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Keywords: USMyanmar relations, US Burma policy, military engagement, congressional foreign policy entrepreneurship
Dr. Jrgen Haacke is an associate professor of International Relations
at the London School of Economics and Political Science. His research
interests focus in general on the international politics of Southeast Asia
and more particularly on Myanmars politics and foreign policy.
E-mail: <J.Haacke@lse.ac.uk>
56
Introduction
Jrgen Haacke
Few would disagree that in the 1990s and first decade of the 2000s the
United States Burma policy was essentially driven by a combination of
major human rights concerns and Washingtons support for the restoration of democracy. Even in 2008, the administration of George W. Bush,
like its predecessors and many members of Congress on both sides of
the aisle, still sought regime change in Myanmar. Officials and activists
alike, but also many academics, had by then been denying for two decades that the United States had strategic interests in the country, and they
had overwhelmingly dismissed the odd suggestion that there was a geopolitical rationale for engaging Myanmars military regime (for exceptions,
see Badgley 2004; Ott 1998). That said, under President Obama US
Burma policy has been revamped as a focus on engagement replaced
years of efforts to isolate and shame the countrys political-military leadership. While much of the administrations declaratory policy and practical focus regarding Myanmar has been on helping the country with its
political transition, it is the understanding of various observers (e.g.
Lintner 2011; The Economist 2011) that Obamas Burma policy in the
context of the US rebalance to the Asia-Pacific has been driven by
concerns about geopolitical change in East Asia, specifically the rise of
China.1 This raises the question of to what extent USMyanmar relations
may follow the path of other bilateral relationships Washington enjoys
with other Southeast Asian states, particularly as regards security and
defence dialogues and military cooperation. How far have USMyanmar
relations advanced? Is there a security partnership in the offing between
Washington and Naypyidaw following the many years of antagonism? To
address in particular this last question, the article will examine the politics
of US foreign policy making towards Myanmar. Specifically, it asks how
the interplay between the US administration and Congress has impacted
the policymaking vis--vis Burma on military engagement.
The article builds on a number of very basic insights into foreign
policy making in Washington. The first concerns the relationship between the executive and Congress in relation to foreign policy. The administration may often initiate and take the lead on foreign policy issues,
but it is also accepted that while the president may be central to policymaking, he is not always at the centre of policymaking (Scott 1996: 12).
Congress has numerous tools at its disposal, not least the power of the
purse, and though some argue that it has been deferential in its dealings
1
57
with the executive (e.g. Weissman 1995), the two branches of government have a history of conflict and struggle over foreign policy (Briggs
1994). Second, individual congressional foreign policy entrepreneurs play
a major role in shaping US foreign policy towards particular countries
(Carter and Scott 2009). This is true not least as regards human rights
and democracy issues that tend to attract bipartisan support. Third,
neither the foreign policy executive nor the US Congress operates in a
vacuum. Both take into account the views and positions of interest
groups, think tanks as well as domestic and transnational non-governmental organisations (NGOs), including ethnic solidarity organisations.
To be sure, conflict lines do not necessarily lie only between the executive branch and Congress instead, they may involve competing clusters
that consist of voices from the executive, Congress and non-governmental entities (Hersman 2000).
Bearing these points in mind, the article will first offer an overview
of how the Obama administration has sought to develop USMyanmar
relations and how it aims to further influence Burmese national politics.
In a further step, the article will then focus on how the politics surrounding the making of US Burma policy in Washington shape the nature of
USMyanmar ties. The main conclusions are that particularly during the
first term of the Obama administration, the State Department became a
key incubator and vehicle for change in US Burma policy, whereas congressional voices remained largely subdued. However, as Myanmars
political reforms failed to advance beyond the key concessions offered
by 2012, Burma has again become more of a point of open controversy
between the administration and Congress. As we shall see, members of
Congress, having lost influence over the making of policy towards
Naypyidaw with the arrival of the Obama administration, have reasserted
themselves, especially on the issue of civilmilitary relations. The immediate outlook is that existing congressional resistance to more substantial
military-to-military relations is likely to place a ceiling on a further deepening of bilateral ties, at least until the expected formation of a new government in Naypyidaw in early 2016.
Not least given the brutal suppression of the political upheaval that
brought forth the end of the Burma Socialist Programme Party, the onset of renewed direct military rule, the government of Myanmars violent
campaigns against anti-regime groups and the refusal of the military to
heed the results of the 1990 elections, US Burma policy after 1988 came
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Jrgen Haacke
59
60
Jrgen Haacke
as June 2011 (see Yun 2011). For Naypyidaw, however, the administrations non-abandonment of pragmatic engagement seems to have
served as a major confidence-building measure.
