Forecasting and Analysis of the Potential Renewable

Resources for Ecuadors Power Sector (2012-2032)

Presented by:
Teuku Faisal (11078965)

Supervisors:
Prof. Dr. Johannes Hamhaber
Prof. Dr. Alfredo Mena

In cooperation with:

October 2012
 Outlines
Sections: Sub-Sections:
Objectives
1 Introduction Basic Concepts
Methodology
Forecasting Framework & LEAP
Ecuador Country Profile
2 Ecuador as Case Study Stakeholders
Electricity Organigram
The Pachamama Law
3 Energy Policy ITT Yasuni Initiative
Subsidy Policy
Feed-in Tariffs
Ecuador Energy Profile
4 Energy Profile Primary Energy Resources
Energy Transportation & Transformation
Electricity Generation
Sankey Diagram
5 Modeling, Result and Analysis Modeling & Simulation
Stakeholders Energy Blue-print
Energy Analysis (REF & DSM Scenarios)
Electricity Analysis (REF & DSM Scenario)
Conclusion
6 Closing Recommendation
Limitations
Future Research
References

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Objectives

To analyze the potentials of renewable energy

resources in Ecuador and to project scenarios of
this country in utilizing those resources, for
supplying the growing demand of electricity

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Basic Concepts

Forecasting vs. Backcasting

Supply Side vs. Demand Side

Forecasting based on Demand Side:

2012 2032

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Methodology

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Forecasting Framework & LEAP

Sophisticated (econometric)
Hybrid operations (accounting
frameworks and simulation model)

Main purposes:
Energy Outlooks;
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP);
GHG mitigation analysis; and
Energy balance and environmental
inventories

Included: Technology and Environment

database (TED)
Source: USEPA (2008) Source: SEI (2002)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Ecuador Country Profile

Year Population GDP Nominal

(Million) (Billion USD)
2010 14,20 57,98
2011 15,00 66,38
2012 15,22 72,47
2013 15,45 78,42
2014 15,68 83,45
2015 15,91 88,51
2016 16,14 93,56
Source: UN (2012) Source: INEC (2010); IMF (2012)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Stakeholders

Ministry of Non- Ministry of Electricity

Renewable Natural and Renewable
Resources (MRNNR) Energy (MEER)
PetroEcuador CONELEC
Private Companies CENACE
(Agip; Sipetrol; CELEC & IPP
Repsol YPF; Andes CNEL & Other
Petroleum; etc.) Distributors

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Electricity Organigram

Source: CONELEC (2009)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Energy Policy
Pachamama Law ITT Yasuni Initiative
Source: YBC (2012)

Proven Reserve of Crude Oil: 864 MMbbl

Compensation:
50% of net revenue
(Total USD 3,6 Billion, over 13 year)
Allocation:
RE, reforestation, education, local development, etc.
Source: Brontobeats (2012)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Subsidy Policies
Fuel Subsidy: Electricity Subsidy:

LPG 15 kg Refill:
1,60 USD

1 US Gallon = 3,785 Liters

Source: Faisal (2012)

Fuel Subsidy 2011: USD 2.949.875.490,00

(4,5 % of GDP Nominal)
Source: CONELEC (2010)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Feed-in Tariffs
HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS Price
(Cent USD/kWh)
Until 10 MW 7,17
Above 10 MW until 30 MW 6,88
Above 30 MW until 50 MW 6,21

OTHER RENEWABLE Continental Territory Galapagos Islands Territory

PLANTS (Cent USD/kWh) (Cent USD/kWh)
Wind Energy 9,13 10,04
Photovoltaic 40,03 44,03
Solar Thermal 31,02 34,12
Wave and Tidal Energy 44,77 49,25
Biomass & Biogass < 5 11,05 12,16
MW
Biomass & Biogaas > 5 9,60 10,56
MW
Geothermal 13,21 14,53
Source: CONELEC (2011)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Ecuador Energy Profile (2009)
RESOURCES & CAPACITY Amount Unit
Oil Reserves 6.333* MMbbl
Natural Gas Reserves 282 BCF
Coal Reserves 22 MMT
Refining Capacity 176 kbd
Installed Electricity Capacity 5.488,71 MW
*) included the 864 MMbbl from ITT Yasuni Field

