ENGG 2430E Assignment 2

Due Date: 5pm, Feb.27, 2014

Problem 1. In Eurasia 10% of males are illiterate, and 5% of females are
illiterate. The population consists of 40% males and 60% females. A
person is chosen at random, all people equally likely.
(a) What is the probability that the person is illiterate?
(b) What is the probability that the person is a male given that they are
illiterate?
Problem 2. There are two fair dice, A and B. Die A has 4 red sides and 2
blue sides, and die B has 4 blue sides and 2 red sides.
A coin is tossed. If it comes out heads, we toss die A twice, and if the coin
comes out tails, we toss die B twice.
(a) The coin is a fair coin (probability 1/2 for each side). Given that the
outcome of the die is twice blue, what is the probability that we
tossed die A?
(b) The coin is an unfair coin, with probability 3/4 for heads and 1/4 for
tails. Given that the outcomes of the die are first blue and then red,
what is the probability that we tossed die B?
(c) We dont know if the coin is fair or not. We want to calculate the
probability it comes out heads. We know that the probability of
blue-blue is 1/4. What is the probability the coin lands heads?
Problem 3.
(a) Explain what it means to say that three events A, B and C are mutually
independent.
(b) The top card of a thoroughly shuffled deck of playing cards is turned
over. Let A be the event the card is an Ace, R be the event the card
belongs to a red suit ( or ), and M be the event the card belongs
to a major suit ( or ). Show that the events A, R and M are
mutually independent.
Problem 4. While watching a game of Champions League football in a
caf, you observe someone who is clearly supporting Manchester United

in the game.
What is the probability that they were actually born within 25 miles of
Manchester? Assume that:
The probability that a randomly selected person in a typical local bar
environment is born within 25 miles of Manchester is 1/20;
The chance that a person born within 25 miles of Manchester actually
supports United is 7/10;
The probability that a person not born within 25 miles of Manchester
supports United with probability 1/10.
Problem 5. Each member of a squad of 18 cricketers is either a batsmen
or a bowler. The squad contains 10 batsmen and 8 bowlers. An eccentric
coach chooses a team by picking a random set of 11 players from the
squad.
(a) What is the probability that the team is made up of 6 batsmen and 5
bowlers?
(b) What is the probability that the team contains fewer than 3 bowlers?
Problem 6. When I open a bank account I am allocated a 4 digit personal
identification number (PIN) at random. Find the probability of each of the
following events, giving brief explanations for your answers.
(a) Every digit of my PIN is even.
(b) My PIN has no repeated digits.
(c) My PIN is palindromic (reads the same forwards as backwards).
(d) No digit of my PIN exceeds 7.
(e) The digits in my PIN are in strictly increasing order.