5 7

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Wide-area analysis of runoff water and its effect to roadside slope failure: The case of Typhoon 10
Hokkaido University

Student Member

Hokkaido University

Student Member

Srikrishnan SIVA SUBRAMANIAN

Hokkaido University

International Member

Tatsuya ISHIKAWA

Hokkaido University

International Member

Koichi ISOBE

Hokkaido University

1.

Joel Galupo OPON

Yasuyuki SHIMIZU

Introduction
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal; this is according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) 2014 1) report, which further contended that the evidence of observed climate change impacts is strongest and
most comprehensive for natural systems. In many regions changing precipitation or melting of snow and ice are altering
hydrological systems. Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction o f climate hazards (including
hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems, including their ability
to adapt. In urban areas climate change is projected to increase risks for people, assets, economies and e cosystems,
including risks from storms and extreme precipitation and landslides among those recognized in the same IPCC 2014
report.
Climate change affects the stability of natural and engineered slopes and has consequences on landslides (Gariano
and Guzzetti, 2016) 2) . Landslides are a serious geohazard across the world, resulting in financial losses measured in
hundreds of billions of dollars annually, injuries and fat alities (Martinovic et al. 2016) 3) . One of the areas where
consequences are high is along major transportation networks, where damage to infrastructure causes significant delays,
high replacement/rehabilitation costs and impacts the reputation of the operator (Martinovic et al., 2016) 3) . In a more
related scenario, the series of roadside slope failure along the Nissho Toge National Highway 274 in Hokkaido, which
happened during the occurrence of Typhoon 10 at the end part of August 2016. This has caused closure of the road,
which connects the towns of Shimizu-cho and Hidaka, which is also a major trunk line connecting Hokkaido and
Higashi, including a series of rehabilitation and repair activities. Extreme rainfall observed during the typhoon peaked
at 55mm with a cumulated 488mm overtopping the monthly a verage for Hokkaido according to the Japanese
Meteorological Agency (JMA).
Climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales, complicating the evaluation of
the climate impacts on landslides (Gariano and Guzetti, 2016) 2) . In this paper, we assessed the effect of runoff from
the received rainfall from Typhoon 10 towards the occurrence of the roadside slope failures which manifested along
Nissho Toge Pass, by employing both hydrologic analysis using GIS and two-dimensional (2D) flow analysis using
iRIC software.

2.

Overview of the Disaster

During the occurrence of Typhoon 10 which hit Hokkaido on August 29 -31, 2016, several roadside slope failures

occurred along the National Highway 274, connecting the towns of Hidaka and Shimizu -cho. Along the length of this
highway a combination of debris flow and embankment collapse were observed, particularly on Nikkatsu Pass near 7 th
Joint, at Ishiyama Tunnel, Kumami Tunnel, and Japan-Wins Tunnel (Figure 1). Near Nikkatsu Pass (7 t h Joint), two (2)
embankment collapse were observed (Figure 7a and 7b) damaging up to 100m of the road length.
Wide-area analysis of runoff water and its effect to roadside slope failure: The case of Typhoon 10. Joel Galupo OPON,
Srikrishnan SIVA SUBRAMANIAN, Tatsuya ISHIKAWA, Koichi ISOBE, Yasuyuki SHIMIZU (Hokkaido University)

On the Hidaka side entrance of the Ishiyama Tunnel a combination of debris flow and embankment co llapse were
recorded (Figure 7c). On the Shimizu-cho side entrance of the Kumami Tunnel, debris flow manifested that reached
the road and blocking the entrance to the tunnel, which is mainly composed of earth and sand materials (Figure 7d).
While on the Shimizu-cho side entrance of the Japan-Wins Tunnel, embankment collapse as well as d ebris flow
happened (Figure 7e). The time of occurrence of these roadside slope failures were not explicitly recorded.
The series of roadside slope failures and debris flows had not resulted into any reported casualties. Dahal et al.
(2006) 4) points out that roadside slope failures do not commonly result in major losses of life, because most catastrophic
failures occurred in less populated area, which is particularly the case in these events. However, Dahal et al. (2006) 4)
argued that economic and financial losses are substantial. This is likely because of the road blockage which impedes
goods and services transport, as well as the high cost of repair and rehabilitation processes.

