Professional Documents
Culture Documents
217222, 1999
# 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd and IPMA. All rights reserved
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This paper treats investment decision-making under uncertainty and risk. Some of the methods
used for investment decision-making under uncertainty and risk are presented: Break-even
Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Theory of Games and Decision Making Theory. Sensitivity
Analysis is given special consideration, and one of the procedures of its application in investment
decision making under uncertainty and risk is shown. # 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd and IPMA.
All rights reserved
Keywords: sensitivity analysis, investment project evaluation
Introduction
The real world we are living in is a world of uncertainty, a world whose future occurrences and conditions we are, in most cases, not able to predict.
Permanent confrontation of Man with this growing
complexity, together with the need to overcome it,
force one to continually forecast future circumstances
of Nature in order to get adapted. One is compelled to
predict because he/she needs to take appropriate management action in this confrontation with the environment. The only clearly dened certainty is the past,
while investment problems relate to future only.
The majority of management-related problems of an
enterprise, including management of investments, are
lived through under uncertainty, with absence of a
priori information necessary for solutions thereof. The
lack of any possibility to predict future events and parameters largely aects correct evaluation of investment
projects and decreases the realistic possibilities of
investment decision-making.1
It is quite clear that investment decision-making
never takes place under conditions of certainty, but
only under those of uncertainty or risk. It is therefore
necessary to dene and locate the investment decisionmaking problem in its real conditions, and possibly
nd suitable and appropriate solutions. Certainty used
when applying quantitative criteria and methods is
only the price of decreasing the great complexity in
order to make it possible for us to use exact instruments and means. It is quite obvious, however, that
we are living in a world of uncertainty, whose environment conditions we are mostly not able to predict perfectly. This impossibility to foresee potential future
events accurately enough, and predict practical values
Break-even Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario Method
Theory of Games and Decision Making Theory, etc.
Sensitivity analysis
Investment project evaluation, and research of criteria
which make the basis of this evaluation are performed
through an agency of certain input values serving for
calculation of individual criteria. Due to the eect of
dierent factors it is potentially possible that these
input values are not realized in the future, which
makes our nal evaluation scores incorrect. If we want
to take into consideration all possible consequences,
we have to analyse, in advance, the eect of potential
changes of the starting values on the nal factual state
or results obtained by the calculation with these
values, which is performed through procedures of the
Sensitivity Analysis.
Sensitivity Analysis is the calculating procedure used
for prediction of eect of changes of input data on
output results of one model. This procedure is often
used in investment decision making related with the
investment project evaluation under conditions of
uncertainty.4
Sensitivity Analysis of the eectiveness criterion for
investment project evaluation is the calculating procedure of researching and determining the eect of
changes of individual values taken into the calculation
on the values of individual criteria, as well as on the
nal investment project evaluation. In other words, it
is a procedure that analyses how the changes of certain
input values (income, costs, value of investments, etc.),
produced due to inappropriate prediction or for some
other reason, inuence certain criteria values and the
total investment project evaluation. Applying this
analysis it is possible to nd the maximum or minimum points which one value may take while, however,
still allowing an investment project to be justied and
acceptable for realization.
In the investment project evaluation we have at our
disposal a set of criteria (Net Present Value, Internal
Rate of Return, Pay-back Period, etc.) as the basis for
evaluation (set of output values), and the set of values
(income, costs, discount rate, value of investments,
etc.) on the basis of which we can calculate certain individual criteria (input values), as shown by the diagram in Figure 1.5
n
X
NIk
k0
1 i k
n
X
NIk
k0
1 i k
Pay-back Period
The Pay-back Period is dened as the period (years)
for which the discounted net income per year will
cover the discounted total value of investments.
Mathematical expression of this criterion is:
n
X
Ik
k0
1 ik
n
X
NIk*
k0
1 ik
projects incomes
project costs
value of investments
d
m
k
1.00
1.26
1.51
1.77
2.03
2.29
2.54
2.80
IRR (%)
PBP (years)
28.2
4.8
19.6
7.5
13.8
No
9.5
No
6.2
No
3.5
No
1.3
No
No
No
Conclusion
This paper studies the investment project evaluation
and the decision-making problems under the conditions of uncertainty. Evaluation of investment projects under uncertainty and risk is possible to be
carried out through application of various methods
and techniques. The best known methods are: Break-
221
References
1. Squire, L. and Tak, H.G., Economic Analysis of Project, J.
Hopkins, Baltimore, 1979.
2. Jovanovic, P., Investment Management, Faculty of
Organizational Sciences, Belgrade, 1991.
3. Manual for Evaluation of Industrial Projects, UNIDO, 1979.
4. Adler, H.A., Economic Appraisal of Transport Projects, The
Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1987.
5. Stone, R., Management of Engineering Projects, Macmillan
Education, London, 1988.
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