: India and

Pakistan 2001-2002

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Geospatial Technologies Project

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Acknowledgement

Introduction**
!
Perhaps!no!international!border!is!as!fraught!with!as!much!ongoing!conflict!as!the!one!
separating!India!and!Pakistan.!Even!the!demilitarized!zone!separating!the!Koreas,!often!cited!as!
the!archetypical!example!of!crossAborder!acrimony,!has!been!essentially!static!for!over!sixty!
years.!During!a!comparable!period!of!time,!tensions!along!the!border!between!India!and!
Pakistan!have!erupted!into!fullAscale!war!on!four!separate!occasions,!in!1947,!1965,!1971,!and!
1999.!On!13!December!2001,!this!already!tense!situation!was!significantly!exacerbated!when!
gunmen!linked!to!the!Pakistani!militant!group!LashkarAeATaiba!attempted!to!storm!the!Indian!
parliament!following!a!joint!session!of!the!legislature,!killing!five!guards,!two!employees,!and!
directly!threatening!the!integrity!of!the!Indian!government.1,2!
!
Incensed!by!the!attack,!the!response!of!Indias!political!leadership!many!of!whom!had!been!
present!in!the!building!at!the!time!was!swift!and!unequivocal.!Within!days,!India!called!for!a!
general!mobilization,!and!three!armored!divisions!and!over!a!half!million!troops!were!began!
establishing!positions!along!the!Pakistani!border.3,4!In!the!words!of!Indian!National!Security!
Advisor!Brajesh!Mishra,!in!Januarywe!were!on!the!point!of!launching!a!fullAscale!war.!A!
senior!Indian!army!officer!in!the!Punjab!echoed!these!sentiments!saying!By!the!6th,!we!were!
one!hundred!percent!prepared.5!Pakistan!responded!to!Indias!actions!by!placing!its!military!
on!high!alert,!mobilizing!over!300,000!troops,!and!redeploying!two!Army!corps!from!the!Afghan!
border!to!the!line!of!control!separating!the!Indian!and!PakistaniAcontrolled!areas!of!Kashmir.4!
!
A!brief!lull!ensued!following!an!address!by!Pakistani!leader!Pervez!Musharraf!on!12!January!
2002.!Tensions!escalated!yet!again,!however,!following!an!incident!on!14!May!2002!in!which!
extremists!dressed!in!army!uniforms!attacked!a!bus!and!stormed!the!family!quarters!of!an!
Indian!Army!encampment!in!Kaluchak,!killing!thirty!one,!including!ten!children!and!a!twoA
monthAold!girl.6!Following!the!attack,!contemporary!sources!recounted!that!the!atmosphere!
was!even!more!conducive!to!war!than!it!had!been!in!January,!with!crossAborder!shelling!and!
blackout!exercises!continuing!throughout!the!region!for!the!remainder!of!the!month!and!into!
June.5!Following!diplomatic!initiatives!by!Russia!and!the!United!States,!the!situation!gradually!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1

!The!New!York!Times.!Suicide!Raid!in!New!Delhi;!Attackers!Among!12!Dead.!14!December!2001!
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/14/world/suicideAraidAinAnewAdelhiAattackersAamongA12Adead.html!accessed!
on!2!March!2,!2015.!
2
!The!New!York!Times.!Group!in!Pakistan!is!Blamed!by!India!for!Suicide!Raid!15!December!2001!
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/15/world/groupAinApakistanAisAblamedAbyAindiaAforAsuicideAraid.html#!accessed!
on!2!March!2015.!
3
!P.!Nayak!and!M.!Krepon,!US!Crisis!Management!in!South!Asias!Twin!Peaks!Crisis!(Stimson!Center,!Washington,!
DC)!http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/researchApdfs/USCrisisManagement.pdf!accessed!on!2!March!2015!
4
!GlobalSecurity.org!2002!!Kashmir!Crisis!7!November!2011!
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/kashmirA2002.htm!accessed!on!2!March!2015.!
5
!A.!Stolar,!To!the!Brink:!Indian!DecisionAMaking!and!the!2001A2002!Standoff!(Report!No.!68,!Stimson!Center,!
Washington,!DC,!2008)!http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/researchApdfs/To_the_Brink.pdf!
6
!The!Guardian.!Kaluchak!keeps!the!flag!of!vengeance!flying.!7!June!2002!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/jun/08/pakistan.india1!accessed!on!2!March!2015.!

1!