Google Earth

Figure 1 Location of the roadside slope failures

3.

Site Description
Nissho Toge National Highway 274 is situated along the hillside slope as shown in Figure 2, in dark yellow color

and the failure locations indicated by black dots, with an average slope of 20 degrees (Figure 3b). It is located on a
part of a sub-basin which form part of the watershed near Kamikawa town. Figure 3a also shows the delineated
watershed where the slope failure occurred. Generally, the hillside slope onto which the road traverses is a steep terrain.
The areas on these uphill portion form as sub-catchments which could supply runoff water from uphill and down
towards the road network, as evidenced by the presence of stream lines in this watershed . Figure 3a outlined the
drainage network, shown in red lines, for this site based on the digital elevation model (DEM ) with 0.000111 arc degree
resolution (Figure 2), which was sourced from Geospatial Information Authority of Japan.

Figure 2 Terrain profile along Nissho Toge National Highway 274

(a)

(b)

Figure 3 (a) Sub-catchments and drainage network of the site (b) Slope distribution
On the same figure (Figure 3a) sub catchments were also delineated, as shown in blue lines, which demarcated the
sub-areas of the watershed that drains into these streams. It can be noticed that commonly where slope failure occurred,
a major stream line is also present at that location, suggesting that the area is a collection point for water, specially
runoff water when rainfall strikes.

4.

Climatic Condition used in the Simulation

This research was conducted to determine the possible effect of rainfall runoff to the roadside slope fail ure along

the Nissho Toge National Highway 274, Hokkaido during the Typhoon 10, which transpired on August 28 -31, 2016.
Along Nissho Toge Pass, the observed rainfall is as shown in Figure 4 below, measured by the Kaihatsukyokus
telemeter near the area. It can be observed that at this location, the maximum observed rainfall during Typhoon 10 was
55mm, as indicated by the red arrow, which occurred on 0100 at 31 st of August 2016 local time, with a cumulated
rainfall of 488mm for the duration stated.
According to Japan Meteorological Agency, three (3) typhoon have landed in Hokkaido on the month of August
2016, and Typhoon 10 is the fourth typhoon which brought about these slope failures. The wet condition of the soil,
which almost approached saturation due to the several waves of heavy rainfall, likely produce more runoff during the
occurrence of Typhoon 10. In the runoff simulation, both infiltration and evaloptranspiration was neglected because of
the initial wet condition of the soil.

Figure 4 Observed rainfall at the site during Typhoon 10

5.

Simulation Method
The analysis for this research was conducted by a combination of DEM processing using Geographical Information

System (GIS) software, and the use of International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) software, with emphasis on the
Storage Routing Model (SRM) solver for runoff calculation and the Nays2D Flood solver for the two -dimensional flow
unsteady flow calculation.
The terrain analysis was done in the GIS software, which produced basic inp ut data such as elevation, areas of the
delineated watershed, and slope. The hydrologic tools in GIS software were able to produce the drainage network of
the entire watershed area (Figure 3a). These results were the input conditions in iRIC SRM and Nays2D Flood
simulation, which was used in succession.
The runoff analyses were done in Nays2D Flood solver of the iRIC software, which is a flood flow analysis solver
that relies on unsteady 2-dimensional plane flow simulation using boundary-fitted coordinates as the general
curvilinear coordinates (Shimizu, et al., 2014) 5) . The solver limits the user to four (4) input inflow conditions (Figure
5), that is why in this research, separate simulation runs were conducted on each failure locations as a consequ ence of
this limitation. Figure 5 shows the calculation grid used in Location 1 only, together with the roughness defined by the
polygon. In the same figure the inflow is the runoff contribution from the areas of the watershed at the uphill portion
of the upstream of the calculation grid which are determined through SRM solver.

