ESTIMATION

Interval Estimation:

Single Sample : Estimating the Mean, .

Large Sample Confidence Interval for a Population Mean

x z
, when n 30 and is known. If is not known, and when n is
2 n

large, =s .

Small Sample Confidence Interval For a Population Mean, .

x t s
, when n 30 and is unknown.
2 n

Like the standard normal distribution, the t-distribution is bell shaped and symmetrical about
zero. It is however more dispersed and its shape depends on the degrees of freedom, df = n 1.

Example 1. From a population of examinees in the college of Engineering, a sample of 28 scores

in Math 1A yielded an average score of 44.07 and a standard deviation of 8.97. Find a 99%
confidence interval to estimate the true mean score in Math 1A.

Solution

= 0.01 ( n 30 table Critical Values of the t-Distribution , t 0.005= 2.771 with df = 27

x t s
2 n .

8.97
44.07 27
2.771

44.07 4.78

We can assert with 99% confidence that the true mean score is from 39.29 to 48.85.

Single Sample: Estimating a Proportion

x
The true proportion can likewise be estimated using a point estimator ^p = as a
n

point estimate for the proportion p.

Large Sample Confidence Interval

If an interval estimate is preferred, the confidence interval for the true proportion p is
given as:

^p z
2 p^ q^
n

Example 2: A marketing analyst surveys a random sample of 90 cigarette smokers and find that
36 prefer the leading brand. At 90% confidence interval , estimate the true proportion of smokers
that prefer the leading brand.

Solution:
1
 36
=0.10 ^p= =0.40 z =1.96
90 2

One Sided Confidence Intervals

For example, a pollster for a candidate may be concerned only about the minimum
percentage of voters preferring his candidate. He may wish to estimate a specified degree of
confidence ( 1- , a percentage value beyond which his candidate will not fall lower. Since the

interval is now one-sided, the entire is confined to one tail, thus the notation
z for the

minimum z value or
z for the maximum z value.

Example 3. In the pollsters survey of 1000 voters, 320 prefer his candidate over the others. The
pollster can estimate with 99% confidence that the minimum proportion of voters who prefer his
candidate is:

^p z
2 p^ q^
n = 0.320 2.33
( 0.320 )(0.680)
1000
=0.285, thus, we can say with 99%

confidence that at least 28.5% of voters will vote for his candidate.

Determination of the Sample Size n for Estimating the Mean

If an estimate for the mean is the object of the study, n is determined based on the
confidence level ( 1- ) and the allowable error, e, specified by the researchers design of the
study, using the formula:
2

[]
z
2
n=
e

Example 4.An agriculturist wishes to estimate the mean yield in tons per hectare of palay in a
Central Luzon province. He wants to determine the sample size to collect such that the sample
mean obtained is correct within 0.25 tons of the true mean yield per hectare for the province at a
99% confidence level. In other words, the probability is 0.99 that the estimate will not be in error
by more than 0.25 tons. Previous studies have determined to be 1.5 tons. The sample size

required is:
2

[]
z 2

n=
e
2
= [ ( 2.58)(1.5)
0.25 ] = 239.63 240 hectares.

Determination of the Sample Size n for estimating the proportion

2
z pq
n=
( ) 2
, if an estimate for p is not available, it is assumed to be equal to 0.50,
e2

thus, the formula reduces to:

[]
z
2
n=
2e

2
Example 5. Campaign managers of a senatorial candidate wish to estimate the true proportion of
all voters who prefer their candidate over two others in the field. They want this estimate of the
proportion to be correct within 2% of the true proportion with 95% confidence. The required
sample n is:
2

n= [ 1.96
2(0.02) ] = 2401 respondents.

Two Samples Estimating the Difference Between Two Population Means

12 (Comparing two
or more populations using their parameters or estimates thereof. Such comparison will take the
form of estimating the difference between the parameters of two populations. It is often of
interest whether the difference is greater than zero or some hypothesized value, or that there is
no difference between the two population parameters.

Confidence Interval for

12 , s known

x 1x 2 z
2 12 22
+
n1 n 2 when s in unknown and n is large, 1 s 1 2 s 2 .

Example 6. A sample of 57 readers of PDI had an average age of 29.63 years with a standard
deviation of 11.85 years. A sample of 90 readers of MB yields an average of 36.17 with a
standard deviation of 11.85 years. Estimate the difference between the true mean ages of the
two prints using a 90% confidence interval.

Solution:

Let
x 1=mean age of MB readers

x 2=mean age of PDI readers

( 36.17 29.63 ) 1.96

16.262 11.852
90
+
57 , with 90% confidence , the mean age of readers of MB

exceeds the mean age of PDI readers by 1.98 to 11.09.

Confidence Interval for

12 , s unknown and small sample sizes

x 1x 2 t
2 p2 p2
+
n1 n2

2 2
2 2 ( n11 ) s 1 + ( n21 ) s2
Where qp Is a pooled variance computed as, qp = , df =
n1 +n22

n1 +n22.

Example 7. In 2014, fifteen random readings of bank lending rates in Manila averaged 23% per
annum with a standard deviation of 1%. Fifteen random readings in Bangkok averaged 13% with
a standard deviation of 0.5%. Find the 90% confidence interval for the difference between the
true mean lending rates in Manila and Bangkok in 2014.

Solution:

3
 t =1.701with df 15+152=28.
2

( 14 ) (1)2+ ( 14 ) (0.5)2
qp 2 = = 0.625
28

x 1x 2 t
2 p2 p2
+
n1 n2

23-13 1.701
0.625 0.625
15
+
15 = 9.51 to 10.49, we are 90% certain that the true

mean lending rates in Manila in 2014, exceeded that of Bangkok by an amount between 9.51%
to 10.49%.