deAescalated!throughout!the!summer!and!autumn!of!2002,!culminating!with!a!ceaseAfire!
agreement!signed!by!both!parties!in!November!2003.!
!
Although!the!2001/2002!standoff!ended!without!escalating!into!allAout!war,!it!was!the!most!
serious!of!the!India/Pakistan!disputes!that!have!taken!place!since!the!widespread!availability!of!
satellite!imagery,!and!the!preparations!of!both!militaries!went!all!the!way!to!the!brink.!These!
mobilizations!are!instructive,!because!both!Indian!and!Pakistani!political!leaders!admit!that!war!
between!the!two!countries!was!a!very!real!possibility!in!the!first!half!of!2002,!and!as!such!they!
are!likely!identical!to!what!would!have!taken!place!in!the!event!of!an!outright!conflict,!merely!
stopping!short!of!execution.!Furthermore,!as!demonstrated!by!the!2008!Mumbai!attacks!and!
subsequent!standoff!at!the!border,!there!is!no!guarantee!that!similar!events!will!not!happen!in!
the!future,!or!that!they!will!be!successfully!handled!through!diplomatic!means.!For!these!
reasons,!the!events!of!2001A2002!have!much!to!teach!us!about!the!nature!of!conflict!in!this!
volatile!region.!
!
Data*and*Methods*
!
The!timeframe!of!the!events!in!question,!coming!so!shortly!after!the!1999*launch!of!IKONOS,!
the!first!highAresolution!commercial!imaging!satellite,!makes!the!study!of!this!conflict!
challenging!compared!to!more!recent!disputes!that!benefit!from!a!mature!imagery!
environment.!There!are!several!reasons!for!this.!First,!in!order!to!accurately!gauge!the!effects!
of!mobilization,!it!is!preferable!to!obtain!multitemporal!(i.e.,!before!and!after)!imagery,!which!
requires!that!two!or!more!imaging!passes!have!taken!place!over!a!given!area!!a!condition!that!
is!less!likely!to!be!fulfilled!early!in!a!spacecrafts!lifetime.!Second,!as!the!earliest!highAresolution!
commercial!imaging!satellite,!the!capabilities!of!IKONOS!are!less!advanced!than!its!more!recent!
contemporaries.!This!effect!is!particularly!noticeable!when!comparing!resolution;!the!80A
centimeter!coverage!of!IKONOS!is!noticeably!coarser!than!that!of!more!recent!sensors,!
particularly!when!looking!at!small!targets!such!as!tanks!or!artillery!pieces.!
!
Despite!these!challenges,!an!initial!survey!of!the!border!area!identified!twentyAsix!sites!that!
were!evaluated!as!favorable!candidates!for!exhibiting!signs!of!the!reported!buildup.!These!sites!
included!army!bases!and!cantonments!in!both!India!and!Pakistan,!as!well!as!airbases,!and!
military!facilities!along!the!border.!In!most!cases,!multitemporal!coverage!from!both!before!and!
after!the!standoff!was!available,!enabling!the!most!accurate!possible!assessment!of!the!state!of!
affairs.!However,!several!areas!were!also!included!despite!the!availability!of!only!a!single!image,!
due!to!their!potential!strategic!significance.!A!listing!of!these!locations!and!the!associated!
imagery!is!shown!in!Table!1.7!Of!the!ten!army!and!air!force!bases!in!northwest!India!imaged!in!
this!study,!three!were!located!in!Punjab,!one!in!Haryana,!one!in!Uttar!Pradesh,!and!two!in!the!
disputed!territory!of!Jammu!and!Kashmir.!!In!Pakistan,!all!military!installations!were!located!
within!that!countrys!Punjab!province.!A!map!showing!the!locations!of!these!bases!is!shown!in!
Figure!1.!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
7

!Scramble.nl!Armed!Forces!Overviews:!India!http://www.scramble.nl/orbats/india/overview!accessed!on!2!
March!2015!

2!

India*1*Army*
!
Facility*

Date*

Sensor*

Image*ID*

Units*Stationed*

Leh!Cantonment!

2002/01/24!

IKONOS!

20020124054229600000116012992000012688306THC!

XIV!Corps!HQ,!3rd!
Inf.!Div.!

Chandimandir!
Cantonment!

2002/03/06!

IKONOS!

20020306053806700000116077032000013278002THC!

Western!Command!
HQ!

Patiala!Cantonment!

2001/04/11!

IKONOS!

20010411054317700000116186592000008506901THC!

1st!Armoured!Div.!

Patiala!Cantonment!

2002/01/24!

IKONOS!

20020124054311400000116013012000012688409THC!

1st!Armoured!Div.!

Jalandhar!Cantonment!

2001/04/22!

IKONOS!

20010422054416400000116275322000008627400THC!

XI!Corps!HQ!

Jalandhar!Cantonment!

2002/07/16!

IKONOS!

20020716054840900000116065542000015209700THC!

XI!Corps!HQ!

Amritsar!Cantonment!

2001/09/06!

IKONOS!

20010906054003500000116092632000010797600THC!

15th!Inf.!Div.!

Amritsar!Cantonment!

2002/04/22!

IKONOS!

20020422055025300000116207002000013968502THC!

15th!Inf.!Div.!

Ambala!Cantonment!

2001/04/08!

IKONOS!

20010408053407900000116162792000008459700THC!

II!Corps!HQ,!40th!
Artillery!Div.!

Ambala!Cantonment!

2002/01/21!

IKONOS!

20020121053428700000116309942000012660004THC!

II!Corps!HQ,!40th!
Artillery!Div.!

Siachen!Glacier!

2002/03/20!

IKONOS!

20020320054640100000116214902000013475909THC!

Rotating!

3!

India*1*Air*Force*

!
Facility*

!
Date*

!
Sensor*

!
Image*ID*

!
Units*Stationed*

Amritsar!Air!Force!
Station!

2002/04/22!

IKONOS!

20020422055025300000116207002000013968502THC!

No.!1!Forward!Base!
Support!Unit!

Chandigarh!Air!Force!
Station!

2001/04/08!

IKONOS!

20010408053343400000116162872000008439100THC!

12!Wing,!No.!25,!48!
Sqn.,!No.!126HF,!
IAF!

Chandigarh!Air!Force!
Station!

2002/03/06!

IKONOS!

20020306053806700000116077032000013278002THC!

12!Wing,!No.!25,!48!
Sqn.,!No.!126HF,!
IAF!

Halwara!Air!Force!
Station!

2000/11/19!

IKONOS!

20001119052752400000116310382000006522700THC!

34!Wing,!No.!22,!
31,!220!Sqn.!IAF!

Halwara!Air!Force!
Station!

2002/10/01!

IKONOS!

20021001055445300000116196202000016395903THC!

34!Wing,!No.!22,!
31,!220!Sqn.!IAF!

Sarsawa!Air!Force!
Station!

2002/07/16!

IKONOS!

20020716054908800000116058792000015209803THC!

No.!30!Wing!IAF!

Ambala!

2001/04/08!

IKONOS!

20010408053407900000116162792000008459700THC!

7!Wing,!No.!3,!5,!14!
Sqn.!IAF!

Ambala!

2002/01/21!

IKONOS!

20020121053428700000116309942000012660004THC!

7!Wing,!No.!3,!5,!14!
Sqn.!IAF!

