Professional Documents
Culture Documents
HIDROLOGIA
A.8.1.2.1. MODELO MATEMTICO PROBABILISTICO :
x
(e
F( y )=e
..1
Donde :
= 6
.... 2
= Xm0 . 5772
Xi .... 4
Xm=
n
( X Xm )2 .... 5
n1
y=
( x )
.... 6
Sustituyendo la ecuacin 6 en 1:
y
F( y )=e(e
) .... 7
y=ln ln
1
F( y)
.... 8
Periodo de retorno:
T=
1
1F(( y )
.... 9
y=ln ln
T
T 1
.... 10
x=+y
.... 11
.... 3
x=+y
AO
MES
X =P(mm)
[ X Xm ]
[ X Xm ]2
1
2
1943
1944
DIC
FEB
48.0
42.0
19.4
13.4
377.64
180.44
1945
DIC
45.2
16.6
276.65
4
5
1946
1947
NOV
DIC
19.0
25.3
-9.6
-3.3
91.53
10.67
1948
DIC
30.1
1.5
2.35
1949
FEB
20.7
-7.9
61.89
8
9
1950
1951
ENE
FEB
22.0
31.0
-6.6
2.4
43.13
5.92
10
1952
ENE
20.0
-8.6
73.40
11
12
1953
1954
FEB
MAR
19.6
24.0
-9.0
-4.6
80.41
20.86
13
1955
ENE
20.8
-7.8
60.33
14
1956
ENE
25.7
-2.9
8.22
15
16
1957
1958
ENE
FEB
14.0
28.0
-14.6
-0.6
212.20
0.32
17
1959
FEB
25.3
-3.3
10.67
18
19
1960
1961
ABRIL
ENE
15.0
32.0
-13.6
3.4
184.07
11.78
20
1962
ENE
19.0
-9.6
91.53
21
1963
FEB
37.0
8.4
71.11
22
23
1964
1965
FEB
NOV
22.0
18.9
-6.6
-9.7
43.13
93.45
24
1966
DIC
15.0
-13.6
184.07
25
1967
FEB
21.5
-7.1
49.94
26
27
1968
1969
FEB
ENE
19.0
21.0
-9.6
-7.6
91.53
57.26
28
1970
MAR
16.0
-12.6
157.93
29
30
1971
1972
MAR
DIC
21.0
24.6
-7.6
-4.0
57.26
15.74
31
1973
DIC
22.8
-5.8
33.26
32
1974
FEB
29.2
0.6
0.40
33
34
1975
1976
FEB
ABR
41.2
34.3
12.6
5.7
159.59
32.87
35
1977
ENE
49.0
20.4
417.50
36
37
1978
1979
FEB
ENE
40.0
26.7
11.4
-1.9
130.71
3.49
38
1980
FEB
21.4
-7.2
51.37
39
1981
FEB
49.0
20.4
417.50
40
41
1982
1983
MAR
FEB
46.5
16.3
17.9
-12.3
321.59
150.48
42
1984
FEB
32.7
4.1
17.08
43
44
1985
1986
FEB
DIC
34.9
21.9
6.3
-6.7
40.11
44.45
45
1987
ENE
35.1
6.5
42.68
46
1988
FEB
19.2
-9.4
87.74
47
48
1989
1990
FEB
ENE
21.1
27.8
-7.5
-0.8
55.76
0.59
49
1991
MAR
21.0
-7.6
57.26
50
1992
DIC
18.3
-10.3
105.41
51
52
1993
1994
DIC
FEB
34.1
28.5
5.5
-0.1
30.61
0.00
53
1995
FEB
28.1
-0.5
0.22
54
55
1996
1997
FEB
SEP
22.4
27.8
-6.2
-0.8
38.03
0.59
56
1998
NOV
18.4
-10.2
103.37
57
1999
MAR
66.7
38.1
1454.11
58
2000
ENE
32.2
3.6
13.20
59
60
2001
2002
ENE
FEB
29.6
48.2
61
2003
ENE
22.6
-6.0
35.61
62
63
2004
2005
AGOS
FEB
13.8
27.4
-14.8
-1.2
218.07
1.36
64
2006
ENE
39.2
10.6
113.06
65
2007
FEB
26.9
-1.7
2.78
66
67
2008
2009
MAR
DIC
24.0
46.5
-4.6
17.9
20.86
321.59
68
2010
ENE
39.2
10.6
113.06
69
2011
FEB
35.0
6.4
41.38
70
2012
=
MAR
38.0
9.4
88.98
7778.67
n=
1.0
19.6
1.07
385.45
1999.7
70
Xm=
Xi
n
28.57
[mm]
10.62
[mm]
= 6
8.279
[mm]
= Xm0 . 5772
23.79
[mm]
Xm
n 1
F( y )=e
(e
T
Y( T ) Ln Ln
T 1
Con:
F ee
X ( T ) * Y( T )
Y( T )
Periodo
Variable
Precipit.