Two Samples: Estimating the Difference Between Population Proportions

Confidence Interval for

p1 - p2

p1 p2 z
2 ^p 1 q^ 2 ^p 2 q^ 2
n1
+
n2

Example 8. Let us assume that National Literacy rates ( the proportion of literate in a population)
are estimated using ^p

From random samples of 1000 persons over 10 years old. In the Philippines, in a random sample
of 1000, 935 are considered literate. In Singapore, a random sample of 1000 yields 907 literate.
Estimate the difference in literacy rates using 90% confidence intervals.

Solution:

( 0.935 0.907) 1.645 ( 0.012 )=0.00826 0.04774, with 90% confidence the difference in
the proportions literate is between 0.83% to 0.477%.

Single Sample: Estimating the Variance

2
If the sample variance, s , is used as a point estimate for the population variance

2 , s 2 , is called an estimator of 2 . The confidence interval can likewise be constructed as:

S S
< <
Z Z
2 2 , when n 30
1+ 1
2 n 2n

When n is small, an interval estimate of 2 can be established using the chi-squared

statistic, X2.

( n1 ) s 2 ( n1 ) s 2
2 2 < X2
The confidence interval of when n is small is X2 X2 , where 2
1
2 2

leaving an area of 2

4
 X2

to the right and 1
2 leaving an area of 1- 2 to the right are X2 with df = n-1.

Example 9. From example 6, a sample of 57 readers of PDI had an average of 29.63 years with a
standard deviation of 11.85 years. Find a 95% confidence interval to estimate the standard
deviation of the population readers.

Solution:

S 11.85
Z 11.85
1.96
2 = 1 = 1 0.184 , we can say with 95% confidence interval that
1 2(57)
2n

10.01 <14.52 years.

Example 10. A sample of 28 scores in Math 1A yielded an average of 44.07 with a standard
deviation of 8.97 points. Find the 99% confidence interval to estimate the standard deviation of
the population of examinees being sampled. Assume that the population is nearly normally
distributed.

Solution:

df = 28-1 =27

( n1 ) s 2 2
( n1 ) s 2 27 (8.97)2 2 27 (8.97)2
< = < < , 6.61 <13.56 points .
X 20.005 X 20.995 49.64 11.81

Name:
_______________________________________

Student Number:
______________________________

Exercises:

Find a 95% confidence interval for a

population mean for these values.

1. n =40, x = 12.4, s = 1.32

3. n =18, x = 15, s = 6.02

2. n =125, x = 442, s = 8.4

5
 6. = 0.1 , n = 36, x = 44, s2 = 15

4. n =24, x = 48, s = 7.05

7. = 0.5 , n = 65, x = 28, s2 = 4.4

5. n =15, x = 18.8, s = 4.08

8. = 0.10 , n = 6, x = 22, s2 = 11

Name:
_______________________________________

Find a ( 1- ) 100% confidence interval

for a population mean for these values:

6
 9. = 0.05 , n = 28, x = 2.14, s2 = 1.2

12.95%

10. = 0.1 , n = 16, x = 5.15, s2 = 4.2

13.99% confidence limits for the

proportion of heads which would be
obtained in an unlimited number of
tosses of the coin.

Student Number:
______________________________
14.A scientist interested in the monitoring
In 50 tosses of a coin, 30 heads were of chemical contaminants in food and
obtained. Find: thereby the accumulation of
contaminants in food and thereby the
11.90% accumulation of contaminants in
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 human diets, selected a random residents in the developing section and 100
sample of n=50 male adults. It was residents from the other parts of the city
found that the average daily intake of were asked whether they plan to vote for the
dairy products was 756 grams per proposal. The results are tabulated below:
day with a standard deviation of 35
grams per day. Use this sample Developing Sect
Sample size 50
information to construct a 95% and
No. favoring the 38
99% confidence interval for the mean
proposal
daily intake of dairy products for men. Proportion favoring the 0.76
proposal

15.Estimate the difference in the two

population proportion favoring the
bond proposal with 99% confidence
interval.

Student Number:
______________________________ 16.If both samples were pooled into one
sample of size n=150 with 103 in
A bond for school construction will be
favor of the proposal, provide a point
submitted to the voters at the next municipal
estimate of the population of the city
election. A major proportion of the money
residents who will vote for the bond
derived from the this bond issue will be used
proposal. What is the margin of error?
to build schools in rapidly developing section
of the city, and the remainder will be used to
renovate and update school building in the
rest of the city. To assess the viability of the
bond proposal, a random sample of 50

8
Student Number:
______________________________

17.In a random sample of 400 female and A sample of 10 measurement of the length of
600 male college students who a chip gave a mean of 2.36 cm and a
frequent interne cafes, 100 female and standard deviation of 0.06 cm. Find:
300 male college students indicated
18.95%
they like playing internet games.
Construct a 99% confidence limits for
the difference in proportions of all
female and male students who
frequent internet cafes.

9
 19.99%

Student Number:
______________________________
21.99% confidence limits for the
A sample of 100 brands A cell phone battery difference of the mean lifetimes of the
showed a mean life of 1500 hours and a populations of brands A and B.
standard deviation of 115 hours. A sample of
200 brand B cell phone battery showed a
mean life of 1200 hours and a standard
deviation of 110 hours. Find:

20.95% confidence limits for the

difference of the mean lifetimes of the
populations of brands A and B.

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