4!

Pakistan*1*Army*

!
Facility*

!
Date*

!
Sensor*

!
Image*ID*

!
Units*Stationed*

Mangla!Cantonment!

2001/09/15!

IKONOS!

20010915060618800000116161402000010899907THC!

I!Corps!HQ;!19th!
Inf.!Div.!

Mangla!Cantonment!

2002/01/30!

IKONOS!

20020130055952000000116067652000012771813THC!

I!Corps!HQ;!19th!
Inf.!Div.!

Multan!Cantonment!

2001/09/01!

IKONOS!

2001090105580280000011605333!

II!Corps!HQ;!Ist!
Armoured!Div.!

Multan!Cantonment!

2002/09/26!

IKONOS!

20020926061221400000116140722000016312801THC!

II!Corps!HQ;!Ist!
Armoured!Div.!

Rahwali!Cantonment!

2001/11/11!

IKONOS!

20011111054510900000116243952000011721120THC!

XXX!Corps!HQ;!6th!
Armoured!Div.;!2nd!
Artillery!Div.;!No!4.!
Army!Aviation!Sqn.!

Rahwali!Cantonment!

2002/09/01!

IKONOS!

20020901060110000000116201272000015919304THC!

XXX!Corps!HQ;!6th!
Armoured!Div.;!2nd!
Artillery!Div.;!No!4.!
Army!Aviation!Sqn.!

Murree!Cantonment!

2000/03/23!

IKONOS!

20000323053546100000116011842000002769904THC!

12!Inf.!Div.!HQ!

Murree!Cantonment!

2002/10/07!

IKONOS!

20021007061153300000116263062000016487004THC!

12!Inf.!Div.!HQ!

Jhelum!Cantonment!

2000/12/20!

IKONOS!

20001220055646700000116245112000006933415THC!

23!Inf.!Div.!HQ!

Jhelum!Cantonment!

2002/01/27!

IKONOS!

20020127055143500000116038322000012744017THC!

23!Inf.!Div.!HQ!

Kharian!Cantonment!

2002/01/11!

IKONOS!

2002011106075820000011621214!

17th,!37th!Inf.!Div.;!
8th!Armoured!Brig.!

5!

Pakistan*1*Air*Force*

!
Facility*

!
Date*

!
Sensor*

!
Image*ID*

!
Units*Stationed*

PAF!Base!Rafiqui!

2002/02/21!

IKONOS!

20020221060351100000116280362000013095602THC!

No.!34!Fighter!
Wing!

PAF!Base!Rafiqui!

2002/03/04!

IKONOS!

20020304060523200000116057982000013231002THC!

No.!34!Fighter!
Wing!

PAF!Base!Minhas!

2001/10/15!

IKONOS!

2001101506000740000011605104!

No.!33!
(Fighter/MultiA
Role)!Wing!

PAF!Base!Minhas!

2002/02/10!

IKONOS!

20020210060107000000116171612000012939502THC!

No.!33!
(Fighter/MultiA
Role)!Wing!

PAF!Base!Nur!Khan!

2000/06/27!

IKONOS!

20000627053845900000108157492000004467601THC!

No.!35!(Composite!
Air!Transport)!Wing!

PAF!Base!Chaklala!

2002/01/19!

IKONOS!

20020119060043500000116289382000012622806THC!

No.!35!(Composite!
Air!Transport)!Wing!

PAF!Base!Chaklala!

2002/06/11!

IKONOS!

20020611061203000000116034332000014683106THC!

No.!35!(Composite!
Air!Transport)!Wing!

!
Front*Lines*

!
Location*

!
Date*

!
Sensor*

!
Image*ID*

31.49338021,!
74.62031681!

2002/05/25!

IKONOS!

20020525055330200000116201852000014438402THC!

31.249825,!74.514025!

2002/06/05!

IKONOS!

20020605055425200000116306162000014598500THC!

31.74835,!74.5137!

2002/06/05!

IKONOS!

20020605055425200000116306162000014598504THC!

2001/11/25!

IKONOS!

2001112505543890000011605201!

2002/08/07!

IKONOS!

2002080705495820000011628208!

32.70660442,!
74.62849457!
32.74420158,!
74.63617113!

!
!

!
!
!
!
!

6!

Figure!1:!Military!Bases!Examined!in!this!Study!

!
!
Results!
!
!
Analysis!of!the!imagery!revealed!a!number!of!phenomena!consistent!with!largeAscale!military!
mobilization,!including!the!construction!of!perimeter!defenses!around!military!installations,!the!
erection!of!surfaceAtoAair!missile!batteries!and!the!redeployment!of!groundAbased!forces.!The!
extent!and!nature!of!these!observations!are!discussed!below,!and!are!illustrated!in!figures!2!
through!14.!!
!
Indian!Air!Force!(IAF)!Stations!
!
Ambala!AFS!
!
Home!to!the!number!3,!5,!and!14!squadrons!of!the!IAFs!7th!wing,!this!installation!is!located!due!
east!of!Ambala!City!in!Haryana!State,!approximately!two!hundred!kilometers!north!of!New!
Delhi,!and!occupies!approximately!half!the!area!of!a!base!that!is!shared!with!the!Indian!Army.!In!
!