Prob. De
Correccion
Retorno
Aos (T)
Reducida
Y(T)
[mm]
X(T)
F(XT)
XT [mm]
0.3665
26.8229
0.5000
30.31
1.4999
36.2058
0.8000
40.91
10
25
2.2504
3.1985
42.4188
50.2677
0.9000
0.9600
47.93
56.80
50
3.9019
56.0908
0.9800
63.38
75
4.3108
59.4759
0.9867
67.21
100
4.6001
61.8709
0.9900
69.91
12
18
24
0.30
0.39
0.46
0.52
0.57
0.61
0.68
0.80
0.91
1.00
de
Cociente
Duracin
24 Hr
X24 =
100
18 Hr
X18 =
91
12 Hr
X12 =
80
8 Hr
X8 =
68
6 Hr
X6 =
61
5 Hr
X5 =
57
4 Hr
X4 =
52
3 Hr
X3 =
46
2 Hr
X2 =
39
1 Hr
X1 =
30
9.093
I=
P [mm ]
t duracion [hr ]
Tabla.-
Duracin
[Hr]
[min]
2 aos
5 aos
24
1440
1.263
1.705
1.997
2.367
2.641
2.800
2.913
18
1080
1.532
2.068
2.423
2.872
3.204
3.398
3.534
12
720
2.021
2.727
3.195
3.787
4.225
4.481
4.661
480
2.576
3.477
4.074
4.828
5.387
5.713
5.942
360
3.082
4.159
4.873
5.775
6.444
6.833
7.108
300
3.455
4.664
5.464
6.475
7.225
7.662
7.970
240
3.940
5.318
6.231
7.384
8.240
8.737
9.088
180
4.648
6.273
7.349
8.709
9.718
120
5.911
7.978
9.347
60
9.093
12.273
10.306 10.720
aT
I= c
t
Donde:
I : Intensidad [mm/hr]
t : Duracin de la lluvia [min]
T : Periodo de retorno [aos]
a,b,c : Parametros de ajuste.
