

Vote share earned by an incumbent compare to what a non-incumbent would

have earned if he or she had run

Reasons
o
Greater ptx experience
o
Easier time getting money

Most challengers cant match incumbent donations

o
Familiarity to voters
o
Franking privilege- allows members of congress to send mail to
constituents without postage (cant be used for campaign purposes)
o
Casework- involves helping constituents deal with government
bureaucracies
o
Premise devil they know rather then the one they dont
o
Personal vote- portion of an elected officials vote share that can be
attributed to their relationship with constituents
o
Incumbency advantage increase overtime

Growth in local tv station

Congress given themselves more official resources

Supreme court reform redistricting

o
Decreased since 90s

Nationalism- voters more partisan

VII) The Declining Competitiveness of Congressional Elections

10 percent of seats competitive

reasons
o
increased incumbency power
o
increasing party loyalty

consequences
o
First, a decline in competitiveness can undermine democratic
accountability.
o
declining competitiveness can prevent the demographics of Congress
from changing to reflect the electorate.
o
the demographics of a state or district can change during an incumbents
tenure

argument this might not matter as long as the over makeup of congress can
change

reforms
o
term limits
o
allowing public financing
o
redistricting

Chapter 11: State and Local Campaigns

State and local political offices and election laws often differ from their federal
counterparts, and these differences affect campaign strategies
National political realities shape both candidate strategy in and the outcomes of
state and local races.
State and local campaigns are increasingly adopting the techniques of national
campaigns, and thereby becoming more expensive and professionalized.
At the same time, many state and local campaigns attract scant media attention
and require little fund-raising, thereby necessitating very different campaign
strategies and tactics.

Because state and local elections are largely invisible to most voters and to the
media, small groups of activists may gain additional influence in these races.

Rules and Reality in Local Elections

Local elections typically operate under a very different set of rules than state and
federal elections, and may occur in a different context or reality.
Three important ways in which local electoral rules differ from the electoral rules
that operate at other levels of government are
1. The use of nonpartisan ballots
2. At large elections
3. Off cycle elections

Rules and Reality in State Elections

Certain rules distinguish state elections from both local and federal elections.
Many states use term limits, which have implications for both aspiring
officeholders and incumbents
Term limits: many state elections are affected by a rule that members of
Congress never confront- term limits.The most common limit for governors is two
term limits. Statewide officers therefore see more turnover than either the US
House or Senate where incumbents can accrue a considerable advantage from
their years of service.
Legislative Professionalism: One category of rules concerns the
professionalism of the legislature. Congress is perhaps the most salient model
of a professional legislature: full-time job that comes with a substantial salary and
staff. State legislatures are far less professional. Legislatures that are not as
professionalized are sometimes called citizen legislatures. The professionalism
of the legislature has a two-edged effect on the incumbency advantage. The
more professionalized the more likely they are to attract challengers.

Characteristics of the Electorate

One reason why state and local elections are so interesting is that state
electorate differ dramatically from one another. For example, candidates who
reside in districts with more independent voters will find there are more voters
that can be persuaded.
State party organizations across the country differ dramatically in terms of their
strength, with Republicans generally being stronger organizationally than
Democrats. State parties have adapted themselves to this era of candidatecentered campaigns, by reinventing themselves as service organizations that
provide candidates with important campaign resources.
Elections for state offices, like those for president or for Congress are strongly
affected by fundamental factors such as the state of economy. State elections are
interesting in that we are more concerned on how these states are particularly
affected by factors outside of the state or locality.

Candidate for state and local offices can be helped by the presence of higher
profile candidates on the ballot, such as candidates for president. What happens
when more visible candidates are on the ballot? They may create a coattails
effect: less visible candidates will ride the coattails of a more visible
popular candidate of the same party who is on the ballot, and thereby do
better in the polls.
Ballot initiatives and referenda are proposals placed on the ballot that allow
citizens to change law and public policy. This mode of decision making is
sometimes called direct democracy because such measures are voted on
directly by citizens rather than by elected representatives.
Retention elections are referenda on sitting judges in which voters decide
whether judges should remain on the bench.