7!

an!apparent!defensive!measure,!the!majority!of!its!aircraft!hangars!are!dispersed,!and!many!of!
them!show!signs!of!being!hardened!against!attack!(e.g.,!earthen!berms!surrounding!the!aprons!
and!access!ramps).!Perhaps!not!coincidentally,!attempts!to!document!any!changes!in!the!
number!of!type!of!aircraft!present!at!this!base!were!largely!unsuccessful;!only!a!single!MiGA21!
was!visible!in!the!before!image!acquired!in!April!2001,!while!in!January!2002,!as!the!crisis!
escalated,!just!one!SEPECAT!Jaguar!was!apparent!(Figure!2).!Due!to!the!number!of!covered!
hangars,!it!is!possible,!if!not!probable,!that!the!actual!number!of!aircraft!was!higher.!
!
Figure!2:!Aircraft!and!dispersed!hangars!at!Ambala!AFS,!India

Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates:

30.39 N, 76.80 E.

!
!
Amritsar!AFS!
!
Of!all!IAF!facilities!surveyed,!Amritsar!Air!Force!Station!is!located!closest!to!the!Pakistani!border!
by!a!considerable!margin.!CoAlocated!with!Sri!Guru!Ram!Dass!Jee!International!Airport,!the!base!
hosts!the!No.!1!forward!base!support!unit!(FBSU).!Unlike!a!fullAfledged!airbase,!however,!FBSUs!

8!

do!not!host!any!aircraft!on!a!permanent!basis;!rather!they!maintain!the!logistics!equipment!
necessary!to!support!such!aircraft!if!needed,!acting!as!transit!airbases!under!normal!conditions,!
and!maintaining!the!capability!to!become!fully!operational!airbases!in!times!of!war.8!Given!the!
extremely!tense!atmosphere!that!prevailed!along!the!IndiaAPakistan!border!in!the!spring!of!
2002,!it!was!considered!possible!that!this!FBSU!may!have!been!placed!on!a!wartime!footing.!
Consequently,!an!image!of!it!was!acquired.!Although!a!large!number!of!logistics!vehicles!was!
noted!in!the!military!area!of!the!airfield,!no!military!combat!or!transport!aircraft!were!visible!in!
the!image!!a!state!of!affairs!that!is!consistent!with!peacetime!operations,!as!viewed!on!Google!
Earth.!These!observations!suggest!that!the!FBSU!was!not!on!a!full!wartime!footing!at!the!time.!
However,!this!conclusion!cannot!be!considered!definitive!due!to!the!extensive!use!of!covered!
aircraft!shelters,!as!observed!at!Ambala!AFS.!
!
Chandigarh!AFS!
!
Located!southeast!of!the!city!of!the!same!name,!Chandigarh!Air!Force!Station!is!a!major!base!
hosting!number!25!and!number!48!squadrons!of!the!IAFs!12th!wing,!as!well!as!the!126th!
helicopter!formation.!In!imagery!acquired!both!prior!to!and!during!the!crisis,!large!numbers!of!
airlift!and!logistics!aircraft!were!visible,!including!ILA76!heavy!transports,!AnA32!medium!
transports,!and!MiA26!heavy!transport!helicopters.!Between!April!2001!and!March!2002,!nearly!
all!of!these!aircraft!changed!position,!indicating!the!likelihood!that!most!were!in!operational!
condition,!although!the!long!duration!between!images!makes!any!assessment!of!recent!
operational!deployments!impossible.!Furthermore,!the!numbers!of!each!aircraft!type!were!
largely!consistent!between!images,!an!observation!which!suggests!that!the!vehicles!were!based!
at!Chandigarh,!and!were!not!redeployed!in!response!to!the!crisis.!An!image!of!the!Chandigarh!
flightline!is!shown!in!Figure!3.!
!
Figure!3:!The!flightline!at!Chandigarh!AFS,!India,!with!transport!aircraft!visible

Image DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.68 N, 76.79 E.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!The!Hundu.!Fighter!aircraft!for!capital!station!24!September!2014!http://www.thehindu.com/todaysApaper/tpA
national/tpAkerala/fighterAaircraftAforAcapitalAstation/article6440391.ece!accessed!on!2!March!2015.!

9!

!
Halwara!AFS!
!
The!base!of!the!number!22,!31,!and!220!Squadrons!of!the!IAFs!34th!wing,!Halwara!AFS!is!
located!in!central!Punjab!approximately!25!kilometers!southwest!of!the!city!of!Ludhiana.9!Prior!
to!2011,!media!reports!indicated!that!the!base!primarily!operated!the!MiGA23!BN.10!In!imagery!
from!prior!to!the!crisis,!no!fighter!activity!was!visible!at!this!base,!though!as!at!Amritsar!and!
Ambala,!the!extensive!use!of!covered!aircraft!shelters!makes!it!impossible!to!draw!firm!
conclusions!from!such!an!observation.!Imagery!from!2002,!however,!shows!a!very!different!
situation,!with!twenty!aircraft!visible,!including!thirteen!of!the!aforementioned!MiGA23!BNs,!as!
well!as!one!AnA32,!along!with!three!examples!of!what!appear!to!be!Sukhoi!SuA30MKIs,!one!of!
which!was!observed!in!flight!(Figure!4).!The!presence!of!the!Sukhois!is!of!particular!interest,!as!
they!represent!the!most!modern!of!all!IAF!fighter!aircraft,!with!its!first!squadron!of!the!aircraft!
only!becoming!operational!on!27!September!2002,!a!mere!three!days!prior!to!the!images!
acquisition.!Contemporary!reports!indicate!that!that!squadron!was!based!at!Pune!airbase!on!
Indias!southwestern!coast.11!Whether!the!aircraft!were!temporarily!assigned!to!Halwara!for!
potential!combat!duty!or!were!simply!visiting!as!part!of!a!training!exercise!is!unclear,!however!
the!appearance!of!these!advanced!new!fighters!in!Punjab!during!a!period!of!elevated!border!
tension!is!unlikely!to!have!gone!unnoticed!by!Pakistan!!a!fact!of!which!the!IAF!was!surely!
aware.!
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9

!GlobalSecurity.org.!Indian!Air!Force!Stations!7!September!2011!
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/india/airbase.htm!accessed!on!2!March!2015!
10
!The!Times!of!India.!IAFs!first!Sukhoi!squadron!in!Punjab!by!2011.!16!November!2008!
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2008A11A16/india/27907735_1_squadronsAairAbaseAsuA30!accessed!on!
2!March!2,!2015!
11
!S.L.!Kwast,!Proliferation!of!Russian!Military!Equipment:!Implications!for!United!States!Air!and!Space!Power,!
thesis,!Boston!University!(2003).!http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA424624!accessed!on!2!March!2015!