61
seen as legitimate, Daw Aung San Suu Kyis endorsement was vital. The
administration thus continued to closely consult with her as the Thein
Sein government moved forward with reforms. Ultimately, the substantive steps taken by Washington in response in 2012 proved possible only
because Daw Aung San Suu Kyi agreed with the Obama administration
that the time for a new approach had come.2
This argument is based on numerous discussions the author has had in Washington, DC.
62
Jrgen Haacke
President Obama also signed a new executive order that allows, for instance,
the imposition of sanctions against those determined to have engaged in acts
that directly or indirectly threaten the peace, security, or stability of Burma,
such as actions that have the purpose or effect of undermining or obstructing
the political reform process or the peace process with ethnic minorities in
Burma; those responsible [for] or complicit in, or responsible for ordering,
controlling, or otherwise directing, or [those found] to have participated in, the
commission of human rights abuses in Burma; and those who have, directly
or indirectly, imported, exported, re-exported, sold, or supplied arms or related
material from North Korea or the Government of North Korea to Burma or
the Government of Burma.
63
reforms, 4 the administration announced 171 million USD in development assistance during the Obama visit. For some (e.g. Martin 2013), the
change in US rhetoric regarding a partnership for democracy, peace and
prosperity reflected the shift of the Obama administration from a relatively cautious approach towards Naypyidaw focusing on action-foraction, to a position where Washington aims to play a major supporting
role in helping to deliver Myanmars political, economic and social reforms.
Washington has certainly sought to assist Myanmars reforms in
many ways. These include offering policy recommendations and technical advice on new legislation, providing training and financing assistance programmes. More specifically, Washington has, for instance,
made available considerable funds to promote health5 and also encouraged the Burmese government to quadruple its own health budget (Morrison et al. 2014). The Obama administration has, moreover, made available funding to foster economic opportunity, increase food security and
meet other basic human needs to enable the population to contribute to
and sustain reforms. It has also aimed to enhance human rights and civil
liberties, promote the rule of law and even showcase the advantages of
the US political system. USAID has put significant emphasis on political
education and support measures designed to ensure free, fair and credible elections in 2015 (including political-party development and general
voter education). To this end, USAID announced a three-year, multimillion dollar programme in March 2013.
When President U Thein Sein visited Washington in May 2013, the
first such visit by a Burmese head-of-state since Ne Wins trip in 1966,
the two governments would also sign a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, reflecting the interest of both countries in achieving
expanded trade of products and services and an improved investment
climate in Myanmar.6 Some sanctions remain, however. Notably, while
the import ban contained in the Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act
of 2003 expired in 2013, President Obama issued Executive Order 13651,
4
5
6
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Jrgen Haacke
65
uty chief of staff, visited Washington in April 2014 and outlined before a
wide range of administration officials his concerns about Naypyidaws
demands and negotiation strategy in order to buttress his request for
greater US involvement in the process. The symbolic significance of
Obama administration officials receiving a military leader of an armed
ethnic grouping in Washington should not be underestimated; but the
administration seems to understand its possible contribution to the peace
process as dependent upon a request or approval from both the ethnic
groups and the government (Michaels 2014). For its part, the Burmese
government seems content to let the United States talk to the KIO/KIA;
Ambassador Mitchell thus was able to also meet with KIO leaders and
peace negotiators in advance of Obamas 2014 visit to Myanmar (Nyein
Nyein 2014). However, Myanmars presidential spokesperson U Ye Htut
has characterized the governments conflict with non-state armed ethnic
groups as a domestic issue.
66
Jrgen Haacke
most troubling exception and threat to the countrys progress (US State
Department 2013: 1). General goals formulated by US officials for
Rakhine State include achieving lasting peace and stability, rebuilding
trust between the communities, allowing access for humanitarian assistance and offering the Rohingya greater freedom of movement. The
United States also seeks a longer-term solution that will include addressing citizenship issues. But getting the main Burmese political actors to
recognize the Rohingya has proved a major challenge. The government has maintained that the Rohingya are not one of Myanmars
indigenous national races and refers to them as Bengalis, many of
whom, it is suggested, have been crossing into Myanmar illegally for
decades. Even Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, against the backdrop of tens of
thousands trying to make their way from Rakhine State to other parts of
Southeast Asia by boat, has been reluctant to support US exhortations
and has remained relatively silent on the issue, driven apparently by electoral calculations; indeed, when the NLD leader commented on the 1982
citizenship law, which is seen by critics to unfairly deny citizenship to the
Rohingya, she asked only for a review so that it meets international
standards (Pasricha 2012).8
Given allegations that have surfaced concerning a massacre in
Ducheeratan middle village in early 2014 that prompted local protests
directed at the UN and international NGOs, the human rights situation
in Rakhine State has continued to feature strongly in Washingtons bilateral diplomacy. After all, President Obama had referred to the plight of
the Muslim Rohingya during his inaugural trip to Yangon. Though the
Burmese government has picked up some ideas to prevent a renewed
outbreak of mass violence, it has focused on the perceived advantages of
segregation and in the longer term economic development. In the
meantime, the circumstances of self-identifying Rohingya in Rakhine
State remain dire while Rakhine nationalists have confronted UN workers and international NGOs. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel
raised the issues relating to the situation in Rakhine State again during his
visit to Myanmar in April 2014 and the concern expressed was also reinforced by the US ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, when the
UNSC was informally briefed on developments in Rakhine State. Even
President Obama himself, speaking in Malaysia shortly thereafter,
8
In October 2013, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi fell afoul of some media commentators when she rejected flatly that what was happening in Rakhine State amounted to ethnic cleansing and also seemed to explain the use of violence by Buddhists against Muslims with reference to a perception of global Muslim power. See, for instance, Perlez 2014.
