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CIAReviewofHighValueTargetAssassinationPrograms

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(http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2014/12/18/ciaanalysishigh
valuetargetinghadlimitedeffectagainsttaliban/)

CIAreportwarnedassassination
programmemightbackfire
Pressrelease
WikiLeakstoday,Thursday18December,publishesareview(/ciahvt
counterinsurgency/)bytheCentralIntelligenceAgency(CIA)ofits"HighValueTarget"
(HVT)assassinationprogramme.Thereportweighstheprosandconsofkilling
"insurgent"leadersinassassinationplots.Afterthereportwasprepared,USdrone
strikekillingsrosetoanalltimehigh.
Thereportdiscussesassassinationoperations(byvariousstates)againsttheTaliban,al
Qa'ida,theFARC,Hizbullah,thePLO,HAMAS,Peru'sShiningPath,theTamil'sLTTE,
theIRAandAlgeria'sFLN.CasestudiesaredrawnfromChechnya,Libya,Pakistanand
Thailand.
TheassessmentwaspreparedbytheCIA'sOfficeofTransnationalIssues(OTI).Itsrole
istoprovidethemostseniorUSpolicymakers,militaryplanners,andlawenforcement
withanalysis,warning,andcrisissupport.Thereportisdated7July2009,sixmonths
intoLeonPanetta'stermasCIAchief,andnotlongafterCIAanalystJohnKiriakoublew
thewhistleonthetortureofCIAdetainees.Kiriakouisstillinprisonforsheddinglight
ontheCIAtortureprogramme.
FollowingthepoliticallyembarrassingexposureoftheCIA'storturepracticesandthe
growingcostofkeepingpeopleindetentionindefinitely,theObamaadministration
facedacrucialchoiceinitscounterinsurgencystrategy:shoulditkill,capture,ordo
somethingelseentirely?

Perceivedbenefitsofassassinating
insurgentleaders
Evidenceforsuccessfulassassinationsisslight.Oneofthefewexamplesclaimedto
havehadpositiveresultsistheassassinationofColombia'sFARCleadersRaulReyes
andIvanRios,whichisthoughttohaveerodedthecoherencyoftheFARC.Similarly,
moraleoftherankandfileofHAMASissaidtohaveweakenedasaresultofthe
assassinationofitsfounderandcofounderSheikAhmedYassinandAbdelAzizal
RantisibyIsraelimissileattacksin2004.TheCIAreportneverthelesspointedoutthat
HAMAS'highlydisciplinednature,socialservicenetworkandreserveofrespected
leadersallowedittoreorganizeafterthekilling..."
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TheCIAclaimedthattheparanoiaitsassassinationprogrammewasgeneratingcould
behelpful:HVToperationstypicallyforcetheremainingleaderstoincreasetheir
securitydiscipline,whichmaycompromisealeader'seffectiveness.HVToperationshad
forcedOsamabinLadentostayinhiding,relyonlowtechcommunicationsandavoid
meetinghissubordinates.TheCIAconsideredthatthishadaffectedhisabilityto
commandhisorganization.BinLadenwasseentobeisolatedandoutofcommand.Bin
Laden'sassassinationinMay2011occurredasPresidentObamapreparedtorunforhis
secondterminoffice.
TheassassinationofLibyanIslamicFightingGroup(LIFG)leaderAbuLaithAlLibiand
hisdeputyinWaziristaninJanuary2008byaUSmissilestrikeinformedthereport's
'benefits'analysis.TheCIAanalystsconsideredthatitresultedinprobablyhindering
thegroup'smergerwithalQa'ida.TheLIFGwasdismantledayearafterthisreport
waswritten.ManyofitstopleaderssubsequentlybecamekeymembersofalQa'ida.
(http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/sep/05/libyanislamicfightinggroupleaders
(http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/sep/05/libyanislamicfightinggroup
leaders))

CIA's'pruning'strategy
ThesecretassessmentalsogoesintowhatitcallsThePruningApproach,where
individualswithintheinsurgencygroupareselectedforkillingsoastoaffectthe
organization.Ratherthankillingseniorcommanders,itissometimesmoreeffectiveto
killindividualswhoareimportanttocorefunctions.ThePruningApproach,CIAanalysts
state,canbeusedtoremoveeffectivemidlevelleaders,protectincompetentleaders
orrestorethemtopositionsofauthority,separateinsurgentpersonalitiesfrompotential
sourcesofgovernmentsponsorship,orprotecthumansourcesthatarecollecting
intelligenceonnetworks.

Talibanegalitarianismtoblamefor
failureofCIAtargetedassassination
programme
Thereportacknowledgesthattheeffectofassassinatinginsurgentgroups'leadersis
sometimeslessenedbyorganizations'commandstructureandsuccessionplanning.This
issaidtobeaproblembothinrelationtoalQa'idainIraqandtotheTaliban.
"TheTalibansmilitarystructureblendsatopdowncommandsystemwithan
egalitarianAfghantribalstructurethatrulesbyconsensus,makingthegroupmoreable
towithstandHVToperations."AlQa'ida'slesscentralizedstructuremeanttheywere
abletoweatherleadershiplossessuchasthedeathofAbuMusabalZarqawi.Hewas
killedbyUSforcesinIraqinJune2006.

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Initskeyfindings,thereportwarnsofthenegativeconsequencesofassassinatingso
calledHighLevelTargets(HLT),apredictionthathasbeenprovenright.Thepotential
negativeeffectofHLToperationsincludeincreasingthelevelofinsurgentsupport[],
strengtheninganarmedgroup'sbondswiththepopulation,radicalizinganinsurgent
group'sremainingleaders,creatingavacuumintowhichmoreradicalgroupscanenter,
andescalatingordeescalatingaconflictinwaysthatfavortheinsurgents.
CapturingHVTsinsteadisnotnecessarilyadesirableoptionfromtheCIA'sperspective.
DrawingontheCIAassistedcaptureofNelsonMandelaandtheANCleader's27year
sentence,whichheservedinanApartheidprison,thereportconcludesthat:"Capturing
leadersmayhavealimitedpsychologicalimpactonagroupifmembersbelievethat
capturedleaderswilleventuallyreturntothegroup[...]orifthoseleadersareableto
maintaintheirinfluencewhileingovernmentcustody,asNelsonMandeladidwhile
incarceratedinSouthAfrica.(S//NF)"
AssassinationsbydronestrikeescalatedtoanalltimehighayearaftertheCIAreport
waswritten.AccordingtofindingsbytheBureauofInvestigativeJournalism,751
peoplewerekilledindronestrikesthatyear,comparedwith471in2009and363in
2011.
DrawingontheexperienceofassassinationprogrammesinThailand,thereportwarns
thatHighValueTargetassassinations"cancapturetheattentionofpolicymakersand
militaryplannerstotheextentthatagovernmentlosesitsstrategicperspectiveonthe
conflictorneglectsotherkeyaspectsofcounterinsurgency".

(http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/wpcontent/uploads/2012/07/AllTotals
Dash54.jpg)
ReadtheWikiLeaksCIAReviewofHighValueTargetAssassinationPrograms(/ciahvt
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