10!

!
Figure!4:!Aircraft!activity!at!Halwara!AFS,!India

`===W=^=p==
pJPM=jhf=E=~FI=f~==~~=
=I=~===~=PN=~=e~~~=
^cpI=~=~==~====E=
~FX==pJPMjhf=~=~=~~=
=~=e~~~=^cpX=f~=^=c=jdJOP=
_k=~=~=~~=~=e~~~=^cpK==^=
~=~=N=l=OMMOK=`~W=
PMKTR=kI=TRKSP=bK=f~s=a~=d==^~=
^^^p. Coordinates: 30.75 N, 75.63 E.

!
Sarsawa!AFS!
!
Home!to!the!117th!and!152nd!helicopter!units!of!No.!30!Wing!IAF,!Sarsawa!AFS!is!located!in!
northwestern!Uttar!Pradesh,!approximately!two!kilometers!southeast!of!the!town!of!the!same!
name.!Of!all!the!airbases!observed,!Sarsawa!AFS!is!located!furthest!from!the!Pakistani!border,!
some!280!kilometers!from!the!nearest!checkpoint.!Imagery!from!July!2002!revealed!a!large!
number!of!helicopters!present!on!the!flightline!at!the!base,!a!deployment!which,!when!this!
imagery!was!compared!with!postAcrisis!imagery!available!on!Google!Earth,!appears!typical.!
!
!
!
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!

11!

!
Indian!Army!Bases!in!Kashmir!
!
Located!among!the!Himalaya!mountains!in!IndianAadministered!Kashmir,!Leh!Cantonment!
counts!among!the!most!significant!Indian!military!installations!in!the!disputed!territory!of!
Jammu!and!Kashmir,!and!the!headquarters!of!the!armys!XIV!corps!of!the!3rd!infantry!division.!
Although!most!of!the!reports!that!resulted!from!the!standoff!concerned!areas!further!south!
along!the!border!in!Punjab,!it!was!believed!that!the!contentious!nature!of!the!border!in!Kashmir!
warranted!some!degree!of!scrutiny.!For!this!reason,!the!base!was!imaged!by!IKONOS!on!24!
January!2002,!shortly!after!the!crisis!began.!Analysis!of!this!imagery!revealed!the!presence!of!a!
large!number!of!transport!vehicles!at!the!base,!as!well!as!some!defenses!around!a!nearby!
airfield,!however!comparison!with!postAcrisis!imagery!on!Google!Earth!suggests!that!this!level!
of!activity!is!fairly!normal.!
!
In!operation!since!1984,!the!Indian!Army!base!at!Siachen!Glacier!is!the!northernmost!military!
outpost!in!IndianAcontrolled!territory,!and!at!over!6,000!meters!above!sea!level,!also!holds!the!
distinction!of!being!the!highest!military!base!in!the!world.!To!its!north,!the!border!with!
PakistanAcontrolled!Kashmir!is!poorly!defined!and!covered!by!a!massive!ice!sheet!whose!
dangerous!terrain!and!weather!have!killed!far!more!soldiers!than!the!frequent!skirmishes!that!
take!place!between!Indian!and!Pakistani!patrols.!The!ambiguity!of!the!border!and!history!of!
violence!between!the!opposing!forces!make!Siachen!Glacier!an!attractive!target!for!imaging!in!a!
crisis!situation,!and!an!image!of!the!base!was!acquired!on!20!March!2002.!Analysis!of!this!image!
revealed!the!presence!of!four!helicopters!and!sixteen!fortified!artillery!pieces!(Figure!5).!
However,!as!was!the!case!at!Leh!Cantonment,!a!comparison!with!postAcrisis!imagery!in!Google!
Earth!indicates!that!such!deployments!are!not!unusual.!!
!
Figure!5:!Siachen!Glacier!Forward!Logistics!Base,!IndianUAdministered!Kashmir!!

The!Forward!Logistics!Base!at!Siachen!glacier!on!20!March!2002;!several!helicopters!(indicated!by!arrows)!are!
visible,!however!this!appears!to!be!normal!for!the!base.!Image DigitalGlobe | Analysis AAAS. Coordinates:!35.18!
N,!77.21!E.!

12!

!
Indian!Army!Bases!in!Punjab!and!Haryana!
!
Due!to!their!strategic!location!in!the!lowlands!between!the!Indian!capital!and!the!Pakistani!
border,!the!army!bases!in!Punjab!and!Haryana!were!considered!excellent!targets!for!imaging.!
Although!tanks!and!artillery!are!smaller!and!less!obvious!than!aircraft,!the!movements!of!such!
assets!are!no!less!useful!from!an!analytical!point!of!view.!For!example,!at!Jalandhar!
Cantonment,!the!headquarters!for!the!Indian!Armys!XI!corps,!analysis!revealed!parking!lots!and!
depots!full!of!vehicles!and!artillery!pieces!in!preAcrisis!imagery!from!early!2001.!By!the!summer!
of!2002,!however,!nearly!all!of!these!had!disappeared,!as!would!be!expected!if!they!had!been!
deployed!to!the!front!lines!of!the!conflict!(Figure!6).!During!the!same!period,!air!defenses!were!
also!constructed!at!the!base,!and!a!number!of!helicopters!were!observed!that!had!not!
previously!been!present.!!
!
This!pattern!was!repeated!at!Patiala!Cantonment,!home!base!of!the!1st!armoured!division,!
where!imagery!from!the!spring!of!2001!showed!large!numbers!of!heavy!trucks!and!other!
vehicles,!most!of!which!had!disappeared!by!late!January!2002!(Figure!7).!Ambala!Cantonment,!
adjacent!to!the!airfield!of!the!same!name,!headquarters!of!the!Armys!II!Corps,!and!base!of!the!
40th!artillery!division,!also!saw!a!drastic!reduction!in!the!number!of!vehicles!present!(Figure!8).!
Not!all!bases!proved!fruitful!for!analysis,!however.!Amritsar!Cantonment!!also!adjacent!to!an!
air!force!station!!showed!little!to!no!change!between!the!fall!of!2001!and!the!spring!of!2002.!A!
similar!lack!of!activity!was!observed!at!Chandimandir!Cantonment!between!imagery!acquired!
during!and!after!the!crisis.!
!
Figure!6:!Disappearing!Vehicles!and!Artillery!at!Jalandhar!Cantonment,!India,!22!April!2001!U!16!
July!2002

!Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 31.29 N, 75.62 E.