Location 1
1
Roughness

Polygon

Calculation
Grid

Inflows

Legend:
Upstream
Downstream
Roadway

Figure 5 Overlay grid layer for iRIC Nays2d Flood analysis

SRM, which stands for Storage routing model, is a solver integrated into the iRIC software. While it is capable of
solving the runoff, the simulation calculation conditions do not explicitly take into account the degree of saturation
of soil ground, or any soil properties for that matter, such as soil type, permeability, grain size distribution, index
properties, etc., as input condition for runoff simulation. However, as discussed in Section 4 this condition was
attained because of the wet condition of the soil at the site. The solver is dependent on the following equations (SRM
Solver Manual, 2014) 6) .

In equations (1) and (2) the manual defined the variables as: s, the storage (mm); r, is observed rainfall (mm/h);
is the mean rainfall intensity (mm/h); q is the observed runoff (mm/h); b is the loss (mm/h); q 0 is the base flow
(mm/h); q B is initial runoff (mm/h); k 11 and k 12 are storage parameters, k 13 is a loss parameter, p 1 and p 2 are storage
indices; is a damping factor; c 1 , c 2 are c 3 are mode, cl parameters (Runoff Calculation SRM Solver manual, 2014) 6) .
Whereas A in equation (2) is the area of the catchment in km 2 , and t in equation (1) is the time (s), in the calculation
conditions, and q B is initially set to zero. On the other hand, the Nays2D Flood solver is dependent of the following
basic flow equations (Nays2D Flood Solver Manual, 2014) 5) :
Equation of continuity:
(3)
Equations of motion:
(4)

(5)
where:
(6)

(7)

(8)
In the above equations, h is the water depth (m), t is the time (s), u is flow velocity in the x-direction (m/s), v is
the flow velocity in the y-direction (m/s), g is the gravitational acceleration (equal to 9.81m/s 2 ), H is the water
surface elevation (m), x is the riverbed shear stress in the x-direction (kPa), y is the riverbed shear stress in the ydirection (kPa), C f is riverbed friction coefficient, v t is eddy viscosity coefficient, is the density of water (kN/m 3 ),
q is inflow through a box culvert (m 3 /s), a sluice pipe or a pump per unit area and r is rainfall (mm/h). In this
simulation q is set to zero and Table 1 below lists the used parameters in both the SRM and Nays2D Flood analysis.
Some of these parameters were selected since they are average for the entire Hokkaido (c 1 , c 2 , c 3, , p 1 , p 2 ), and the
roughness, C f , is a referred value.
Table 1 SRM and Nays2D Flood Parameters
Parameter

Value

c1

12.501

c2

0.134

c3

1.752

0.019

p1

0.60

p2

0.4648

Cf

0.15

6.

Discussion
Figure 6 shows the simulation result in terms of the velocity and water depth at exploratory points in each failure