d=aT
I=
d
=dt c
c
t
I d * t c
I Y
d A
t X
c B
REGRESION POTENCIAL
Y = AX B
y=a+Bx
LINEALIZANDO:
y=lnY
x=ln X
a=ln A
ln Y =ln A + B ln X
y =NA+B x
( xy)= A x+B x 2
A=
Y X 2 X XY
2
N X 2( X )
B=
N XY X Y
N X 2 ( X )
Y = AX
COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACION
n
x y
i
x y
2
i
2
i
y
i
lnx
lny
lnx*lny
(lnx)^2
(lny)^2
1440
1.263
7.27240
0.23349
1.69803
52.8878
0.05452
1080
1.532
6.98472
0.42657
2.97947
48.78631
0.18196
720
2.021
6.57925
0.70359
4.62909
43.28653
0.49504
480
2.576
6.17379
0.94624
5.84189
38.11568
0.89537
360
3.082
5.88610
1.12558
6.62528
34.64617
1.26693
300
3.455
5.70378
1.23982
7.07166
32.53311
1.53715
240
3.940
5.48064
1.37118
7.51494
30.03741
1.88013
180
4.648
5.19296
1.53644
7.97867
26.96683
2.36065
120
5.911
4.78749
1.77682
8.50651
22.92006
3.15709
10
60
9.093
4.09434
2.2075
9.03826
16.76362
4.87306
4980
37.521
58.15547
11.56723
61.8838
346.94352
16.7019
n=
10
a =
4.74148
a = Ln(A)
B=
-0.61641
B = -c
A=
114.60369
A=d
lnx
lny
lnx*lny
(lnx)^2
(lny)^2
1440
1.705
7.27240
0.53357
3.88033
52.88780
0.28470
1080
2.068
6.98472
0.72658
5.07496
48.78631
0.52792
720
2.727
6.57925
1.00320
6.60030
43.28653
1.00641
480
3.477
6.17379
1.24617
7.69359
38.11568
1.55294
360
4.159
5.88610
1.42527
8.38928
34.64617
2.03139
300
4.664
5.70378
1.53987
8.78308
32.53311
2.37120
240
5.318
5.48064
1.67110
9.15870
30.03741
2.79258
180
6.273
5.19296
1.83625
9.53557
26.96683
3.37181
120
7.978
4.78749
2.07669
9.94213
22.92006
4.31264
10
60
12.273
4.09434
2.50740
10.26615
16.76362
6.28705
4980
50.642
58.15547
14.56610
79.32409
346.94352
24.53864
n=
10
a =
5.04122
a = Ln(A)
B=
-0.61638
B = -c
A=
154.65858
A=d
lnx
lny
lnx*lny
(lnx)^2
(lny)^2
1440
1.997
7.27240
0.69165
5.02996
52.88780
0.47838
1080
2.423
6.98472
0.88501
6.18155
48.78631
0.78324
720
3.195
6.57925
1.16159
7.64239
43.28653
1.34929
480
4.074
6.17379
1.40463
8.67189
38.11568
1.97299
360
4.873
5.88610
1.58371
9.32188
34.64617
2.50814
300
5.464
5.70378
1.69818
9.68605
32.53311
2.88382
240
6.231
5.48064
1.82954
10.02705
30.03741
3.34722
180
7.349
5.19296
1.99456
10.35767
26.96683
3.97827
120
9.347
4.78749
2.23506
10.70033
22.92006
4.99549
10
60
14.379
4.09434
2.66577
10.91457
16.76362
7.10633
4980
59.332
58.15547
16.14970
88.53334
346.94352
29.40317
n=
10
a =
5.19975
a = Ln(A)
B=
-0.61641
B = -c
A=
181.22693
A=d
n=
lnx
lny
lnx*lny
(lnx)^2
(lny)^2
1440
2.367
7.27240
0.86162
6.26605
52.88780
0.74239
1080
2.872
6.98472
1.05501
7.36895
48.78631
1.11305
720
3.787
6.57925
1.33157
8.76073
43.28653
1.77308
480
4.828
6.17379
1.57443
9.72020
38.11568
2.47883
360
5.775
5.88610
1.75354
10.32151
34.64617
3.07490
300
6.475
5.70378
1.86795
10.65438
32.53311