!
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13!

Figure!7:!Disappearing!Vehicles!and!Artillery!at!Patiala!Cantonment,!India,!11!April!2001!U!24!
January!2002

Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.32 N, 76.37 E.

!
Figure!8:!Disappearing!Vehicles!at!Ambala!Cantonment,!India,!8!April!2001!!21!January!2002!

Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.39 N, 76.80 E.

!
Pakistani!Air!Force!Bases!
!
PAF!Base!Rafiqui!
!
Located!in!a!rural!area!of!Punjab!some!200!kilometers!southwest!of!Lahore,!PAF!Base!Rafiqui!is!
the!home!base!of!five!squadrons!of!the!No.!34!Fighter!Wing,!equipped!with!several!variants!of!
Dassault!Mirage!3!and!Mirage!5,!as!well!as!the!FA7PG,!an!export!version!of!the!Chengdu!JA7,!
itself!a!Chinese!variant!of!the!MiGA21.!Rafiqui!was!imaged!twice!during!the!height!of!the!crisis,!
with!only!eleven!days!separating!the!observations.!This!had!the!potential!to!expose!the!
movements!of!aircraft!on!a!timescale!relevant!to!ongoing!tactical!operations,!as!to!opposed!
!

14!

longAterm!deployments.!Analysis!of!this!imagery!revealed!activity!consistent!with!such!
operations.!On!21!February!2002,!three!FA7s!and!three!Mirages!were!visible!on!the!base,!while!
on!4!March,!two!of!the!three!examples!of!each!aircraft!type!were!no!longer!present.!Notably,!
the!two!Mirages!that!disappeared!between!February!and!March!were!both!accompanied!by!
what!appear!to!be!maintenance!vehicles!in!the!earlier!image,!indicating!preparations!for!flight!
(Figure!9).!
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Figure!9:!Aircraft!movements!at!PAF!Base!Rafiqui,!21!February!2002!!4!March!2002

!Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.76 N, 72.28 E.

!
PAF!Base!Minhas!
!
Home!of!the!14th!and!87th!squadrons!of!the!33rd!multiArole/fighter!wing,!PAF!Base!Minhas!is!
located!sixty!kilometers!northwest!of!Islamabad,!and!its!units!are!reported!to!be!equipped!with!
Chengdu!FA7s.!In!imagery!from!October!2001,!before!the!crisis,!four!of!these!are!visible!in!the!
open!at!a!number!of!locations!around!the!base,!along!with!seven!Dassault!Mirages,!and!two!
aircraft!whose!type!could!not!be!determined.!Also!present!were!two!nearly!obsolete!Shenyang!
FA6s,!the!export!variant!of!the!Chinese!JA6!(itself!a!copy!of!the!Russian!MiGA19),!which!were!
retired!by!Pakistan!five!months!later.12!By!February!2002,!however,!only!one!FA7,!one!Mirage,!
and!two!unknown!aircraft!were!visible,!consistent!with!a!strategy!of!concealment!or!
redeployment!elsewhere.!Additionally,!a!number!of!new!defensive!positions!had!been!
constructed!at!both!ends!of!the!runway!(Figure!10).!
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12

!Defence!Journal.!Final!Salute!to!FA6.!May!2002!http://www.defencejournal.com/2002/may/salute.htm!
accessed!on!2!March!2015!

15!

Figure!10:!Aircraft!movements!and!airUdefense!construction!at!PAF!Base!Minhas,!15!
October!2001!U!10!February!2002

At!PAF!Base!Minhas,!aircraft!parked!in!the!open!prior!to!the!crisis!(A)!are!no!longer!visible!during!the!period!of!
heightened!tensions!with!India!(B).!Over!the!same!period,!antiUaircraft!artillery!has!been!installed!at!the!end!of!the!
bases!runway!(CUD).!Images!DigitalGlobe!|!Analysis!AAAS.!Coordinates:!33.87!N,!72.40!E.!

!
PAF!Base!Chaklala!
!
Now!known!as!PAF!Base!Nur!Khan,!the!facility!known!during!the!crisis!as!PAF!Base!Chaklala!is!
coAlocated!with!Islamabad!International!Airport.!The!base!hosts!the!35th!Composite!Air!
Transport!Wing,!equipped!with!a!large!number!of!transport!aircraft.!Its!various!squadrons!
include!cargo!planes!such!as!the!Lockheed!CA130!and!Ilyushin!IlA78,!as!well!as!passenger!aircraft!
ranging!from!the!wide!body!airliners!such!as!the!Airbus!A310!to!business!jets!like!the!
Gulfstream!IV!and!Dassault!Falcon!to!small!propellerAdriven!transports!such!as!the!Piper!PAA34!
and!Cessna!172.!The!airbase!is!also!located!directly!adjacent!to!Rawalpindi!Cantonment,!which!
contains!GHQ!!the!general!headquarters!of!the!Pakistani!Army.!Because!of!its!proximity!to!the!
!

