You are on page 1of 31

1

Market Pulse
December 2016

Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of more than 300
California REALTORS.
The survey was sent via email to a random
sample of 10,000 REALTORS throughout
California. The sample represented the
geographical distribution of C.A.R.
membership across the state.
Respondents are asked about their last
closed transaction and business activity in
their market area for the previous month.

Click to edit Master title style

Market Conditions

Floor Calls Decreases


Index (>50 is positive)
80
70
60

46

Index

50
40
30

41
39

20
10
0

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

Listing Appointments/Client Presentations Up


YTY
Index (>50 is positive)
80
70
60

Index

50
40
30

44
36

20
10
0

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market area this
month was
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

40

Open House Traffic Increases YTY


90

Index (>50 is positive)

80
70

Index

60
50

45

40
30

33

20
10
0

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

43

All Cash Purchases Decreases


Index (>50 is positive)
70
60

Index

50

48

40
30
20
10
0

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

44
41

Lack of Inventory is the Biggest Concern


Lack of Inventory

29%

Decline in housing affordability

21%

Rising interest rates

17%

Inflated home prices

12%

Housing bubble

5.7%

Slow down in economic

4.5%

Lending & financing

3.8%

Policy & regulations

2.6%
0%

10%

20%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

30%

40%

REALTORS Remain Most Concerned About


Inventory & Affordability
Inventory

Affordability

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

Affordability and Prices are the


Biggest Concerns for REALTORS
Prices (Affordability, Prices, Bubble)
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

Inventory

Market Expectations Climbs for 5th Month


Index (>50 is positive)
90
80
70

Index

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

65

65
58

12

Click to edit Master title style

Last Transaction

More Properties Selling At or Above Asking


Price from Year Ago
Below

At

Over

100%
90%

18%

80%
70%

25%

60%

25%
23%
34%
31%

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

57%

44%
43%

More Properties Selling Below Asking Price


from a Year Ago
Net % of Properties Selling Below/Above Asking Price
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-19%
-30%
-40%
-39%
-50%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

-20%

Premium Paid Increases


Average
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%

11%
9.2%

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

8.4%

% Paid Below Asking Price Doubles

Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
0%

-5%

-10%
-11%
-13%

-15%

-20%
-22%
-25%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

64% of Properties Received Multiple Offers


80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

65%

66%

64%

Offers Received Flat from Year Ago


4.0

Average

3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

2.5

2.4

2.5

Number of Offers Received Unchanged YTY


Dec-15
35%

Dec-16

33% 34%

30%

26%

25%

24%
20% 21%

20%
15%

9.0%

10%

7.6%
4.5% 4.6%

6.0% 6.9%

5%
0%
1

3
4
Number of Offers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

6+

Proportion of 3+ Offers Flat from a Year Ago


1-2

100%

3+

90%
80%

40%

40%
36%

70%
60%
50%

64%

40%
30%

60%

20%
10%
0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

60%

3+ Offers Dropped Most in High End


Percentage of Properties Receiving 3+
Offers

Dec-15
80%

75%

75%

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%

Dec-16

63%

55%

56%
47%

47%
33%

39%
27%

24%

20%

20%

14%

36%
20%

10%
0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

17%

26% of Properties Had Listing Price Reductions


35%
30%

30%

31%
26%

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

Proportion of Buyers Who Were Renters Increases


60%
50%

44%
39%

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the
property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

36%

More Sellers Became Renters


25%

19%

20%

14%

15%

12%
10%

5%

0%

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the
property?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

Share of First-time Buyers Dipped Below Long Run


Average
45%

% First-time Buyers

Long Run Average

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

33%
30%
29%

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences


Primary residence

Investment

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

Vacation home

Other

Share of Investment Properties Decreased


Investment

Vacation home

30%
25%
20%

5.1%
3.1%

15%
10%

17%

5%

16%

0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

Proportion of International Buyers Declined


% International Buyers

Long Run Average (6.3%)

12%
10%

8.7%

8%
6%

6.4%

4%
2%

2.6%

0%

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

Top 10 Counties of Respondents


November 2016

December 2016

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

San Diego

Orange

Orange

Riverside

Riverside

San Diego

Alameda

Contra Costa

Contra Costa

Alameda

San Bernardino

Kern

Sacramento

Ventura

San Francisco

Sacramento

10

San Mateo

San Bernardino

Q: In which county do you live?


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

What are REALTORS Saying?

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share with us--such as
information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or other topics?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

What are REALTORS Saying?


Lack of inventory has driven prices up.
Appraisals are not reflective of new values and
increasing market.
People leaving California because it is too expensive
to bring young people into the state.
The potential for rising interest rates and an economy
tilted toward the top 1% gives me cause for concern.
Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share with us--such as
information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or other topics?
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

You might also like