locations as indicated by a red star in Figure 7. The ground surface elevation as well as the water surface elevation and
maximum velocity profiles for a particular segment at each failure locations are also shown in Figure 7. The distance
between points as shown in Figure 7 is dependent on the calculation grid cell size (Figure 5), which is also dependent
on factors such as size of the catchment, size of the calculation grid, calculation time step, and convergence. Thus, in
each failure locations considered, the distance between these points vary because of the uniq ueness of the conditions
that exist in each site, and ultimately they are chosen for calculation convergence. From the different locations, the
exploratory points were selected as the point where the failure happened, and it can be observed that for the fi ve
locations considered in this study, the trend is unique at each different site. This is likely because different set of
conditions is also unique at each site, such as the type of terrain, the size of catchment, the distribution of slope, and
the behavior of the drainage network. In the following figures it can be seen that the increases in both velocity and
depth at the exploratory points is due to the received rainfall. The trend of velocity and depth is almost identical at
each failure locations that differ only in terms of magnitude.
6.1 Runoff velocity and water depth at exploratory points
The rapid increases in velocity in all exploratory points at each failure locations (Figure 6), with particular
emphasis on Locations 1, 3 and 5, after the onset of rainfall, is due to the fact that these locations are also located
where a major stream is situated (Figure 3a). This consequently implied that the area is a collection point for runoff
water, which only adds to the dynamicity of the behavior of the ma gnitude of velocity and depth at each points, since
most of the runoff water converges at these points from several locations . While the trends for both velocity and depth
shows reactivity with the amount of rainfall, the correlation between them is vaguel y observable on the graph, which
can be explained by the shallowness of the stream where a clear stream cross section could not be properly defined
using the resolution of the DEM. The unique behavior of the streamlines at each failure site is suspected to be one of
the potential reasons that resulted to this behavior.
Referring to Figure 7, the magnitudes of maximum water depth and maximum velocity at the exploratory Locations
1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, are 0.3495m, 0.1180m, 0.8631m, 0.0321m, 0.4775m, and 1.6267m/s, 0.9148m/s, 3.4920m/s, 0.4039m/s,
and 2.4711m/s, respectively. The high magnitudes of water depths at each exploratory points during the Typhoon 10
event ranging up to 0.8631m at Location 3, where both embankment collapse and debris flow occurred, is indicative
that the areas become the collection points of runoff water. These water depths have the potential to detached erodible
exposed surface sediments, since infiltration is very minimal due to the wet soil condition.
The high value of runoff velocity at the exploratory points suggests the high potential for erosion. Increased
rainfall intensity may increase surface runoff and the related surface erosion processes, which in turn may facilitate
debris flow initiation and enlargement as cited by Ga riano and Guzzetti (2016) 2) from the works of Hungr et al. (2005) 7)
and Iverson et al. (2011) 8) . The maximum velocity combined with the water depth could carry debris larger than sand
and erode exposed surfaces. The instantaneous velocity continues to gain magnitude with the increasing amount of
rainfall and subsided at the end portion of the Typhoon in all sites. However, in locations 1, 3, and 5 (Figure 6b), it
remained high even at the end of the storm, which is probably caused by the size of the catchment area and the shape
of the catchment (Figure 3a) that supplied runoff at this locations, which makes runoff water take longer time to
diminish. Table 2 shows the area of the catchments supplying runoff to the failure locations. Close inspection of the
table reveals that Location 3 has the largest catchment area which explains why runoff depth and velocity is high at
this location. Location 1 also showed the same trend being the second largest catchment area among the locations,
while Location 5, the behavior of velocity and depth at this location is most likely affected by the shape of the
catchment which is more elongated (Figure 3a), which might have allowed runoff to subside at a longer time.

Table 2 The size of catchment areas for each failure l ocations

Location

Catchment Area, km 2

0.2083

0.1032

0.2806

0.0818

0.0995

The concentration of runoff at the locations may have resulted into these roadside failure events. Montgome ry
(1994) 9) explained that concentration of road drainage could have various geomorphic effects namely: (1) increased
discharge may have no identifiable geomorphic impact; (2) the discharge increase may be sufficient to initiate or
enlarge a channel; or (3) the concentration of drainage may contribute to slope instability below the d rainage outfall.
In Figure 7, which shows the type of slope failure at each site considered, the prevalent rainfall related disaster is
mostly debris flow where observable earth and sand flowed down to the road surface, as well as embankment collapse,
where an observable channel enlargement due to the concentration of runoff at these sites is likely the cause of the
initiation of failures. Many factors influence the specific timing and loca tion of erosion, including the intensity and
duration of rainfall and temporal variations in the contribution of vegetation and soil strength (Montgomery, 1994) 9) .

(a)

(b)
Figure 6 The behavior of (a) Depth and (2) magnitude of velocity at each locations

In these failure sites, it is recognizable that rainfall event is not the only major contributor to the increased runoff
concentration at the exploratory points, it is a combination of the following conditions: (1) initial state set by the
previous intense rainfall that the catchment received from the previous typhoons which made the soil almost in
saturated

condition that ultimately affected the infiltration, thus

increasing the runoff

volume;

(2) the drainage

network suggests that the site where the failure occurred is a collection point of runoff water; (3) the topography of
the site, where the average slope of the uphill portion of the road is 20 degrees that rather contributed to the increase
in velocity, particularly at Location 3, where a velocity magnitude of 3.4920m/s resulted in the simulation.
In the study of Ran et al. (2012) 10) , they found out that under laboratory setting, the mechanism related to runoff
erosion could be transport-limited or detachment-limited, and further found out that runoff played an important role in
erosion generally both for steep and flatter slopes. The drainage network further escalates the runoff generation at the
considered sites since major streamlines are situated in these locations. Where there is a drainage out let, the destructive
power of the concentrated flow is much greater than rain (Liu et al., 2016) 11) .