16!

city!of!Rawalpindi,!the!area!was!imaged!multiple!times!both!before!and!during!the!crisis,!and!
represented!an!ideal!target!for!assessing!the!state!of!Pakistans!air!transportation!assets,!as!
well!as!the!commandAandAcontrol!facilities!of!its!armed!forces.!!
!
Due!to!the!sharing!of!facilities!between!the!military!base!and!the!busy!civilian!airport,!along!
with!the!fact!that!many!of!the!aircraft!of!the!35th!wing!are!also!widely!used!by!civilian!
operators,!distinguishing!military!from!civilian!activity!at!the!base!was!often!impossible.!
Nevertheless,!imagery!acquired!on!27!June!2000,!though!of!poor!quality,!was!sufficient!to!
reveal!the!presence!of!military!aircraft,!including!seven!CA130!Hercules!transports.!By!10!
February!2002,!only!six!CA130s!were!visible,!and!although!their!parking!configuration!had!
changed,!the!deployment!showed!little!substantive!change.!At!an!apron!adjacent!to!runway!12,!
however,!three!fighter!aircraft!were!visible!that!had!not!been!present!in!preAcrisis!imagery,!
though!the!quality!of!the!image!was!insufficient!to!definitively!identify!their!type.!By!June!2002,!
the!fighters!were!no!longer!present,!and!the!number!of!CA130s!remained!constant!at!six.!
!
Pakistan!Army!Bases!
!
With!its!capital!resting!less!than!one!hundred!kilometers!from!the!line!of!control,!Pakistan!
places!enormous!emphasis!on!the!defense!of!the!plains!of!Punjab,!and!has!constructed!many!
army!bases!in!the!area.!One!of!these,!Mangla!Cantonment,!is!located!75!kilometers!southwest!
of!Islamabad,!and!serves!as!the!headquarters!for!the!Armys!I!corps,!as!well!as!hosting!its!19th!
infantry!division.!Although!little!in!the!way!of!weapons!was!observed!at!this!location,!between!
September!2001!and!the!end!of!January!2002,!imagery!reveals!that!hundreds!of!trucks!and!
other!logistics!vehicles!disappeared!from!parking!lots!and!vehicle!depots!throughout!the!base,!
as!shown!in!Figure!11.!
!
Figure!11:!Disappearing!vehicles!at!Mangla!Cantonment,!15!September!2001!U!30!January!2002

!Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 33.13 N, 73.62 E.

!
!

17!

This!scene!repeated!itself!at!bases!throughout!Pakistan.!For!example,!at!Jhelum!Cantonment,!
25!kilometers!south!of!Mangla!Cantonment,!large!numbers!of!trucks!were!observed!in!preAcrisis!
imagery,!along!with!a!number!of!pieces!of!field!artillery.!By!January!2002,!however,!the!artillery!
and!many!of!the!trucks!had!disappeared,!and!a!convoy!of!military!vehicles!was!seen!on!the!
streets!immediately!adjacent!to!the!base!(Figure!12).!
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Figure!12:!Vehicles!and!artillery!vanish!from!Jhelum,!20!December!2000!U!27!January!2002!
!

^=g=~I=m~~I=~=~==
J=~=J=~=~=~=
~====E^I=_F=~=~=E`I=aF=
====~=K=q=
==~=~=====~=
=~=EbF==~====
~===~~===
==K=Images DigitalGlobe |
Analysis AAAS.`~W=POKVOkI= TPKTNbK=
=

19!

A!similar!disappearance!of!artillery!was!observed!in!Multan!Cantonment,!headquarters!of!the!II!
Corps!and!1st!armoured!division,!in!southwest!Punjab.!Air!defenses!were!constructed!there!
during!the!same!time!period,!as!shown!in!Figure!13.!
!
Figure!13:!Disappearing!guns!and!air!defense!construction!in!Multan!Cantonment,!1!September!
2001!U!26!September!2002

Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 30.23 N, 71.40 E.

!
Not!all!bases!exhibited!this!effect,!however.!Notably,!Rawalpindi!cantonment!showed!little!to!
no!visible!activity!in!the!three!images!that!were!acquired!of!it!(the!same!three!that!covered!PAF!
base!Chaklala).!One!explanation!for!this!may!be!that,!as!the!general!headquarters!of!the!
Pakistani!army,!Rawalpindi!cantonment!may!be!more!focused!on!command!and!control!than!on!
the!logistical!elements!of!military!affairs.!Muree!cantonment,!located!north!of!Islamabad!near!
the!disputed!territory!of!Kashmir,!also!showed!no!visible!activity!at!all!!a!finding!that!is!
consistent!with!the!lack!of!a!noticeable!increase!in!militarization!observed!along!the!northern!
border!on!the!Indian!side!(e.g.,!Siachen!glacier).!Rahwali!Cantonment,!located!just!north!of!the!

20!

city!of!Gujranwala,!is!the!headquarters!of!the!Armys!XXX!corps;!it!also!hosts!the!6th!armoured!
division,!2nd!artillery!division,!and!No.!4!Army!aviation!squadron.!The!same!emptying!of!vehicles!
and!artillery!that!was!observed!in!other!bases!may!have!taken!place!at!this!site!as!well!!both!
vehicles!and!artillery!were!observed!in!before!imagery!!however!the!presence!of!clouds!
prevented!confirmation!of!the!assets!removal.!
!
Border!Regions*
!
Despite!the!reportedly!intense!militarization!that!took!place!along!the!border,!attempts!to!
image!the!frontier!directly!returned!little!usable!information!!particularly!when!compared!to!
the!large!areas!covered!by!each!image.!There!are!several!possible!explanations!for!this,!which!
need!not!be!mutually!exclusive!of!oneAanother.!First,!the!border!between!India!and!Pakistan!is!
2900!kilometers!long,!and!even!large!numbers!of!troops!and!equipment!will!necessarily!
become!less!dense!when!dispersed!along!such!a!frontier.!Second,!when!in!the!field!!and!
particularly!in!crisis!situations!!militaries!often!go!to!great!lengths!to!conceal!and!camouflage!
their!positions.!Finally,!the!area!that!was!imaged!represents!only!a!very!small!fraction!of!the!
entire!border.!Although!much!research!went!into!determining!which!locations!along!the!border!
were!most!likely!to!reveal!significant!deployments,!it!is!possible!that!the!bulk!of!the!mobilized!
forces!were!located!elsewhere.!Nevertheless,!some!relevant!observations!were!made!in!the!
border!areas.!In!the!section!of!the!border,!20!kilometers!northeast!of!Lahore,!for!example,!
freshly!constructed!earthworks!were!visible!on!the!Indian!side!of!the!border,!with!a!small!
cluster!of!vehicles!concealed!directly!behind!them.!Nearby,!on!the!Pakistani!side,!several!small!
mortar!emplacements!were!observed!in!fields!(Figure!14).!
!
Figure!14:!Defensive!Earthworks!and!Probable!Mortar!Positions!along!the!border,!5!June!2002