SECTOR CONSUMPTIONS Amount Unit

Transportation 45.206,84 kBOE
Industry 11.612,70 kBOE
Residential, Commercial and Services 15.676,74 kBOE
Farming, Fishing, Mining and Others 3.235,55 kBOE
Final Consumption all Sector 75.731,73 kBOE

DESCRIPTION Amount Unit

Electricity Consumption per capita 970,16 kWh per capita
Total Electrification 90,4 %
Rural Electrification 85,7 %
Source: OLADE (2012); CONELEC (2011); PetroEcuador (2012); OGJ (2012)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Primary Resources
Crude Oil 2009 Hydroelectricity 2009:
Produced: 177.414 Mbbl 2.058,97 MW
Exported: 119.557 Mbbl

Source: BCE (2012)

Source: Faisal (2012)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Pipelines for Crude Oil Transport
Source: PetroEcuador (2012)

Refineries &
Oil Derivatives Storage Stations
Source: PetroEcuador (2012)

REFINERIES (2009) Charging Crude Received

Capacity in Refinery
(kbd) (Mbbl)
Refinera de 110 33.990,00
Esmeraldas
Refinera La Libertad 46 15.679,00
Refinera Amazonas 20 7.046,00
Plant & Pipelines 1.089,00
Consumption
TOTAL 176 57.805,00
Source: PetroEcuador (2012)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Installed Capacity &
Gross Electricity Generated (2009)
Nominal Capacity Effective Capacity Gross Electricity
Energy Resources Power Plant
(MW) % (MW) % (GWh) %
Renewable Hydroelectricity 2.058,97 37,51 2.031,98 40,23 9.222,44 47,36
Wind 2,40 0,04 2,40 0,05 3,20 0,02
Solar 0,02 0,00 0,02 0,00 0,01 0,00
Bagasse 106,80 1,95 94,50 1,87 216,52 1,11
Total 2.168,19 39,50 2.128,90 42,15 9.442,18 48,49
Non Renewable Thermal ICE 1.280,58 23,33 966,22 19,13 3.809,70 19,56
Thermal Steam Turbine 446,00 8,13 443,00 8,77 2.792,67 14,34
Thermal Gas Turbine 943,94 17,20 877,20 17,37 2.307,98 11,85
Total 2.670,51 48,65 2.286,42 45,27 8.910,36 45,76
Interconnection Interconnection 650,00 11,84 635,00 12,57 1.120,43 5,75
Total 650,00 11,84 635,00 12,57 1.120,43 5,75
Total General 5.488,71 100,00 5.050,32 100,00 19.472,96 100,00
Source: CONELEC (2010)

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Modeling, Result, & Analysis

Ecuador Energy Flow 2009

Source: Faisal (2012); Data Resources: PetroEcuador/CONELEC/OLADE

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Ecuador Energy System Modeling (LEAP)
Diagram of Ecuador Energy System:

Electricity Generation:

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Energy Blue-print
Primary Resources
(2006 2020) Electricity Generation
(2012 2021)

Source: MEER (2008)

Source: MEER (2012)

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 REF and DSM Scenario
REF Reference Scenario (REF):
Based on the historical data (energy, population, GDP, economy,
industry, etc.) until 2012;
Future planned and committed programs of the stakeholders;
Forecasted based on the demand growth and the availability of
resources.

DSM Demand Side Management Scenario (DSM), inherits all characters

from REF, plus:
Energy intensity decreasing;
Electricity load factor improvement;
Reduction of losses in the T&D system (oil derivative products
and electricity sector); and
More diversities and expansion of RE in the supply sides.