67
warned somewhat obliquely that if the rights of Myanmars Muslim population were not protected, Myanmar would not succeed. Not least the
central message about Myanmars responsibility to protect was also repeated before and during Obamas second visit to Myanmar for the 2014
East Asia Summit. In May 2015, in the context of the trafficking and
deaths involved in the boat people crisis, US Deputy Secretary of State
Antony Blinken personally appealed to President U Thein Sein to offer
humanitarian assistance to migrants found adrift at sea many of whom
have claimed to be Rohingya and to address the root causes in Rakhine
State (State Department 2015) that are considered to have prompted
their accelerating exodus by boat.
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Jrgen Haacke
Analysts (e.g. Bnte, forthcoming) have for this and other reasons theorized
Myanmars recent political change as a protracted rather than pacted transition.
69
10
Analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for instance,
have posited that the United States has [only] a narrow window of opportunity to establish a strategic foothold in Myanmar. Increasing military engagement
with Myanmar will give US policymakers a more informed view of the military,
its commander-in-chief and his closest advisers, and who is likely to succeed
them (Hiebert and Phuong Nguyen 2013).
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Jrgen Haacke
For a discussion of past IMET programmes, see Riley and Balaram 2013.
71
has generally favoured increasing pressure on Myanmars military government in the wake of the latters actions against the political opposition even when parts of the executive branch sought policy flexibility. To
account for not only progress achieved in USMyanmar relations since
2009, but also the very limited nature of USMyanmar security interactions to date, it is helpful to briefly explore the more recent politics underlying the making of US Burma policy. In what follows, the article will
initially focus on the shifting balance of influence between Congress and
the Obama administration vis--vis the United States Burma policy. The
remainder of the article aims to show that congressional resistance is
important to understanding why military engagement is such a limited
aspect of the Obama administrations Burma policy.
72
Jrgen Haacke
73
hensive change. As Assistant Secretary Daniel Russel (2013) later put it,
Burma remains important to US interests as a demonstration of the
benefits that can accrue to a nation that pursues a progressive path to
change. Moreover, President Obama has also suggested that the role
the United States has played in initiating Myanmars political transition
highlights successful American leadership in the world.12 While acknowledging that some crucial reforms have not yet been undertaken, support
for continued engagement has remained strong. To be sure, further major improvements in bilateral ties are linked to the regimes preparedness
to move forward with political reforms. As Assistant Secretary of State
for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labour Tom Malinowski, who assumed his post in April 2014, articulated the conditionality,
There is the potential for a deeper partnership, even a full partnership in the future, but we can only move in that direction as the
military moves towards greater civilian control, respect for rule of
law, all of the different issues that we have raised (Malinowski
2014).
As the president (Obama 2014) said, Were now supporting reform and badly
needed national reconciliation through assistance and investment, through
coaxing and, at times, public criticism. And progress there could be reversed,
but if Burma succeeds we will have gained a new partner without having fired a
shot. American leadership.
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Jrgen Haacke
ing a minority within the Senate and the House, these outspoken congressional critics have powerfully paralleled and reinforced the condemnation of Myanmars ruling political-military elite that has been articulated within the Washington beltway. In this regard, beyond the obvious
advocacy groups that have castigated in particular the Tatmadaws continued influence and actions, mainstream nonpartisan think tanks, too,
have arrived at very mixed conclusions concerning Myanmars reforms
in advance of the 2015 elections (Morrison et al. 2014).
The administration, despite being in command of US Burma policy,
has duly noted congressional and wider civil society concerns and responded to these by accommodating opposing policy preferences. Relevant illustrations include the administrations compromise that allowed
responsible new investment and the decision to apply sanctions against
specially designated persons seen as hindering Myanmars reform process.