Images DigitalGlobe|Analysis AAAS. Coordinates: 31.73 N, 74.50 E.

!
*
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*
!

21!

Interpretation*
!
Despite!their!large!size!and!easily!identifiable!shapes,!analysis!of!aircraft!deployments!appears!
to!be!an!unreliable!metric!for!interpreting!conflict!along!the!IndiaAPakistan!border.!Due!to!the!
topAdown!perspective!afforded!by!satellite!imagery,!the!use!of!hangars!or!other!shelters!that!
obstruct!the!view!of!aircraft!from!above!are!extremely!effective!at!limiting!the!effectiveness!of!
such!methods.!Even!if!not!being!used,!the!mere!presence!of!such!facilities!at!an!airfield!vastly!
increases!the!uncertainties!associated!with!aircraft!counts,!as!each!such!shelter!represents!at!
least!one!aircraft!!and!often!many!more!!that!may!or!may!not!be!present.!Furthermore,!if!a!
belligerents!goal!is!to!limit!the!exposure!of!their!aircraft!to!possible!enemy!fire,!the!dispersal!
and/or!concealment!of!those!assets!in!hangars!or!hardened!shelters!makes!good!tactical!sense!
during!a!crisis!situation.!Though!far!from!conclusive,!the!activity!observed!at!PAF!Base!Minhas!
provides!some!evidence!that!this!may!have!been!put!into!effect.!Despite!these!problems,!when!
they!are!sighted,!aircraft!are!capable!of!providing!useful!information,!as!illustrated!by!the!
detection!of!the!topAofAthe!line!SuA30MKIs!at!an!airfield!far!from!their!home!base,!and!
intimidatingly!close!to!the!Pakistani!border.!
!
Analysis!of!groundAbased!assets!shows!considerably!more!promise!as!an!indicator!of!
heightened!tension.!Unlike!aircraft,!large!numbers!of!transport,!logistics!vehicles,!and!artillery!
in!Indian!and!Pakistani!military!bases!are!stored!in!outdoor!depots!during!peacetime.!In!times!
of!crisis,!however,!these!facilities!appear!to!become!empty!regardless!of!the!side!of!the!border!
on!which!they!are!found.!Presumably,!this!phenomenon!reflects!decisionAmaking!on!the!part!of!
Indian!and!Pakistani!military!planners,!and!manifests!itself!when!the!absent!vehicles!and!
weapons!shift!from!being!held!in!reserve!to!being!forward!deployed!!a!conclusion!supported!
by!the!observation!of!a!moving!military!convoy!outside!Jhelum!Cantonment.!Both!air!force!and!
army!bases!also!often!saw!the!construction!of!new!antiAaircraft!batteries,!which!can!be!
interpreted!as!a!sign!of!increased!expectation!of!aerial!attack.!
!
When!studying!a!border!as!lengthy!as!the!one!that!separates!India!and!Pakistan,!imaging!of!the!
entire!border!itself!is!impractical!without!an!extremely!large!budget!for!imagery!acquisition!and!
analysis.!Attempts!to!sample!the!border!at!areas!that!appear!likely!to!show!signs!of!tension!
were!partially!successful.!However,!the!small!number!of!observed!phenomena!compared!to!the!
cost!of!the!imagery!and!time!required!for!the!analysis!of!such!large!areas!makes!this!technique!
less!effective!than!methods!that!involve!the!targeting!of!known!military!areas.!
!
Conclusions!
!
In!late!2001!and!early!2002,!India!and!Pakistan!were!at!the!brink!of!what!would!have!been!their!
fifth!war!in!fiftyAfour!years.!The!standoff!was!the!result!of!a!longArunning!territorial!dispute!that!
dates!back!to!the!partition!of!British!India.!That!the!crisis!was!resolved!before!it!escalated!into!
fullAscale!war!does!not!diminish!its!utility!as!a!learning!tool!for!studying!border!conflict.!
Statements!and!actions!from!both!sides!reinforce!the!conclusion!that!war!between!two!hostile!
and!nuclearAarmed!powers!was!imminent.!Despite!the!challenges!associated!with!monitoring!a!
conflict!of!such!magnitude,!the!use!of!remote!sensing!to!draw!conclusions!from!this!
!

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confrontation!was!largely!successful.!In!particular,!the!results!underline!the!importance!of!
making!targeted!observations!of!known!military!facilities,!as!opposed!to!semiArandom!samples!
of!the!border!in!question,!which!is!problematic!due!to!concealment,!dispersal,!and!the!large!
size!of!the!area!in!question.!Monitoring!ground!forces!is!especially!useful!!particularly!those!
bases!known!to!contain!artillery!and!armored!forces.!Aircraft!and!airbases!tend!to!produce!
more!ambiguous!results!due!to!the!lower!numbers!of!assets!and!high!potential!for!
concealment.!

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