3.48924
240
7.384
5.48064
1.99932
10.95755
30.03741
3.99728
180
8.709
5.19296
2.16436
11.23943
26.96683
4.68445
120
11.076
4.78749
2.40478
11.51286
22.92006
5.78297
10
60
17.04
4.09434
2.83556
11.60975
16.76362
8.04040
4980
70.313
58.15547
17.84814
98.41141
346.94352
35.17659
10
a =
5.36912
a = Ln(A)
B=
-0.61633
B = -c
A=
214.67387
A=d
lnx
lny
lnx*lny
(lnx)^2
(lny)^2
1440
2.641
7.27240
0.97116
7.06266
52.88780
0.94315
1080
3.204
6.98472
1.16440
8.13301
48.78631
1.35583
720
4.225
6.57925
1.44102
9.48083
43.28653
2.07654
480
5.387
6.17379
1.68399
10.39660
38.11568
2.83582
360
6.444
5.88610
1.86315
10.96669
34.64617
3.47133
300
7.225
5.70378
1.97755
11.27951
32.53311
3.91070
240
8.24
5.48064
2.10900
11.55867
30.03741
4.44788
180
9.718
5.19296
2.27398
11.80869
26.96683
5.17099
120
12.359
4.78749
2.51438
12.03757
22.92006
6.32211
10
60
19.014
4.09434
2.94518
12.05857
16.76362
8.67409
4980
78.457
58.15547
18.94381
104.78280
346.94352
39.20844
n=
10
a =
5.47904
a = Ln(A)
B=
-0.61639
B = -c
A=
239.61657
A=d
n=
lnx
lny
lnx*lny
(lnx)^2
(lny)^2
1440
2.8
7.27240
1.02962
7.48781
52.88780
1.06012
1080
3.398
6.98472
1.22319
8.54364
48.78631
1.49619
720
4.481
6.57925
1.49985
9.86789
43.28653
2.24955
480
5.713
6.17379
1.74274
10.75931
38.11568
3.03714
360
6.833
5.88610
1.92176
11.31167
34.64617
3.69316
300
7.662
5.70378
2.03627
11.61444
32.53311
4.14640
240
8.737
5.48064
2.16757
11.87967
30.03741
4.69836
180
10.306
5.19296
2.33273
12.11377
26.96683
5.44163
120
13.106
4.78749
2.57307
12.31855
22.92006
6.62069
10
60
20.163
4.09434
3.00385
12.29878
16.76362
9.02311
4980
83.199
58.15547
19.53065
108.19553
346.94352
41.46635
a =
5.53776
a = Ln(A)
B=
-0.61640
B = -c
A=
254.10816
A=d
10
lnx
lny
lnx*lny
(lnx)^2
(lny)^2
1440
2.913
7.27240
1.06918
7.77550
52.88780
1.14315
1080
3.534
6.98472
1.26243
8.81772
48.78631
1.59373
720
4.661
6.57925
1.53923
10.12698
43.28653
2.36923
480
5.942
6.17379
1.78205
11.00200
38.11568
3.17570
360
7.108
5.88610
1.96122
11.54394
34.64617
3.84638
300
7.97
5.70378
2.07568
11.83922
32.53311
4.30845
240
9.088
5.48064
2.20695
12.09550
30.03741
4.87063
180
10.72
5.19296
2.37211
12.31827
26.96683
5.62691
120
13.633
4.78749
2.61249
12.50727
22.92006
6.82510
10
60
20.973
4.09434
3.04324
12.46006
16.76362
9.26131
4980
86.542
58.15547
19.92458
110.48646
346.94352
43.02059
a =
5.57715
a = Ln(A)
B=
-0.61640
B = -c
A=
264.31723
A=d
n=
10
Termino ctte
Coeficiente
Coef. De
Coef. De
retorno
de regresin
regresin
Correlacion
[c]
[r]
114.60369
[d]
-0.61641
0.61641
-0.99972
154.65858
-0.61638
0.61638
-0.99973
10
181.22693
-0.61641
0.61641
-0.99972
25
214.67387
-0.61633
0.61633
-0.99972
50
239.61657
-0.61639
0.61639