Nevertheless, the Obama administration stands accused of surrendering
too early the significant leverage it enjoyed over the Thein Sein government by deciding in 2012 to ease most of the many sanctions imposed
over the years to extract concessions from the previous military regime
(Drennan 2014). Particularly unpalatable to Congress, however, has been
the possibility that the administration might pursue military engagement
that would allow the Tatmadaw to benefit whilst remaining unreformed,
despite the risk of greater abuses being committed against the ethnic
populations. It is on this issue that congressional opinion has to date
perhaps most clearly prevailed over that of the administration.
13
The Burma Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2013 allows for basic training on human rights and disaster relief.
75
and disaster relief would be permissible, but neither was to enhance the
Tatmadaws capabilities against ethnic minorities. A substantively identical bill in the context of the Burma Human Rights and Democracy Act
2014 (H.Res. 3889; 15 January 2014) was introduced soon thereafter in
the House by Representative Joseph Crowley, a long-time critical voice
on Burma, and Representative Steve Chabot, the chairman of the House
Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific at the time; subsequently, a revised version (H.Res. 4377; 2 April 2014) further clarifying the extent of
the security assistance to be denied (military assistance, military education and training, and peacekeeping as per Part II of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961) was also referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. None of this draft legislation was enacted.
Nevertheless, the view held by Congress has prevailed. The State,
Foreign Operations, and Related Programmes Appropriations Act for
2015 stipulated that none of the funds appropriated under IMET and
FMF may be made available to Myanmar, and State Department funds
would be focused instead on Washingtons democracy and human-rights
strategy. Also, the Carl Levin and Howard P. Buck McKeon National
Defence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015 further prescribes and
delimits the scope of what the DOD can do in or with Myanmar. Essentially, engagement is limited to consultation, education and training in
relation to human rights, the laws of armed conflict, civilian control of
the military, the English language and disaster relief. The legislation only
allows the DOD to organize courses and workshops on defenceinstitution reform, to grant observer status to bilateral or multilateral
humanitarian assistance and disaster-relief exercises and to offer related
support. In short, Congress for now does not appear to be allowing the
administration to use DOD funding to do much, if anything, that has
not been done already. The legislation also comes with specific reporting
requirements to multiple congressional committees, touching not only
on the future development of military-to-military cooperation, but also
on how such engagement, for instance, supports US national security
strategy and promotes Myanmars reforms. Not surprisingly, this legislation has led some to maintain (Lohman 2014) that Congress has retaken
the drivers seat on Burma policy.
That it has come to this is not a surprise. The Tatmadaws historical
record on human rights and freedoms has been most problematic, and
the fighting in Kachin State entered a new phase in late 2014. Many
members of Congress continue to revile the Burmese military. Put differently, the pragmatism of the Obama administration seems to jar with
the principled position still held by members of the legislature. Inform-
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Jrgen Haacke
ing the political struggle over Myanmar is also a sense of frustration vis-vis the administration. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, for
instance, had become increasingly concerned about the administrations
long-standing failure to spell out its objectives in relation to the Tatmadaw. In addition, members of Congress noted that in November 2014,
Aung San Suu Kyi pointedly asked President Obama not to broaden
military engagement (Pennington 2014). In the absence of the major
reforms members of Congress have wanted to see implemented, the idea
of military engagement has had its wings clipped. Incoming PACOM
commander Harry Harris, who has supported Ambassador Mitchells
approach of limited and calibrated engagement, has thus argued that the
time is not right to expand or elevate military-to-military activities (Harris 2014).
This should not obscure the interest that continues to exist in some
quarters as regards greater US military engagement in the future. It is
likely that American officials and policymakers will re-evaluate their
position on the matter following Myanmars parliamentary elections
currently scheduled for November 2015 and the formation of a new
government. Yet a number of preconditions will in all probability need
to be met for deeper and sustained military engagement to happen, including free and fair elections, public endorsement from Aung San Suu
Kyi, and a comprehensive ceasefire between the Tatmadaw and ethnic
armed organisations.
Conclusion
This paper has examined changes in relations between the United States
and Myanmar primarily from the angle of US policymaking towards
Burma. The Obama administrations first term saw a major remoulding of Americas ties with Naypyidaw. Breaking with the fixation of previous administrations on bringing about regime change, the Obama
administration has backed Myanmars top-down reform project. As this
article has demonstrated, the administration has sought and arguably also
secured a major role for itself in Myanmars socio-economic and political
transition, which has translated into an expanding US presence in the
country. That said, US bilateral military engagement has not extended
beyond symbolic gestures and visits, initial low-level training related to
political reforms, and an emerging high-level dialogue with the Tatmadaw leadership. Crucially, thus, while the United States and Myanmar are
no longer antagonists, they also fall short of being veritable security
partners for the time being.
77
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