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Final Energy Demand
REF vs. DSM

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 Energy Demand by Sectors
REF DSM

Energy Demand by Fuel Type

REF DSM

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Fossil Fuel Depletion REF

Primary Resources REF

Crude Oil Proven Reserve

(excl. ITT Yasuni):
2009 = 5.469 MMbbl
2032 = 1.601 MMbbl (29,3%)
ITT Yasuni Field: 864 MMbbl

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Secondary Energy REF

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Electricity Demand (2012-2032)

REF DSM

REF DSM

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Electricity Demand (2012-2032)
REF vs. DSM

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Electricity Installed Capacity (2012-2032)
REF = DSM

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 Electricity Generation (2012-2032)

REF
DSM

REF
DSM

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Electricity Generation in 2021
MEER vs. REF vs. DSM

MEER 2021 : 31.144,9 GWh

REF Scenario 2021 : 32.598,4 GWh
DSM Scenario 2021 : 30.028,5 GWh

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Conclusions
Crude Oil is increasing in percentage and in quantity as Primary Energy
Resources in 2032.
While Hydro, Bagasse, and Wood accounts for a quarter of Primary
Energy Resources, contributing mainly for electricity generation,
Geothermal, Solar Power, Wind Energy remain less developed.
In case no more exploration, NG is expected to be totally depleted
around 2020, crude oil remains 29,3% in 2032
Ecuador has a strong base for RE development (Pachamama law and FiT
regulation)
Just in the electricity sector, hydroelectricity is expected to contribute
for 88,8 % of electricity supply in 2032, followed by 5,9 % from
Geothermal, and 3,4 % from Bagasse Power Plants. The total electricity
supply is 48,7 Thousand GWh, more than double if it is compared to
21,7 GWh in 2012

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Recommendations
Remove the fuel subsidy and keep the current FiT for RE
Electrification to all sectors, especially into Transport Sector

Source: Faisal (2012)

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 Limitations & Challenges
Data collections
Data lagged behind for several years
Some uncertainties exist
Language

Future Research
Sensibility Analysis
Mores future scenarios
GHG Emission Calculation for each scenario
Energy security, energy diversity
Model Optimization
Maintaining, updating, and fixing all systems parameter regularly.

Introduction Ecuador Energy Policy Energy Profile Modeling, Result, & Analysis Closing
 References
Banco Central del Ecuador, BCE. (2008). Ecuador: Evolucion de la Balanza Comercial (January February 2008). Retrieved August 20,
2012, from: http://www.bce.fin.ec/
Brontobeats. (2012). Los 7 mejores etno-hits pachamama lser. Retrieved October 19, 2012, from: http://www.brontobeats.com/
Centro Nacional de Control de Energa, CENACE. (2012 a). Plan Maestro de Electrificacin del Ecuador 2011-2020. Captulo 5 - Expansin
de la Generacin. (Institutional Publication).
Consejo Nacional de Electricidad, CONELEC. (2010). Estadstica del Sector Elctrico Ecuatoriano. Resumen del ao 2009. (Institutional
Report).
Consejo Nacional de Electricidad, CONELEC. (2011). Regulacin No. CONELEC 004/11. (Feed in Tariff Regulation).
International Monetary Fund, IMF. (2012, April). World Economic Outlook Database, September 2012. Retrieved September 19, 2012,
from: http://www.imf.org/
Evolve to Ecology. (2011). San Rafael Waterfall Threatened due to Chinese Hydrodam Project. Retrieved October 19, 2012, from:
http://www.evolvetoecology.com/
Instituto Nacional de Estadstica y Censos, INEC.(2010 a). Censo de 2010. (Institutional Report). Retrieved August 28, 2012, from:
http://inec.gob.ec/
Latin American Energy Organization, OLADE. (2012). Summary of Ecuador Energy Profile. (Institutional Publication).
Ministerio de Electricidad y Energa Renovable de Ecuador, MEER. (2008 b). Polticas Energticas del Ecuador 2008-2020. (Institutional
Report).
Ministro de Coordinacin de los Sectores Estratgicos, MICSE.(2012, January). Catlogo de Inversin para Proyectos Estratgicos.
(Institutional Publication).
PetroEcuador (2012). Informe Estadstico 2009. Coordinacin General de Planificacin y Control de Programas. (Institutional
Publication).
United Nations, Cartographic Section (2012). Map of Ecuador. Retrieved September 14, 2012, from:
http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/ecuador.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, USEPA. (2008, June). State Energy Forecasting. An Overview of Methods. State Clean Energy-
Environment Technical Forum. (Presentation Document).
Yasun Biodiversity Center, YBC. (2012). Parque nacional Yasun. Retrieved October 19, 2012, from:
http://www.amazoniaporlavida.org/es/Parque-nacional-Yasuni/
Source: Evolve to Ecology (2011)