Obihiro Development Construction Department

J21

(a)

13.1881m

J15

Obihiro Development Construction Department

(b)
Figure 7 Exploratory segments and points at the failure locations showing the terrain profile, maximum
water depth, and maximum velocity (a) Location 1 (b) Location 2 (c) Location 3 (d) Location 4
(e) Location 5

J13

Obihiro Development Construction Department

(c)

15.7219m

J18

Google Earth

Obihiro Development Construction Department

(d)

J9

Obihiro Development Construction Department

(e)
Figure 7 (continued)

7.

Conclusion
The runoff simulation for each site suggested that the concentration of runoff at each location is a common scenario,

where high water surface runoff depth alongside with the high velocity is observed. The likely combination of
topography, slope, drainage network, and the initial wet state of soil at the site has exacerbated the amount of runoff.
The drainage concentration magnified the effect of rainfall (Liu et al., 2016) 11) , which could lead to surface erosion
and channel enlargement (Montgomery, 1994) 9) . The runoff generation and concentration at the failure locations
therefore have contributed to the debris flows and ultimately embankment collapse.
8.

Acknowledgments
We gratefully acknowledge creators of the International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) software, the Geospatial

Information Authority of Japan, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), Obihiro Development Construction
Department, Muroran Development Construction Department, for providing the bulk information used in this research.
This research was supported in part by Grant-in-Aid for challenging Exploratory Research (16H02360) from Japan
Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI.
9. References
1)

Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers (2014), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf [January 9, 2017]

2)

Gariano, S.L., and Guzzetti, F.: Landslides in changing climate, Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 162, pp. 227-252,
2016.

3)

Martinovic, K., Gaven, K., and Reale, C.: Development of landslide susceptibility assessment for a rail network,
Engineering Geology, Vol. 215, pp. 1-9, 2016.

4)

Dahal, R.K., Hasegawa, S., Masuda, T., and Yamanaka, M.: Ro adside slope failures in Nepal during torrential
rainfall and their mitigation, Disaster Mitigation of Debris Flows, Slope Failures and Landslides, pp. 503 -514.

5)

Shimizu, Y., Inoue, T., Suzuki, E., Kawamura, S., Iwasaki, T., Hamaki, M., Omura, K., Kakegawa, E., Yoshida, T.:
Nays2D Flood Solver Manual, 2014.

6)

Runoff Calculation SRM Solver Manual, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC), 2014.

7)

Hungr, O., McDougall, S., and Bovis, M.: Entrainment of material by debris flows, Debris flow Hazards and
Related Phenomena, Springer, pp. 135-158, 2005

8)

Iverson, R.M., Reid, M.E., Logan, M., LaHusen, R.G., Godt, J.W., and Griswold, J.P., Positive feedback and
momentum growth during debris-flow entrainment of wet bed sediment, Nat. Geosci, 4(2) , pp. 116-121, 2011.

9)

Montgomery, D.R.: Road surface drainage, channel initiation, and slope instability, Water resources Research, Vol.
30, No. 6, pp. 1925-1932, 1994.

10)

Ran, Q., Su, D., Li, P., He, Z.: Experimental study of the impact of rainfall characteristics on runoff generation
and soil erosion, Journal of Hydrology, 424-425, pp. 99-111, 2012.

11)

Liu, Y.J., Hu, J.M., Wang, T.W., Cai, C.F., Li, Z.X., and Zhang, Y.: Effects of vegetation cover and roadconcentrated flow on hillslope erosion in rainfall and scouring simulation tests in the Three Gorges Reservoir
Area, China, Catena, 136, pp. 108-117.