|

002103.SZ

-A
N.A
19.51
2016 08 28

MRQ
ROETTM

3070
45768
26256
89
51
3.5
6.0
23.0%

22.13%

(%)

(%)

1m
-1
-2

6m
-12
-24

12m
19
10
300

80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Aug/15

Feb/16

May/16

6.92 24.43%
3848.47 55.08% 0.08 1-9
10%~60%

1
100%

167.96% 6.79%

4.63 pct
21.25%
2

kinbor
51%

1002103

2016-07-27
2002103

2016-03-29
3002103

2016-02-21

021-68407559
zhengkai1@cmschina.com.cn
S1090514040003

lihongpeng@cmschina.com.cn
S1090515090001

021-68407410
liyan15@cmschina.com.cn

3-A
14
15 16

2016-2018 EPS 0.310.350.38 -A

Uber

2014

2015

2016E

2017E

2018E

907
7%
(5)
-138%
9
-45%
0.04
458.8
5.8

1457
61%
93
-1976%
82
787%
0.27
72.3
3.7

2027
39%
180
94%
141
72%
0.31
63.2
5.2

2306
14%
203
13%
158
12%
0.35
56.4
4.9

2559
11%
224
10%
174
10%
0.38
51.3
4.6

()

()

()

()
PE
PB

1
15Q2
15Q3

367
426

76
89

28
32

23
21

0
-5

5
0

25
31

21
29

0.05
0.06
EPS

YoY

15Q4
475
95
31
29
-2
0
33
29
0.06

16Q1
302
62
27
21
0
0
16
12
0.03

16Q2
390
85
36
28
-3
0
20
26
0.06

20.7%
7.6%
6.3%
6.8%
15.4%
5.7%

20.9%
7.5%
4.9%
7.3%
9.4%
6.8%

20.0%
6.5%
6.1%
6.9%
18.9%
6.1%

20.5%
8.9%
7.0%
5.3%
18.8%
4.0%

21.8%
9.2%
7.2%
5.1%
3.7%
6.7%

61%
373%

71%
616%

85%
7993%

59%
256%

6%
23%

Wind

2 PE 2016 55X
EPS

2016/8/26
15
16E

14.63
56.65
18.82
24.00
17.20
20.00

0.52
0.30
0.01
0.19
0.15
0.36

0.66
1.08
0.31
0.32
0.22
0.48

17E

15

PE
16E

17E

PB
(MRQ)

ROE
(TTM)

0.80
1.66
0.51
0.43
0.32
0.63

28.1
188.8
1882.0
126.3
114.7
55.6
399.3

22.2
52.5
60.7
75.0
78.2
41.7
55.1

18.3
34.1
36.9
55.8
53.8
31.7
38.4

12.0
5.8
14.7
14.5
4.6
11.0
10.4

26.4
3.8
-19.3
9.0
3.1
16.6
6.6

Wind

100%
60%

20%

40%

15%

wind

2Q16

1Q16

4Q15

-5%

3Q15

0%
2Q15

-40%

1Q15

5%

4Q14

-20%

3Q14

10%

2Q14

2Q16

1Q16

4Q15

3Q15

2Q15

1Q15

4Q14

3Q14

2Q14

1Q14

4Q13

3Q13

2Q13

1Q13

0%

1Q14

20%

25%

2Q13

80%

1Q13

50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0

4Q13

3Q13

wind

Page 2

3 PE Band

4 PB Band

()

()

35

165x

30

140x

25
110x

20
15
10

50

14.1x

40

11.7x

85x

30

55x

20

9.3x
6.8x
4.4x

10

5
0
Aug/13

60

Feb/14

Aug/14

Feb/15

Aug/15

Feb/16

0
Aug/13

Feb/14

Aug/14

Feb/15

Aug/15

Feb/16

10021032016-07-27
20021032016-03-29
30021032016-02-21

Page 3

2014
678
157
0
1
157
47
183
133
492
0
316
101
75
1170
418
0
117
16
285
3
0
3
421
218
224
297
10
740
1170

2015
858
209
0
1
314
34
229
71
1291
30
299
93
869
2149
516
230
151
28
107
6
0
6
522
305
958
357
7
1620
2149

2016E
1037
185
0
1
411
47
296
97
1267
30
284
83
869
2304
573
216
202
37
118
6
0
6
579
458
806
453
8
1716
2304

2017E
1146
176
0
1
468
54
337
110
1244
30
271
75
868
2391
543
145
231
43
125
6
0
6
549
458
806
569
10
1832
2391

2018E
1273
195
0
2
519
59
376
123
1225
30
259
67
868
2498
523
88
257
47
131
6
0
6
529
458
806
695
11
1958
2498

2014
2015

1
(17)

9
82

43
40

5
5

(7)
(7)

(50)
(138)

(0)
(0)

(115)
(122)

(35)
(29)

(80)
(93)

(21)
195

(4)
(620)

0
87

(2)
734

(11)
(22)

(5)
17

(136)
57

2016E
62
141
45
12
(6)
(139)
9
(20)
(20)
0
(66)
(14)
153
(153)
(46)
(5)
(23)

2017E
126
158
42
9
(6)
(83)
6
(20)
(20)
0
(116)
(71)
0
0
(42)
(3)
(10)

2018E
143
174
40
6
(6)
(76)
5
(20)
(20)
0
(104)
(57)
0
0
(48)
1
19

EPS

2014
907
731
5
91
76
6
5
(5)
7
(5)
24
3
16
6
10
0
9
0.04

2015
1457
1159
6
114
87
(7)
10
(0)
7
93
9
1
100
17
83
1
82
0.27

2016E
2027
1551
9
159
122
12
0
(0)
7
180
9
1
188
45
142
1
141
0.31

2017E
2306
1770
10
181
138
9
0
(0)
7
203
9
1
211
51
160
1
158
0.35

2018E
2559
1970
11
201
154
6
0
(0)
7
224
9
1
232
56
175
1
174
0.38

2014

2015

2016E

2017E

2018E

7%
61%
-138% -1976%
-45%
787%

39%
94%
72%

14%
13%
12%

11%
10%
10%

ROE
ROIC

PE
PB
EV/EBITDA

19.4%
1.0%
1.3%
0.0%

20.4%
5.7%
5.1%
3.8%

23.5%
7.0%
8.2%
7.4%

23.2%
6.9%
8.6%
8.0%

23.0%
6.8%
8.9%
8.4%

36.0%
17.1%
1.6
1.2

24.3%
10.7%
1.7
1.2

25.2%
9.4%
1.8
1.3

23.0%
6.1%
2.1
1.5

21.2%
3.5%
2.4
1.7

0.8
4.1
6.6
6.4

0.7
5.6
6.2
8.6

0.9
5.9
5.6
8.8

1.0
5.6
5.2
8.2

1.0
5.5
5.2
8.1

0.04
0.00
3.39
0.10

0.27
-0.06
5.31
0.15

0.31
0.14
3.75
0.09

0.35
0.28
4.00
0.10

0.38
0.31
4.28
0.11

458.8
5.8
52.1

72.3
3.7
16.5

63.2
5.2
8.5

56.4
4.9
7.9

51.3
4.6
7.5

Page 4

8
2015

09 2015

5 2015

6 300
20%
5-20%

5%

5%

A
B
C

6 300

Page 5