-0.99972
75
254.10816
-0.61640
0.61640
-0.99972
100
264.31723
-0.61640
0.61640
-0.99972
Prom. :
203.31500
0.61639
d Y
a A
TX
b B
d=aT
ln Y =ln A + B ln X
Y = AX B
y=a+Bx
LINEALIZANDO:
N
lnx
lny
lnx*lny
(lnx)^2
(lny)^2
114.60
0.69315
4.74148
3.28656
0.48046
22.48163
154.66
1.60944
5.04122
8.11354
2.5903
25.41390
10
181.23
2.30259
5.19975
11.97289
5.30192
27.03740
25
214.67
3.21888
5.36912
17.28255
10.36119
28.82745
50
239.62
3.91202
5.47904
21.43411
15.3039
30.01988
75
254.11
4.31749
5.53776
23.90922
18.64072
30.66679
100
264.32
4.60517
5.57715
25.68372
21.20759
31.10460
267
1423.205
20.65874
36.94552
111.68259
73.88608
195.55165
n=
a =
4.67311
a = Ln(A)
B=
0.20494
B=b
A=
107.03009
107.03009
0.20494
0.61639
0.98803
107.03009
0.61639
t
Donde:
I:
Tabla .-
Frecuencia
Duracin [min]
[aos]
10
15
20
25
30
45.75
29.84
23.24
19.47
16.96
15.16
55.20
36.00
28.04
23.49
20.47
18.29
10
63.62
41.50
32.32
27.07
23.59
21.08
25
76.76
50.07
39.00
32.66
28.47
25.44
50
88.48
57.72
44.95
37.65
32.81
29.32
75
96.15
62.72
48.85
40.91
35.65
31.86
100
101.99
66.53
51.81
43.40
37.82
33.80
[aos]
35
40
45
50
55
60
13.79
12.70
11.81
11.07
10.43
9.89
16.63
15.32
14.25
13.35
12.59
11.93
10
19.17
17.66
16.42
15.39
14.51
13.75
25
23.13
21.31
19.81
18.57
17.51
16.59
50
26.67
24.56
22.84
21.40
20.18
19.13
75
28.98
26.69
24.82
23.26
21.93
20.78
100
30.74
28.31
26.32
24.67
23.26
22.05
Frecuencia
Duracin [min]
AREAS
A-1
[m2]
[km2]
[Has]
240977000
240.98
24097.70
t c 0.02 *
0.75
L
S 0.40
Donde:
tc = tiempo de concentracin[min].
L = longitud del cauce principal al punto de salida [m].
S = Pendiente del cauce principal [m/m].
Tabla :
Tiempo de concentracin [tc]
Fuente: Elavoracin propia
Cuenca
A-1
Area
Cota Sup.
Cota Inf.
[km2]
[km]
[m]
[m]
[km]
[%]
[m/m]
240.98
44.369
3723
3706
0.017
0.040
0.0004
Tiempo de concentracin
tc [hr]
Kiprich
23.3
23.88
23.6
Tabla :
Intensidades para:
T=
20
[Aos]
T=
50
[Aos]
T=
100
[Aos]
tc
20 aos
50 aos
100 aos
[min]
[mm/hr]
[mm/hr]
[mm/hr]
A-1
1415.40
2.26
2.73
3.14
Coeficiente de escorrentia.
s/g tabla N-07 Nmeros de curva de escorrenta para usos selectos de tierra agrcola
CN=
89
Po=
6.18
Pd=
66.70 mm
C=
0.70
C=
0.40
Area
[km2]
[%]
A-1
240.98
0.04
0.40
Covertura
Tipo de
Vegetal
Suelo
pastisales
en
arcilloso, suelo
condiciones
expansible y
pobres
salitroso
Coeficiente de uniformidad
si:
tc=
23.6
K=
1.788
Caudales de diseo.
Tabla :
Caudales de diseo.
Fuente: Elavoracin propia
Cuenca
Area
[km2]
[%]
A-1
240.98
0.04
0.40
1.79
Intensidades [mm/hr]
20 aos
50 aos
100 aos
2.26
2.73
3.14
Q [m3/s]
20 aos
50 aos
100 aos
108.27
130.79
150.43
O
A
00
1
75
50
5
2
O
O
O
A
A
A
100
O
A
O
A
O
A
60
0
1
80
INTENSIDAD [mm/hr]
120
40
20